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8 winning days in a row … hope you're enjoying the run … that's why we do this.
Remember guys, The First Commandment of Baseball Wagering :
"Thou shalt not lay 1 ½ Runs with a home team."
Why do The 3 Wise Men keep insisting that it's an absolute bust if you
lay 1 ½ Runs with a home team ?
Well here's why …
30.8% of home games are 1 run victories ( thanks, FrankieB )
Why in the world would anyone bet the home team into a situation where 30% of the time it will not come to bat in the bottom of the 9th ? That's an 11% less times at bat disadvantage occuring 30% of the time ( thanks , Karl )
AND THAT IS HUGE
As Frank told me yesterday … "that would be like hitting on a hard 16 vs. a dealer's 6 in Blackjack. You're just giving it away "
Not for us … NOT EVER
The Plays For Today:
Stars:
2 ½* Atlanta ML -110
3* LA Dodgers ML -115
1* Philadelphia + 1 Run -125
1* Pittsburgh + 1 Run -105
1 ½* St. Louis ML -120
1* Oakland +1 Run -120
Note: There is a borderline play on Detroit -135 at home, over Cleveland … but not really quite enough to warrant a true play. Besides , these teams have played each other tough and this one could go either way. You could lay the 135 with Detroit on ML and take 1 ½ Runs with Cleveland at -160 for a ½ * play , just to have some rooting interest … I'm playing it for small but I'm not recording it .
Linemaker Special:
Tampa Bay at Boston ( - 115 opening line ) Last night Boston was a prohibitive -360 fave , and they opened -115 for tonight. This line jumps right out in my face. When I see such a big discrepancy in the line for back to back games , a red flag is thrown. I like Tampa Bay here on the ML at Even , for 1* only.
Middle Opportunity :
We are on St. Louis ML for 1 ½ * at -125 … play them for a 3* on ML and come back with San Diego + 1 ½ Runs at -145 for a 1 ½* strength . I told you not to worry about vig … profits are healthy and in the final tally this October the vig will have been just the cost of doing business … small potatoes.
High Liners:
Philadelphia + 1 ½ R -165
Pittsburgh +1 ½ R -140
Oakland + 1 ½ -155
************************************************** ***********************
Yesterday's Result:
Stars: 2-2
1* Washington +1 Run -130 Won
1* NY Mets + 1 ½ Runs -120 Lost
1* Seattle -1 Run Even Money Lost
1* Oakland + 1 ½ Runs -130 Won
High Liners: 2-0 + the hook up
Washington +1 ½ Runs -160 Won
Detroit ML -200 Won
Parlay won and paid 143 /100
************************************************** *****************
The Record: at 100/game … 100/Star
4*
3 ½*
3*……….. 2-2 ……………... -35 ………….... -105
2 ½* ……. 2-5 ………….. -365 …………... - 910
2* ………. 15-10…………… +325…………….. +650
1 ½* …… 19-24 …………. -990 ………….. -1435
1* ……... 60-51 ……..... +535…………….. +535
½* …….. 9-5 ………….... +375 …………….. +190
Star Rated Overall: …107-97 …… -155 ……. -1075
High Line Plays: 72-27 + 2305
Linesmaker Specials: 4-3 + 160
All Plays: 183 - 127
High Line Parlays: 13 wins - 14 losses … +1780
Top Daily Plays: 26-19
Run Line Star Plays: 47-41
Middle Opportunities : 4 … no middles won … -205 in vig lost
Net Net :
+3885 if stars were played at a flat 100 per game
+2965 if stars played at 100 / Star
As Always,
Best of Luck
-cb
Remember guys, The First Commandment of Baseball Wagering :
"Thou shalt not lay 1 ½ Runs with a home team."
Why do The 3 Wise Men keep insisting that it's an absolute bust if you
lay 1 ½ Runs with a home team ?
Well here's why …
30.8% of home games are 1 run victories ( thanks, FrankieB )
Why in the world would anyone bet the home team into a situation where 30% of the time it will not come to bat in the bottom of the 9th ? That's an 11% less times at bat disadvantage occuring 30% of the time ( thanks , Karl )
AND THAT IS HUGE
As Frank told me yesterday … "that would be like hitting on a hard 16 vs. a dealer's 6 in Blackjack. You're just giving it away "
Not for us … NOT EVER
The Plays For Today:
Stars:
2 ½* Atlanta ML -110
3* LA Dodgers ML -115
1* Philadelphia + 1 Run -125
1* Pittsburgh + 1 Run -105
1 ½* St. Louis ML -120
1* Oakland +1 Run -120
Note: There is a borderline play on Detroit -135 at home, over Cleveland … but not really quite enough to warrant a true play. Besides , these teams have played each other tough and this one could go either way. You could lay the 135 with Detroit on ML and take 1 ½ Runs with Cleveland at -160 for a ½ * play , just to have some rooting interest … I'm playing it for small but I'm not recording it .
Linemaker Special:
Tampa Bay at Boston ( - 115 opening line ) Last night Boston was a prohibitive -360 fave , and they opened -115 for tonight. This line jumps right out in my face. When I see such a big discrepancy in the line for back to back games , a red flag is thrown. I like Tampa Bay here on the ML at Even , for 1* only.
Middle Opportunity :
We are on St. Louis ML for 1 ½ * at -125 … play them for a 3* on ML and come back with San Diego + 1 ½ Runs at -145 for a 1 ½* strength . I told you not to worry about vig … profits are healthy and in the final tally this October the vig will have been just the cost of doing business … small potatoes.
High Liners:
Philadelphia + 1 ½ R -165
Pittsburgh +1 ½ R -140
Oakland + 1 ½ -155
************************************************** ***********************
Yesterday's Result:
Stars: 2-2
1* Washington +1 Run -130 Won
1* NY Mets + 1 ½ Runs -120 Lost
1* Seattle -1 Run Even Money Lost
1* Oakland + 1 ½ Runs -130 Won
High Liners: 2-0 + the hook up
Washington +1 ½ Runs -160 Won
Detroit ML -200 Won
Parlay won and paid 143 /100
************************************************** *****************
The Record: at 100/game … 100/Star
4*
3 ½*
3*……….. 2-2 ……………... -35 ………….... -105
2 ½* ……. 2-5 ………….. -365 …………... - 910
2* ………. 15-10…………… +325…………….. +650
1 ½* …… 19-24 …………. -990 ………….. -1435
1* ……... 60-51 ……..... +535…………….. +535
½* …….. 9-5 ………….... +375 …………….. +190
Star Rated Overall: …107-97 …… -155 ……. -1075
High Line Plays: 72-27 + 2305
Linesmaker Specials: 4-3 + 160
All Plays: 183 - 127
High Line Parlays: 13 wins - 14 losses … +1780
Top Daily Plays: 26-19
Run Line Star Plays: 47-41
Middle Opportunities : 4 … no middles won … -205 in vig lost
Net Net :
+3885 if stars were played at a flat 100 per game
+2965 if stars played at 100 / Star
As Always,
Best of Luck
-cb
It's always noon somewhere! 
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