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I'VE NEVER BEEN A BIG TOUTER AS I BELIEVE THEY ARE ALL SCAMMERS. THE WAY I HANDICAPP IS THAT I TELL YOU EVERYTHING I KNOW ABOUT A CERTAIN SELECTION AND I ALLOW THE PERSON TO MAKE HIS OWN MIND UP ABOUT IT. I PLAY EVERYTHING THAT I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY, AND TO DATE I HAVE NEVER HAD A LOSING SEASON AFTER FIVE YEARS OF HANDICAPPING. LAST WEEK I WENT AN IMPRESSIVE 12-4 OVERALL HIGHLIGHTED BY GOING 6-1 IN THE NFL!
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HOUSTON (4 - 0) at MIAMI (1 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/30/2006 6:00 PM
Analysis
I had to think long and hard about this game for one reason only…I have never (in my handicapping career) went against a 100% negative trend. The trend I am referring to is Miami’s 0-9 ATS records in games played coming of their bye week. Well I guess there has to be first time for everything, so we are going to nevertheless to back Miami on Saturday. After playing 3 straight home games, Houston goes on the road against an ANGRY bunch of Hurricanes. Miami has had two weeks to sit and stew about its 31-7 loss at Louisville. Houston (4-0 SU & 2-1 ATS), an surprising undefeated team coming into this contest, has a talented offense behind senior quarterback Kevin Kolb, that is averaging 38 points and 312 yards passing. Lets be honest with ourselves though…they haven't been tested much either, as their wins came against Rice (barely), Tulane, Grambling State and most recently Oklahoma State. In their most recent win, Kolb threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns to propel Houston to the 34-25 win over Oklahoma State. Kolb, who is the active career leader in Division I-A completions, passing yards and total offense, was 21 of 28 and had touchdown passes of 42, 33, 27 and 7 yards. Meanwhile, Miami (1-2 SU & 0-2 ATS) lost its big showdowns with Florida State and Louisville, struggling badly on offense. By scoring just 17 points in the two losses, they have now fallen out of the top-25 for the first time in 107 weeks. Junior QB Kyle Wright (one TD, one INT) leads the erratic offense and Miami head coach Larry Coker is under fire, getting out coached in 2 of 3 games. Miami’s offensive woes have continued, as the Hurricanes are 72nd nationally in scoring offense with an average of 22.6 points per game. Miami is 53rd in passing offense (211.3 yards) and 60th in rushing (135).
Houston we have a problem! A big problem! Simply put, this is a situational nightmare for the visiting Cougars who will now have to play a very prideful Miami team that has now had two weeks to stew, while taking on constant criticism. They have gotten a ton of negative publicity for their 1-2 start as well as their 1-2 finish last year and just when nobody and their mother wants them, we are going to step in here and back the Hurricanes. Often overlooked is the fact that their two losses were against top-15 teams (both with stifling defenses) so its not like they played teams that are not some of the best in the country! This week there will be a significant drop-off in terms of speed and talent as nobody should ever confuse Houston with the likes of Florida State or Louisville, so Miami should be able to put it together against this small Houston defense. The Houston defense allowed 450 yards to Oklahoma State last week and they will struggle to stop Miami this week. Eight of the last ten Hurricanes' wins have been by 18 points or more, so it isn't like they are just barely winning games when they are favored. Miami's problems have come when they have faced stellar competition that has exposed their recent offensive problems. Houston has also had a miserable time when stepping up in class, losing 38-24 at home to Oregon in 2005, and losing 63-13 at Oklahoma and 65-27 to Louisville two years ago. In those contests, Houston gave up over 500 yards. Miami will get the offense on track this week and get a nice win and cover over the Cougars. The fact that Miami players and couches have vowed to return to the top 25 before seasons end cements this selection. Blowout!
Verdict: Miami Fl 42, Houston 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MIAMI -16.5
NAVY (3 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/30/2006 12:00 PM
Analysis
Neither of these clubs are pleased with what they did last week. Navy (3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS) was lucky to escape with a 21-20 win over Division I-AA Massachusetts after fumbling seven times, losing four, and throwing an interception. That poor play caught up with them last week when I released a rated selection on Tulsa who beat Navy 24-23. They lost on a blocked an extra-point attempt on the final play! Reggie Campbell and senior QB Brian Hampton lead this devastating ground game. Navy had 368 rushing yards in a win at Stanford, then had 283 against Tulsa. Navy relies almost exclusively on the run in its option offense, and is loaded with speed. Meanwhile, UConn (2-1 SU & ATS) also has a strong ground game, behind senior running back Terry Caulley. Caulley came back from an injury and ran for 155 yards as UConn won 14-7 at Indiana Saturday. UConn's defense was bludgeoned by Division 1-AA Rhode Island in the opener giving up 198 rush yards, and the Uconn kids should have all sorts of trouble on Saturday as Navy is tougher (and much faster) to defend! Its probably going to far by saying that Navy is in a different class the Connecticut, but I can confidently say they are most certainly on a different level then the huskies right now. Navy has succeeded against a lot of different kinds of opponent and prey on one-dimensional offenses. With a struggling passing game Connecticut certainly qualifies as a one-dimensional offense right now. From a technical standpoint Navy simply dominates. Although that have struggled at home lately (Navy has failed to cover three straight in Annapolis), the Middies are 21-7 against the number in the Paul Johnson era when they take to the road. Navy is also a solid 13-2 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road chances overall. With UConn's offense tripping over itself (Huskies have gone nine lined games in a row without scoring 28), the Middies have an excellent chance to cover here. Navy is 41-10 in its last 51 road games when allowing less than 28. Jose, can you see!
