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MODS: THIS MESSAGE WAS PRE-APPROVED BY MONTE SO PLEASE CONSULT HIM BEFORE DELETING.
THANKS FOR MONTE FOR LETTING ME POST THIS AGAIN. TAKING REQUESTS FOR THE 2006 FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER PACKAGE. THIS IS A COST SHARING PROGRAM (I AM NOT A TOUT) AND THE PACKAGE INCLUDES WELL OVER $2200 (16 NEWSLETTERS) IN INFORMATION AND LASTS ABOUT 22 WEEKS. IN ADDITION THOSE WHO SUPPORT THE PACKAGE WILL GET AS A BONUS ALL OF MY PLAYS THAT I DO NOT RELEASE ON THE FORUM.
IF YOUR INTERESTED IN A TWO WEEK FREE TRIAL TO SEE WHAT THIS IS ALL ABOUT SEND ME AN EMAIL TO [email protected] AND I WILL PUT YOU ON THE LIST. THE COST FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON IS ONLY $160-$200 DEPENDING ON WHICH PACKAGE YOU SELECT. I WILL NEVER SPAM YOU AFTER THE TWO WEEKS ARE OVER.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HELLO EVERYBODY AND WELCOME TO THE 2006 FOOTBALL SEASON. HOPE EVERYBODY IS WELL RESTED FOR THIS YEAR AND READY TO MAKE SOME MONEY. FOR THOSE NEWCOMERS I HAVE BEEN HANDICAPPING FOOTBALL FOR THE PAST 5 YEARS AND TO DATE HAVE NEVER HAD A LOSING SEASON. FOOTBALL IS MY FAVORITE SPORT I HANDICAP AND SPEND CLOSE TO 35 HOURS EACH AND EVERY WEEK. I PLAY EVERY GAME WITH MY OWN MONEY THAT I RELEASE SO IF YOU LOSE I LOSE AND I DO NOT LIKE TO LOSE. AS ALWAYS, BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
5* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 5 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
4* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
3* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF THURSDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* MINNESOTA -15.5 WON
1* UTEP +2.5 WON
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* TENNESSEE Added
1* NORTH CAROLINA Added
1* NAVY -11 Added
1* SYRACUSE/WAKE FOREST UNDER 45 Added
1* ARKANSAS STATE Added
Opinions: SYRACUSE +14
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CALIFORNIA (8 - 4) at TENNESSEE (5 - 6)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 5:30 PM
Analysis
What a dynamite opening matchup! Head coach Phillip Fulmer, is banking on a talented squad to create a winning chemistry, has challenged the Tennessee Vols to make every moment count as they head for the 2006 season-opener against California. The Vols' long-standing status as one of the nation's elite football powers took a poke to the midsection last fall in an uncharacteristically dreary season that left the team home for the holidays for the first time since 1988. With the team's 5-6 record banishing it from the list of bowl eligibles, Tennessee had more than enough time to analyze what went wrong in 2005. It was a season that left Vols loyalists, including the demanding Fulmer, looking for vast improvement. But rather than separate the good from the bad, Fulmer called for a rededication by all parties toward achieving the Vols' customary goals, which start with a drive for the Eastern Division championship of the Southeastern Conference. It should be noted that Tennessee lost 11 starters (five offense and six defense) from a year ago which could hurt a defense that ranked second in the nation last year against the run. Nevertheless, defensive coordinator John Chavis anticipates another strong performance by his horses. “The defense played well enough to win,” was a frequently heard commentary among fans who watched in frustration as the Vols dropped five of their last seven games. Offensively, the Vols never achieved the consistent results that would have made the team a big winner. David Cutcliffe, who held the coordinator's portfolio before heading to Ole Miss as head coach in 1999, has rejoined his longtime friend, Phillip Fulmer. The obvious priority is for Cutcliffe, returned as coordinator, to shake up the offense, shuffle personnel, adopt and discard plays and formations, do whatever it takes to remold Tennessee into a juggernaut to be greatly feared. In order to do that they will need to get more out of Junior QB Erik Ainge (5 TDs, 7 INTs) was admitting awful last season. Nevertheless, reports out of camp are that he looks sharp and the entire offensive playbook has been re-written by the aforementioned Cutcliffe, who likes to pass the football.
