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HEY GUYS LONG TIME NO CHAT. FIGURED I WOULD SHARE TODAYS CARD WITH ALL OF YOU.
3* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (33-10) 76.7% (+3163) LAST 3 YEARS IN BASEBALL.
2* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN THERE IS A FULL SLATE OF GAMES
VERY STRONG SELECTION.
1* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF MONDAY MLB SELECTIONS:
Opinions: HOUSTON -$131; SAN FRANSICO +$110
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L.A. Dodgers at Houston (-$131)
April 24, 2006 through April 26, 2006
LA: RHP Derek Lowe (1-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. HOU: LHP Andy Pettitte (1-3, 5.25 ERA)
vs 
Analysis
At 13-5 on the season, the Houston Astros are on pace with the 1986 club for the best record after 18 games. Indeed, the Astros come into this series fresh off a sweep over the Pittsburgh Pirates and now stand 5-1 on their current homestand with three more games to go. So far, the pitching has been outstanding in their last four games, Astros starters have allowed four runs over 28 2/3 innings for a 1.26 ERA. The offense has also done its part, with at least one home run in each of the last eight games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers come into this contest as 9-10 and are currently 3rd in a very week NL West division. The Dodgers recently took 2 out of 3 against Arizona, but still managed to be under .500 after their 9 game home stand. Their offense continues to struggle as they only managed to average 3 runs per game in their recent 9 game home stand.
Monday: Let me state from the start that the only issue keeping this from being a highly rated selection is the fact that the public is all over this game 80% to 20% and the line has moved very little. That means that for every 10 bets being placed on this game, 8 are on the Astros and considering that 92.6% of the betting public loses over a season, you never really want to be on the side that has all of the public action. That being said, at just -$131 its really hard to not at least make this an opinion selection. The Dodgers will send Derek Lowe to the mound, and guess what, he's never pitched at Minute Maid Park. LA manager Grady Little said it seems the left-field seats are even easier to reach than the Green Monster, something that opposing hitters would frequently do against Lowes outside breaking ball. Lowe said a pitcher could take advantage of the spacious dimensions toward right field at Fenway, but the only spacious area at Minute Maid is dead center. Meanwhile, Houston will counter with Andy Pettitte in Mondays matchup and he has an impressive career record of 2-0 with an impressive 1.80 ERA versus Los Angeles. He's only allowed three earned runs in over 15 innings. In his most recent outing, Pettitte took an undeserved loss in his most recent start against the Brewers on April 19, allowing two runs over seven innings in a 7-2 defeat. As the Houston Chronicle reports, "Andy Pettitte is such a perfectionist that pitching coach Jim Hickey says the veteran lefthander is walking around these days acting as though he's the worst pitcher in the world. Pettitte is his harshest critic, and he's definitely not pleased with his 1-3 start this year, even with three consecutive quality starts since his poor first outing. After giving up 10 runs (seven earned) over 4 2/3 innings in his 2006 debut, Pettitte has lowered his ERA from 13.50 to 5.25. As Pettitte takes the mound tonight at Minute Maid Park against the Dodgers, he understands that he overcame a 3-7 start last year to finish 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA." Sounds good to me!
Looking ahead: We may or may not look at Tuesday’s pitching matchup so we will have to wait for the line to be posting before giving that any further consideration. However, on Wednesday, we will take a hard look at the Dodgers when Odalis Perez takes the hill. Perez recovered from a terrible first start with a pair of solid efforts (1.46 ERA last two) and depending on the result of the first two games of this series, we will likely go off with a fat underdog price. That of course would be fantastic news for us since Houston lost money vs. lefties in 2005 (-$340 with 4.1 runs per game) and only scored one run in their only start against a southpaw so far this season. Check back each day before 2:00 p.m. eastern.
Monday’s Forecast: Los Angeles Dodgers 3, Houston Astros 7
MONDAY: OPINION SELECTION ON HOUSTON -$131
N.Y. Mets at San Francisco (+$110)
April 24, 2006 through April 26, 2006
SF: RHP Matt Cain (0-2, 6.75 ERA) vs. NYM: LHP Tom Glavine (2-1, 1.38 ERA)
vs 
Analysis
I have had very good success betting both against and with this Mets team so why change now. After winning nice underdog prices on San Diego on Friday and Sunday, we have to go right back to another unjustified underdog tonight. But before I get to this selection, lets quickly discuss why the Mets are the favorite. The Met’s will send Tom Glavine to the mound in the series opener who is enjoying his best season as a member of the Mets. Despite only having 2 wins, Glavine checks in with a miniscule 1.38 ERA after his first four starts. Indeed, Glavine has allowed only one earned run in his last 14 innings, having limited the Braves to an Andruw Jones homer and an unearned run in a 2-1 defeat Wednesday at Shea Stadium. A victory Monday would be Glavine's 20th against the Giants. He has beaten five other teams at least 20 times; Nationals (31), Reds (26), Phillies (24), Padres (22) and Pirates (20). This of course is not good news for a Giants team that has averaged just 2.0 runs per game in three starts against southpaws. The fact that the Met’s are also in first place in a better division cements the Giant’s as an underdog in this spot and likely for the series.
