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Baseball Plays of the Day (30-32, +1.60*)
Two plays today, both are pretty strongly against the public. Pinnacle is currently running -121/+113 on both games. The public likes Boston and Oakland (a cursory glance at an unnamed gambling website reveals these being the two most lopsided sides of less than -150), I'm going the other way.
Minnesota Twins -121 (Santana/Schilling)
It sure must be easy to take the Red Sox at +odds here. Not so fast. There's a reason for everything, and there's about 10 reasons why the Twins are underpriced here.
Santana's home ERA is 1.48 better than Schilling's road ERA.
Santana's overall ERA is 0.65 better than Schilling's.
Santana's ERA last 5 starts is 1.13 better than Schilling's.
The Twins average nearly a half run more against RHSP than LHSP.
The Red Sox average over a half run fewer against LHSP than RHSP.
Red Sox 18-15 on the road.
Twins 18-10 at home.
Red Sox 3-6 on turf.
Twins 19-12 on turf.
Red Sox 5-10 their last 15 at the Metrodome.
Also, Schilling hasn't pitched in the Metrodome in at least three years, may have been longer - that's weird, but true.
Seattle Mariners +113 (Moyer/Blanton)
This is the one I really like. In fact, the Mariners should be no worse than even money here - and yet the line is moving against them. I think it starts coming down shortly, as some big tickets will be placed on the M's.
Anyone who is a regular reader of this thread will be aware that there is nothing I like more than fading a team that just played the Yankees. Actually, there is one thing (well, one gambling-related thing): fading a team that just swept the Yankees in Yankee Stadium, and now traveled across the country to play a mediocre team.
Moyer's ERA is nearly 2 runs better than Blanton's. Both pitcher's have been better at home, so that is of mild concern, but it is alleviated by the RH/LH pitching differentials. The Mariners are averaging 1.9 more runs per game against RHSP, and the A's are averaging 1.4 fewer runs per game against LHSP.
The Mariners have been especially profitable in night games vs. RHSP: 6.1 RPG, 19-12 record. That's the situation here, and as erratic as Blanton has been, there's only one way to play this one.
Two plays today, both are pretty strongly against the public. Pinnacle is currently running -121/+113 on both games. The public likes Boston and Oakland (a cursory glance at an unnamed gambling website reveals these being the two most lopsided sides of less than -150), I'm going the other way.
Minnesota Twins -121 (Santana/Schilling)
It sure must be easy to take the Red Sox at +odds here. Not so fast. There's a reason for everything, and there's about 10 reasons why the Twins are underpriced here.
Santana's home ERA is 1.48 better than Schilling's road ERA.
Santana's overall ERA is 0.65 better than Schilling's.
Santana's ERA last 5 starts is 1.13 better than Schilling's.
The Twins average nearly a half run more against RHSP than LHSP.
The Red Sox average over a half run fewer against LHSP than RHSP.
Red Sox 18-15 on the road.
Twins 18-10 at home.
Red Sox 3-6 on turf.
Twins 19-12 on turf.
Red Sox 5-10 their last 15 at the Metrodome.
Also, Schilling hasn't pitched in the Metrodome in at least three years, may have been longer - that's weird, but true.
Seattle Mariners +113 (Moyer/Blanton)
This is the one I really like. In fact, the Mariners should be no worse than even money here - and yet the line is moving against them. I think it starts coming down shortly, as some big tickets will be placed on the M's.
Anyone who is a regular reader of this thread will be aware that there is nothing I like more than fading a team that just played the Yankees. Actually, there is one thing (well, one gambling-related thing): fading a team that just swept the Yankees in Yankee Stadium, and now traveled across the country to play a mediocre team.
Moyer's ERA is nearly 2 runs better than Blanton's. Both pitcher's have been better at home, so that is of mild concern, but it is alleviated by the RH/LH pitching differentials. The Mariners are averaging 1.9 more runs per game against RHSP, and the A's are averaging 1.4 fewer runs per game against LHSP.
The Mariners have been especially profitable in night games vs. RHSP: 6.1 RPG, 19-12 record. That's the situation here, and as erratic as Blanton has been, there's only one way to play this one.
- I thought about playing the Heat -4 tonight, but then decided, hey what the hell, I'll lay -190 on the ML. It seemed logical at the time, now I sort of regret it. Still, this should be a David Stern special. Expect the Heat to shoot at least 10 more FTs than the Mavs tonight.
- Do people really think JJ Redick will be in the NBA in three years? I mean, the DUI thing is just another reason not to draft him, but last time I checked, there are 50 2-guards in the NBA that are better defensively than Garrett Temple, who made Redick look like a geeky poet rich kid that had no business being on a major athletic stage.
- Oh yeah, and the NBA season is 82 games, and Redick was dead after 20 at Duke. There's only three teams where he might have a chance: Phoenix, Golden St., and Seattle. None of those teams care about defense, they just want someone to jack up shot after shot.
MY MEAT IN THE HOT DESERT.......
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