NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Bubble Tracker

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What's a Must-Win Game if Everybody Loses?

By PETE SIMPKINSON, USA TODAY

In March, desperation can be a good thing for men's college basketball teams.

A sense of dire urgency can motivate a team to pick up the upset or two needed to grab the attention of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

This March, for nearly every team on the bubble, desperation looks more like Hootie hawking burgers on television and strumming some ripoff of 'A Mighty Wind' near a bunch of wardrobe malfunctions waiting to happen.

Come and get it, as the tagline goes.

Or don't, if you're on the bubble.

The weekend was littered with losses by teams most in need of victories to get off the bubble and earn some of the 34 at-large berths that the Committee is contractually obligated to fill on Sunday.

Thinking about writing off Maryland, DePaul or West Virginia? Northern Iowa, Houston, N.C. State, Vanderbilt and George Washington passed up the chance to wield that fat, red marker for you. They all got saddled with costly losses in the past week.

Plenty of teams would appear to be playing their way out of berths in the NCAAs, but too few teams are stepping up to take their places in the field.

The Selection Committee will face some tough choices. Some top bubble teams like Texas A&M, New Mexico, Holy Cross and Virginia Tech loaded up their nonconference schedules with tomato cans.

In the past, the Selection Committee has punished teams for scheduling too lightly outside of league play. Alabama won 21 games in 2001 but did not receive an NCAA Tourney berth, to cite one recent, famous example.

Will the standard hold this season or will the Aggies get the nod over a team like the losing Missouri Valley Conference tournament finalist? Stay tuned.

UTEP too hot to ignore: Previously a bubble team, UTEP makes the field by virtue of other contenders' losses this week along with the Miners' earlier road win over Nevada and a neutral-court victory over Arizona State in the Las Vegas Invitational.

UTEP has won four in a row heading into Thursday's WAC quarterfinals in Reno. But the Miners' key games of late have been losses. The only games that UTEP has dropped in its past nine were by seven at Pacific -- the No. 17 team in the coaches' poll -- and by two points to Nevada, the coaches' unofficial No. 26.

The Miners may ultimately need to reach the WAC final to overshadow bad defeats to Louisiana Tech, Tulsa and Fresno State.

Georgetown, Miami of Florida and Buffalo dropped out of the projected field since Wednesday.

The Bulls missed a big opportunity in Saturday's home game against Akron, a 16-point Buffalo defeat. The Hurricanes have gotten beaten up by the ACC with four defeats in five games, including a pivotal setback at Virginia Tech.

Georgetown, a solid pick for the field two weeks ago, has come in second in five straight games. A three-point home loss to Providence on Saturday put the Hoyas on the bubble.

Georgetown can start to claw its way back on Wednesday against Seton Hall in the first round of the Big East tournament. A victory there would bring a game against the hottest team in the league, Connecticut. The Hoyas lost a road game against the Huskies by 19 points last week.

Bowling Green dropped off the bubble scene with a home loss to 10-17 Central Michigan on Saturday.

Howling: Nevada put its berth beyond doubt with road wins at Hawaii and San Jose State, sending the Wolf Pack into the WAC tournament quarterfinals on a 10-game win streak.

Conference count (projected multiple-bid leagues): Big East 7; Big 12 and SEC 6; ACC 5; Big Ten, Conference USA and Pac-10 4; MVC 3; MAC, West Coast and WAC 2.

This column uses the imitation rankings from www.collegerpi.com. That Web site's figures most closely mirror the RPI rankings used by the tournament selection committee to aid in picking its brackets.

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Close to the Edge


Holy Cross

Big-time wins: Northeastern, Bucknell, at Boston U
Of note: Plays Bucknell in PAL finals Friday; Won past 16; No. 206 strength of schedule; 17 of 24 wins vs. RPI below 200; 11-3 on road; 0-3 vs. Top 50, 3-4 vs. Top 100.

