Tweet
Nice winner yesterday with the Diamondbacks +113. Before posting today's play, a couple thoughts:
On to Thursday's POD. I'm holding my nose, and taking the:
Royals +137 (Affeldt/Silva)
As mentioned above, some teams have no business being more than the slightest of favorites. The Twins are one of those teams. They are surprisingly last in the AL in team ERA, and they struggle to hit left-handed pitching, averaging only 2.7 rpg in six games started by lefties.
KC also struggles with LHP - fortunately Silva isn't left-handed. The Royals average 1.7 more rpg against RHSPs than lefties, and all of their wins were against RH starting pitchers (as opposed to 0-7 against lefties). Silva hasn't been the toughest test this season - his ERA is 10.31.
Affeldt started against Oakland a couple days ago, and was pitching well, before the game was called due to rain. I think he will carry that momentum into this start.
- Some teams just cannot be trusted as more than a slight favorite - Washington is one. I remember someone had a big play on them last night, and, to be honest, I agreed with his thought process 100%. I will be playing on this angle (to a small extent) with my POD for Thursday as well.
- Aaron Harang is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.00 in road games. Josh Fogg is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA at home. The total in this game is 11.5. Both teams have been going under almost every game recently, including the 3-0 game yesterday. Trap or gift?
- Not to pick on the Cubs any further, but those with access to team totals may want to take a look at the Cubs TTR Under 5 tomorrow. I will be playing it very small myself. This team cannot score right now. Batista did not have his best stuff Wednesday, and the Cubs still only managed 1 run. Cruz looked pretty good in his first start, allowing 1 run in 5 innings of work.
- If you want to take a shot with a really nice dog price, the D'Rays look pretty damn good at +230 tomorrow. They aren't intimidated by the Yankees, and especially not Johnson, who they beat in 3 of the teams' 4 meetings last year. In the lone loss, they scored 11 runs (and still lost by 9). Waechter won 2 of his 3 home starts against the Yanks last season, as a dog of +170 and +220.
On to Thursday's POD. I'm holding my nose, and taking the:
Royals +137 (Affeldt/Silva)
As mentioned above, some teams have no business being more than the slightest of favorites. The Twins are one of those teams. They are surprisingly last in the AL in team ERA, and they struggle to hit left-handed pitching, averaging only 2.7 rpg in six games started by lefties.
KC also struggles with LHP - fortunately Silva isn't left-handed. The Royals average 1.7 more rpg against RHSPs than lefties, and all of their wins were against RH starting pitchers (as opposed to 0-7 against lefties). Silva hasn't been the toughest test this season - his ERA is 10.31.
Affeldt started against Oakland a couple days ago, and was pitching well, before the game was called due to rain. I think he will carry that momentum into this start.
Single Unit: 10-9 -1.34 units
Comment