Verdict: Navy 24, Connecticut 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NAVY +2.5
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HOUSTON (4 - 0) at MIAMI (1 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/30/2006 6:00 PM
Analysis
I had to think long and hard about this game for one reason only…I have never (in my handicapping career) went against a 100% negative trend. The trend I am referring to is Miami’s 0-9 ATS records in games played coming of their bye week. Well I guess there has to be first time for everything, so we are going to nevertheless to back Miami on Saturday. After playing 3 straight home games, Houston goes on the road against an ANGRY bunch of Hurricanes. Miami has had two weeks to sit and stew about its 31-7 loss at Louisville. Houston (4-0 SU & 2-1 ATS), an surprising undefeated team coming into this contest, has a talented offense behind senior quarterback Kevin Kolb, that is averaging 38 points and 312 yards passing. Lets be honest with ourselves though…they haven't been tested much either, as their wins came against Rice (barely), Tulane, Grambling State and most recently Oklahoma State. In their most recent win, Kolb threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns to propel Houston to the 34-25 win over Oklahoma State. Kolb, who is the active career leader in Division I-A completions, passing yards and total offense, was 21 of 28 and had touchdown passes of 42, 33, 27 and 7 yards. Meanwhile, Miami (1-2 SU & 0-2 ATS) lost its big showdowns with Florida State and Louisville, struggling badly on offense. By scoring just 17 points in the two losses, they have now fallen out of the top-25 for the first time in 107 weeks. Junior QB Kyle Wright (one TD, one INT) leads the erratic offense and Miami head coach Larry Coker is under fire, getting out coached in 2 of 3 games. Miami’s offensive woes have continued, as the Hurricanes are 72nd nationally in scoring offense with an average of 22.6 points per game. Miami is 53rd in passing offense (211.3 yards) and 60th in rushing (135).
Houston we have a problem! A big problem! Simply put, this is a situational nightmare for the visiting Cougars who will now have to play a very prideful Miami team that has now had two weeks to stew, while taking on constant criticism. They have gotten a ton of negative publicity for their 1-2 start as well as their 1-2 finish last year and just when nobody and their mother wants them, we are going to step in here and back the Hurricanes. Often overlooked is the fact that their two losses were against top-15 teams (both with stifling defenses) so its not like they played teams that are not some of the best in the country! This week there will be a significant drop-off in terms of speed and talent as nobody should ever confuse Houston with the likes of Florida State or Louisville, so Miami should be able to put it together against this small Houston defense. The Houston defense allowed 450 yards to Oklahoma State last week and they will struggle to stop Miami this week. Eight of the last ten Hurricanes' wins have been by 18 points or more, so it isn't like they are just barely winning games when they are favored. Miami's problems have come when they have faced stellar competition that has exposed their recent offensive problems. Houston has also had a miserable time when stepping up in class, losing 38-24 at home to Oregon in 2005, and losing 63-13 at Oklahoma and 65-27 to Louisville two years ago. In those contests, Houston gave up over 500 yards. Miami will get the offense on track this week and get a nice win and cover over the Cougars. The fact that Miami players and couches have vowed to return to the top 25 before seasons end cements this selection. Blowout!
Verdict: Miami Fl 42, Houston 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MIAMI -16.5
NAVY (3 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 9/30/2006 12:00 PM
Analysis
Neither of these clubs are pleased with what they did last week. Navy (3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS) was lucky to escape with a 21-20 win over Division I-AA Massachusetts after fumbling seven times, losing four, and throwing an interception. That poor play caught up with them last week when I released a rated selection on Tulsa who beat Navy 24-23. They lost on a blocked an extra-point attempt on the final play! Reggie Campbell and senior QB Brian Hampton lead this devastating ground game. Navy had 368 rushing yards in a win at Stanford, then had 283 against Tulsa. Navy relies almost exclusively on the run in its option offense, and is loaded with speed. Meanwhile, UConn (2-1 SU & ATS) also has a strong ground game, behind senior running back Terry Caulley. Caulley came back from an injury and ran for 155 yards as UConn won 14-7 at Indiana Saturday. UConn's defense was bludgeoned by Division 1-AA Rhode Island in the opener giving up 198 rush yards, and the Uconn kids should have all sorts of trouble on Saturday as Navy is tougher (and much faster) to defend! Its probably going to far by saying that Navy is in a different class the Connecticut, but I can confidently say they are most certainly on a different level then the huskies right now. Navy has succeeded against a lot of different kinds of opponent and prey on one-dimensional offenses. With a struggling passing game Connecticut certainly qualifies as a one-dimensional offense right now. From a technical standpoint Navy simply dominates. Although that have struggled at home lately (Navy has failed to cover three straight in Annapolis), the Middies are 21-7 against the number in the Paul Johnson era when they take to the road. Navy is also a solid 13-2 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road chances overall. With UConn's offense tripping over itself (Huskies have gone nine lined games in a row without scoring 28), the Middies have an excellent chance to cover here. Navy is 41-10 in its last 51 road games when allowing less than 28. Jose, can you see!
Verdict: Navy 24, Connecticut 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NAVY +2.5
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