We simply cannot discount the fact that the Mets are a banged up team. Their starting second baseman Anderson Hernandez remains out for this series. Although Hernandez added little offensively to the Mets lineup, his defensive skills saved three games for the Mets this season, while his replacement, Kazuo Matsui is a defensive liability and an offensive disaster. Yesterday, Matsui struck out with the bases loaded late in the game. The Mets Cliff Floyd strained his ribcage while running in last Monday's contest against the Braves. Although Floyd has continued to play, his injury is having an impact on him offensively. Coming into this contest Floyd is batting just .212 on the season and only .205 against right handers. The Mets Carols Beltran, who has been limited to DH duty is still also not 100% and according to the New York papers today will likely sit out again tonight. The Mets star third baseman, David Wright tried to avoid Saturday's Jon Adkins pitch that drilled him under the arm pit, he strained a groin and it was that injury that was his predominant thought as he laid face down in the dirt. Both that strain and the bruise from the pitch were barking at him Sunday when he went 2- for -4 (with the help of favorable scoring on one grounder) with a double on Sunday. According to the New York Post, he's day to day and should stay in the lineup, “but he's not quite 100%.”
Its also important to mention that the Mets have always struggled on the West coast. Mets' all-time California record including games played in Oakland last season and Anaheim in 2003 and excluding three games against the Padres played in Mexico in 1996, at 312-426, a .422 winning percentage. An to make matter’s worse, within those games, the Mets have had even a harder time posting wins in San Fransico. Indeed, the Mets only have one more victory, four, in San Francisco in the last six seasons than the Giants ballpark has names. Their records in AT&T (formerly SBC, formerly Pac Bell) Park are 0-4 in 2000, 0-3 in 2001 and again in 2002, 2-2 in 2003, and 1-2 in each of the last two seasons. Given all of the above, this is some nice value on the home team.
Monday’s Forecast: New York Mets 1, San Francisco Giants 4
MONDAY: OPINION SELECTION ON SAN FRANCISCO +$110
3* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (33-10) 76.7% (+3163) LAST 3 YEARS IN BASEBALL.
2* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN THERE IS A FULL SLATE OF GAMES
VERY STRONG SELECTION.
1* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
-----------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF MONDAY MLB SELECTIONS:
Opinions: HOUSTON -$131; SAN FRANSICO +$110
-----------------------------------------------
L.A. Dodgers at Houston (-$131)
April 24, 2006 through April 26, 2006
LA: RHP Derek Lowe (1-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. HOU: LHP Andy Pettitte (1-3, 5.25 ERA)
vs Analysis
At 13-5 on the season, the Houston Astros are on pace with the 1986 club for the best record after 18 games. Indeed, the Astros come into this series fresh off a sweep over the Pittsburgh Pirates and now stand 5-1 on their current homestand with three more games to go. So far, the pitching has been outstanding in their last four games, Astros starters have allowed four runs over 28 2/3 innings for a 1.26 ERA. The offense has also done its part, with at least one home run in each of the last eight games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers come into this contest as 9-10 and are currently 3rd in a very week NL West division. The Dodgers recently took 2 out of 3 against Arizona, but still managed to be under .500 after their 9 game home stand. Their offense continues to struggle as they only managed to average 3 runs per game in their recent 9 game home stand.
Monday: Let me state from the start that the only issue keeping this from being a highly rated selection is the fact that the public is all over this game 80% to 20% and the line has moved very little. That means that for every 10 bets being placed on this game, 8 are on the Astros and considering that 92.6% of the betting public loses over a season, you never really want to be on the side that has all of the public action. That being said, at just -$131 its really hard to not at least make this an opinion selection. The Dodgers will send Derek Lowe to the mound, and guess what, he's never pitched at Minute Maid Park. LA manager Grady Little said it seems the left-field seats are even easier to reach than the Green Monster, something that opposing hitters would frequently do against Lowes outside breaking ball. Lowe said a pitcher could take advantage of the spacious dimensions toward right field at Fenway, but the only spacious area at Minute Maid is dead center. Meanwhile, Houston will counter with Andy Pettitte in Mondays matchup and he has an impressive career record of 2-0 with an impressive 1.80 ERA versus Los Angeles. He's only allowed three earned runs in over 15 innings. In his most recent outing, Pettitte took an undeserved loss in his most recent start against the Brewers on April 19, allowing two runs over seven innings in a 7-2 defeat. As the Houston Chronicle reports, "Andy Pettitte is such a perfectionist that pitching coach Jim Hickey says the veteran lefthander is walking around these days acting as though he's the worst pitcher in the world. Pettitte is his harshest critic, and he's definitely not pleased with his 1-3 start this year, even with three consecutive quality starts since his poor first outing. After giving up 10 runs (seven earned) over 4 2/3 innings in his 2006 debut, Pettitte has lowered his ERA from 13.50 to 5.25. As Pettitte takes the mound tonight at Minute Maid Park against the Dodgers, he understands that he overcame a 3-7 start last year to finish 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA." Sounds good to me!
