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Sunday baseball............
A winning day on Saturday going 2-2 (+3 units). Cashed in a high priced, but very easy 5 STAR winner with the Angels to give me a very modest 3 game 5 STAR winning streak. These are my plays for Sunday...............
5 STAR: Atlanta (Maddux)(+$113) OVER SEATTLE (MECHE)
Greg Maddux gets the start for the Braves tonight and they are 12-4 in June the last 3 years when Maddux pitches. Maddux has not had a stellar season by his standards, but he has shown some signs of returning to form. In his last three starts he is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.15. Maddux is 6-1 versus teams outscoring their opponents by 1 or more runs per game on the season over the last 3 seasons and 17-4 in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times per game since 1997. The Braves are 6-0 after allowing 2 runs or less in 2 straight games this season, 9-2 against American League West opponents over the last 3 seasons, 8-3 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season and 9-1 when playing on Sunday this season. Seattle starting pitcher Gil Meche has been outstanding this season posting a 8-2 record, but his ERA in his last three starts is 4.50. He is 2-1 in those games, but in the two wins he received 17 runs of support from his offense. I just don't see him receiving that kind of run support today. The Mariners are struggling with the bats right now, they have only scored 8 total runs in their last 5 games. The Braves are also a very solid 8-2 in Game 3 of a road series this year and I look for them to take this game.
3 STAR: Houston (Miller)(+$115) OVER BOSTON (KIM)
I like the Astros to salvage the last game of this series against the Red Sox today. Houston starting pitcher Wade Miller has started to get back to last seasonS form in his last few starts, while Boston's starting pitcher Byung-Hyun Kim has not been able to find the groove as a starting pitcher as of yet this season. The Astros are 6-0 in road games after 3 or more consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and they are 46-16 after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 7-13 after scoring 8 runs or more this season, 10-16 in home games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 3 seasons and just 66-76 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. Look for Houston to avoid the sweep here!
2 STAR: St. Louis (Williams)(+$130) OVER NEW YORK (MUSSINA)
The Cardinals try to avoid the sweep today, after getting hammered in yesterday's game 13-4. Cardinals starting pitcher Woody Williams has been great in inter-league play, posting a record of 6-1 in those games. Williams has been pitching great this season as well, he is 8-1 on the season with an ERA of just 2.32, and he has had great control, walking only 16 batters in 13 games. The Yankees are only 4-8 versus a starting pitcher with good control who is giving up less than 1.75 walks per start this season. Williams is also 8-2 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Yankees starting pitcher Mike Mussina got off to a red hot start, but has struggle a bit lately, in his last three starts he is 1-1 but his ERA is 4.71. St. Louis is is 11-3 when revenging a road blowout loss versus an opponent of 8 runs or more over the last 3 seasons and 7-1 after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more this season. The Yankees are 2-5 after hitting 3 or more home runs in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons and the are only 3-7 when playing on Sunday this season. One other note about this game, the road team is 12-4 when scheduled home plate umpire Larry Vanover is calling the balls and strikes this season. Look for the Cards to get it done here!
2 STAR: Montreal (Vazquez)(+$165) OVER OAKLAND (HUDSON)
I have to give the Expos a shot at this price with their ace Javier Vazquez on the mound. The Expos are 6-0 with a tired bullpen that has thrown for 5 or more innings in two straight games over the last 3 seasons and they are 77-70 in road games with double revenge (2 straight losses against an opponent) since 1997. The A's starting pitcher Tim Hudson has struggled lately, in his last three starts he is 0-1 with an ERA of 5.50. Hudson has also been victimized by a lack of run support this season. The A's average just 3.1 runs per game in Hudson's 14 starts this season. Look for the Expos to get the upset here!
* ALL LISTED PITCHERS MUST START OR THE PLAY IS NO ACTION *
MLB RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 45-23 (+33.80 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 60-57 (+16.80 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 40-50 (-9.68 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 26-22 (+4.77 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 171-152 (+45.69 UNITS)
Good luck and happy Father Day!
