Why tonights Championship Game is gonna be a good one!

[Spearit]

Gonna post both sides of why UCLA or Fla wins tonight.
Updated: April 2, 2006, 9:52 PM ET

20 reasons why Florida will beat UCLA By Pat Forde


INDIANAPOLIS -- For a guy who just stumbled out of spring training and discovered the college basketball season three weeks ago, Gene Wojciechowski sure thinks he knows some things. I'm here to set him straight -- and tell him why Florida will beat the powder-blue pants off UCLA Monday night:

1. Find the weakness in Florida. Go ahead. I'll wait
The NCAA ranks all 326 full Division I teams in 15 statistical categories, and the Gators rank in triple digits in only one (they're 160th in turnovers at 14.6 per game). They're in the top 25 in eight categories, and lead the nation in field goal percentage. The Gators have size, athleticism, shooters, slashers, a post-up game, a commitment to defense and a willingness to share the ball.

UCLA, in contrast, ranks 100th or lower in eight statistical categories. Most are related to offense, where the Bruins occasionally can be uglier than Bob Knight in a bikini.

2. Billy Donovan has been here before. Ben Howland has not
Don't underestimate the importance of having experience in this little rodeo. In the past 40 seasons, only eight coaches won the national title in their first Final Four trip. No first-time Final Four coach has won the championship since Jim Calhoun in 1999.

Donovan's ready for his second shot at his first national title.
This is Donovan's second trip to the title game, the other coming in 2000. What he learned that first time can help guide his team from the giddiness of a Saturday victory through a Sunday of game prep and a Monday of nerves.

"You realize how long of a time it is from last night's game all the way to Monday night," Donovan said. "It's a long time. Feels like a week. ... The big thing right now is just to try to make sure our guys get rest, narrow their focus, try to give them some things they can take into the game and get prepared to play."

3. Banners don't win championships, players do Tradition is a valuable thing to have on your side in the banter between fans. But UCLA's 11 national championships won't help the Bruins one iota come tipoff Monday. Forget John Wooden's gazillion titles; most of the guys playing in this game have dim-at-best memories of the title UCLA won under Jim Harrick 11 years ago.

Florida's players were careful Sunday to avoid repeating "Big Baby" Davis' complete dismissal of UCLA's tradition. But it was also clear that the boys from the football school are not in awe of what they see as ancient history.

"Right now, it's not about tradition," Joakim Noah said. "It's about playing basketball."

4. Florida has had the stronger tournament run
In numbers guru Ken Pomeroy's power ratings, he has a separate ranking for how teams have performed over their past five games. Coincidentally, that's the number of NCAA Tournament games Florida and UCLA have played. The Gators are No. 1. The Bruins are No. 3. In between? NIT champion South Carolina. Score two for the SEC.

Florida has won 10 straight games, has rolled four of its five NCAA opponents by at least 13 points and has played teams with a higher average RPI in the tourney than UCLA. The Gators' five opponents have averaged a 36 RPI, the Bruins' have averaged 40.

5. UCLA used up all its good karma escaping Gonzaga
The Bruins' desperate scramble to score the final 11 points of the game and extricate themselves from near-certain defeat was the Rally of the Year. That's nice.

But falling behind by 17 points against the champions of the West Coast Conference in a Sweet 16 game isn't the mark of a champion. Should UCLA get into a sizeable hole against Florida, don't expect a second miracle in the same tournament.

This is the Pac-10's year to be the bridesmaid. Ask the USC football team about that.

6. Balance
Florida has five players averaging double figures for the season. And for the postseason. And for the NCAA Tournament. You can't afford to slack off on any Gators starter defensively, or he'll bury you -- which is one of the reasons Florida ranks among the nation's leaders in assists. Every guy catching a pass is capable of putting it in the basket.

Taurean Green is one of a bunch of Gators who can hurt you.
Lee Humphrey, forgotten man, proved that Saturday night. The Florida fifth wheel stepped up and drilled six 3-pointers against George Mason.

7. Layups, dunks and Lee Humphrey
That's been Donovan's offensive mantra this NCAA Tournament. The Gators are pounding it inside, driving hard to the basket, getting high-percentage shots ... or kicking it to Humphrey to handle the perimeter shooting. UCLA's help defense is the best in the country and an amazing thing to watch -- but the Bruins better be careful not to help much off of No. 12.