Meanwhile, all the talk in Berkeley is about a pre-season Top 10 ranking and a shot at the Pac-10 crown. Well this is where I step and tell you that its just talk and their perception of how good this team is completely different then reality. Cal’s QB situation was plagued by inconsistency last year and remains unstable. Now granted, California head coach Jeff Tedford has gained a reputation as a quarterback “guru”, but the reputation will be put to an extreme test this weekend as the Bears will have to go with a new quarterback in a hostile environment….never a good spot to be in. Cal’s offensive line is also a question mark, with only two starters returning. To make matters even worse, Cal installed a new spread offense this year, (oh no) so I also don’t expect that to be firing on all cylinders early in the season. Cal boasts a fast and athletic defense, but one that should be susceptible to a physical offensive opponent…like Tennessee. Simply put, this is an ideal spot to side with a more talented and underrated SEC squad. Look for the Volunteers will come out with passion and authority against the Bears. Our only concern is the fact that over the last two years Tennessee is just 2-12 ATS at home, but I couldn’t find one spot where they were a home underdog and didn’t cover. Take the points on this barking home dog.
Saturday’s Forecast:: California 17, Tennessee 27
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TENNESSEE +2.5
RUTGERS (7 - 5) at N CAROLINA (5 - 6)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 3:30 PM
Analysis
The Scarlet Knights are coming off one of the best seasons in school history in 2005 after finishing the year 7-5 overall and 4-3 (third place) in the BIG EAST. Rutgers capped the season off with a trip to the Insight Bowl, the team’s first bowl appearance in 27 seasons. Head coach Greg Schiano's team had a dynamite offense, averaging 28.7 points, 162 yards rushing and 234 yards passing per game. Many Rutgers backers will immediately point to the fact that Rutgers returns 58 of 85 scholarship players (14 starters) who have three or four years of eligibility remaining in 2006, including two-time All-America fullback and Heisman Trophy candidate Brian Leonard, BIG EAST Special Teams Player of the Year Willie Foster, two-time All-BIG EAST tight end Clark Harris and freshmen All-Americans Ray Rice and Courtney Greene. However, gone from last years team are a number of outstanding players who Rutgers fans had grown accustomed to cheering for, including record-setting quarterback Ryan Hart, All-BIG EAST wide receiver Tres Moses, and All-American DE Ryan Neill. Rutgers will be starting Sophomore Mike Teel at quarterback, who was extremely erratic with 2 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Given the above, on paper Rutgers looks like the obvious choice in this contest (Rutgers was bowl bound last season, while North Carolina had another sub par season in 2005 with its 5-6 record) but I completely disagree as North Carolina own many fundamental matchup advantages over this Rutgers squad. Although the Scarlet Knights return 14 starters this season, and the Tar Heels return just 12, N.C. head coach John Bunting has a new offensive coordinator and a program full of his recruits. Bunting is expecting good things from a team that played the nation's toughest schedule last year, which is what in my opinion will be the difference between these programs. Although Rutgers had the better record in 2005, but they also played in a very weak Big East conference, while North Carolina beat Boston College, Utah, Virginia and NC State last season. As stated above, North Carolina has a new offensive look, which will include mobile QB Joe Dailey (a Nebraska transfer), and they still have an ace in senior tailback Ronnie McGill. Admitting, the success of the Tar Heel offense is a big question mark this season but it their defense that will win this game. The Tar Heels return seven starters to their defensive line rotation, which gives them a great chance to improve upon their strong statistical numbers of last season. As an inexperienced group last season, the defensive line recorded 49 tackles, 19.5 for loss and nine sacks. The line was part of the unit which limited opponents to just 138 rushing yards per game on 3.5 per carry, and again this was against the “elite” teams of the ACC which is impressive in and of itself. Head coach John Bunting also adds a very highly touted red-shirt freshman to the mix here as 6-foot-4, 330-pound Cam Thomas who is quietly being projected as a rising force at the defensive tackle position. Although I cannot help but respect what Greg Schiano has done in turning around the Rutgers' program, they are getting too much credit on the road. Take the Tar Heels at home this Saturday. Oh by the way, take solace in the fact that Carolina is 8-4 over the last two seasons in Kenan Stadium and has won four of the last five at home.
