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BIG NAMES CRASH OUT - DENVER NEW FAVS AT 15/8
Who’d have believed it – the reigning champions and the champions-elect
(for many) are out of the Super Bowl at the last-eight stage. Both had
opened the season as joint 6/1 favourites, but with the Pats dumped at
Denver, and the Colts’ heroics just falling short at home to Pittsburgh 24
hours later, the outright market has a brand new flavour to it. And, it’s
Denver who inherit favouritism after gaining home field advantage for the
AFC Championship game against Pittsburgh, ahead of Seattle, who host
awayday specialists Carolina. Both visitors are small handicap underdogs
here at bet365 – Pittsburgh +3, Carolina +3.5.
bet365 latest Super Bowl prices … Denver 15/8, Seattle 5/2, Pittsburgh
14/5, Carolina 15/4 (advised pre-season at 14/1!)
SUPER BOWL LINES SCRAMBLED - AFC NOW -3.5
The ramifications of the Colts being eliminated can also be seen in our
early Super Bowl XL line. Before Indy’s loss at the weekend, the AFC was as
high as -8.5 to beat the NFC in the final (-12.5 before their loss to San
Diego). The line would probably have been higher if the Colts had made it
to Detroit. Instead, the number is all the way down to -3.5 for the AFC
(the total is set at 46). As a result, if the Seahawks advance to Super
Bowl XL, early NFC futures bettors here at bet365, could find themselves
getting 8.5 points with the game day favourite, depending on how the AFC
title game shakes out.
bet365’s latest Super Bowl line ... NFC +3.5 / AFC -3.5
AFC TITLE - PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT DENVER BRONCOS
Live betting - Su Jan 21 – 3:00 pm EST/08:00 GMT
The Steelers may have the most momentum of any team left in the NFL
playoffs, after six straight victories. However, they could well run out of
gas here, and the Broncos look great value with bet365 at -3. After beating
the Bengals in Cincinnati and upsetting the Colts on Sunday, this could be
one game too many for the Steelers. They’re such a physical team, which
means they’re using up vast amounts of energy week in and week out. That
could well take a heavy toll at the business end of the season. Remember,
they’ve already lost four of five AFC championship games and one Super Bowl
under Bill Cowher.
But that’s not the only factor working in the Bronco’s favour. Pittsburgh
are 0-5 when they can’t get 100 yards rushing, and they’ll struggle to get
100 yards rushing at Denver. Then there's the Denver defense. Last week,
the Steelers got a quick 14 on the board, but they only ended up with 21.
You'd have to say that Denver are far superior defensively to Indy,
allowing just 12 ppg at home this season. Oh, did I mention home field
advantage!
Pick: Denver (-3.0) @ 10/11
NFC TITLE - CAROLINA PANTHERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Live betting - Su Jan 21 – 6:30pm EST/11:30 GMT
If the Panthers want to reach the Super Bowl, they’ll have to win their
fourth consecutive road game. However, we all know what the Panthers are
like on the road, and they are excellent value at +3.5 with bet365. Of
course, they’ll be without running back DeShaun Foster (broken ankle).
Without him they really are a one-man offense with Steve Smith – but what a
man! Last week, he helped the Panthers score 29 runs with a return of 219
yards on 12 receptions, TD’s of 58 and 39 yards, and 26 rushing yards for
good measure.
While Smith has come up big in the playoffs, so has QB Jake Delhomme, who’s
5-1 in his career in the postseason (4-0 on the road). While Smith is the
NFL’s best receiver this year, somebody has got to get it to him, and
Delhomme deserves some credit for that. The last time the two teams met,
the Seahawks posted a 23-17 victory over the Panthers here, but that was
last season. Last week, Seattle could only manage 20 points last week
against a decent Washington defense. Carolina's pass defense is almost
identical to Washington‘s, but their run defense is significantly better!
Pick: Carolina (+3.5) @ 10/11
BET IT LIVE WITH 365
What was remarkable about the Pittsburgh – Indy game was the fluctuating
prices on our ‘In-Play Console’. The Steelers started the game at +10, but
were bet down to -11 when they were leading 21-3. When the Colts closed to
21-18 the game was Pick’em, but when Colts QB Peyton Manning was sacked on
his own two-yard line the game looked over. However, a fumble by Jerome
Bettis allowed Indy’s Nick Harper to race off for what looked a
game-winning TD, only for him to be tackled by Ben Roethlisburger -
incredible! This weekend, we’ll have live ‘In-Play’ betting on both games,
of course, but don’t forget to check out our pre-game props too. There were
33 at the last count!
GET MORE BACK FOR HITTING YOUR PARLAYS
Hopefully, you haven’t got to this stage of the season without hitting a
parlay or two. If so, you’ll know all about our Parlay Bonus, which pays
out up to 50% more on successful football (and basketball) parlays on the
following 6 markets:
1. Point Spread
2. Game Total
3. First Half Point Spread
4. Second Half Point Spread
5. First Half Total
6. Second Half Total
A $50 parlay on this weekend’s Conference Final’s picks - Carolina +3.5
and Denver -3 - pays out $191.34, which includes a bet365 bonus of 5%.
Best of luck for this weekend!
Get in the game and be lucky
Nigel.