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Cashed in the 5 STAR yesterday, but lost everything else, so on the day lost 1.25 units. 5 STARs have been on a nice five game winning streak and eight out of the last ten! These are my plays for Wednesday's action.............
5 STAR: Houston (Miller)(-$130) OVER ARIZONA (DESSENS)
I like the Astros to salvage the last game of this series against the Diamondbacks today with their ace Wade Miller on the mound. Miller is 9-2 in road games after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last two outings since 1997 and he is 13-4 in road games versus poor baserunning teams that are averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game since 1997. Arizona's Elmer Dessens (4-4, 5.38 ERA) has not picked up a decision in any of his last five outings since beating San Diego on May 25 and he is 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA in seven starts and four relief stints against Houston. The Astros are 10-2 in road games versus a National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 over the last 3 seasons, 25-9 after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more runs since 1997, 37-17 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 3 seasons, 23-7 after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons, 9-0 after allowing 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons, 7-2 in road games revenging 4 or more straight losses versus an opponent over the last 3 seasons and they are also 82-41 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 since 1997. Look for the Astros to blast off here!
5 STAR: MINNESOTA (MAYS)(-$125) OVER Chicago (Garland)
Minnesota's starting pitcher Joe Mays is 11-2 in his career team starts against the White Sox, including 5-0 at home. Meanwhile, White Sox starting pitcher Jon Garland is 0-4 lifetime in his team starts in the Metrodome. Joe Mays is also 17-5 versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season over the last 3 seasons, 29-16 versus teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times per game since 1997 and 33-16 versus division opponents since 1997. The White Sox are 2-7 after a one run win this season, 5-13 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less this season, 2-10 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and 5-11 in road games against division opponents this season. Also, home favorites with a winning record on the season with a money line of -110 or higher revenging a one run loss versus a division rival, that has a losing record are 69-18 over the last 5 seasons. Look for the Twins to take this one!
3 STAR: ATLANTA (MADDUX)(-$150) OVER Philadelphia (Padilla)
Atlanta's starting pitcher Greg Maddux is 5-1 at home against the Phillies and 14-6 in his last 20 team starts in June, including 7-1 in home games in June over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 1-8 in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season while Atlanta is 34-12 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Maddux is also 8-1 in home games versus a National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 3 seasons, 8-1 in home games versus teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more per game over the last 3 seasons, and 8-1 in home games versus terrible speed teams that are averaging 0.35 or less stolen bases per game since 1997. The Braves are 15-3 in home games after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last 3 seasons and they are 8-1 at home in June this season. Also, home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 whose hitters strike out 6 or less times per game on the season, after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base are 74-27 since 1997. Look for Maddux to be solid here as the Braves to take this one.
2 STAR: Milwaukee (Sheets)(+$125) OVER CHICAGO (ESTES)
Milwaukee pitcher Ben Sheets has dominated the Cubs in his career, I will continue to ride that trend until the Cubs figure him out. Sheets is 6-0 with a 2.45 ERA in seven career games against the Cubs. This season, the right hander is 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA in two games. Sheets is also 5-1 versus poor base running teams that are averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game this season. The Cubs are only 15-28 versus a National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons. The Cubs starting pitcher Shawn Estes has a career ERA of 5.18 against the Brewers and Estes was rocked in his last start, a 12-3 setback to the Chicago White Sox on Friday in which he surrendered six runs in just one inning. He walked four batters and gave up two hits, including a grand slam to Miguel Olivo. Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher that are revenging 5 or more straight losses versus an opponent in last 2 years, after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival are 20-8 over the last 5 seasons. I look for Sheets dominance of the Cubs to continue in this game.
2 STAR: Detroit (Maroth)(+$220) OVER BOSTON (BURKETT)
I have to take a shot here again with the Tigers at this price, especially with Burkett on the mound for the Red Sox. Burkett won both of his starts against the Tigers last season, but his ERA in those games was 6.23 and Burkett is 5-13 in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997. The Red Sox are 4-12 in home games after a game where they had 17 or more hits since 1997, 1-6 after a win by 8 runs or more this season, and 2-7 after scoring 10 runs or more this season. It's worth a shot at this price.