Ohio

Big-time wins: Miami (Ohio), Buffalo sweep, Kent State, San Francisco, Toledo, W. Michigan, Bowling Green
Of note: Won past 4; Lost at Fla. International, at N. Illinois, at St. Francis (Pa.); 4-4 vs. Top 50, 8-6 vs. Top 100 .


Georgetown

Big-time wins: at Villanova, at Pitt, at Davidson, W. Virginia, Notre Dame
Of note: Plays Seton Hall Wednesday; lost past 5; 7 of 16 wins below RPI 190; lost at St. John's; 2-6 vs. Top 50, 5-8 vs. Top 100


Buffalo

Big-time wins: Miami (Ohio), Kent State, Akron, Niagara
Of note: May clinch with two wins in MAC tourney; 9 of 19 wins vs. RPI below 210; 3-4 vs. Top 50, 7-8 vs. Top 100.


Texas A&M

Big-time wins: Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State, Houston, Missouri, Alabama A&M
Of note: Won past 3; 10 of 19 wins vs. RPI below 210; 2-7 vs. Top 50, 5-7 v.s Top 100.

N.C. State

Big-time wins: Ga. Tech sweep, Maryland sweep, UL-Lafayette, Va. Tech
Of note: 7-9 in ACC; Lost to FSU, at St. John's; 9 of 17 wins vs. RPI below 190; 4-6 vs. Top 50, 6-9 vs. Top 100.

Miami (Fla.)

Big-time wins: at Florida, Maryland, N.C. State, at Virginia
Of note: Lost 4 of 5; 7-9 in ACC; No. 16 strength of schedule; lost to S.C. State, Xavier; 2-6 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100.

Vanderbilt

Big-time wins: Alabama, UL-Lafayette, Toledo, S. Carolina, Arkansas, TCU
Of note: Lost at Georgia; 2-7 on road; 1-8 vs. Top 50, 5-11 vs. Top 100.

Kent State

Big-time wins: Miami (Ohio), Buffalo, Akron sweep, at Creighton, Ohio
Of note: Won 3 of 4; 10 of 17 wins vs. RPI 180 and below; 5-5 vs. Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100.


Virginia Tech
Big-time wins: Duke, at Ga. Tech, Maryland, Miami (Fla.) sweep, N.C. State, Chattanooga
Of note: Lost at St. John's, at VMI; 15-12 overall; nonconference RPI of 228 vs. 51 in-conference; 3-5 vs. Top 50, 7-8 vs. Top 100.

New Mexico

Big-time wins:Utah
Of note: Won past 6 and 9 of 10; strength of schedule No. 261; lost at BYU; 15 of 23 wins vs. RPI below 210; 1-2 vs. Top 50.

George Washington

Big-time wins: Mich. State, vs. Maryland
Of note: Lost at Richmond; 11 of 19 wins vs. RPI below 190; 8-4 on road; 2-1 vs. Top 50, 2-3 vs. Top 100.


UAB

Big-time wins: DePaul, VCU, at Marquette, vs. Oral Roberts, at Houston
Of note: Won past 4; Lost at Richmond, to ECU, at Tulane; 10 of 20 wins vs. RPI below 190; 7-5 on road; 0-4 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100


Northern Iowa

Big-time wins: S. Illinois, at Wichita State, SW Mo. State sweep, Iowa State
Of note: Lost vs. SMS in MVC quarters; lost at Bradley, at Drake, at Evansville; 2-3 vs. Top 50, 6-7 vs. Top 100.

Houston
Big-time wins: Louisville, LSU, vs. Missouri, TCU
Of note: Lost past 2; lost to Tulane; 2-4 vs. Top 50 , 3-10 vs. Top 100.


Barely Breathing


Indiana

Big-time wins: Wisconsin, Mich. State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Oral Roberts
Of note: Won 4 of 5; No. 17 strength of schedule; 2-8 on road; 15-12 overall; 3-7 vs. Top 50; 6-11 vs. Top 100.


