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WEEK 6 RECAP
COLTS KEEP THE WINNING CONNECTION
Each week, the Colts get shorter and shorter in the betting for the title. That's not surprising considering their perfect start to the season, and the form of some of their rivals, although few would have predicted their shocking start against the Rams last Monday night. The 14-point underdogs raced into a 17-0 lead, until losing QB Marc Bulger to a sprained shoulder in the second quarter, after which it all went wrong. By coming from behind, we saw another side to the Colts, who were dealing with adversity for the first time this season, but shrugged it off with 31 consecutive points in the second half. The result means the Super Bowl market is strikingly similar to how it looked at the outset, with the top four sides unchanged after six weeks of action.
Overall, it was a good week for favourites with nine winning and covering the handicap. Seattle (-8.5) were the best-backed team of the weekend, and they didn't let their supporters down, cruising to a 42-10 win over Houston, resulting in their odds being clipped into 20/1. Pittsburgh (12/1 from 11/1) are struggling to cope with their injury troubles, and were the biggest casualties going down 23-17 to an improved showing by Buffalo, who now find themselves challenging for the AFC East lead. Dallas were also clipped in the betting after their overtime win over the Giants (although they can still be backed at an industry-best 28/1 with bet365), and they're starting to look like genuine contenders for the title.
bet365 latest Super Bowl prices … Indianapolis 2/1, Philadelphia 8/1, New England 9/1, Atlanta 11/1, Pittsburgh, Carolina 12/1, others on bet365 website.
WEEK 7 PICKS
DENVER BRONCOS @ NY GIANTS
Su Oct 23 – 4:15 pm EST/20:15 GMT
After scoring just 10 points in their opening game at Miami, the Broncos have turned it around, and can extend their winning streak to six when they visit the New York Giants on Sunday. They also started last season 5-1 only to stumble down the stretch, but they might do better this year, thanks to the improved play of their QB, Jake Plummer. Plummer threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 28-20 victory over the Pats, and also extended his streak without an interception to 17 games. Last week, the Giants offence had its worst day of the season, committing five turnovers and scoring their fewest points so far. They might struggle to get it going again against a revamped Denver defensive line. We've got Denver listed as 1.5-point underdogs, with the total set at 47.
Pick 1: Denver (+1.5) @ 10/11
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ST LOUIS RAMS
Su Oct 23 – 1:00 pm EST/17:00 GMT
The Saints have won their last three visits to the Edward Jones Dome, and there are good reasons for thinking they can continue that run on Sunday. Playing in their make-shift home in San Antonio last week, the Saints forged a 31-31 tie with Atlanta in the fourth quarter and thought they were heading for overtime, only to go down 34-31 to a last minute controversial field goal. This was still a big improvement in form and, in particular, RB Antowain Smith excelled against a tough Atlanta defence with an 880-yard, two-touchdown performance. St Louis lost more than their third straight game on Monday night to Indianapolis, with QB Marc Bulger expected to miss the next three weeks at least, and that is bad news for the Rams. The Saints are underdogs by a field goal, with the total at 47.
Pick 2: New Orleans (+3.0) @ 10/11
A $50 parlay on the above two games pays out $191.34 - which includes a bet365 bonus of 5%
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This week's suggested parlay is on the following teams:
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BET IT LIVE WITH 365
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You can't beat the adrenaline rush of the live game, and that's when our In-Play service kicks in via our new 'In-Play Console', which has all the odds and markets on one convenient page (just click on the link on the top left-hand side of the home page). This weekend's live games are:
Texas Tech @ Texas
Sa Oct 22 – 3:30 pm EST(ABC)/19:30 GMT
PIT Steelers @ CIN Bengals
Su Oct 23 – 1:00 pm EST/17:00 GMT
GB Packers @ MIN Vikings
Su Oct 23 – 1:00 pm EST/17:00 GMT
BUF Bills @ OAK Raiders
Su Oct 23 – 4:15 pm EST/20:15 GMT
NY Jets @ ATL Falcons
Mo Oct 24 – 9:00 pm EST (ABC)/Tu Oct 25 – 01:00 GMT
Good luck in Week 7.
BASEBALL
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HOUSTON, NO PROBLEM – ASTROS TO WIN IN 7 @ 9/2
Sa Oct 22 – 7:30 pm EST (FOX)/23:30 GMT
On Saturday, the Chicago White Sox will host the Houston Astros for Game 1 in a best-of-seven World Series. This is Chicago's first appearance since 1959 and Houston's first … ever. In fact, both teams current ballparks have had more names than pennant winners, with the latest being two of the worst examples of corporate sponsorship in baseball – Minute Maid Park and US Cellular Field!
