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Handicapping the Pitcher
This is a good article that could help some new guys win more often...
By ROB BONTER Posted: 2006/05/25
Baseball betting is basically handicapping the starting pitcher. The baseball bettors I have met work off the premise that all the other variables in the handicapping equation are of far lesser importance.
LAS VEGAS - However, the view from here is that conventional pitching statistics are dull handicapping tools. The venerable ERA statistic was invented in response to the understanding that winning percentage is an unfair barometer of pitching effectiveness. However, the ERA statistic is also unfair, albeit to a lesser degree. It goes without saying that some pitchers work under more favorable circumstances than others.
When I go about analyzing a baseball matchup, I create a double-sided ERA for each of the opposing starters. With this technique, I control to some degree for the impact of ballpark configurations and wind currents on run production. By way of illustration, let’s look at Philadelphia Phillies starter Gavin Floyd.
During the first seven weeks of the season, Floyd had nine starts. He allowed 31 earned runs in 46 innings, giving him an ERA of 6.07.
Knowing only Floyd’s ERA, one might conclude that he was a stiff. Since he had a winning record (4-2) despite his travails, one might infer that the percentages were about to catch up with him. Victories would presumably become more elusive.
A different picture of Floyd emerges when one compares his ERA with the cumulative ERA of the starters that he was matched up against. In games against the Phillies when Floyd was the opposing pitcher, these hurlers allowed 39 earned runs in 44.1 innings, yielding an ERA of 7.92. In the composite, Floyd actually out-performed his rivals.
I also perform this exercise for walks and strikeouts. These statistics are influenced to some extent by the idiosyncrasies of home plate umpires.
Getting back to Floyd, he allowed 26 walks in his first 46 innings. However, opposing starters yielded 21 walks in 44.1 innings. Converting these figures to get a base number of 100, one finds that Floyd walked 100 batters to every 84 batters walked by his opponents. Framed within this context, Floyd’s proneness to walking batters becomes somewhat less of a red flag.
I have been playing around with a statistic that I suspect will prove to be very useful in our common quest to find hidden value in baseball prices. This statistic is runs allowed on home runs. We will abbreviate this by using RHR.
In theory, a pitcher that allows a lot of solo home runs is predisposed to lapses in concentration. However, I’ll take this pitcher any day over a pitcher that surrenders the bulk of his home runs with men on base. If I were a manager, I would have very little tolerance for a pitcher that can’t be trusted to keep the ball in the park in critical situations.
Continuing with our double-sided breakdowns, the current leader in RHR is New York Yankees right-hander Chien-Ming Wang. In his first 10 starts spanning 63 innings, Wang allowed only five runs from throwing gopher balls. Opposing starters allowed 21 runs via gopher balls in 54 innings.
Converting this data into a ratio, Wang had a nifty 4.9/1 RHR. To put this in perspective, the aggregate for the other pitchers in Joe Torre’s starting rotation was 1.4/1.
Gavin Floyd also fares well in this category. In his first nine starts, he allowed only 10 runs on home runs versus 27 for opposing starters.
Keeping an RHR log was nearly impossible before the advent of the Internet. Nowadays, one can find the raw data at several sites.
No sport gives a handicapper more statistics to play with than baseball. The key to beating the bookie is to ferret out the most crucial statistics and then massage them in a way that illuminates their utility. Hopefully, this article will point the way to some good overlays.
I personally look at MLB.com and CBSSportline for my information.
My #1 rule is not to read articles about Teams or plays from other cappers until after I do my research on Probable Pitchers, then I pick my teams I'm playing for that day...Most times I pick games for the next 3 to 4 days ahead of time, and see how those teams fair before I decide my final plays..
Any additional comments about capping is appreciated here....The more we pick peoples brains, the better handicappers we become in our main quest to make $$$
for each other...
By ROB BONTER Posted: 2006/05/25
Baseball betting is basically handicapping the starting pitcher. The baseball bettors I have met work off the premise that all the other variables in the handicapping equation are of far lesser importance.
LAS VEGAS - However, the view from here is that conventional pitching statistics are dull handicapping tools. The venerable ERA statistic was invented in response to the understanding that winning percentage is an unfair barometer of pitching effectiveness. However, the ERA statistic is also unfair, albeit to a lesser degree. It goes without saying that some pitchers work under more favorable circumstances than others.
When I go about analyzing a baseball matchup, I create a double-sided ERA for each of the opposing starters. With this technique, I control to some degree for the impact of ballpark configurations and wind currents on run production. By way of illustration, let’s look at Philadelphia Phillies starter Gavin Floyd.
During the first seven weeks of the season, Floyd had nine starts. He allowed 31 earned runs in 46 innings, giving him an ERA of 6.07.
Knowing only Floyd’s ERA, one might conclude that he was a stiff. Since he had a winning record (4-2) despite his travails, one might infer that the percentages were about to catch up with him. Victories would presumably become more elusive.
A different picture of Floyd emerges when one compares his ERA with the cumulative ERA of the starters that he was matched up against. In games against the Phillies when Floyd was the opposing pitcher, these hurlers allowed 39 earned runs in 44.1 innings, yielding an ERA of 7.92. In the composite, Floyd actually out-performed his rivals.
I also perform this exercise for walks and strikeouts. These statistics are influenced to some extent by the idiosyncrasies of home plate umpires.
Getting back to Floyd, he allowed 26 walks in his first 46 innings. However, opposing starters yielded 21 walks in 44.1 innings. Converting these figures to get a base number of 100, one finds that Floyd walked 100 batters to every 84 batters walked by his opponents. Framed within this context, Floyd’s proneness to walking batters becomes somewhat less of a red flag.
I have been playing around with a statistic that I suspect will prove to be very useful in our common quest to find hidden value in baseball prices. This statistic is runs allowed on home runs. We will abbreviate this by using RHR.
In theory, a pitcher that allows a lot of solo home runs is predisposed to lapses in concentration. However, I’ll take this pitcher any day over a pitcher that surrenders the bulk of his home runs with men on base. If I were a manager, I would have very little tolerance for a pitcher that can’t be trusted to keep the ball in the park in critical situations.
Continuing with our double-sided breakdowns, the current leader in RHR is New York Yankees right-hander Chien-Ming Wang. In his first 10 starts spanning 63 innings, Wang allowed only five runs from throwing gopher balls. Opposing starters allowed 21 runs via gopher balls in 54 innings.
Converting this data into a ratio, Wang had a nifty 4.9/1 RHR. To put this in perspective, the aggregate for the other pitchers in Joe Torre’s starting rotation was 1.4/1.
Gavin Floyd also fares well in this category. In his first nine starts, he allowed only 10 runs on home runs versus 27 for opposing starters.
Keeping an RHR log was nearly impossible before the advent of the Internet. Nowadays, one can find the raw data at several sites.
No sport gives a handicapper more statistics to play with than baseball. The key to beating the bookie is to ferret out the most crucial statistics and then massage them in a way that illuminates their utility. Hopefully, this article will point the way to some good overlays.
I personally look at MLB.com and CBSSportline for my information.
My #1 rule is not to read articles about Teams or plays from other cappers until after I do my research on Probable Pitchers, then I pick my teams I'm playing for that day...Most times I pick games for the next 3 to 4 days ahead of time, and see how those teams fair before I decide my final plays..
Any additional comments about capping is appreciated here....The more we pick peoples brains, the better handicappers we become in our main quest to make $$$
for each other...
MY MEAT IN THE HOT DESERT.......
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
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