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Three consecutive POD wins, including two nice dog winners in a row, but I really don't see any dogs that overly impress me tomorrow - my favorite three plays of the day are all small faves - along with the POD, I have strong leans on both NY teams (the Mets would have been my POD if not for the great run the Phillies are on - but Glavine is the perfect answer for the Phillies' LH bats).
Baseball Play of the Day (19-17, +4.35*)
Toronto Blue Jays -122 (Chacin/Blanton)
As I have said before, when I play a game the night before, it is usually from 5Dimes, because of their nickel overnight lines - just for clarification.
I would be really surprised if Toronto -130 is available an hour before this game starts. I could be wrong, but more often than not, I have been correct in predicting line movement.
Oakland has a nice team, but they have been dreadful against LHP. They have only beaten a LH starter once in 5 tries, and they are only averaging 2.4 rpg against LHSPs. The A's just lost two home games against the Devil Rays' left-handed starters. Gustavo Chacin is a pretty solid pitcher. The Jays have won 5 of his 6 starts, and the lone loss was at Yankee Stadium against Moose.
Joe Blanton has been a disappointment so far this season. After his first start was a shutout victory over the Mariners, he has been erratic at best. He was impressive in a 3-2 win at Texas, but the A's have lost all his other starts besides a 13-6 win over the Royals. His only other trip to Skydome was an 8-0 Blue Jay win.
I'll take the pitcher with a 1.20 lower ERA, pitching at home, with a better offense behind him, and lay the -122.
I hate, hate, hate to do this, but I'm making a small play on the:
Ottawa Senators -125 - available at 5Dimes, I'd play it at the -130 that most books are running.
I'm a huge Sabres fan, but it is miraculous that we lead this series 2-0. Buffalo was mildly outplayed in Game 1, and completely outplayed in Game 2 - except for Miller's brilliance in net. The shots were something like 44-17.
Normally, two road wins by the underdog in a series would be a warning sign against betting on the road team in Game 3, but not here. Buffalo and Ottawa are the two best road teams in the league, and the home ice means little here. The home ice is not worth anywhere near the 80 cents the books are placing on it. I don't have the research, but I would bet that playing every road team so far in the playoffs would have produced quite a nice profit.
The bottom line is that I would be very surprised if Buffalo could take a 3-0 lead here. The only reason not to make this a really big play is that Buffalo enjoys a strong coaching advantage here, and they are the deeper team. Those will be the two reasons I play them in Game 4 (especially on no rest) if they do lose Game 3.
Good luck everyone.
Baseball Play of the Day (19-17, +4.35*)
Toronto Blue Jays -122 (Chacin/Blanton)
As I have said before, when I play a game the night before, it is usually from 5Dimes, because of their nickel overnight lines - just for clarification.
I would be really surprised if Toronto -130 is available an hour before this game starts. I could be wrong, but more often than not, I have been correct in predicting line movement.
Oakland has a nice team, but they have been dreadful against LHP. They have only beaten a LH starter once in 5 tries, and they are only averaging 2.4 rpg against LHSPs. The A's just lost two home games against the Devil Rays' left-handed starters. Gustavo Chacin is a pretty solid pitcher. The Jays have won 5 of his 6 starts, and the lone loss was at Yankee Stadium against Moose.
Joe Blanton has been a disappointment so far this season. After his first start was a shutout victory over the Mariners, he has been erratic at best. He was impressive in a 3-2 win at Texas, but the A's have lost all his other starts besides a 13-6 win over the Royals. His only other trip to Skydome was an 8-0 Blue Jay win.
I'll take the pitcher with a 1.20 lower ERA, pitching at home, with a better offense behind him, and lay the -122.
I hate, hate, hate to do this, but I'm making a small play on the:
Ottawa Senators -125 - available at 5Dimes, I'd play it at the -130 that most books are running.
I'm a huge Sabres fan, but it is miraculous that we lead this series 2-0. Buffalo was mildly outplayed in Game 1, and completely outplayed in Game 2 - except for Miller's brilliance in net. The shots were something like 44-17.
Normally, two road wins by the underdog in a series would be a warning sign against betting on the road team in Game 3, but not here. Buffalo and Ottawa are the two best road teams in the league, and the home ice means little here. The home ice is not worth anywhere near the 80 cents the books are placing on it. I don't have the research, but I would bet that playing every road team so far in the playoffs would have produced quite a nice profit.
The bottom line is that I would be very surprised if Buffalo could take a 3-0 lead here. The only reason not to make this a really big play is that Buffalo enjoys a strong coaching advantage here, and they are the deeper team. Those will be the two reasons I play them in Game 4 (especially on no rest) if they do lose Game 3.
Good luck everyone.
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