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Support for President Falls
By WILL LESTER, AP
WASHINGTON (Oct. 8) -- Democrat John Kerry has taken a slight lead over President Bush, according to an Associated Press poll that found him gaining ground with women, boosting his overall popularity and cutting into the president's advantage on national security.
The two candidates remain in a very close race ahead of a second debate Friday night in St. Louis.
Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards led Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, 50 percent to 46 percent, in the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. The Oct. 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The race was tied at 47 percent among the 1,273 registered voters in the poll, similar to others showing a tight race.
With bloodshed increasing in Iraq, Kerry sharpened his attacks, and Bush stumbled in their initial debate a week ago. Another possible factor influencing the results: consumer confidence has been dropping in recent weeks, according to several measures of attitudes about the economy.
Nearly three-fourths of likely voters surveyed by the AP said they had watched or listened to the first Bush-Kerry debate on Sept. 30. About four in 10 - 39 percent - said they came away with a more favorable view of Kerry, while just 8 percent felt better about Bush.
''I was more comfortable with Kerry after the debate,'' said Louis Robinson, a 66-year-old retiree and Democrat from Pittsburgh. ''I just like the way he carried himself.''
Nearly one-third of those who watched the debate said it gave them a less favorable view of Bush.
Bush advisers privately acknowledge that he cost himself in the first debate by fidgeting and grimacing during Kerry's answers and failing to seize upon openings by the Democrat. They felt better about Cheney's performance Tuesday against Edwards, the Democratic vice presidential candidate.
In the final weeks of the campaign, the president is facing an unsettled electorate.
Nearly six in 10 of all the people questioned said the country was headed down the wrong track, reflecting a gloomy national mood that could jeopardize Bush's re-election bid. His overall job approval rating among likely voters, 46 percent, was at its lowest point since June - down from 54 percent in late September.
Bush's current job approval falls at the midpoint between recent presidents who won and lost re-election.
President Carter had a job approval rating in the 30s in October 1980 before being ousted the following month. President George H.W. Bush, father of the current president, also was in the 30s in October 1992 before losing.
Presidents Reagan and Clinton had job approval levels in the mid-50s in surveys by the Gallup polling organization at this stage of their successful re-election bids.
Forty-four percent of likely voters approved of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, down from 51 percent in the late-September poll. Likely voters were about evenly split - Bush at 49 percent and Kerry at 46 percent - on the question of who is best suited to handle Iraq.
On the question of who would do the best job protecting the country, Bush led Kerry 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters - down from the 20-point lead Bush held in a Sept. 7-9 poll by AP-Ipsos. Bush has had a big advantage on that issue since the beginning of the campaign.
''The biggest thing is that I feel comfortable with Bush on terrorism, foreign conflicts and any threats at home,'' said Wanda Burkel, a 54-year-old independent from Lake Forest, Calif.
While national polls gauge the potential popular vote, the real race for the White House is playing out one state at a time in the battle for 270 electoral votes - a competition that also remains remarkably close.
Eric Schlichting, a suburban Chicago inventory manager who tends to vote Republican, said he definitely doesn't support Kerry, but Iraq is troubling him.
''Up until the last 18 months, I was leaning toward Bush, but the more that happens (there) the worse it gets,'' Schlichting said. ''He sticks to his guns, but his aim is so far off that sticking to his guns is not paying off.''
By WILL LESTER, AP
WASHINGTON (Oct. 8) -- Democrat John Kerry has taken a slight lead over President Bush, according to an Associated Press poll that found him gaining ground with women, boosting his overall popularity and cutting into the president's advantage on national security.
The two candidates remain in a very close race ahead of a second debate Friday night in St. Louis.
Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards led Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, 50 percent to 46 percent, in the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. The Oct. 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The race was tied at 47 percent among the 1,273 registered voters in the poll, similar to others showing a tight race.
With bloodshed increasing in Iraq, Kerry sharpened his attacks, and Bush stumbled in their initial debate a week ago. Another possible factor influencing the results: consumer confidence has been dropping in recent weeks, according to several measures of attitudes about the economy.
Nearly three-fourths of likely voters surveyed by the AP said they had watched or listened to the first Bush-Kerry debate on Sept. 30. About four in 10 - 39 percent - said they came away with a more favorable view of Kerry, while just 8 percent felt better about Bush.
''I was more comfortable with Kerry after the debate,'' said Louis Robinson, a 66-year-old retiree and Democrat from Pittsburgh. ''I just like the way he carried himself.''
Nearly one-third of those who watched the debate said it gave them a less favorable view of Bush.
Bush advisers privately acknowledge that he cost himself in the first debate by fidgeting and grimacing during Kerry's answers and failing to seize upon openings by the Democrat. They felt better about Cheney's performance Tuesday against Edwards, the Democratic vice presidential candidate.
In the final weeks of the campaign, the president is facing an unsettled electorate.
Nearly six in 10 of all the people questioned said the country was headed down the wrong track, reflecting a gloomy national mood that could jeopardize Bush's re-election bid. His overall job approval rating among likely voters, 46 percent, was at its lowest point since June - down from 54 percent in late September.
Bush's current job approval falls at the midpoint between recent presidents who won and lost re-election.
President Carter had a job approval rating in the 30s in October 1980 before being ousted the following month. President George H.W. Bush, father of the current president, also was in the 30s in October 1992 before losing.
Presidents Reagan and Clinton had job approval levels in the mid-50s in surveys by the Gallup polling organization at this stage of their successful re-election bids.
Forty-four percent of likely voters approved of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, down from 51 percent in the late-September poll. Likely voters were about evenly split - Bush at 49 percent and Kerry at 46 percent - on the question of who is best suited to handle Iraq.
On the question of who would do the best job protecting the country, Bush led Kerry 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters - down from the 20-point lead Bush held in a Sept. 7-9 poll by AP-Ipsos. Bush has had a big advantage on that issue since the beginning of the campaign.
''The biggest thing is that I feel comfortable with Bush on terrorism, foreign conflicts and any threats at home,'' said Wanda Burkel, a 54-year-old independent from Lake Forest, Calif.
While national polls gauge the potential popular vote, the real race for the White House is playing out one state at a time in the battle for 270 electoral votes - a competition that also remains remarkably close.
Eric Schlichting, a suburban Chicago inventory manager who tends to vote Republican, said he definitely doesn't support Kerry, but Iraq is troubling him.
''Up until the last 18 months, I was leaning toward Bush, but the more that happens (there) the worse it gets,'' Schlichting said. ''He sticks to his guns, but his aim is so far off that sticking to his guns is not paying off.''
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