Spears Game 5 Analysis and Pick

[Spearit]

Greetings -- 6-0 and desiring more. Some of you may be rattled by the strength of Miami last night.
So here we are- knotted up at 2 each and both teams showing their teeth. Rebounding is a key issue- both strive on it. Miami is rated at -1 in this game. Dallas may well have Stackhouse in the doghouse with his attack on Shaq and may be suspended for the game. (How will this effect the rebounding and team chemistry?) This may bring the total in Miami's favor to -2 or more as people seem to judge by the actions of the last game to determine their picks.

I have done well not to follow the hype and see Dallas taking this game. Why--- Well, only once since the 2-3-2 format has been in effect- only Detroit has won the mid- three games at home. That is quite amazing when you consider the number of years this has been in effect.
I am unsure of the first half at this writing- but I promise this pivotal game shows intensity and am leaning on the under.

Anticipating Line strengthening:

Dallas +1

[Spearit]

NBA reviewing Stackhouse's foul on Shaq

June 16, 2006

AP - Jun 12, 4:19 pm EDT
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MIAMI (AP) -- The NBA is reviewing Jerry Stackhouse's hard foul against Shaquille O'Neal in Game 4 of the NBA finals to determine if it warrants any additional penalty.

Stackhouse was called for a flagrant foul for knocking O'Neal down as Miami's center was going in on a fast break during the third quarter of the Heat's 98-74 victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night.

Senior vice president of operations Stu Jackson will rely on tape of the incident and interviews with Stackhouse and O'Neal before deciding if Dallas' top reserve should be fined and/or suspended. Any penalty would be announced before Game 5 on Sunday night, but an NBA spokesman said he didn't know if it would come Friday or Saturday.

The Mavericks expect to have their sixth man available.

[TwoTonTony]

thanks spearit....great info....like usual!!

[Kaptain]

you still like Dallas without Stackhouse----gl my man---kapt

[ChuckLazar]

I'll be on it....Great calls so far...The refs have surely kept these games to go 7...The Commisioner must have told them, that if Mia doesn't tie up the series, no-one will watch game 5....GL Buddy

[Tomorrows Paper]

Good luck Spearit, like the play. I think the play is actually better without Stackhouse - assuming the line goes up a little more (as we expect).

[MarkLemke]

Good luck Spearit, like the play. I think the play is actually better without Stackhouse - assuming the line goes up a little more (as we expect).

Well said fellow Braves sufferer...I completely agree that there is tons of value in Dallas in Game 5! Best of luck bud!!!

[Spearit]

Yes Kapt- Wait and let the line value increase.

[KazDog]

I like the Mavs even more without Stack. Everytime I think a team is in a good position to win because the other team has a key player missing, they lose. The public money should be going on the Heat....Therefore, play is on the Mavs

KAZ

[Spearit]

Update 2:51 pm Sat.
Open MIA -1'/188
Current MIA -2/187'

Wagers: 5417
Dal 30%--------MIA 70%
O 32%---------U 68%

[worm]

good luck Spearit

[Spearit]

Most NBA observers had the Dallas Mavericks winning their first NBA Finals appearance in six games, and though Miami's surprising return to form in Games 3 and 4 remains our freshest memory of the series thus far, it bears repeating that this is exactly how many saw this thing ending. What remains is a three-game series, and the Mavs have two to play at home. On paper, everything appears to be going according to plan.

Most of these Finals follow a similar pattern: an ugly Game 1, a blowout for the home team in Game 2, an inspired comeback for the home team in Game 3, followed by a close road win in Game 4 and a backs-against-the-wall survival conquest for the home team in Game 5. And, usually, most of these Finals end in Game 6. Since the home-court format was changed to 2-3-2 for the 1985 Finals, 10 of the 21 championships have ended in six games, with five Finals finishing in five, three sweeps, and three seven-gamers.

Though the Dallas-Miami series hasn't followed the typical pattern, it is reminiscent of Chicago's six-game win over Utah in 1997. The Bulls took the first two at home, and though they needed a Michael Jordan game-winner in the first game, their 12-point win in Game 2 wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. With momentum clouding the thought process, writers and television hacks alike saw the Bulls as primed for a sweep. Instead, Utah won the next two games handily, reminding everyone that -- oh, yeah -- the Jazz were a championship-worthy team and probably couldn't be beaten by anyone (even MJ's Bulls) four straight times. Chicago then won a close won in Game 5 (it was just as hard to beat those Bulls three straight times) before closing it out at home.

(It should also be noted that in 1998, the Jazz could only muster nine points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 of the Finals against the Bulls, and then gathered themselves long enough to take Game 5 in Chicago some five days later. The Jazz were the most efficient scoring team in the NBA that year, and you can't keep a good offense down.)

So, though some are predicting gloom and doom for the Mavs in these Finals, assuming they're going to have to deal with a third straight loss in Miami on Sunday before having to win two straight in Texas to pull out the series, things actually appear to be right on course. Just as no one should have expected a team as good as the Heat to be beaten four straight times (even by a team as good as the Mavs), nobody should expect a team as good as the Mavs to be taken down three straight times (even by a team as good as the Heat). There's a reason that only one home team in 21 Finals (the 2004 Pistons, playing against a crippled and self-loathing group of Lakers) has taken the three middle games in the 2-3-2 format, and though the Mavs have their work cut out for them, history is on their side.

[Spearit]

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MIAMI is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.
The average score was MIAMI 98.4, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 1*)

MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
The average score was MIAMI 95.3, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 1*)

MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season.
The average score was MIAMI 96.8, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 1*)

MIAMI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was MIAMI 104.4, OPPONENT 102.4 - (Rating = 2*)

[Spearit]

DALLAS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 104.1, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 1*)

Riley is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was MIAMI 103.8, OPPONENT 103.0 - (Rating = 2*)

Johnson is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 99.7, OPPONENT 91.7 - (Rating = 2*)

[seaofred]

gl SPEARIT and thanks for the trends

seaofred