Saturday’s Forecast: Rutgers 14, No Carolina 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NORTH CAROLINA -4.5
E CAROLINA (5 - 6) at NAVY (8 - 4)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 5:30 PM
Analysis
Simply put…total Mismatch here! Granted East Carolina is an up and coming program under coach Skip Holtz, who really improved things last season.. The Pirates played hard for the new coach, going 5-6 overall and a strong 8-3 against the spread. Most impressive under Holtz was the improvement of the offense, averaging 24 points, 137 yards rushing, and 256 yards passing per game. The passing attack is strong behind senior QB James Pinkney (14 TDs and 8 INTs.) But for this game, you need defense when facing the lightening-quick option backfield of Navy, and East Carolina doesn't have it. The Pirates surrendered 28.8 points per game allowed and 217 yards rushing per game, a whopping 4.8 yards per carry! To make matters only worse, this East Carolina team does not return a single starting LB, the key line of defense vs. this option. Meanwhile, Navy Head Coach Paul Johnson has done a magnificent job as he begins his fifth season and they have 17 starters back, including his best RB and OL corps, and senior Brian Hampton is more than ready to take over the QB responsibilities. That means the terrific 18-6 run of the past two seasons picks right up, and it could have been even better if those young players had just a little more experience last year, with early season losses to Maryland and Stanford by three points each preventing a 10-2 campaign. Navy led the nation in rushing in 2005 (319 yards rushing per game, 5.7 yards per carry), and they have speed all over the backfield. New QB in senior Brian Hampton makes his debut, but don't ignore the speed of fullback junior Adam Ballard (668 yards, 6.1 yards per carry) and speedy 5-foot-6 junior Reggie Campbell (514 yards, a whopping 9 yards per carry!) Campbell tied an NCAA bowl game record with 5 TDs against Colorado State. Navy is 23-9-1 ATS the last three seasons and their 13-5 ATS run as a favorite tells us that they have no problems piling on the points.
Saturday’s Forecast: Navy 44, E Carolina 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NAVY -11
SYRACUSE (1 - 10) at WAKE FOREST (4 - 7)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 6:30 PM
Analysis
Rarely do I ever double side a game in my gambling career, but this one looks intriguing. All the talk this week has been about Wake Forest and how much their team is “vastly improved” and how they are eager to show that improvement. As always, I will give credit where credit is due and say that this run-oriented Wake Forest has been competitive under 6th-year Demon Deacons Head Coach Jim Grobe. They averaged 24.5 points, 197.5 yards rushing last season. Junior QB Ben Wauk leads the offense, and suffered through a poor sophomore season with only one TD and 6 picks. The backfield has great depth with RB Micah Andrews (621 yards, 5.6 ypc) and junior RB De'Angelo Bryant. One the defensive side of the ball, the Deacons are tied for the largest number of returning defensive starters (10) in the nation.This is a good thing, because their offense is known for, and should continue to be known for, going on long drives and coming away empty. Syracuse, on the other hand comes into this contest off the school's worst season in 113 years, at 1-10 SU, 4-7 ATS. Greg Robinson's offense was horrendous last season, averaging 13.8 points and 150 yards passing. So I guess you can say with confidence that Robinson's West Coast offense was a bust. Senior quarterback Perry Patterson (6 TDs, 11 INTs, just 47% completions) is back, but he has little help at the skill positions. Up front Syracuse had problems allowing 187 yards rushing per contest, and that's what Wake Forest does best. As stated above, Wake Forest’s starting QB Mauk had only one touchdown pass and six interceptions last season and he won’t improve much simply by lining up in a shotgun, which is what they have planned for him more often. “I just want to be efficient, limit my turnovers and mistakes and manage the game,” Mauk said Tuesday. “If I can do that, we're going to win. We have a very good defense and good offensive skills guys.” “Game managers” are not the kind of QBs any bettor would want to be laying two scores with. Yes Syracuse’s offense is pretty weak. But with Mauk playing “not to lose,” this sets up as a classic field position game. When Wake punts, Syracuse’s return men will be either a kid who had a cast on his arm during the week, or a 5’4” walk-on named Max…Hugh? Syracuse’s second-season head coach is an ex-NFL and Texas defensive coordinator and for all the offensive woes, his defense has held up very nicely. Laying two scores with Wake vs. power-conference athletes is asking for trouble, and so is Wake’s 2-10 ATS mark in their last 12 games as a favorite.
