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WEEK 5 RECAP
IMPOSING COLTS 9/4 FOR SUPER BOWL
Indianapolis has hardened in the Super Bowl betting to 9/4 after beating
San Francisco 28-3. When the best team in the NFL play the worst, play is
bound to be one-sided, but it was still an imposing performance by the
Colts, and one rightly predicted by the many bet365 customers who bet the
14.5-point line (moved to 15.5 at kick-off). After five weeks, they are the
only team that has not lost a game, having allowed only 29 points in that
time. Since 1970, only two teams have done better (Atlanta in 1977, and
Baltimore in 1971), and it would be a brave man to bet against that trend
continuing this week. In fact, we’ve already seen plenty of interest in the
Colts for their Monday night game against the Rams at the opening 13 (now
14), and that line is sure to move again nearer kick-off (Live In-Play
betting available).
New England was also well-supported last week at -2.5 (opened at +2.5),
after the Falcons QB Michael Vick was ruled out. They duly won 31-28, which
was also good news for the bet365 customers who teased the Falcons a point to 3.5. The Pats remain at 7/1 for the title, but Philadelphia slid out to the same price after flopping as three-point favorites at home to Dallas (40/1 from 80/1). Other losing favorites were Houston (-3.0) and Tampa Bay (-3.0), while Cincinnati (16/1 to 20/1) showed that they had benefited from an easy schedule when losing their unbeaten tag to Jacksonville.
bet365 latest Super Bowl prices … Indianapolis 9/4, Philadelphia, New
England 7/1, Atlanta, Pittsburgh 11/1, Carolina 14/1, others on bet365
website.
WEEK 6 PICKS
NEW YORK JETS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Live In-Play betting – Su Oct 16 – 4:15 pm EST/20:15 GMT
Last week’s pick, New York (+3.0), did us proud by beating Tampa Bay 14-12
on the road, and they again look something to bet on this week getting
three points from the Bills. After weeks of instability, the Jets turned to veteran QB Vinny Testaverde last week, and he provided some much-needed
inspiration in offence, finishing 13-of-19 for 163 yards with an
interception. Meanwhile, their defense continued its recent strong play by
holding the Buccaneers to just four field goals. Despite the win over Miami
last week, Buffalo have yet to score a second-half touchdown, getting
limited to three field goals in five games, while their defense is having
trouble stopping the run. All in all, this makes the Jets worthy underdogs
this week.
Pick 1: New York (+3.0) @ 10/11
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Su Oct 16 – 1:00 pm EST/17:00 GMT
Last week’s ‘under’ pick Miami @ Buffalo, fell right on the number (34
points), but this game should have no trouble staying below the 43 points.
Washington boasts one of the most underrated defensive units in the NFL,
and they will be well prepared for the Chiefs after facing the Broncos and
Seahawks over the past two weeks. Denver and Kansas City are actually quite similar offensively, and the Skins limited the Broncos to just 21 points last week. Their offence is less effective, scoring 20 points or less in each of the first four games, and that’s unlikely to change here. The
Kansas defense may have taken a battering in their last game against the vaunted Eagles offence but, before that, it had looked much improved from
last year. In fact, the ‘under’ is 3-1 in City’s first four games.
PICK 2: Washington Redskins @ Kansas City Chiefs - UNDER 43.0 POINTS @
10/11
A $50 parlay on the above two games pays out $191.34 - which includes a
bet365 bonus of 5%
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Betting purists will say that you should be sticking to single bets, but
this is one way of getting rich cheaply, and there’s nothing wrong with a speculative wager on the weekend’s games – plus you’re assured of getting some extra value with our Football Parlay Bonus! Each week, we pay out up to 50% more on successful NFL & NCAAF parlays on the following 6 markets:
Point Spread, Game Total, First Half Point Spread, Second Half Point
Spread, First Half Total, Second Half Total.
This week’s suggested parlay is on the following teams:
New York Jets (+3.0); Oakland (+2.0); Cleveland (+5.5) and Chicago (-3.0) -
All teams are currently priced at 10/11, and a $50 parlay pays out $730.59
- which includes a bet365 bonus of 10%
BET IT LIVE WITH 365
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You can’t beat the adrenaline rush of the live game, and that’s when our
In-Play service kicks in via our new ‘In-Play Console’, which has all the odds and markets on one convenient page (just click on the link on the top
left-hand side of the home page). This weekend’s live games are:
MIA Dolphins @ TB Buccaneers
Live betting – Su Oct 16 – 1:00 pm EST/17:00 GMT
NE Patriots @ DEN Broncos
Live betting – Su Oct 16 – 4:15 pm EST/20:15 GMT
NY Jets @ BUF Bills
Live betting – Su Oct 16 – 4:15 pm EST/20:15 GMT
HOU Texans @ SEA Seahawks
Live betting – Su Oct 16 – 8:30 pm EST (ESPN)/Oct 17 – 00:30
Michigan State @ Ohio State
Live betting – Sa Oct 15 – 12:00 pm EST (ABC)/16:00 GMT
STL Rams @ IND Colts
Live betting – Mo Oct 17 – 9:00 pm EST (ABC)/Oct 18 – 01:00 GMT
Good luck in Week 7.
