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Guys, I will never guarantee a play, but I will say that the game I am playing is my favorite of the year to date - the only other time I said something similar was when the Marlins beat the Pirates as a dog of better than +150.
Milwaukee Brewers -104 (Capuano/Robertson)
Again, I'm not promising anything at all, but I would have played the Brewers -130 in this game.
Chris Capuano is an incredibly unheralded pitcher. I don't know why the line continues to be so short in games he starts. Last time out he was inexplicably a home dog to Sabathia - I would have made him at least a -120 favorite in that game. Now he comes basically even money against Nate Robertson and the Tigers? Is this a joke?
The Brewers have been bad on the road, but here at Miller Park they are very good (24-16). They are 7-1 in Capuano's home starts. His overall ERA is 3.30, but his home ERA is 2.88. Plus, as I said five days ago in the Brewers +101 writeup, the great thing about him is that he works deep in games - he hasn't gone fewer than 6 innings in two months. This is especially important to the Brewers, who have very good late relief, but poor middle and long relief.
Robertson's ERA is only a little worse than Capuano's, but his WHIP isn't comparable. But the great thing is that the Brewers hit LHP very hard. They average 5.5 rpg and 9.6 hits per game against LHSP. The Tigers, who supposedly have the better offense, average 3.9 rpg and 7.9 hits per game against LHSP.
In the series opener, they had 3 hits, 0 runs, and 9 Ks in 7.0 innings against a lefty. That was Doug Davis, who isn't on Capuano's level.
I was hoping this lefty-lefty matchup would happen. It does, and win or lose, this line is dead wrong.
Good luck to all!
Milwaukee Brewers -104 (Capuano/Robertson)
Again, I'm not promising anything at all, but I would have played the Brewers -130 in this game.
Chris Capuano is an incredibly unheralded pitcher. I don't know why the line continues to be so short in games he starts. Last time out he was inexplicably a home dog to Sabathia - I would have made him at least a -120 favorite in that game. Now he comes basically even money against Nate Robertson and the Tigers? Is this a joke?
The Brewers have been bad on the road, but here at Miller Park they are very good (24-16). They are 7-1 in Capuano's home starts. His overall ERA is 3.30, but his home ERA is 2.88. Plus, as I said five days ago in the Brewers +101 writeup, the great thing about him is that he works deep in games - he hasn't gone fewer than 6 innings in two months. This is especially important to the Brewers, who have very good late relief, but poor middle and long relief.
Robertson's ERA is only a little worse than Capuano's, but his WHIP isn't comparable. But the great thing is that the Brewers hit LHP very hard. They average 5.5 rpg and 9.6 hits per game against LHSP. The Tigers, who supposedly have the better offense, average 3.9 rpg and 7.9 hits per game against LHSP.
In the series opener, they had 3 hits, 0 runs, and 9 Ks in 7.0 innings against a lefty. That was Doug Davis, who isn't on Capuano's level.
I was hoping this lefty-lefty matchup would happen. It does, and win or lose, this line is dead wrong.
Good luck to all!
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