3 Wise Men Monday 5/15/06 … 12-1 last 2 days … 2 team parlay paid 160 / 100

[CoverBoy]

Savvy

You're not wrong ... but I wouldn't lay 1 1/2 Runs with a home fave for any amount. That's a bad bet .

[Gookis]

Who's the new girl?

[Kaptain]

keep em coming Neil.........

I was eyeballing the possibility of Middling the Padres/D Rays game.....

Padres +1 1/2 -154 and
D Backs ML -157

Juice is pretty hi though....so I'll lay off..........

keep em coming my man----kapt

[the lumberjack]

thanks fellas!!!!!

[jcoor3]

GL to us!
Thanks!

[Tinman1960]

Good Luck Neil

[jcindaville]

Good luck CB

[CoverBoy]

Karl

You had that middle nailed !!!

Next time don't think twice and pull the trigger ... juice is the cost of doing business.

[LVJimmy]

Neil, thanks for the great weekend...another HL winner tonight with SD...see what happens when I lay off of those

[savage1]

You're not wrong ... but I wouldn't lay 1 1/2 Runs with a home fave for any amount. That's a bad bet .

Coverboy-my point is that betting 1/2 of your bet on the money line and the other half - 1 1/2 runs is exactly the same as placing your entire bet at -1.
If the team wins by 1 run, by more than 1 run or loses,, you net result should be exactly the same no matter which method you use;take a few sample lines and you will see what I mean.
I agree about laying 1 1/2 runs with a home team, but what I was trying to say that the person is NOT forced to lay 1 1/2 runs if at his sportsbook - 1 runs are not offered if he breaks up the wager as explained in my first sentence;he is actually giving only one run.
Am I misinterpeting what you said?

[CoverBoy]

Savvy

Clearly you misunderstand The 3 Wise Men Method ...

Every single play has a mathematical advantage built into it.

Laying 1 1/2 Runs with the home team relinquishes that edge.


You're not wrong ... mathematically speaking ... but in practicality yours is not the proper procedure.


Anyone who is unable to lay -1 Run should play that game on the Money Line , laying higher odds ... and should not entertain the very idea of laying -1 1/2 Runs at all.

Better this way than lay 1 1/2 for half the wager.

Kaptain Karl , Cheech and I are unanimous in our feeling.

Our method is 10 years old , has never had a losing season and we are the only 3 people in the world who know the System.


Anyone following 3 Wise Men must find an out ( offshore or otherwise ) who will honor 1 Run lines. These will play a very important role ... ESPECIALLY in the 2nd half of the season when the lines are extremely sharp.

[savage1]

I still don't understand the difference in the results under any scenario between laying 1 1/2 runs(for the home team) (if your book doesn't allow -1) for half the bet and the other half on the ML OR betting the entire bet - 1 runs.
The way I see it no matter what the result of the game, if you use the 1/2 and 1/2 method, you have in effect bet the exact equivalent of giving 1 run, and what you win or lose should be exactly equal either way.
Sorry if I don't understand, but take any game and show me where my thinking is flawed.
In short, by way of thinking, the term - 1 1/2 runs is meaningless if you do in effect want to give only 1 run, because that is what you are doing under either scenario.
In essence for example under the - 1 system, if the favorite wins by 1, you push.
Under the 1/2 and 1/2 system, you win the ML and lose the -1 1/2 runs, which will also equate to a push.

[savage1]

ps if you simply bet the entire bet on the ML rather than just 1/2 and the other half]- 1 1/2, you will lose more money if game loses than at the -1 run method and are NOT betting the equivalent of - 1 run, which is what the 1/2 and 1/2 method allows you to do in the first place.
Sorry to prolong this, but I would like an example.

[savage1]

One last thing-I may have missed something.
Just tell me the actual moneyline on the Houston -1 you gave out.
If it is around -150, then I can see my error, as the -1 run would then represent value and one would lose more money under the 1/2 and 1/2 method than in the - 1 method.
If the -1 runline is based on a line somewhat lower than -150, then I hold to my original contention.
I have a feeling though that your method is based on getting ouitstanding value with the -1 run as opposed to the 1/2 ans 1/2 method, and that is why your system came up with the play in the first place.
Is my revised thinking correct and/or should I ask Phil Schtool?

[Kaptain]

Savage

Mathamaticly you're close to right.....If the line is -150 or less, then your way works, when it climbs, it changes....

What we are referring to, is not the dollar value so much, but the change in your percentile chances of covering.........

A home team winning by 1 run----does not get an at bat in the bottom of the 9th......therefore they have lost 11 % of their potential scoring......that cuts into your % chance of covering....the -1 allowance covers that scenario.......it's a push.....

I don't have the figures, but there are a lot of 1 run games.....

The - 1 1/2 with the visiting team, takes a different dimension, not money wise, but chances of winning wise....11.1 % to be exact....they got their full 9 innings of hitting......

Hope this explains and clarifys why we don't take home teams -1 1/2...........kapt