"If they double down [in the low post], that would be very exciting to me," Humphrey said. "If I have a shot of choice, that's the one I like to take."

8. Corey Brewer: matchup trouble
The 6-foot-8 Brewer has had a great Tournament, averaging 14.4 points and making 50 percent of his 3-point shots. He killed George Mason Saturday night, and he'll be a handful for UCLA as well.

Brewer figures to have a quickness advantage over Cedric Bozeman and a three-inch height advantage on Arron Afflalo, so either matchup should be difficult for the Bruins. Unlike Memphis wing man Rodney Carney, Brewer won't check out mentally if the game gets physical.

9. The Bruins don't want to run with Florida
No matter what Ben Howland was saying Sunday about how his team likes to push the ball, it's not true. Certainly not in this game, against this team. Back to the Pomeroy numbers: UCLA is No. 306 in his tempo ratings out of 326 teams.

If Florida succeeds in heating up the pace with full-court pressure, UCLA will quickly be out of its comfort zone.

10. Florida doesn't mind grinding with the Bruins
The flip side would not be a disaster for the Gators. They've won a couple of key slogball games this postseason, outlasting South Carolina 49-47 in the Southeastern Conference tournament championship game and beating Georgetown 57-53 in the Sweet 16. So a game played at a ponderous pace would not spell doom for Florida.

11. This is not a dance team mismatch
Yes, UCLA's dance team is a No. 1 seed -- one of the strongest No. 1s in recent memory. Wow.

But it's not like Florida's dance team and cheerleaders would be better off wearing burkas. They were the class of the Minneapolis Regional and have represented the Sunshine State well in Indy. The blue garters the cheerleaders wear is a nice touch -- although it's tough to beat the powder-blue knee socks of the Bruins dancers.

12. Scratching the 10-year title itch
It's been a decade since Florida won the national title it most cares about, in football. It's also been a decade since Donovan's mentor, Rick Pitino, won his national championship at Kentucky. That symmetry beats anything UCLA has going for it.

13. The inside edge goes to the Gators
In the power-forward battle for Cameroon supremacy, Joakim Noah has height and length on Luc Richard Mbah a Moute -- and as athletic as Mbah a Moute is, he's not much more explosive than Noah.

Joakim Noah and Al Horford led Florida's stingy defense.
Center Ryan Hollins has emerged in this tournament for UCLA, but Al Horford is the better player. The Gators' interior backups are as good as the Bruins' as well.

14. Florida will actually run an offense
UCLA's suffocating defense has caused panic in most of its NCAA opponents, most notably Memphis and LSU. Those poise-poor teams couldn't quit their patterned stuff fast enough in the rush to freelance, which proved suicidal.

The Gators are hardly Pete Carrill-era Princeton with their execution, but they'll stick with their offensive gameplan in the face of defensive pressure. Point guard Taurean Green is disciplined enough to handle this game, and the rest of the starters all handle and pass well enough for Florida to run plays when the going gets tough.

15. Keep an eye on the arc Florida's last three opponents have shot a combined 11 of 55 from 3-point range (20 percent). UCLA, meanwhile, has made just 26 of 85 3s in this Tournament (31 percent). In UCLA's past three games that has dipped to 13 of 47 (28 percent).

Bottom line: The guard-centric Bruins are going to have to win this game inside the arc -- against an opponent that will not be held to 45 points. Do they have the scoring punch to do it? No.

16. Mascot superiority
Albert the Alligator is a more impressive sideline figure than that teddy bear UCLA trots out.

17. Bad losses
Florida has none. Of its six defeats, four were to NCAA Tournament teams and two were to NIT champion South Carolina.

UCLA lost to USC, which finished No. 117 in the RPI. Rival or not, that's bad.

18. Bad wins
Florida has none. It treated every weak sister on the schedule with the proper disdain, pounding through its nonconference schedule and handily dispatching the SEC's lighter weights.

UCLA has several. Any team that was life-and-death to beat Drexel (by one) and Wagner (by two) cannot win the national title. The Bruins also needed every second to beat hideously bad Washington State (RPI 166) at Pauley.

