Tweet
I really wasn't planning on playing anyone today, but the public has pushed this line to where it is a must-play.
Baseball Play of the Day (22-19, +6.42*)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +106 (Kazmir/McCarthy)
First off, as Coverboy briefly mentioned in his thread, the oddsmakers are telling us the Devil Rays are the play in this game by opening them the favorite over the defending champions. Upon further review, I think it is clear why they feel TB wins this game much more than 50% of the time.
Let's start with Tampa's pitcher, Scott Kazmir. This may or may not mean much to you, but if Kazmir was starting for the White Sox and McCarthy was starting for the D'Rays, the White Sox would be more than a 2-1 favorite. That is how good Kazmir already is. He has been unbelievable lately (Earned runs in his last three starts: 1, 1, 0), and you can make an argument that he has been the best pitcher in the AL this season. In 5 of his 8 starts, the opposing team has managed 2 or fewer runs. Look at the pitchers/teams he has beaten this year:
Moyer (SEA) 1-0
Blanton (OAK) 3-1
Schilling (BOS) 5-4
Wakefield (BOS) 5-1
Elarton (KC) 7-2
Halladay (TOR) 5-2
On the other side, we have McCarthy, who has pitched against Tampa before. 3 innings, 8 hits, 5 runs, all earned. He will be on a short pitch count in this game, and the White Sox middle and long relief isn't impressive.
The White Sox aren't very good at hitting any LHPs, nonetheless Kazmir. They are averaging 1.8 fewer rpg against LHSPs, and they are only 6-7 in those games, despite having been favored in almost all games.
I always like going against a reliever who is making his first start of the season, and I'll pull the trigger here with the Rays.
Baseball Play of the Day (22-19, +6.42*)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +106 (Kazmir/McCarthy)
First off, as Coverboy briefly mentioned in his thread, the oddsmakers are telling us the Devil Rays are the play in this game by opening them the favorite over the defending champions. Upon further review, I think it is clear why they feel TB wins this game much more than 50% of the time.
Let's start with Tampa's pitcher, Scott Kazmir. This may or may not mean much to you, but if Kazmir was starting for the White Sox and McCarthy was starting for the D'Rays, the White Sox would be more than a 2-1 favorite. That is how good Kazmir already is. He has been unbelievable lately (Earned runs in his last three starts: 1, 1, 0), and you can make an argument that he has been the best pitcher in the AL this season. In 5 of his 8 starts, the opposing team has managed 2 or fewer runs. Look at the pitchers/teams he has beaten this year:
Moyer (SEA) 1-0
Blanton (OAK) 3-1
Schilling (BOS) 5-4
Wakefield (BOS) 5-1
Elarton (KC) 7-2
Halladay (TOR) 5-2
On the other side, we have McCarthy, who has pitched against Tampa before. 3 innings, 8 hits, 5 runs, all earned. He will be on a short pitch count in this game, and the White Sox middle and long relief isn't impressive.
The White Sox aren't very good at hitting any LHPs, nonetheless Kazmir. They are averaging 1.8 fewer rpg against LHSPs, and they are only 6-7 in those games, despite having been favored in almost all games.
I always like going against a reliever who is making his first start of the season, and I'll pull the trigger here with the Rays.
Comment