Looking ahead: We may or may not look at Tuesday’s pitching matchup so we will have to wait for the line to be posting before giving that any further consideration. However, on Wednesday, we will take a hard look at the Dodgers when Odalis Perez takes the hill. Perez recovered from a terrible first start with a pair of solid efforts (1.46 ERA last two) and depending on the result of the first two games of this series, we will likely go off with a fat underdog price. That of course would be fantastic news for us since Houston lost money vs. lefties in 2005 (-$340 with 4.1 runs per game) and only scored one run in their only start against a southpaw so far this season. Check back each day before 2:00 p.m. eastern.
Monday’s Forecast: Los Angeles Dodgers 3, Houston Astros 7
MONDAY: OPINION SELECTION ON HOUSTON -$131
N.Y. Mets at San Francisco (+$110)
April 24, 2006 through April 26, 2006
SF: RHP Matt Cain (0-2, 6.75 ERA) vs. NYM: LHP Tom Glavine (2-1, 1.38 ERA)
vs Analysis
I have had very good success betting both against and with this Mets team so why change now. After winning nice underdog prices on San Diego on Friday and Sunday, we have to go right back to another unjustified underdog tonight. But before I get to this selection, lets quickly discuss why the Mets are the favorite. The Met’s will send Tom Glavine to the mound in the series opener who is enjoying his best season as a member of the Mets. Despite only having 2 wins, Glavine checks in with a miniscule 1.38 ERA after his first four starts. Indeed, Glavine has allowed only one earned run in his last 14 innings, having limited the Braves to an Andruw Jones homer and an unearned run in a 2-1 defeat Wednesday at Shea Stadium. A victory Monday would be Glavine's 20th against the Giants. He has beaten five other teams at least 20 times; Nationals (31), Reds (26), Phillies (24), Padres (22) and Pirates (20). This of course is not good news for a Giants team that has averaged just 2.0 runs per game in three starts against southpaws. The fact that the Met’s are also in first place in a better division cements the Giant’s as an underdog in this spot and likely for the series.
We simply cannot discount the fact that the Mets are a banged up team. Their starting second baseman Anderson Hernandez remains out for this series. Although Hernandez added little offensively to the Mets lineup, his defensive skills saved three games for the Mets this season, while his replacement, Kazuo Matsui is a defensive liability and an offensive disaster. Yesterday, Matsui struck out with the bases loaded late in the game. The Mets Cliff Floyd strained his ribcage while running in last Monday's contest against the Braves. Although Floyd has continued to play, his injury is having an impact on him offensively. Coming into this contest Floyd is batting just .212 on the season and only .205 against right handers. The Mets Carols Beltran, who has been limited to DH duty is still also not 100% and according to the New York papers today will likely sit out again tonight. The Mets star third baseman, David Wright tried to avoid Saturday's Jon Adkins pitch that drilled him under the arm pit, he strained a groin and it was that injury that was his predominant thought as he laid face down in the dirt. Both that strain and the bruise from the pitch were barking at him Sunday when he went 2- for -4 (with the help of favorable scoring on one grounder) with a double on Sunday. According to the New York Post, he's day to day and should stay in the lineup, “but he's not quite 100%.”
Its also important to mention that the Mets have always struggled on the West coast. Mets' all-time California record including games played in Oakland last season and Anaheim in 2003 and excluding three games against the Padres played in Mexico in 1996, at 312-426, a .422 winning percentage. An to make matter’s worse, within those games, the Mets have had even a harder time posting wins in San Fransico. Indeed, the Mets only have one more victory, four, in San Francisco in the last six seasons than the Giants ballpark has names. Their records in AT&T (formerly SBC, formerly Pac Bell) Park are 0-4 in 2000, 0-3 in 2001 and again in 2002, 2-2 in 2003, and 1-2 in each of the last two seasons. Given all of the above, this is some nice value on the home team.
Monday’s Forecast: New York Mets 1, San Francisco Giants 4
MONDAY: OPINION SELECTION ON SAN FRANCISCO +$110
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