Saturday’s Forecast: Syracuse 10, Wake Forest 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SYRACUSE/WAKE FOREST UNDER 45
OPINION SELECTION ON SYRACUSE +14
ARMY (4 - 7) at ARKANSAS ST (6 - 6)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 7:00 PM
Analysis
Very interesting match-up here and nobody’s going to have that warm fuzzy feeling in their stomach when I tell you what side I’m on in this one. Arkansas State head coach Steve Roberts will begin his fifth year at Arkansas State after leading the Indians to the Sun Belt Conference championship and New Orleans Bowl last year. Meanwhile, Army’s Bobby Ross begins his third season with the Black Knights and has established himself as one of the most respected coaches in the game. Ross likes the power running game, and last year's team averaged 172 yards rushing, 4.4 yards per carry, and upset both Akron and Air Force, with close losses to Iowa State and TCU. Army will feature eight returning starters on both offense and defense. The ground game will lead the way again as they return all five starters on the offensive line. However, that fact is a bit misleading as two of Army’s graduated offensive stars, QB Zac Dahman (holds 20 Army records) and 1000-yd. rusher Carlton Jones, will be difficult to replace. Defensively, the Cadets return eight starters, including All-East strong safety Caleb Campbell and every linebacker. All this certainly does not sound good especially considering that ASU was drubbed by 28 points at West Point in Army’s home finale last season.
Backers of this Army squad will also point out that the Indians have dropped their last 10 season openers and that ASU’s last season opening victory came in 1995 when it defeated Utah State 21-17 at Indian Stadium. Moreover, the ASU-Army game also marks the first time for the Indians to play on the new ProGreen artificial turf, the same exact surface that Army has in its home field. The theory behind that, is that Army is basically playing a home contest. For arguments sake, I will not dispute that Army is an experienced and relatively improving team, but I will point out several key factors that point to Arkansas State pulling the upset. As stated above, two of Army’s graduated offensive stars, QB Zac Dahman (holds 20 Army records) and 1000-yd. rusher Carlton Jones, will be difficult to replace. Dahman’s absence will especially be felt early in the season as Junior David Pevoto adjusts to fulltime duty. The return of 255-pound Arkansas State MLB Josh Williams from suspension will make a huge difference to the Indian defense that had trouble stopping the run last season. Indian Stadium has been a major plus to the Arkansas State fortunes, as 13-5 spread mark would attest (9-2 as home dog). Army has never been comfortable laying points on the road, and, indeed, the Black Knights haven’t covered as a visiting favorite since the end of the 1996 season. Arkansas State doesn’t play again at home for more than a month, so expect Indian HC Roberts to have his ASU side ready for a war it what will amount to be a very close contest.
