Tweet
The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
Professional players dedicate many hours each week shopping for the best
price, and will often spend more time in this endeavor than handicapping.
Given that the sharps are betting high limits each week, this is time well spent even if it adds only 1% to the bottom line. But how can the average player making $100 bets get the best price without turning odds checking into a full-time job?
Half the battle is won in preparation, so before beginning to handicap, have your money in place. Ideally, you’ll take advantage of Pinnacle Sportsbook’s -104 NFL pricing which offers up to 60% better value on NFL
sides than other online sportsbooks. Plus you’ll also have one or two
“recreational books”, which use inflated lines on the favorites.
It’s also a good idea to keep a fair amount of money liquid in a NETeller
account, where it can be put into play quickly. Most sports books,
including Pinnacle Sportsbetting, instantly credit accounts with NETeller deposits. Even limiting odds comparison to just 10 minutes per week, this small amount of preparation still adds 1% to the expected return.
Another tactic bettors can use to always get the best price doesn’t
involve any additional work, but instead emphasizes the importance of
timing. Instead of handicapping during mid-week or Friday for weekend
games, players should begin analyzing the games immediately after the
weeks’ games are completed. Reviewing college football games Saturday
night or Sunday morning and NFL games Sunday evening, gives players one
more money-spinning opportunity – betting into overnight lines.
Many sportsbooks typically post overnight lines on all major sports.
College and pro football usually go up Sunday night, and are very volatile
when the lines are first posted. These lines don’t have to be extremely
sharp because early betting quickly tightens prices against reduced
limits.
A well known anecdote among linesmakers at Pinnacle Sports is that the first few bets taken on any overnight line are ALWAYS sharp plays. These bets are made by smaller bettors who have already analyzed the games and don’t mind the lower limits. The early bettors are often long-term winners, who are among the few that actually get the best of it time and again. However, it’s worth conceding this edge to the early sharps as they provide an invaluable service by sharpening the lines, allowing PinnacleSports to raise limits to significant levels. Without these early “$100 geniuses”, we couldn’t offer $30,000 limits on NFL games (which are sometimes blue-circled to $50,000 or higher per wager).
I can’t stress strongly enough that if your average bet-size is $500 or
less, the one thing you can do to win more is bet against overnight lines.
This is especially the case with the smaller markets like NCAA football
totals. If betting into early lines seems a little intimidating, try this
experiment: For four weeks, track the opening lines. When making plays,
make a record of whether you would have gotten a better price on the
opener, or against the closing line. Nearly all players will find that
with the exception of significant injury news or changeable weather
conditions, the line moves during the week give them a worse price than if
they had bet it early.
For those already doing early handicapping and using a moderate sportsbook selection, there are other ways to be a smarter shopper while still working your day job.
If you’re willing to spend just a little more time bargain-hunting, the
best time to do so is when the lines are moving more quickly. For example,
say the line at the Pinnacle Sportsbook is shifting against you, try making your play at a recreational book that moves its lines more slowly. On the other hand, if you like the direction of the line change, wait for the market to stabilize, and take the best price. The trick is to recognize when these movements occur. After the normal bouncing around of openers, there are two other factors that routinely cause substantial movement: injury announcements and large bets before game time.
In the final 60 minutes before a game kicks off, there are often dramatic
changes in the price. This is often caused by syndicate play, which waits
until close to post when the betting limits are highest everywhere. If
you’re prepared to stare at a live lines screen for the 60 minutes before
a set of games goes off (for example the early NFL games every Sunday),
you’ll find many line moves that are big enough to scalp. Waiting until
this time period to place bets allows you to either play at the
fast-moving sites like Pinnacle Sports Book or the slower moving
recreational books depending on which way lines move.
Injury plays are another way to make a killing, but bettors have to be
quick on the trigger. When a star player is listed as doubtful or out of
the next game, there will be a tidal wave of action. The premier books may
either take the game offline, circle the game and set lower limits, or
drastically change the price when the news comes out. Beating the book to
the punch gives an almost certain scalping opportunity by playing the
other side after the line movements. Even if you miss the initial surge, a
lot of smaller sportsbooks will leave the old prices up.
What are our customers betting?
Northwestern v Nevada O/U 47.5
With over 100 NCAA Div-IA teams, not to mention the various Div-IAA teams,
we have to price a lot of product quickly for openers every Sunday
afternoon. Some numbers - especially totals – can be a bit loose when they
open. This total was set at 52 and was quickly corrected by our “$20
geniuses”. When four of our smaller sharps play the same side of a college
total opener, we get to a good price cheaply.
Baltimore -6.5 -105 v. Cleveland
The Ravens have played dominantly on both sides of the ball, outscoring
their opponents 55-6 this season. The Browns have been lackluster, losing
to New Orleans and Cincinnati. We opened Baltimore at -4 and favorite
money poured in. Early money on the favorite was taken at the rate of
twenty bets on the Ravens for each one accepted on the Browns.
Philadelphia -6 -110 v. San Francisco
The Eagles opened as a 4-point favorite and were immediately bet up by the public. Once again, a majority of the money was fading the underdog with five bets on the Eagles for every one on the 49ers.
Atlanta -3.5 -108 v. New Orleans
Although this game isn’t until Monday night, it’s our most heavily traded
game this week. The Saints opened at +3 -115 and were driven up to +3.5
+100. While the betting is fairly equal on both sides, market drift has
pushed this price up. We are seeing a lot of favorites heavily backed and
we can’t help but wonder whether the favorites will repeat their 58% cover
rate ATS in 2005.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and
online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet
betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting
requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines and
rebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now with
Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
Comment