19. It's Donovan's time
He's one of just 12 active coaches to reach multiple Final Fours. He and Roy Williams are the only two coaches to reach the title game twice in this century. He built Florida quickly with star-studded recruiting, then tinkered with his formula to build the foundation more firmly around less-hyped recruits. He's ready to win a title. Ben Howland's time could be only a year away.

20. It's Florida's time
Arguably the state richest with athletic talent in America, it has never won a college basketball championship. There are scads of football titles strewn about the place, but nothing in hoops. It's time for the worshipers of the pointed ball to realize what can happen with the round one. Florida 65, UCLA 59.

[Spearit]

Need a reason UCLA will win? Here's 20
By Gene Wojciechowski
ESPN.com


INDIANAPOLIS -- Nothing against my colleague Pat Forde, who wears really cool Tommy Hilfiger shirts and, unlike me, has a reason to purchase a comb, but the man is drinking way too much Swamp Kool-Aid these days.

Bruins Jordan Farmar, left, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute celebrate their 59-45 win over LSU. At Sunday's news conferences at the RCA Dome, Forde was attired in Florida Gator blue and orange and often swayed in his chair, all the time humming, "We Are The Boys From Old Florida." When I mentioned I was picking UCLA to win Monday night's championship game, Mr. Two-Bits leaned close and said, "Nuh-nuh."

"Nuh-nuh?" I asked.

"Theme song from 'Jaws,' " said Forde.

Then he did the Gator Chomp and made a beeline toward the Florida locker room, presumably to check whether Joakim Noah was having a bad ponytail day.

Look, I think the Gators are a wonderful team, too. You don't win the SEC title, win 32 games, and reach the final line of the final Final Four bracket by accident. South Alabama, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Georgetown, Villanova and now George Mason can all provide testimonials.

But I'm waving baby blue UCLA pom-poms because, well, they make me feel pretty, and because I think the Bruins are just thismuch better than the Gators. Let me count the reasons why:

1. Symmetry
Monday marks the three-year anniversary of coach Ben Howland's hiring at UCLA. What better way to celebrate than with a postgame net-cutting ceremony?

2. Press Breakers
Florida is going to press UCLA. Florida presses everybody, and it uses as many as four different presses to create chaos, turnovers and quick scoring opportunities.

The Bruins haven't faced anything exactly like the Billy Donovan Blitz, but they have seen presses -- good ones, too. Arizona liked to press at times and UCLA beat the Wildcats three different times this season. Washington was good enough to employ full-court pressure and, yeah, I know, the Huskies swept their season series against the Bruins.

But I'm all about turning negatives into positives. UCLA has at least three players who can handle the ball -- Jordan Farmar, Darren Collison and Cedric Bozeman. Those experiences against the press -- and those three Bruin ballhandlers -- should minimize the damage of Florida's pressure.

3. Final Four History- This is good
The last three NCAA tournament champions have at least one thing in common: Each one defeated teams from the same conference to win the title.

In the 2003 Final Four, Syracuse beat the Big 12's Texas and then Kansas. In the 2004 Final Four, Connecticut beat the ACC's Duke and then Georgia Tech. And last year, North Carolina beat the Big Ten's Michigan State and then Illinois to earn the championship.

UCLA already has beaten the SEC's LSU in the national semifinal game. That leaves ...

Coincidence or fate?


4. The Lee Humphrey Factor
Anybody who thinks 6-foot-2 Gator guard Lee Humphrey is going to hit six 3-pointers against UCLA (as he did against George Mason in Saturday night's game) needs a CAT scan. The Gators made 12 of 25 treys against the Patriots (six of 10 in the second half), but there's no way that happens against a UCLA team that can guard the perimeter.

In all, 36 of Florida's 73 points against GMU came from beyond the arc. If I noticed that, I guarantee you Howland's staff did too. Look for the Bruins to pay particular attention to Mr. Humphrey, who has a school-record 109 treys for the season.

5. Experience
UCLA has just enough to make a difference.

The Bruins' starting lineup includes two seniors, two sophomores and a freshman. Florida's lineup features four sophomores and one junior.

"It's such an advantage to be older than your opponent, both mentally and physically," said Howland.

6. Slow or Fast
The Bruins have a reputation for being sort of a half-court team that doesn't make a move without first getting instructions from Howland on the sideline. That's true, up to a point. On occasion, UCLA does look as though it's tethered to Howland's every word.

