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CREAM OF THE CROP
San Francisco's Jason Schmidt returns as the reigning top starting pitcher, according to the '03 FLB Player Rater. While his top finish may have been somewhat of a surprise, nothing can match the number of eyebrows raised by Chicago White Sox SP Esteban Loaiza's fourth-place finish. Can Loaiza repeat last year's improbable success? As you can see by my rankings (right), I consider it unlikely. But I still give Loaiza some respect by placing him at No. 15. Here's a look back at the top 5 FLB hurlers of '03:
FLB '03 PLAYER RATER -- TOP 5 STARTERS
PLAYER WINS SO ERA WHIP PRV
Jason Schmidt, SF 17 208 2.34 0.95 7.57
Roy Halladay, Tor 22 204 3.25 1.07 7.39
Mark Prior, ChC 18 245 2.43 1.10 7.35
Esteban Loaiza, CWS 21 207 2.90 1.11 6.84
Pedro Martinez, Bos 14 206 2.22 1.04 5.79
BREAKOUT BUZZ
Who are the players poised to take their game to the next level? Well, these are the players that I'll be highlighting on my draft lists:
1. Josh Beckett, Fla: 2.54 ERA after break, including MVP postseason.
2. Johan Santana, Min -- Top 20 SP in '03. May see 10-12 more starts.
3. Rich Harden, Oak -- Unexpected wildness was likely rookie jitters.
5. Jake Peavy, SD -- High K rate, low hits, BAA after break was .216.
4. Brett Myers, Phi -- Fierce competitor, wicked curveball. Only 23.
BARGAIN BIN
When you're looking for later-round pitching, target these diamonds in the rough:
1. Freddy Garcia, Sea: Playing for FA contract. 1.97 ERA in Sept.
2. Adam Eaton, SD: Good K rate. Run support should improve
3. Jon Lieber, NYY: '01 20-game winner has health & rotation spot.
4. Tim Redding, Hou: 10 wins despite worst run support in NL.
5. Eric Milton, Phi: Good WHIP guy. Goes to solid Philly team.
YOUNG GUNS
It was quite a year for rookie arms in '03. Just look at the seasons turned in by Brandon Webb, Dontrelle Willis, Jerome Williams, Horacio Ramirez and Rich Harden.The '04 crop doesn't look quite as promising, but there are a few arms to track closely. Here's the best of the near-rookie crop:
1. Edwin Jackson, LA: Ace makeup. '03 debut was stellar.
2. Cliff Lee, Cle: Barely qualified as rook in '03. BAA was .220.
3. Matt Riley, Bal: Finally healthy, could be one of O's top SP.
4. Brandon Claussen, Cin: Bulldog with plus-slider. In Reds' rotation.
5. Angel Guzman, ChC: Can't-miss stud will be a hit if Juan Cruz fails.
Honorable Mention:
-- Zack Greinke, KC: 18 walks in 140 IP on Royals' farm in '03.
-- Doug Waechter, TB: Excellent make-up, strong ML debut in '03.
-- Merkin Valdez, SF: SanFran #1 prospect on Foppert-like fast track.
BUYER BEWARE
Based upon where they are likely to be drafted, these players are good candidates to disappoint fantasy owners:
1. Barry Zito, Oak: K #'s in decline. Tejada's exit hurts run support.
2. Russ Ortiz, Atl: w/o Sheff & Javy, 21 wins will be tough to repeat.
3. Dontrelle Willis, Fla: 5.24 ERA after break, including postseason
4. Ted Lilly, Tor: 4.71 road ERA is ominous sign for move to Toronto.
5. Tom Glavine, NYM: '04 should be better, but who cares? K rate is abysmal.
San Francisco's Jason Schmidt returns as the reigning top starting pitcher, according to the '03 FLB Player Rater. While his top finish may have been somewhat of a surprise, nothing can match the number of eyebrows raised by Chicago White Sox SP Esteban Loaiza's fourth-place finish. Can Loaiza repeat last year's improbable success? As you can see by my rankings (right), I consider it unlikely. But I still give Loaiza some respect by placing him at No. 15. Here's a look back at the top 5 FLB hurlers of '03:
FLB '03 PLAYER RATER -- TOP 5 STARTERS
PLAYER WINS SO ERA WHIP PRV
Jason Schmidt, SF 17 208 2.34 0.95 7.57
Roy Halladay, Tor 22 204 3.25 1.07 7.39
Mark Prior, ChC 18 245 2.43 1.10 7.35
Esteban Loaiza, CWS 21 207 2.90 1.11 6.84
Pedro Martinez, Bos 14 206 2.22 1.04 5.79
BREAKOUT BUZZ
Who are the players poised to take their game to the next level? Well, these are the players that I'll be highlighting on my draft lists:
1. Josh Beckett, Fla: 2.54 ERA after break, including MVP postseason.
2. Johan Santana, Min -- Top 20 SP in '03. May see 10-12 more starts.
3. Rich Harden, Oak -- Unexpected wildness was likely rookie jitters.
5. Jake Peavy, SD -- High K rate, low hits, BAA after break was .216.
4. Brett Myers, Phi -- Fierce competitor, wicked curveball. Only 23.
BARGAIN BIN
When you're looking for later-round pitching, target these diamonds in the rough:
1. Freddy Garcia, Sea: Playing for FA contract. 1.97 ERA in Sept.
2. Adam Eaton, SD: Good K rate. Run support should improve
3. Jon Lieber, NYY: '01 20-game winner has health & rotation spot.
4. Tim Redding, Hou: 10 wins despite worst run support in NL.
5. Eric Milton, Phi: Good WHIP guy. Goes to solid Philly team.
YOUNG GUNS
It was quite a year for rookie arms in '03. Just look at the seasons turned in by Brandon Webb, Dontrelle Willis, Jerome Williams, Horacio Ramirez and Rich Harden.The '04 crop doesn't look quite as promising, but there are a few arms to track closely. Here's the best of the near-rookie crop:
1. Edwin Jackson, LA: Ace makeup. '03 debut was stellar.
2. Cliff Lee, Cle: Barely qualified as rook in '03. BAA was .220.
3. Matt Riley, Bal: Finally healthy, could be one of O's top SP.
4. Brandon Claussen, Cin: Bulldog with plus-slider. In Reds' rotation.
5. Angel Guzman, ChC: Can't-miss stud will be a hit if Juan Cruz fails.
Honorable Mention:
-- Zack Greinke, KC: 18 walks in 140 IP on Royals' farm in '03.
-- Doug Waechter, TB: Excellent make-up, strong ML debut in '03.
-- Merkin Valdez, SF: SanFran #1 prospect on Foppert-like fast track.
BUYER BEWARE
Based upon where they are likely to be drafted, these players are good candidates to disappoint fantasy owners:
1. Barry Zito, Oak: K #'s in decline. Tejada's exit hurts run support.
2. Russ Ortiz, Atl: w/o Sheff & Javy, 21 wins will be tough to repeat.
3. Dontrelle Willis, Fla: 5.24 ERA after break, including postseason
4. Ted Lilly, Tor: 4.71 road ERA is ominous sign for move to Toronto.
5. Tom Glavine, NYM: '04 should be better, but who cares? K rate is abysmal.