UL Lafayette

Big-time wins: S. Illinois, W. Kentucky
Of note: Lost past 2; 9 of 18 wins vs. RPI below 180; lost at Ga. State, at Ark. State; 1-3 vs. Top 50, 3-8 vs. Top 100.

Arizona State

Big-time wins: Stanford sweep, vs. Vanderbilt, Delaware State
Of note: 7-11 in Pac-10; lost past 3 and 6 of 8; No. 29 strength of schedule; 2-6 vs. Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100.

Wichita State

Big-time wins: cS. Illinois, at N. Iowa, SMS sweep
Of note: Lost to Creighton in MVC semis; lost 6 of 8; lost at Bradley, to Manhattan, at Indiana State; 4-6 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100.

South Carolina

Big-time wins: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Winthrop
Of note: Lost 4 of 5; 15-12 overall; No. 39 strength of schedule; 8 of 15 wins vs. RPI below 180; lost to Auburn; 1-9 on road; 1-8 vs. Top 50, 4-9 vs. Top 100.


Marquette

Big-time wins: Wisconsin, DePaul, Houston, Kent State, Delaware State
Of note: 7-9 in C-USA; lost to St. Louis; best road win at E. Carolina; 2-5 vs. Top 50, 4-7 v.s Top 100.


TCU

Big-time wins: Texas Tech, UAB, Houston, Marquette
Of note: Lost at St. Louis, at TAMU-CC, at S. Miss; 10 of 18 wins vs. RPI below 190; 3-9 on road; 1-5 vs. Top 50, 4-8 vs. Top 100


Ark-Little Rock

Big-time wins: S. Illinois, UL Lafayette, W. Kentucky sweep
Of note: Lost to FIU in Sun Belt quarters; lost to Ark. State, at Fla. International; 1-4 vs. Top 50, 4-6 vs. Top 100.


Beyond the Bubble

Arkansas, Boston U, Bowling Green, Bucknell, Davidson, Denver, Drexel, Hofstra, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Northeastern, Oregon, Oregon State, San Francisco, Temple, Toledo, UNC Wilmington, Utah State, Virginia, VCU, W. Kentucky, W. Michigan, Wis.-Milwaukee, Wyoming.





How this projected field was selected


These selections are more of a reflection of whom the selection committee WILL probably pick, not whom it SHOULD pick.


If a loss is noted, then it was against an opponent with an RPI ranking in the neighborhood of 140 or below.


Big-time wins include victories over other at-large contenders.


The selection committee will fill out the 65-team bracket on Sunday, March 13. At-large berths will go to 34 schools and 31 conference champions will receive automatic invitations. The tournament begins Tuesday, March 15.

Crunching the numbers: The numbers game only goes so far in this "which top teams have you beaten" game of earning NCAA Tourney berths. Some other factors that eliminate teams but don't get teams invited on their own:


Win-loss records: Reaching 20 wins is no more of a guarantee than 18. It's not how many games you win, but how many ranked teams you can beat, especially away from your home court.


Poll rankings: These seem to have more of an effect on the awarding of top seeds than the fates of the Nos. 20-25 teams. Utah State was ranked heading into the Big West tournament last year but stumbled to the bubble.


Conference records: BCS-league teams with 10-6 records should not feel assured of a bid. It happened to Boston College two years ago.

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Nervously Watching Conference Results


St. Mary's

Big-time wins: Gonzaga, San Francisco sweep
Of note: Lost to Gonzaga in WCC finals Monday; lost at Hawaii, at Rutgers; 8-4 on road; 1-2 vs. Top 50, 3-2 vs. Top 100.


Vermont

Big-time wins: Northeastern sweep, at Holy Cross, Boston U.
Of note: In AEC final vs. Northeastern Friday; lost at Maine; 10-6 on road; 11 of 23 wins vs. RPI below 220; 0-2 vs. Top 50, 3-3 vs. Top 100.

SW Missouri St.