NASCAR
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STEWART LOOKS QUALITY BET AT 7/1
Sa Oct 15 – 7:00 pm EST (NBC)/23:00 GMT
As expected the Roush Racing cars dominated last week’s race in Kansas,
with a clean sweep of the top three spots, lead by race leader Mark Martin.
This week’s UAW-GM Quality 500 race is from the NASCAR capital, Charlotte,
NC, where most of the teams have their headquarters (Live betting available
via our new In-Play Console’).
While Roush Racing continues to be the team to beat at the ‘cookie cutter’
tracks, the Hendrick team has dominated at the Lowe’s Motor Speedway in recent seasons. In particular, Jimmie Johnson (our 4/1 favorite this week), who has won four of the last five in Charlotte including the last three in a row. That dominance was confirmed in a recent test session on the track, when the Hendrick team was led home by Kyle Busch (14/1), who recorded the second fastest recorded lap time. The information gleaned from that session, combined with their existing knowledge of the track, will make all of them contenders again this week, including Jeff Gordon, who could be over-priced at 16/1.
However, the driver with the fastest time during the recent test session
was Tony Stewart and, as the last driver other than Johnson to win a points race at Charlotte, he could be something to bet on this week at a tasty 7/1. Stewart continues to drive well, and was the only non-Roush driver in the top five last week. He leads the Nextel Cup standings by 75 points over Ryan Newman, and this is definitely a track where he can widen that gap some more. He would love to win here for his main sponsor, Home Depot, the main competitor of the track’s sponsor, Lowe’s chain of improvement stores.
There’s nothing more satisfying than winning a competitor’s sponsored race,
or in this case, on their track. So, don’t expect Stewart to drive for just
a points finish this week.
UAW-GM Quality 500 Pick: Tony Stewart @ 7/1
bet365 latest UAW-GM Quality 500 prices…Jimmie Johnson 4/1, Tony Stewart
7/1, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle 8/1, Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, Brian Vickers
12/1, others on bet365 website
GOLF
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CRANE IS YOUR MICHELIN MAN AT 33/1
Th Oct 13 – 4:00 pm EST (USA)
Fr Oct 14 – 4:00 pm EST (USA)
Sa Oct 15 – 3:00 pm EST (USA)
Su Oct 16 – 3:00 pm EST (ABC)
Last week’s pick, Sergio Garcia (3rd at 25/1), would have won if he’s sunk
a few more putts and, with scoring bound to be low at this week’s Michelin
Championship on the wide-open resort courses, this week’s winner is likely
to a player with a hot flat stick. Another key to success this week will be patience, with four balls including two amateurs expected to produce rounds
in excess of 6 hours. As one of the slowest players on Tour, that will suit
Ben Crane down to the ground, and at a standout bet365 price of 33/1 (35/1
Enhanced Win Only Odds) he must enter calculations this week. That price
looks even more attractive when you factor in his two top-20’s here in the
past three years, and the fact that he’s shown promise in pro-ams before.
The more ‘relaxed’ style of golf this week should also suit the personality
of Shigeki Maruyama, who has no course form to speak of (he’s rarely played
here), but who comes into this week in great nick. Last week’s opening 74
was his worst round in his last 16, during which period he’s posted ten
rounds in the 60’s to stand at 33 under par! That form should come as no
surprise as his three October events last year yielded finishes of 16th,
19th and 2nd (1st and 3rd in 2003). As he’s currently 35th on the Money
List, he’ll be keen to play himself into the top-30 this week to guarantee
entry into the season-closing Tour championship and, in his current form,
he looks a great each-way bet at 33/1 this week.
Another player to catch the eye this week is Carl Pettersson. Like
Maruyama, Pettersson is a late season performer, having finished in the
top-10 in no less than four of the five events to end in October last year.
He was also fourth in last month’s Deutsche Bank Championship against a
much stronger field than this, where he held the lead after 54 holes. As
one of the finest putters on Tour, he could well go low this week, and
looks worth an interest at a tasty 66/1. Don’t forget, once the first round gets under way, we’ll have live betting via our ‘In-Play Console’, which also includes prices on the current Round Leader.
Nigel’s Michelin Championship Three Off The Tee: Ben Crane 33/1; Shegeki
Maruyama @ 33/1; Carl Pettersson @ 66/1 (Each-way ¼ odds 1.2.3.4.5.)
Get in the game and be lucky!
Nigel.
Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times are subject to change. Check local listings.
NIGEL RIDGWAY, an experienced punter and betting shop owner of many years,
believes that “The key to successful gambling is getting value for money.”
Nigel was once forced by local bookmakers, to stop writing a tipping column in a UK newspaper, because he was costing them a fortune. Find out what offers and lines are hot at bet365