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A solid night on Friday, going 4-1 (+3.6 units). These are my plays for Saturday's action.........
5 STAR: ANAHEIM (ORTIZ)(-$200) OVER New York (Roach)
I know this is a high price, but I just can't see the Mets winning this game. This is the 1st major league start for the Mets starting pitcher Jason Roach. Roach is a failed hitter turned pitcher, he was just called up for AAA Norfolk on Thursday. At Norfolk he was 4-2, but had one of the higher ERA's of their starting pitchers at 4.25. Anaheim has been swinging the bats well and should be able to get to the rookie and get into the Mets bullpen. The Mets bullpen has been terrible on the road, their road ERA is 5.48. The Angels starter Ramon Ortiz looks to be coming around, having won his last two outings and should do a good job against the New York lineup. One final stat, Anaheim is 20-1 as a home favorite of -200 to -250 over the last 3 seasons. Lay the wood here!
2 STAR: St. Louis (Morris)(+$115) OVER NEW YORK (PETTITTE)
Tough spot here emotionally for the Yankees to get up for this day game after finally getting win #300 for the Rocket. The Cards will be ready to play with their ace Matt Morris on the mound today. Morris is 6-1 versus American League teams scoring 5.2 or more runs per game on the season over the last three years. The Yankees are 2-6 in home games versus a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season and 3-8 versus a starting pitcher with good control who gives up less than 1.75 walks per start this season. New York starting pitcher Andy Pettitte has not pitched well lately, allowing 8 runs in his last 8 1/3 innings and the Cardinals have feasted on left handed starting pitchers this season, with a team batting average of .320 and scoring 7.9 runs per game against the south paws. Look for the Cards to take this one!
2 STAR: Houston (Redding)(+$140) OVER BOSTON (LOWE)
The Astro's starting pitcher Tim Redding has pitched very well on the road this season where he is 5-1 and Houston as a team has been playing very good baseball. The Astros are 37-18 in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Boston is only 25-52 when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 54% to 62% over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are also 0-6 versus a National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 3 seasons, 12-18 in home games in June over the last 3 seasons and 22-32 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. Derrick Lowe is also only 3-7 in home games when playing on Saturday since 1997. I look for the Astros to get the road win here!
2 STAR: Philadelphia (Wolf)(-$125) OVER CINCINNATI (GRAVES)
The Phillies got hammered by the Reds yesterday 15-1, but I look for them to bounce back today. Including yesterday's loss, the Phillies are still 8-2 in games played at Cincinnati over the last three seasons and they face the Reds struggling starting pitcher Danny Graves today. Graves has not been pitching well, losing his last three starts and has an ERA of 7.05 at home this season. Philadelphia starting pitcher Randy Wolf has had success against the Reds in the past, in his career Wolf is 3-1 when starting against Cincinnati with an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 0.915. Wolf is also 10-3 versus National League teams scoring 4.8 or more runs per game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 7-1 on Saturday's this season, while the Reds are only 2-7 when playing on a Saturday this season. I like the Phillies to get the win here!
MLB RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 44-23 (+28.80 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 60-57 (+16.80 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 39-48 (-7.68 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 26-22 (+4.77 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 169-150 (+42.69 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $4269.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: ANAHEIM (ORTIZ)(-$200) OVER New York (Roach)
I know this is a high price, but I just can't see the Mets winning this game. This is the 1st major league start for the Mets starting pitcher Jason Roach. Roach is a failed hitter turned pitcher, he was just called up for AAA Norfolk on Thursday. At Norfolk he was 4-2, but had one of the higher ERA's of their starting pitchers at 4.25. Anaheim has been swinging the bats well and should be able to get to the rookie and get into the Mets bullpen. The Mets bullpen has been terrible on the road, their road ERA is 5.48. The Angels starter Ramon Ortiz looks to be coming around, having won his last two outings and should do a good job against the New York lineup. One final stat, Anaheim is 20-1 as a home favorite of -200 to -250 over the last 3 seasons. Lay the wood here!
2 STAR: St. Louis (Morris)(+$115) OVER NEW YORK (PETTITTE)
Tough spot here emotionally for the Yankees to get up for this day game after finally getting win #300 for the Rocket. The Cards will be ready to play with their ace Matt Morris on the mound today. Morris is 6-1 versus American League teams scoring 5.2 or more runs per game on the season over the last three years. The Yankees are 2-6 in home games versus a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season and 3-8 versus a starting pitcher with good control who gives up less than 1.75 walks per start this season. New York starting pitcher Andy Pettitte has not pitched well lately, allowing 8 runs in his last 8 1/3 innings and the Cardinals have feasted on left handed starting pitchers this season, with a team batting average of .320 and scoring 7.9 runs per game against the south paws. Look for the Cards to take this one!
2 STAR: Houston (Redding)(+$140) OVER BOSTON (LOWE)
The Astro's starting pitcher Tim Redding has pitched very well on the road this season where he is 5-1 and Houston as a team has been playing very good baseball. The Astros are 37-18 in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Boston is only 25-52 when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 54% to 62% over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are also 0-6 versus a National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 3 seasons, 12-18 in home games in June over the last 3 seasons and 22-32 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. Derrick Lowe is also only 3-7 in home games when playing on Saturday since 1997. I look for the Astros to get the road win here!
2 STAR: Philadelphia (Wolf)(-$125) OVER CINCINNATI (GRAVES)
The Phillies got hammered by the Reds yesterday 15-1, but I look for them to bounce back today. Including yesterday's loss, the Phillies are still 8-2 in games played at Cincinnati over the last three seasons and they face the Reds struggling starting pitcher Danny Graves today. Graves has not been pitching well, losing his last three starts and has an ERA of 7.05 at home this season. Philadelphia starting pitcher Randy Wolf has had success against the Reds in the past, in his career Wolf is 3-1 when starting against Cincinnati with an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 0.915. Wolf is also 10-3 versus National League teams scoring 4.8 or more runs per game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 7-1 on Saturday's this season, while the Reds are only 2-7 when playing on a Saturday this season. I like the Phillies to get the win here!
MLB RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 44-23 (+28.80 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 60-57 (+16.80 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 39-48 (-7.68 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 26-22 (+4.77 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 169-150 (+42.69 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $4269.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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