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No play yesterday, because I really didn't see anything with more than moderate value - the two games I was looking at went 1-1 (the Phillies and Yankees), but I couldn't pull the trigger on either one, so I just took a day off.
Baseball Play of the Day (25-21, +7.48*)
Kansas City Royals +1.5 (+104) (Affeldt/Verlander)
The Royals are a joke, as we all know. It's very possible that they will finish this season with the worst record in MLB history.
Still, there is a very viable reason that I am making this play. Detroit's 9-2 record against LHSP is perhaps the most misleading stat around. They are only averaging 3.6 rpg in those 11 games. Five of those games were 1-run victories, hence the runline play.
Meanwhile, the Royals are above .500, and are averaging 5.7 rpg at home against RHSP, and I like their chances of putting up some runs in this one, even against Justin Verlander, who is very good when he is on.
Jeremy Affeldt actually isn't that bad a pitcher. He always gives his team a chance to win. The Royals are 4-3 in his starts (the losses were to NYY, CWS, and CLE), including 3-0 at home. I think there is value in the Royals +168, but I would rather take the + odds and the 1.5 runs, especially with a team that is finding ways to lose against a team that is finding ways to win.
Good luck everyone!
Baseball Play of the Day (25-21, +7.48*)
Kansas City Royals +1.5 (+104) (Affeldt/Verlander)
The Royals are a joke, as we all know. It's very possible that they will finish this season with the worst record in MLB history.
Still, there is a very viable reason that I am making this play. Detroit's 9-2 record against LHSP is perhaps the most misleading stat around. They are only averaging 3.6 rpg in those 11 games. Five of those games were 1-run victories, hence the runline play.
Meanwhile, the Royals are above .500, and are averaging 5.7 rpg at home against RHSP, and I like their chances of putting up some runs in this one, even against Justin Verlander, who is very good when he is on.
Jeremy Affeldt actually isn't that bad a pitcher. He always gives his team a chance to win. The Royals are 4-3 in his starts (the losses were to NYY, CWS, and CLE), including 3-0 at home. I think there is value in the Royals +168, but I would rather take the + odds and the 1.5 runs, especially with a team that is finding ways to lose against a team that is finding ways to win.
Good luck everyone!
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