Projected Score: Army 17, Arkansas St 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARKANSAS STATE +6
I am also know as Ethan Law at www.pregame.com
THANKS FOR MONTE FOR LETTING ME POST THIS AGAIN. TAKING REQUESTS FOR THE 2006 FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER PACKAGE. THIS IS A COST SHARING PROGRAM (I AM NOT A TOUT) AND THE PACKAGE INCLUDES WELL OVER $2200 (16 NEWSLETTERS) IN INFORMATION AND LASTS ABOUT 22 WEEKS. IN ADDITION THOSE WHO SUPPORT THE PACKAGE WILL GET AS A BONUS ALL OF MY PLAYS THAT I DO NOT RELEASE ON THE FORUM.
IF YOUR INTERESTED IN A TWO WEEK FREE TRIAL TO SEE WHAT THIS IS ALL ABOUT SEND ME AN EMAIL TO [email protected] AND I WILL PUT YOU ON THE LIST. THE COST FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON IS ONLY $160-$200 DEPENDING ON WHICH PACKAGE YOU SELECT. I WILL NEVER SPAM YOU AFTER THE TWO WEEKS ARE OVER.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HELLO EVERYBODY AND WELCOME TO THE 2006 FOOTBALL SEASON. HOPE EVERYBODY IS WELL RESTED FOR THIS YEAR AND READY TO MAKE SOME MONEY. FOR THOSE NEWCOMERS I HAVE BEEN HANDICAPPING FOOTBALL FOR THE PAST 5 YEARS AND TO DATE HAVE NEVER HAD A LOSING SEASON. FOOTBALL IS MY FAVORITE SPORT I HANDICAP AND SPEND CLOSE TO 35 HOURS EACH AND EVERY WEEK. I PLAY EVERY GAME WITH MY OWN MONEY THAT I RELEASE SO IF YOU LOSE I LOSE AND I DO NOT LIKE TO LOSE. AS ALWAYS, BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
5* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 5 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
4* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
3* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF THURSDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* MINNESOTA -15.5 WON
1* UTEP +2.5 WON
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* TENNESSEE Added
1* NORTH CAROLINA Added
1* NAVY -11 Added
1* SYRACUSE/WAKE FOREST UNDER 45 Added
1* ARKANSAS STATE Added
Opinions: SYRACUSE +14
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CALIFORNIA (8 - 4) at TENNESSEE (5 - 6)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 5:30 PM
Analysis
What a dynamite opening matchup! Head coach Phillip Fulmer, is banking on a talented squad to create a winning chemistry, has challenged the Tennessee Vols to make every moment count as they head for the 2006 season-opener against California. The Vols' long-standing status as one of the nation's elite football powers took a poke to the midsection last fall in an uncharacteristically dreary season that left the team home for the holidays for the first time since 1988. With the team's 5-6 record banishing it from the list of bowl eligibles, Tennessee had more than enough time to analyze what went wrong in 2005. It was a season that left Vols loyalists, including the demanding Fulmer, looking for vast improvement. But rather than separate the good from the bad, Fulmer called for a rededication by all parties toward achieving the Vols' customary goals, which start with a drive for the Eastern Division championship of the Southeastern Conference. It should be noted that Tennessee lost 11 starters (five offense and six defense) from a year ago which could hurt a defense that ranked second in the nation last year against the run. Nevertheless, defensive coordinator John Chavis anticipates another strong performance by his horses. “The defense played well enough to win,” was a frequently heard commentary among fans who watched in frustration as the Vols dropped five of their last seven games. Offensively, the Vols never achieved the consistent results that would have made the team a big winner. David Cutcliffe, who held the coordinator's portfolio before heading to Ole Miss as head coach in 1999, has rejoined his longtime friend, Phillip Fulmer. The obvious priority is for Cutcliffe, returned as coordinator, to shake up the offense, shuffle personnel, adopt and discard plays and formations, do whatever it takes to remold Tennessee into a juggernaut to be greatly feared. In order to do that they will need to get more out of Junior QB Erik Ainge (5 TDs, 7 INTs) was admitting awful last season. Nevertheless, reports out of camp are that he looks sharp and the entire offensive playbook has been re-written by the aforementioned Cutcliffe, who likes to pass the football.
