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With the first week of college action behind us, we must ****** the results and start making our choices. Basically, for the next 13 weekends, we will face a full betting menu which offers both good and bad scenarios.
Do you make your plays early or late? Do you bet full limits or just look for a lead which would give you options later in the week? How many bets are enough, because in some cases, you may risk too much money on too many games?
Remember, the bookmaker's biggest ally is actually a three-fold advantage: the 11-10 is a given, aligned with randomness of all the selections, and the confusion which is created.
Here is my take -- and bear in mind, I try to give a rationale from both sides. Remember Joe Pesci in the movie “Casino,” where he confronts his man and insists, “NO, I wasn't taking, I was laying!” Unfortunately, for the rest of us in real life, it isn't that easy.
Regarding timing: make your play when you think it is appropriate to jump in. The old chestnut “play early on favorites and late on dogs” does not have its original “bite,” if you'll pardon the pun.
I have seen unsophisticated players over-bet because for some reason they assume the number will move in their direction, only to watch helplessly as it backs up like a Georgia mule. Face it, only a select few can efficiently follow such a strategy season after season. Trust me on this, and do not go into a week with a predetermined number of sides you intend to be on. The more the better for the BM, who is “taking.”
Now if you like 10 games, go to it. Conversely if only a few look ripe to you, then those should be the games you play.
Limits are very arbitrary. You should listen to no one but yourself on this topic. It is your money. Just ask yourself what is your threshold of pain, and go from there.
Finally, are some games worth more than others? Another toughie, because I have seen people operate as polar opposites on this subject, and they have all done okay and are still playing.
For myself, I believe that some betting opportunities should be pushed, but that is a personal feeling, not an objective suggestion. Some guys like the shot-gun effect of betting lots of games for the same amount. They feel that as slight as their edge may be, they are not likely to win a double bet. So they ensure they will never lose one, either.
Bettors with the opposite point of view feel there is a better chance of having a winning season by taking advantage of certain attractive plays which, presumably, have a higher percentage of getting cashed. But these players fully understand that even attractive double plays have a chance of being decided unfavorably by unforeseen events.
Whatever you take from this, it comes down to realizing that the word “gamble” means betting on an uncertain outcome. So check your dance card as the party officially starts this week.
Next week, I'll be checking in from Reno.
Take care, Jimmy V
Do you make your plays early or late? Do you bet full limits or just look for a lead which would give you options later in the week? How many bets are enough, because in some cases, you may risk too much money on too many games?
Remember, the bookmaker's biggest ally is actually a three-fold advantage: the 11-10 is a given, aligned with randomness of all the selections, and the confusion which is created.
Here is my take -- and bear in mind, I try to give a rationale from both sides. Remember Joe Pesci in the movie “Casino,” where he confronts his man and insists, “NO, I wasn't taking, I was laying!” Unfortunately, for the rest of us in real life, it isn't that easy.
Regarding timing: make your play when you think it is appropriate to jump in. The old chestnut “play early on favorites and late on dogs” does not have its original “bite,” if you'll pardon the pun.
I have seen unsophisticated players over-bet because for some reason they assume the number will move in their direction, only to watch helplessly as it backs up like a Georgia mule. Face it, only a select few can efficiently follow such a strategy season after season. Trust me on this, and do not go into a week with a predetermined number of sides you intend to be on. The more the better for the BM, who is “taking.”
Now if you like 10 games, go to it. Conversely if only a few look ripe to you, then those should be the games you play.
Limits are very arbitrary. You should listen to no one but yourself on this topic. It is your money. Just ask yourself what is your threshold of pain, and go from there.
Finally, are some games worth more than others? Another toughie, because I have seen people operate as polar opposites on this subject, and they have all done okay and are still playing.
For myself, I believe that some betting opportunities should be pushed, but that is a personal feeling, not an objective suggestion. Some guys like the shot-gun effect of betting lots of games for the same amount. They feel that as slight as their edge may be, they are not likely to win a double bet. So they ensure they will never lose one, either.
Bettors with the opposite point of view feel there is a better chance of having a winning season by taking advantage of certain attractive plays which, presumably, have a higher percentage of getting cashed. But these players fully understand that even attractive double plays have a chance of being decided unfavorably by unforeseen events.
Whatever you take from this, it comes down to realizing that the word “gamble” means betting on an uncertain outcome. So check your dance card as the party officially starts this week.
Next week, I'll be checking in from Reno.
Take care, Jimmy V
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