Big-time wins: S. Illinois twice, Miami (Ohio), vs. N. Iowa, Creighton sweep, Ark.-Little Rock
Of note: Lost to Creighton in MVC title game; won past 4; lost at Bradley, at Detroit, at Indiana State; 6-6 vs. Top 50 , 7-7 vs. Top 100.

In Good Shape With One More Win


Maryland

Big-time wins: Duke sweep, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Of note: Faces Clemson in ACC first round Thursday; lost 3 of 4; No. 13 strength of schedule; 2-7 on road; 3-4 vs. Top 50, 5-8 vs. Top 100.

Minnesota

Big-time wins: Wisconsin, Holy Cross, Ohio State sweep, Indiana, Iowa
Of note: Plays Indiana Friday in Big Ten quarters; won past 4; lost to Northwestern; 2-5 vs. Top 50, 6-7 vs. Top 100.

DePaul

Big-time wins: Cincinnati, Old Dominion, at Notre Dame, Houston, Marquette, Bowling Green, TCU
Of note: Lost past 2 and 4 of 6; lost at Northwestern, at Bradley, to Northern Illinois; 2-3 vs. Top 50, 6-5 vs. Top 100.

UCLA

Big-time wins: Washington, Arizona State sweep, at Notre Dame
Of note: May clinch with win over Oregon State in Pac-10 quarters Thursday; No. 23 strength of schedule; 1-7 vs. Top 50, 3-7 vs. Top 100.

Georgia Tech

Big-time wins: Wake Forest, Miami (Fla.) sweep, Ark.-Little Rock
Of note: May clinch with win over Va. Tech in ACC quarters Friday; No. 17 strength of schedule; went 4-5 without B.J. Elder; 1-7 vs. Top 50, 5-9 vs. Top 100.

West Virginia

Big-time wins: at LSU, Pitt sweep, G. Washington, at N.C. State
Of note: Needs to beat Providence Wednesday; won 6 of 8; lost vs. Marshall; 3-5 vs. Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100.

Shakiest Prospects


UTEP

Big-time wins: at Nevada, vs. Arizona State
Of note: Won past 4; lost at La. Tech, at Fresno State, at Tulsa; 10 of 23 wins vs. RPI below 240; 1-4 vs. Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100.


Akron

Big-time wins: Miami (Ohio), Buffalo, Ohio sweep, Toledo, at Bowling Green, Niagara
Of note: May need to reach MAC finals; lost at N. Illinois, at Drake; 2-4 vs. Top 50, 8-6 vs. Top 100.


Miami (Ohio)

Big-time wins: Buffalo, Kent State, Akron, Wichita State, Ohio, at Toledo
Of note: Needs a win in MAC quarterfinals; lost 3 of 4; lost at Marshall, at Butler; 4-5 vs. Top 50, 9-7 vs. Top 100.


How this projected field was selected


These selections are more of a reflection of whom the selection committee WILL probably pick, not whom it SHOULD pick.


If a loss is noted, then it was against an opponent with an RPI ranking in the neighborhood of 140 or below.


Big-time wins include victories over other at-large contenders.


The selection committee will fill out the 65-team bracket on Sunday, March 13. At-large berths will go to 34 schools and 31 conference champions will receive automatic invitations. The tournament begins Tuesday, March 15.

Crunching the numbers: The numbers game only goes so far in this "which top teams have you beaten" game of earning NCAA Tourney berths. Some other factors that eliminate teams but don't get teams invited on their own:


Win-loss records: Reaching 20 wins is no more of a guarantee than 18. It's not how many games you win, but how many ranked teams you can beat, especially away from your home court.


Poll rankings: These seem to have more of an effect on the awarding of top seeds than the fates of the Nos. 20-25 teams. Utah State was ranked heading into the Big West tournament last year but stumbled to the bubble.


Conference records: BCS-league teams with 10-6 records should not feel assured of a bid. It happened to Boston College two years ago.