Meanwhile, all the talk in Berkeley is about a pre-season Top 10 ranking and a shot at the Pac-10 crown. Well this is where I step and tell you that its just talk and their perception of how good this team is completely different then reality. Cal’s QB situation was plagued by inconsistency last year and remains unstable. Now granted, California head coach Jeff Tedford has gained a reputation as a quarterback “guru”, but the reputation will be put to an extreme test this weekend as the Bears will have to go with a new quarterback in a hostile environment….never a good spot to be in. Cal’s offensive line is also a question mark, with only two starters returning. To make matters even worse, Cal installed a new spread offense this year, (oh no) so I also don’t expect that to be firing on all cylinders early in the season. Cal boasts a fast and athletic defense, but one that should be susceptible to a physical offensive opponent…like Tennessee. Simply put, this is an ideal spot to side with a more talented and underrated SEC squad. Look for the Volunteers will come out with passion and authority against the Bears. Our only concern is the fact that over the last two years Tennessee is just 2-12 ATS at home, but I couldn’t find one spot where they were a home underdog and didn’t cover. Take the points on this barking home dog.
Saturday’s Forecast:: California 17, Tennessee 27
PLAY 2* UNITS ON TENNESSEE +2.5
RUTGERS (7 - 5) at N CAROLINA (5 - 6)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 3:30 PM
Analysis
The Scarlet Knights are coming off one of the best seasons in school history in 2005 after finishing the year 7-5 overall and 4-3 (third place) in the BIG EAST. Rutgers capped the season off with a trip to the Insight Bowl, the team’s first bowl appearance in 27 seasons. Head coach Greg Schiano's team had a dynamite offense, averaging 28.7 points, 162 yards rushing and 234 yards passing per game. Many Rutgers backers will immediately point to the fact that Rutgers returns 58 of 85 scholarship players (14 starters) who have three or four years of eligibility remaining in 2006, including two-time All-America fullback and Heisman Trophy candidate Brian Leonard, BIG EAST Special Teams Player of the Year Willie Foster, two-time All-BIG EAST tight end Clark Harris and freshmen All-Americans Ray Rice and Courtney Greene. However, gone from last years team are a number of outstanding players who Rutgers fans had grown accustomed to cheering for, including record-setting quarterback Ryan Hart, All-BIG EAST wide receiver Tres Moses, and All-American DE Ryan Neill. Rutgers will be starting Sophomore Mike Teel at quarterback, who was extremely erratic with 2 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Given the above, on paper Rutgers looks like the obvious choice in this contest (Rutgers was bowl bound last season, while North Carolina had another sub par season in 2005 with its 5-6 record) but I completely disagree as North Carolina own many fundamental matchup advantages over this Rutgers squad. Although the Scarlet Knights return 14 starters this season, and the Tar Heels return just 12, N.C. head coach John Bunting has a new offensive coordinator and a program full of his recruits. Bunting is expecting good things from a team that played the nation's toughest schedule last year, which is what in my opinion will be the difference between these programs. Although Rutgers had the better record in 2005, but they also played in a very weak Big East conference, while North Carolina beat Boston College, Utah, Virginia and NC State last season. As stated above, North Carolina has a new offensive look, which will include mobile QB Joe Dailey (a Nebraska transfer), and they still have an ace in senior tailback Ronnie McGill. Admitting, the success of the Tar Heel offense is a big question mark this season but it their defense that will win this game. The Tar Heels return seven starters to their defensive line rotation, which gives them a great chance to improve upon their strong statistical numbers of last season. As an inexperienced group last season, the defensive line recorded 49 tackles, 19.5 for loss and nine sacks. The line was part of the unit which limited opponents to just 138 rushing yards per game on 3.5 per carry, and again this was against the “elite” teams of the ACC which is impressive in and of itself. Head coach John Bunting also adds a very highly touted red-shirt freshman to the mix here as 6-foot-4, 330-pound Cam Thomas who is quietly being projected as a rising force at the defensive tackle position. Although I cannot help but respect what Greg Schiano has done in turning around the Rutgers' program, they are getting too much credit on the road. Take the Tar Heels at home this Saturday. Oh by the way, take solace in the fact that Carolina is 8-4 over the last two seasons in Kenan Stadium and has won four of the last five at home.