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: Atlanta (Maddux)(+$113) OVER SEATTLE (MECHE)
Greg Maddux gets the start for the Braves tonight and they are 12-4 in June the last 3 years when Maddux pitches. Maddux has not had a stellar season by his standards, but he has shown some signs of returning to form. In his last three starts he is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.15. Maddux is 6-1 versus teams outscoring their opponents by 1 or more runs per game on the season over the last 3 seasons and 17-4 in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times per game since 1997. The Braves are 6-0 after allowing 2 runs or less in 2 straight games this season, 9-2 against American League West opponents over the last 3 seasons, 8-3 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season and 9-1 when playing on Sunday this season. Seattle starting pitcher Gil Meche has been outstanding this season posting a 8-2 record, but his ERA in his last three starts is 4.50. He is 2-1 in those games, but in the two wins he received 17 runs of support from his offense. I just don't see him receiving that kind of run support today. The Mariners are struggling with the bats right now, they have only scored 8 total runs in their last 5 games. The Braves are also a very solid 8-2 in Game 3 of a road series this year and I look for them to take this game.
3 STAR: Houston (Miller)(+$115) OVER BOSTON (KIM)
I like the Astros to salvage the last game of this series against the Red Sox today. Houston starting pitcher Wade Miller has started to get back to last seasonS form in his last few starts, while Boston's starting pitcher Byung-Hyun Kim has not been able to find the groove as a starting pitcher as of yet this season. The Astros are 6-0 in road games after 3 or more consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and they are 46-16 after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 7-13 after scoring 8 runs or more this season, 10-16 in home games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 3 seasons and just 66-76 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. Look for Houston to avoid the sweep here!
2 STAR: St. Louis (Williams)(+$130) OVER NEW YORK (MUSSINA)
The Cardinals try to avoid the sweep today, after getting hammered in yesterday's game 13-4. Cardinals starting pitcher Woody Williams has been great in inter-league play, posting a record of 6-1 in those games. Williams has been pitching great this season as well, he is 8-1 on the season with an ERA of just 2.32, and he has had great control, walking only 16 batters in 13 games. The Yankees are only 4-8 versus a starting pitcher with good control who is giving up less than 1.75 walks per start this season. Williams is also 8-2 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Yankees starting pitcher Mike Mussina got off to a red hot start, but has struggle a bit lately, in his last three starts he is 1-1 but his ERA is 4.71. St. Louis is is 11-3 when revenging a road blowout loss versus an opponent of 8 runs or more over the last 3 seasons and 7-1 after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more this season. The Yankees are 2-5 after hitting 3 or more home runs in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons and the are only 3-7 when playing on Sunday this season. One other note about this game, the road team is 12-4 when scheduled home plate umpire Larry Vanover is calling the balls and strikes this season. Look for the Cards to get it done here!
2 STAR: Montreal (Vazquez)(+$165) OVER OAKLAND (HUDSON)
I have to give the Expos a shot at this price with their ace Javier Vazquez on the mound. The Expos are 6-0 with a tired bullpen that has thrown for 5 or more innings in two straight games over the last 3 seasons and they are 77-70 in road games with double revenge (2 straight losses against an opponent) since 1997. The A's starting pitcher Tim Hudson has struggled lately, in his last three starts he is 0-1 with an ERA of 5.50. Hudson has also been victimized by a lack of run support this season. The A's average just 3.1 runs per game in Hudson's 14 starts this season. Look for the Expos to get the upset here!
* ALL LISTED PITCHERS MUST START OR THE PLAY IS NO ACTION *
MLB RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 45-23 (+33.80 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 60-57 (+16.80 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 40-50 (-9.68 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 26-22 (+4.77 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 171-152 (+45.69 UNITS)
Good luck and happy Father Day!
John
EZWINNERS.com
:angryfire start today, need the Braves to come through to keep the damage to a minimum.
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