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The inside line from
PinnacleSports by Simon Noble
With the reigning Super Bowl Champion Patriots hosting the undefeated
Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, I thought it might be
interesting in this week’s column to highlight a smarter way to bet on
these high profile games at Pinnacle Sports.
For the first time since 2002, New England is receiving points at home. As
of today, the market price for the Colts saw them favored by 3 or 3.5 with
a game total of 47. In nine Monday night games this year, the underdogs
have gone 5-4, while playing the over has been 4-4-1.
In the past, sharps have always loved home dogs getting points on the
Monday night game, but the trend has cooled in recent years. In 2004, home
dogs were 2-2 ATS and there has only been one home underdog so far this
year, with Atlanta winning outright against Philadelphia.
Historically, high profile games like most Monday Night contests have
often had predictable line movements. Weather and injury factors
excepting, conventional wisdom says to play the favorite early or the
underdog an hour before kickoff to ensure the best price available. Last
week was no exception as Baltimore opened as a 9.5 point underdog and
closed at +12.5 against the Steelers.
Similarly, totals have a history of steaming upwards as game time
approaches. Many times, the difference between winning and losing a bet is
a single point and just like shopping lines, waiting to place an under bet
until Monday evening will often get you that extra point.
A lot of times it is possible that you won't find a side or total you like
on the Monday night game. In this instance, disciplined bettors will
simply pass on the game, and focus on proposition bets (or "props").
Public games like Monday night football often provide more opportunities
in props than on the game itself. They are the easiest for a player to
beat and sports books routinely lose money on them.
When you wager on a proposition, it’s typically your opinion versus one
odds maker. If you know more than that one odds maker, you are going to
get the best of it. As a result, many props departments will consider a
break-even day as a small victory.
Pinnacle Sports often offers more than forty reduced juice props on
premier games with a 16 cent line to provide unbeatable value to the
player. By way of comparison, other online books will typically use a 30
or 40-cent line with low wagering limits to protect themselves.
With this many wagering options and the public betting like mad, it's not
uncommon to see prop lines move on public money alone. We actually have
several professional prop players that will take a contrarian view on our
props and bet almost any one that moves more than 20 cents (betting
towards the original price).
Last week, we discussed the "Pinnacle lean". While this is mainly useful
for measuring market prices on sides and totals, it can be used on props
as well. For example, if we offered a theoretical prop, "Will Indianapolis
score first?" at Yes -130/No +114, this would suggest that the no-vig
price based on our 16 cent line is -122/+122. You can "play the lean" if
you find another book with the Yes at -121, or the No at +123.
But you don’t have to wait until Monday for some exciting action with some
great match-ups in both pro and college football like the games listed
below. And remember, if you check out pinnaclesports on the
weekend, you will find props available on all of these games too.
Miami (+6.5) at Virginia Tech
Miami dropped its first game of the year at Florida State 10-7, and has
since gone on a 6-0 run winning by an average of 23.3 points. Tech is 8-0,
winning by an average of 27.7 points per game. The Hurricanes and the
Hokies are ranked #1 and #2 in total yards allowed on defense,
respectively. Tech has won the last two meetings between these teams with
Miami winning three straight before that. Both teams are in the BCS hunt,
with Tech ranked 3rd and Miami 6th. A decisive win with a Texas or USC
loss could put either team in the National Championship hunt.
We opened the game at +6.5 flat and saw early dog money as the line eased
to +6. We were then played back the other way with many regular players
laying -104 and taking -6. Since moving back to +6.5 we have seen moderate
two-way action both in terms of the volume and the amount of wagers
accepted.
Tennessee (+8.5) at Notre Dame
This is a match-up of two teams headed in opposite directions. In Charlie
Weis's first year as Notre Dame's head coach, he has completely overhauled
their offense, elevating their offensive production to 37.9 points per
game. With an offensive attack that changed markedly from week-to-week,
the Fighting Irish have started the season 5-2.
The Volunteers are a disappointing 3-4 on the year (compared to a 10-3
record last season) with solid defense, but a lackluster offensive
production. In Tennessee's four losses, it scored an average of less than
10 points per game.
We are seeing a large volume on this game, with a moderate amount of point
buying/selling towards the 7. Of our bigger players, the sharper money is
on the Irish, though there is opposition. The unopposed action on this
game is on the under and we're currently dealing under 50 -108.
Indianapolis (-3) at New England
The Colts had a bye week to prepare for this match-up and will be hoping
to avenge last year’s season ending AFC playoff loss. A common
misconception is that bye weeks help teams the following week. From 1995
to 2004, teams went 143-157-9 ATS after a bye. Totals also had a
significant impact after a bye week with the under hitting at a rate of
158-142-9.
We opened the game with the Colts favored by -3 and took a lot of large
hits on Indianapolis. At the time of writing, the sharps and larger
players are lined up on Peyton Manning and the Colts, while only the
scalpers are playing the Patriots.
Carolina (-1) at Tampa Bay
Tampa was upset by San Francisco last week due in part to the loss of
starting QB Brian Griese. Ten-year veteran defensive end Simeon Rice (with
3 Pro-Bowl selections) also missed the game for disciplinary reasons but
is expected to play this week. If the Buccaneer’s offense flounders under
backup QB Chris Simms, it will have to rely on its defense - ranked #1 in
the league allowing 229.7 yards per game – to save the day.
The Panthers are on a hot streak at the moment having won their last four
games. Carolina has played a lot of close games (five this season were
decided by 4 points or less) and if the spread is any indication, this
will be another tight, low-scoring game.
We opened the game as a Pick'em and saw moderate two-way action. The
market has drifted towards Carolina -1 but the sharps are mostly staying
off this game, although a few are on Tampa Bay.