Saturday’s Forecast: Rutgers 14, No Carolina 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NORTH CAROLINA -4.5
E CAROLINA (5 - 6) at NAVY (8 - 4)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 5:30 PM
Analysis
Simply put…total Mismatch here! Granted East Carolina is an up and coming program under coach Skip Holtz, who really improved things last season.. The Pirates played hard for the new coach, going 5-6 overall and a strong 8-3 against the spread. Most impressive under Holtz was the improvement of the offense, averaging 24 points, 137 yards rushing, and 256 yards passing per game. The passing attack is strong behind senior QB James Pinkney (14 TDs and 8 INTs.) But for this game, you need defense when facing the lightening-quick option backfield of Navy, and East Carolina doesn't have it. The Pirates surrendered 28.8 points per game allowed and 217 yards rushing per game, a whopping 4.8 yards per carry! To make matters only worse, this East Carolina team does not return a single starting LB, the key line of defense vs. this option. Meanwhile, Navy Head Coach Paul Johnson has done a magnificent job as he begins his fifth season and they have 17 starters back, including his best RB and OL corps, and senior Brian Hampton is more than ready to take over the QB responsibilities. That means the terrific 18-6 run of the past two seasons picks right up, and it could have been even better if those young players had just a little more experience last year, with early season losses to Maryland and Stanford by three points each preventing a 10-2 campaign. Navy led the nation in rushing in 2005 (319 yards rushing per game, 5.7 yards per carry), and they have speed all over the backfield. New QB in senior Brian Hampton makes his debut, but don't ignore the speed of fullback junior Adam Ballard (668 yards, 6.1 yards per carry) and speedy 5-foot-6 junior Reggie Campbell (514 yards, a whopping 9 yards per carry!) Campbell tied an NCAA bowl game record with 5 TDs against Colorado State. Navy is 23-9-1 ATS the last three seasons and their 13-5 ATS run as a favorite tells us that they have no problems piling on the points.
Saturday’s Forecast: Navy 44, E Carolina 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON NAVY -11
SYRACUSE (1 - 10) at WAKE FOREST (4 - 7)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 6:30 PM
Analysis
Rarely do I ever double side a game in my gambling career, but this one looks intriguing. All the talk this week has been about Wake Forest and how much their team is “vastly improved” and how they are eager to show that improvement. As always, I will give credit where credit is due and say that this run-oriented Wake Forest has been competitive under 6th-year Demon Deacons Head Coach Jim Grobe. They averaged 24.5 points, 197.5 yards rushing last season. Junior QB Ben Wauk leads the offense, and suffered through a poor sophomore season with only one TD and 6 picks. The backfield has great depth with RB Micah Andrews (621 yards, 5.6 ypc) and junior RB De'Angelo Bryant. One the defensive side of the ball, the Deacons are tied for the largest number of returning defensive starters (10) in the nation.This is a good thing, because their offense is known for, and should continue to be known for, going on long drives and coming away empty. Syracuse, on the other hand comes into this contest off the school's worst season in 113 years, at 1-10 SU, 4-7 ATS. Greg Robinson's offense was horrendous last season, averaging 13.8 points and 150 yards passing. So I guess you can say with confidence that Robinson's West Coast offense was a bust. Senior quarterback Perry Patterson (6 TDs, 11 INTs, just 47% completions) is back, but he has little help at the skill positions. Up front Syracuse had problems allowing 187 yards rushing per contest, and that's what Wake Forest does best. As stated above, Wake Forest’s starting QB Mauk had only one touchdown pass and six interceptions last season and he won’t improve much simply by lining up in a shotgun, which is what they have planned for him more often. “I just want to be efficient, limit my turnovers and mistakes and manage the game,” Mauk said Tuesday. “If I can do that, we're going to win. We have a very good defense and good offensive skills guys.” “Game managers” are not the kind of QBs any bettor would want to be laying two scores with. Yes Syracuse’s offense is pretty weak. But with Mauk playing “not to lose,” this sets up as a classic field position game. When Wake punts, Syracuse’s return men will be either a kid who had a cast on his arm during the week, or a 5’4” walk-on named Max…Hugh? Syracuse’s second-season head coach is an ex-NFL and Texas defensive coordinator and for all the offensive woes, his defense has held up very nicely. Laying two scores with Wake vs. power-conference athletes is asking for trouble, and so is Wake’s 2-10 ATS mark in their last 12 games as a favorite.