MLB RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 52-25 (+58.55 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 68-63 (+33.83 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 42-54 (-14.28 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 28-27 (+2.16 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 190-169 (+80.26 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $8026.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: Houston (Miller)(-$130) OVER ARIZONA (DESSENS)
I like the Astros to salvage the last game of this series against the Diamondbacks today with their ace Wade Miller on the mound. Miller is 9-2 in road games after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last two outings since 1997 and he is 13-4 in road games versus poor baserunning teams that are averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game since 1997. Arizona's Elmer Dessens (4-4, 5.38 ERA) has not picked up a decision in any of his last five outings since beating San Diego on May 25 and he is 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA in seven starts and four relief stints against Houston. The Astros are 10-2 in road games versus a National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 over the last 3 seasons, 25-9 after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more runs since 1997, 37-17 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 3 seasons, 23-7 after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons, 9-0 after allowing 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons, 7-2 in road games revenging 4 or more straight losses versus an opponent over the last 3 seasons and they are also 82-41 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 since 1997. Look for the Astros to blast off here!
5 STAR: MINNESOTA (MAYS)(-$125) OVER Chicago (Garland)
Minnesota's starting pitcher Joe Mays is 11-2 in his career team starts against the White Sox, including 5-0 at home. Meanwhile, White Sox starting pitcher Jon Garland is 0-4 lifetime in his team starts in the Metrodome. Joe Mays is also 17-5 versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season over the last 3 seasons, 29-16 versus teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times per game since 1997 and 33-16 versus division opponents since 1997. The White Sox are 2-7 after a one run win this season, 5-13 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less this season, 2-10 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and 5-11 in road games against division opponents this season. Also, home favorites with a winning record on the season with a money line of -110 or higher revenging a one run loss versus a division rival, that has a losing record are 69-18 over the last 5 seasons. Look for the Twins to take this one!
3 STAR: ATLANTA (MADDUX)(-$150) OVER Philadelphia (Padilla)
Atlanta's starting pitcher Greg Maddux is 5-1 at home against the Phillies and 14-6 in his last 20 team starts in June, including 7-1 in home games in June over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 1-8 in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season while Atlanta is 34-12 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Maddux is also 8-1 in home games versus a National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 3 seasons, 8-1 in home games versus teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more per game over the last 3 seasons, and 8-1 in home games versus terrible speed teams that are averaging 0.35 or less stolen bases per game since 1997. The Braves are 15-3 in home games after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last 3 seasons and they are 8-1 at home in June this season. Also, home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 whose hitters strike out 6 or less times per game on the season, after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base are 74-27 since 1997. Look for Maddux to be solid here as the Braves to take this one.
2 STAR: Milwaukee (Sheets)(+$125) OVER CHICAGO (ESTES)
Milwaukee pitcher Ben Sheets has dominated the Cubs in his career, I will continue to ride that trend until the Cubs figure him out. Sheets is 6-0 with a 2.45 ERA in seven career games against the Cubs. This season, the right hander is 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA in two games. Sheets is also 5-1 versus poor base running teams that are averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game this season. The Cubs are only 15-28 versus a National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons. The Cubs starting pitcher Shawn Estes has a career ERA of 5.18 against the Brewers and Estes was rocked in his last start, a 12-3 setback to the Chicago White Sox on Friday in which he surrendered six runs in just one inning. He walked four batters and gave up two hits, including a grand slam to Miguel Olivo. Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher that are revenging 5 or more straight losses versus an opponent in last 2 years, after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival are 20-8 over the last 5 seasons. I look for Sheets dominance of the Cubs to continue in this game.
2 STAR: Detroit (Maroth)(+$220) OVER BOSTON (BURKETT)
I have to take a shot here again with the Tigers at this price, especially with Burkett on the mound for the Red Sox. Burkett won both of his starts against the Tigers last season, but his ERA in those games was 6.23 and Burkett is 5-13 in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997. The Red Sox are 4-12 in home games after a game where they had 17 or more hits since 1997, 1-6 after a win by 8 runs or more this season, and 2-7 after scoring 10 runs or more this season. It's worth a shot at this price.
MLB RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 52-25 (+58.55 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 68-63 (+33.83 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 42-54 (-14.28 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 28-27 (+2.16 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 190-169 (+80.26 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $8026.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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