Chicago, who hasn't won the title since 1917, is coming off the best postseason performance by starting pitchers in nearly half a century, while Houston became the first team since the 1914 Boston Braves to win a pennant after falling 15 games under .500 during the regular season. Overall, there's very little between the teams. As for a prediction we'll take the Astros in Game 7 at 9/2 (+450), and take the under (7.0) in Game 1 at Evens (+100). With two of the best rotations in the majors lining up, it's conceivable that these teams combined could average no more than six or seven runs per game. Once the game starts don't forget to check out our live betting via our new 'In-Play Console'.
World Series Picks:
Astros to beat the White Sox @ 21/20 (+105)
Astros to win in Game 7 @ 9/2 (+450)
Game 1: Under 7 runs @ Evens (+100)
NASCAR
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JOHNSON IN GOOD SHAPE AT 7/1
Su Oct 23 – 12:30 pm EST (NBC)/16:30 GMT
Only five races remain in the 'Chase for the Cup' and, with the standings getting tighter, each race will feel like double points to the winner. There's currently nothing between the top two drivers, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson, and both must be considered as likely winners this week's Subway 500 at the half mile short track of Martinsville.
This week, Stewart is favourite to win at 9/2 (+450), with Johnson at 7/1 (+700). After threatening to run away from everyone in the chase, Stewart came crashing back down last week (literally), to leave all ten drivers in the chase within 142 points of the leader. As the victim of a tire failure as the leader on lap 217, Stewart saw his 75-point lead evaporate to leave him tied with Johnson atop the standings. After entering the chase on a streak of 12 straight finishes of eight or better, he's posted two finishes outside the top-15 in his last four races. You can look for a much better run this week, but Johnson has experienced more success on the track in the last four seasons, and is looking for his third win in five races. Entering this race last year, Johnson was 227 points off the pace, but claimed his second straight checkered flag, part of a furious late rally that brought him to within eight points of eventual champion Kurt Busch. With momentum again on his side this week, and the pressure very much on Stewart, Johnson looks the one to be on this week.
Subway 500 Pick: Jimmie Johnson @ 7/1
bet365 Subway 500 prices…Tony Stewart 9/2, Jeff Gordon 5/1, Jimmie Johnson 7/1, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch 8/1, others on bet365 website.
GOLF
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OGILVY IS MAGIC AT 33/1
Th Oct 20 – 3:00 pm EST (ESPN)/19:00 GMT
Fr Oct 21 – 3:00 pm EST (ESPN)/19:00 GMT
Sa Oct 22 – 4:00 pm EST (ESPN)/20:00 GMT
Su Oct 23 – 3:00 pm EST (ABC)/19:00 GMT
In the States we've got another pro-am with the Funai Classic at the Walt Disney resort in Florida. With scores again likely to be low on the wide-open Magnolia resort course, there's a danger that we'll see another long-priced winner like last week's 500/1 no-hoper Wes Short (7/4 before the Playoff against Jim Furyk). However, for this year's event, the course has been lengthened to make it one of the five longest on the Tour, which should at least help to sort the men from the boys, and that makes our price of 50/1 on Geoff Ogilvy even more tempting. This long straight driver has already shown what it takes to play well here by finishing in the top-10 for the last two years, and was in contention going into the final round of last week's pro-am. Although he faltered to finish 16th, that was just one of many high finishes on the Tour this year, including a fifth in the Open and a sixth in the USPGA. As he's currently 37th on the Money List, another good week could see him jump into the top-30, which ensures qualification for the season-ending Tour Championship.
There are no such money worries for Tiger Woods who tees up this week not far from his Orlando home, and in a State where he's won seven times (average finish 7.4). However, he has been beaten in the last four 'Disneys' and, even at the Enhanced Win Only odds of 5/2, I would prefer to be taking longer prices this week. And, they don't come much bigger than Scott Gutschewski at a standout 150/1. Three starlight top-20's, giving him five in the season, have taken him to 148th on the Money List, and he too will be hoping for a big cheque to break into the top-125 and land his 2006 PGA Tour card. If his current form was not reason enough to back him, a quick look at his stats – 4th in total driving distance at over 310 yards! – makes his price even harder to fathom.
Another outsider who looks over-priced is Joey Sindelar, again at a bet365 standout price of 100/1. Joey plays some of his best golf here with five top-20's since 1990, including 4th last year. And, more to the point, this year has been his best for ages, with three top-10s and five top-20s from his last eight starts, which strongly suggests he'll be thereabouts again this week. Don't forget, once the first round gets under way, we'll have live betting via our 'In-Play Console', which also includes prices on the current Round Leader.
Nigel's Funai Classic Three Off The Tee: Geoff Ogilvy @ 33/1; Joey Sindelar @ 100/1; Scott Gutschewski @ 150/1 (Each-way ¼ odds 1.2.3.4.5.)
Get in the game and be lucky!
Nigel.
NIGEL RIDGWAY, an experienced punter and betting shop owner of many years, believes that “The key to successful gambling is getting value for money.” Nigel was once forced by local bookmakers, to stop writing a tipping column in a UK newspaper, because he was costing them a fortune. Find out what offers and lines are hot at bet365
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