Saturday’s Forecast: Syracuse 10, Wake Forest 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SYRACUSE/WAKE FOREST UNDER 45
OPINION SELECTION ON SYRACUSE +14
ARMY (4 - 7) at ARKANSAS ST (6 - 6)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/2/2006 7:00 PM
Analysis
Very interesting match-up here and nobody’s going to have that warm fuzzy feeling in their stomach when I tell you what side I’m on in this one. Arkansas State head coach Steve Roberts will begin his fifth year at Arkansas State after leading the Indians to the Sun Belt Conference championship and New Orleans Bowl last year. Meanwhile, Army’s Bobby Ross begins his third season with the Black Knights and has established himself as one of the most respected coaches in the game. Ross likes the power running game, and last year's team averaged 172 yards rushing, 4.4 yards per carry, and upset both Akron and Air Force, with close losses to Iowa State and TCU. Army will feature eight returning starters on both offense and defense. The ground game will lead the way again as they return all five starters on the offensive line. However, that fact is a bit misleading as two of Army’s graduated offensive stars, QB Zac Dahman (holds 20 Army records) and 1000-yd. rusher Carlton Jones, will be difficult to replace. Defensively, the Cadets return eight starters, including All-East strong safety Caleb Campbell and every linebacker. All this certainly does not sound good especially considering that ASU was drubbed by 28 points at West Point in Army’s home finale last season.
Backers of this Army squad will also point out that the Indians have dropped their last 10 season openers and that ASU’s last season opening victory came in 1995 when it defeated Utah State 21-17 at Indian Stadium. Moreover, the ASU-Army game also marks the first time for the Indians to play on the new ProGreen artificial turf, the same exact surface that Army has in its home field. The theory behind that, is that Army is basically playing a home contest. For arguments sake, I will not dispute that Army is an experienced and relatively improving team, but I will point out several key factors that point to Arkansas State pulling the upset. As stated above, two of Army’s graduated offensive stars, QB Zac Dahman (holds 20 Army records) and 1000-yd. rusher Carlton Jones, will be difficult to replace. Dahman’s absence will especially be felt early in the season as Junior David Pevoto adjusts to fulltime duty. The return of 255-pound Arkansas State MLB Josh Williams from suspension will make a huge difference to the Indian defense that had trouble stopping the run last season. Indian Stadium has been a major plus to the Arkansas State fortunes, as 13-5 spread mark would attest (9-2 as home dog). Army has never been comfortable laying points on the road, and, indeed, the Black Knights haven’t covered as a visiting favorite since the end of the 1996 season. Arkansas State doesn’t play again at home for more than a month, so expect Indian HC Roberts to have his ASU side ready for a war it what will amount to be a very close contest.
Projected Score: Army 17, Arkansas St 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARKANSAS STATE +6
I am also know as Ethan Law at www.pregame.com