But did you notice what the Bruins did against LSU, supposedly the most athletic team in the Final Four, maybe even the entire tournament? They outran them. UCLA coaches said Glen "Big Baby" Davis had to call two timeouts just to catch his breath.

"We were at 39 [points] in the first half, right?" said Howland. "We're going to have to do that [Monday night] because Florida wants to get up and down. They're going to try to press us, they're going to try to create a tempo that's up and down. That's great. We scored 86 points against Arizona at home. We can play any way you want to play."

7. The Wizard
How about this for a safety net: If Howland gets stuck in his preparation for the Gators, then the great John Wooden, who won 10 Final Fours as UCLA's coach, is only a phone call away.

8. Distinguished Guests
Maybe it will mean something, maybe not, but UCLA basketball royalty will be well represented here Monday. Bruins alums scheduled to attend the championship: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (by the way, big guy, you might want to think about ditching that goober hat you wore to Saturday evening's semi), Reggie Miller, Michael Warren, Ed O'Bannon, Bill Walton, Brad Holland, Ralph Jackson, Curtis Knight. Jim Harrick, who led the Bruins to their last hoops national title in 1995, will also be here, as will Troy Aikman.

9. The Streak
The Bruins own the nation's longest winning streak at 12 games. The last time UCLA had one of those kind of streaks, it won the national championship.

10. Adversity
Few teams, if any, have had to deal with more injuries than the Bruins. But they've gotten healthy, or relatively so, when it counts most: in time for the postseason.

"What I think it's done, it's made us better," said Howland, adding later, "It's allowed a lot of the players that may not have played as much of a role early in the season to get a lot of playing time, a lot of opportunity."

11. Defense
If defense wins championships -- and it almost always does -- then the Bruins are in wonderful shape. Just ask LSU, whose players looked as though they had a physical affliction while trying to shoot against UCLA in the semifinals.

In their five NCAA tournament wins, the Bruins have given up 44, 59, 71, 45 and 45 points. Scoreboard operators suffer finger atrophy when working UCLA games.

During the Tournament, opponents are averaging just 52.8 points and are shooting only 36.8 percent from the field and 17.5 percent from the 3-point line. Is that any good?

12. I'm Due
I haven't picked the Final Four winner since Gene Keady was combing his hair back, not sideways.

13. UCLA Understands
Florida outrebounded George Mason, 40-27. The Gators thrive on getting second and third chances. I'm guessing UCLA will do a much better job of limiting Florida to more one-shot possessions. Blockouts are going to be a huge factor, and the Bruins have the size and quickness to make that happen.

14. Joakim Noah
Noah had four blocks against an undersized George Mason team. His linescore was impressive enough (12 points, eight rebounds, two assists, one steal), but he also made his share of mistakes. I think he'll struggle against a UCLA tag-team frontline that includes 6-foot-7 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, 7-1 Ryan Hollins, 6-8 Lorenzo Mata and even 6-8 Alfred Aboya.

15. Unis
What can I say? I'm a sucker for those classic UCLA jerseys. Florida's, not so much.

16. Tradition
Several of Florida's players said tradition doesn't mean a thing once the game begins. It does at UCLA.

"Absolutely it means something," said Howland. "We're playing for ourselves. These kids are playing for one another. We're also playing for the program and for UCLA. There's no program that has more tradition or rich history of winning than UCLA. These kids know that and embrace that. They represent those four letters."

17. The Cedric Bozeman Factor
The 6-6 senior swingman is the inspirational centerpiece of UCLA. Bozeman missed last year because of a torn ACL. His teammates have made little secret of their desire to win a championship for him.

18. Ben Howland
I'm not saying Howland is a better coach than Donovan. But I am saying Howland is a good enough coach to make in-game changes that matter. And no way will his team be outprepared for the title game. In short, a toss-up.

19. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Gawd, I love typing that. He might be a freshman, but the kid is fearless. Better yet, he delivers night in, night out.

"With Luc, you get consistency," said Bozeman. "He's only a freshman. The sky's the limit."

"Whatever's asked of him, he can do," said Jordan Farmar.

20. The Bank
As in take it there with this prediction: UCLA 75, Florida 74.

[shoeman530]

good luck spearit

[Spearit]

My Pick is Fla and the Under- Is that square enuff?