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Originally posted by Kaptain
Mathamaticly you're close to right.....If the line is -150 or less, then your way works, when it climbs, it changes....
What we are referring to, is not the dollar value so much, but the change in your percentile chances of covering.........
A home team winning by 1 run----does not get an at bat in the bottom of the 9th......therefore they have lost 11 % of their potential scoring......that cuts into your % chance of covering....the -1 allowance covers that scenario.......it's a push.....
I don't have the figures, but there are a lot of 1 run games.....
The - 1 1/2 with the visiting team, takes a different dimension, not money wise, but chances of winning wise....11.1 % to be exact....they got their full 9 innings of hitting......
Hope this explains and clarifys why we don't take home teams -1 1/2...........kapt
What we are referring to, is not the dollar value so much, but the change in your percentile chances of covering.........
A home team winning by 1 run----does not get an at bat in the bottom of the 9th......therefore they have lost 11 % of their potential scoring......that cuts into your % chance of covering....the -1 allowance covers that scenario.......it's a push.....
I don't have the figures, but there are a lot of 1 run games.....
The - 1 1/2 with the visiting team, takes a different dimension, not money wise, but chances of winning wise....11.1 % to be exact....they got their full 9 innings of hitting......
Hope this explains and clarifys why we don't take home teams -1 1/2...........kapt
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