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WEEK 17 - RAMS BACKED DOWN TO 7.5…
Week 17 was a surprisingly busy one for betting, considering the amount of
fixtures that meant nothing. And, with nine favourites winning and
covering, the money certainly went the way of bet365 customers, with the
world and his dog wanting to be on Carolina (-4), and St Louis (+12.5),
against Atlanta and Dallas respectively. The latter had lost any hope of
qualifying by kick off, and that fact was not lost on our customers who
piled into the winning underdogs (line fell by 5 points). The bet365 Parlay
Bonus also took a hammering (up to 50% more every week), and for those of
you looking to play up your winnings this week, here’s my take on the best
bets for this weekend’s wild card games.
WILD CARD WEEKEND - END OF THE ROAD FOR HOME TEAMS?...
Up to last season, history had dictated that the majority of the road teams
may as well of stayed at home. In the nine seasons up to and including
2003/4, no more than one of the fifth and sixth seeds in each conference
managed to make it through the divisional round, but that all changed last
season, when three of the four road teams progressed. In fact, only Indy
justified their position as home favourites, and they were -10! This year’s
hottest favourites at bet365 are the Patriots (-8 from -7), but even
they’re not likely to have things all their own way against Jacksonville.
Saturday, 1/7: 8:00pm ET ABC
The Jags will get a massive break when (if) QB Byron Leftwich returns to
the team after being absent since November. Not that his replacement, David
Garrard, has been bad, it’s just that Leftwich is better, and he’s got to
be worth a couple of points at least to the line. However, he’s bound to be
rusty, and it’s going to be tough coming back at Foxboro in January.
Bettors shouldn’t be fooled by the Jags 12-4 record either. In their last
ten games, they’ve played one team with a winning record, and have trailed
in nine of their 12 victories. In that respect, the Pats could be worth
backing at -4 to be leading after the first half (check out our other ‘1st
Half Lines’), but should we be backing them at -8 to win outright? They’ll
probably win, but instead of worrying about the line, we’ll back the
‘Under’ at bet365 instead. The cold weather is going to be a big factor in
keeping the scoring low between these two strong defenses.
Pick: Under 37 Points @ 10/11
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI – LIVE BETTING AVAILABLE…
Sunday, 1/8: 4:30pm ET CBS
Two of this weekend’s matchups were played out in the regular season.
Pittsburrgh won 27-13 in their Week Seven clash at Cincinnati, although
they lost 38-31 at home to the Bengals six weeks later. Since then, the
Steelers have been on a roll, having won their last four games by an
average of 20 points, which would explain why they’re 3-point favourites
here at bet365 (opened at 2). That’s good news for those of you who like
the fact that + 3 Cincinnati have homefield advantage, but can we really
trust this team right now? Cincy have covered just one of their last seven
home games, and looked terrible in their last two games, losing to by a
combined 44 points to the Chiefs and the Bills. Ok, with the No.3 seed
wrapped up, they might not have needed those games, but it’s still
difficult to see past Pittsburgh -3, and at the current bet365 price of
20/21, there’s only one place to bet it.
Pick: Pittsburgh -3 @ 20/21
WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY – LIVE BETTING AVAILABLE…
Saturday, 1/7: 4:30pm ET ABC
In the NFC, Tampa Bay won their Week Ten game against Washington 36-35 with
a dramatic two-point conversion in the final minute, and things look set to
be close again this weekend. Tampa probably just deserve to be favourite
(currently -2.5) with homefield advantage, and the way QB Chris Simms is
playing, but Washington will go into this game full of confidence on the
back of a 5-game winning streak. They’ll also be looking to put more
pressure on Simms than they did in Week Ten. They finished sackless there,
and allowed Simms to throw for 279 yards and three TD’s, but the Redskins
(who registered seven sacks against Dallas and four at Philly) will make
sure the young QB is never comfortable, and that should see them through to
the next round.
Pick: Washington +2.5 @ 10/11
CAROLINA @ NEW YORK GIANTS – LIVE BETTING AVAILABLE…
Sunday, 1/8: 1:00pm ET FOX
This is a tough one to call, but personal preference is for Carolina +2.5
(opened +3). The Panthers were my ante post Super Bowl pick at 14/1, and
those odds are looking poor value now they’re trading at 33/1, but much
better since their 44-11 romp over Atlanta last weekend. Of course, it’s
going to be tough for them to go all the way – no fifth or sixth seed has
even reached the Super Bowl since the 12-team playoff format was introduced
in 1990 – but those odds will be a lot shorter should they beat the Giants
this weekend. The Giants may be 8-1 at home this season, but Carolina are
6-2 on the road, so there’s no clues there. If only the Panthers could run
the ball…
Pick (or like to see win): Carolina +3.0 @ 10/11
bet365 latest Super Bowl prices…Indianapolis Evens, Seattle 9/2, New
England 7/1, Denver 8/1, Chicago 10/1, Pittsburgh 25/1, New York Giants,
Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Carolina 33/1, Washington 40/1, Jacksonville 50/1
GET MORE BACK FOR HITTING YOUR PARLAYS…
This weekend, we’ll also be having a speculative parlay wager on our four
selections, especially as you’re assured of getting an extra value here at
bet365 with our Parlay Bonus. Each week, we pay out up to 50% more on
successful football and basketball parlays on the following 6 markets:-
1. Point Spread
2. Game Total
3. First Half Point Spread
4. Second Half Point Spread
5. First Half Total
6. Second Half Total
A $50 parlay on Carolina (+2.5), Washington (+2.5), Pittsburgh (-3.0) and
‘Under’ 37 points in the Patriots game pays out $747.15 - which includes a
bet365 bonus of 10%
Good luck for the playoffs.