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Sorry for the length...
I always feel weird just throwing up my plays without explanation, as I always feel like we are all here to help each other win, and the more information provided the better. Anyway, in baseball I use a system I created three years ago to help isolate plays be creating anticipated run differentials that I then research and decide to play or not. At some point, I will put up a web interface to the database so people can use it if they want (for free of course…) But for now, I will just post the raw data run differentials with my plays if people have any interest.
The primary stats I use are Starters ERA (Season), Starters ERA (Last 3 starts), Anticipated innings pitched by starter (based on qualified pitcher rankings and IP), Bullpen ERA (Season), Bullpen ERA (Last 15 games), Anticipated innings pitched by bullpen (9-starters innings), % wins after a win, % wins after a loss, Strength at home, Strength on road.
These stats are all plugged into an algorithm that I am constantly adjusting but is basically: (starters anticipated runs per inning * anticipated # of innings pitched by starter) + (bullpens anticipated runs per inning * anticipated # of innings pitched by bullpen) factored by a % chance of winning created with an algorithm using % wins after a win, % wins after a loss, strength at home, strength on road, recent streak values.
I do not play plays only based on the system. Rather, I take the raw run differentials (which I will begin posting) and begin ruling out games based on factors not included in the system, primarily available lines and then baseball factors like a particular starter has a horrible history against a particular team, or the wind is gusting out to center with a fly-ball pitcher, etc. And usually I am left with 1-4 plays which I post. Anyway, sorry to bore you with all of this, but I figured I would begin posting the raw data with my plays instead of just throwing them out with no explanation…
So, my plays for today are:
MLB 46-36-7
Reds -1 -130 (260 to win 200)
Dodgers -109 (109 to win 100)
Good luck everyone!
Run Differential Predictions (Again, just a tool, I do not plays these automatically)
(performance of posted tracked here with 1 unit plays on ML,1RL,1.5RL using Pinnacle)
Win by 4+
Reds -155,-1 -130, -1.5 -101
Win by 3+
No Teams
Win by 2+
Dodgers -109, -1 +115, -1.5 +143
Astros -135, -1 +106, -1.5 +156
Win by 1+
Braves -260, -1 -201, -1.5 -120
Red Sox -121, -1 +103, -1.5 +133
Indians -201, -1 -151, -1.5 -102
White Sox -144, -1 -119, -1.5 +109
Tigers +127, +1 -109, +1.5 -141
All other games even…
I always feel weird just throwing up my plays without explanation, as I always feel like we are all here to help each other win, and the more information provided the better. Anyway, in baseball I use a system I created three years ago to help isolate plays be creating anticipated run differentials that I then research and decide to play or not. At some point, I will put up a web interface to the database so people can use it if they want (for free of course…) But for now, I will just post the raw data run differentials with my plays if people have any interest.
The primary stats I use are Starters ERA (Season), Starters ERA (Last 3 starts), Anticipated innings pitched by starter (based on qualified pitcher rankings and IP), Bullpen ERA (Season), Bullpen ERA (Last 15 games), Anticipated innings pitched by bullpen (9-starters innings), % wins after a win, % wins after a loss, Strength at home, Strength on road.
These stats are all plugged into an algorithm that I am constantly adjusting but is basically: (starters anticipated runs per inning * anticipated # of innings pitched by starter) + (bullpens anticipated runs per inning * anticipated # of innings pitched by bullpen) factored by a % chance of winning created with an algorithm using % wins after a win, % wins after a loss, strength at home, strength on road, recent streak values.
I do not play plays only based on the system. Rather, I take the raw run differentials (which I will begin posting) and begin ruling out games based on factors not included in the system, primarily available lines and then baseball factors like a particular starter has a horrible history against a particular team, or the wind is gusting out to center with a fly-ball pitcher, etc. And usually I am left with 1-4 plays which I post. Anyway, sorry to bore you with all of this, but I figured I would begin posting the raw data with my plays instead of just throwing them out with no explanation…
So, my plays for today are:
MLB 46-36-7
Reds -1 -130 (260 to win 200)
Dodgers -109 (109 to win 100)
Good luck everyone!
Run Differential Predictions (Again, just a tool, I do not plays these automatically)
(performance of posted tracked here with 1 unit plays on ML,1RL,1.5RL using Pinnacle)
Win by 4+
Reds -155,-1 -130, -1.5 -101
Win by 3+
No Teams
Win by 2+
Dodgers -109, -1 +115, -1.5 +143
Astros -135, -1 +106, -1.5 +156
Win by 1+
Braves -260, -1 -201, -1.5 -120
Red Sox -121, -1 +103, -1.5 +133
Indians -201, -1 -151, -1.5 -102
White Sox -144, -1 -119, -1.5 +109
Tigers +127, +1 -109, +1.5 -141
All other games even…
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