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Spears Mon Totals & Dogs
Greetings 'Bazeball Fanz'
Due to all the international players- I feel this is how it will be pronounced soon enuff!
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2005 BaseBall Record- :
100= 37-21 200= 23-17 300= 12-15 400= 6-3
500= 4-2 600= 4-1 1000= 4-1
90-59 on Totals Alone
12-4 on 500 and above plays
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My first year of betting baseball (2005) was both entertaining and yet took the life out of me. I won over 10 grand in a week on my totals alone! It was wild!
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I pick this info up and endorse it.
- At home against division rivals. Teams play their best ball against division rivals and with the low scoring affairs in baseball, most division rivalry games are evenly matched.
- Good offensive production over the past week. 6-7 games because it gives you a good week of past offensive run production results.
- Our team is on a cool winning streak or is playing well over their past 10, 15, 20 games.
- Our team is going against a lefty or a righty which it does well against.-----------------------------------------------------------
This year I am playing several different systems based on dogs, totals and small favs. My bets will be structured on a separate sytem for each. I'll explain.
Dog System: Dogs will be chased! This worked well for me last year. I simply have columns and place each dog I am playing in each column. I may have 1- 3 columns going. I will stay with the series until I win. The value of the dogs in a series is the important thing. (My plays will begin with $40)
You see Underdogs over the past 7 seasons have gone 6917-9644 (-153 Units). If you understand that the -153 units refers to the juice Vegas gets, you will not be so surprised.
Favorites during that span are 9619-6891 (-641 units). So even though you see favorites winning at a strong 58% hit rate, betting on them will cost you more than 4 times your money.
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Now with these dogs I see Sandman-Linemover - and a couple of others that will be good to watch. I like to see what a dog has done in its last 10 games vs the fav's last 10 (no matter the pitcher)
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Notes from last year: Chuck with mostly favs but he engineers it on the -1 RL line and gets better value on a better % of winning bets. His system seemed to work well last year until the 2nd half where injuries and arm weariness etc were starting to cut in on profits. He adjusted nicely at the end.
The Wisemen (CB-Kapt-Cheech) were good in the first half and very good in the 2nd half of play last year but suffered with Interleague play which they will not be doing this year. They stay comfortably within the guidelines of money management and bring a solid capping value to BC folks. They ask that you play them on percentage of all plays - in other words if you are going to bet this year on baseball and you like their philosophy- ride them all the way don't just pick games out! Too many have done just that and have lost - remember "Chumps jump at the pretty stones"
Now- I see some new folks that have experience and are bringing their talents of capping to the BC scene. Other newbies may want to try their hand at it- caution - you will get very little views or respect by just picking favs. Give a little writeup- never hurts and shows you didn't just take it from another site- we have seen plenty of that mind you.
Keep a record and don't 'blaze' yourself or your plays and please restrain from the use of the word- lock or GOY - We are an informed crowd and can generally fade you and win!
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With that my dog of the day is:
Washington Nationals +145
Small Fav---
Milwaukee -132
Chicago Cubs -135
On Totals for 2006
I learned alot about totals last year and always eager to help anyone learn. Several folks here - actually were doing quite nicely on picks themselves once they got a little confidence.
I spoke last year about big fish in the area and did quite well-will continue this again. I know when all the parameters are there that it is going to be a good day.
Umpires- weather-trends-whips-era-bullpen availability and strength-injuries etc are gathered to make the selection. I generally like Unders and have won generously on those. Kapt usually sees the overs and if you see a play that we are both crossing on - probably best not to play it! Maybe it is the variables that we are looking at that makes the difference.
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2006 Totals 1-0
Chicago White Sox Over 8------------------------------Winner
Today I like:
St Louis Over 8.5
NY Yanks Over 7.5
Fla Under 7
SF Under 7 (Bonds is a variable on this one)--------------
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Have a great season everyone and if ya have questions fire away.
Due to all the international players- I feel this is how it will be pronounced soon enuff!
----------------------------------------------------------
2005 BaseBall Record- :
100= 37-21 200= 23-17 300= 12-15 400= 6-3
500= 4-2 600= 4-1 1000= 4-1
90-59 on Totals Alone
12-4 on 500 and above plays
----------------------------------------------------------
My first year of betting baseball (2005) was both entertaining and yet took the life out of me. I won over 10 grand in a week on my totals alone! It was wild!
-----------------------------------------------------------
I pick this info up and endorse it.
- At home against division rivals. Teams play their best ball against division rivals and with the low scoring affairs in baseball, most division rivalry games are evenly matched.
- Good offensive production over the past week. 6-7 games because it gives you a good week of past offensive run production results.
- Our team is on a cool winning streak or is playing well over their past 10, 15, 20 games.
- Our team is going against a lefty or a righty which it does well against.-----------------------------------------------------------
This year I am playing several different systems based on dogs, totals and small favs. My bets will be structured on a separate sytem for each. I'll explain.
Dog System: Dogs will be chased! This worked well for me last year. I simply have columns and place each dog I am playing in each column. I may have 1- 3 columns going. I will stay with the series until I win. The value of the dogs in a series is the important thing. (My plays will begin with $40)
You see Underdogs over the past 7 seasons have gone 6917-9644 (-153 Units). If you understand that the -153 units refers to the juice Vegas gets, you will not be so surprised.
Favorites during that span are 9619-6891 (-641 units). So even though you see favorites winning at a strong 58% hit rate, betting on them will cost you more than 4 times your money.
-----------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------
Now with these dogs I see Sandman-Linemover - and a couple of others that will be good to watch. I like to see what a dog has done in its last 10 games vs the fav's last 10 (no matter the pitcher)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Notes from last year: Chuck with mostly favs but he engineers it on the -1 RL line and gets better value on a better % of winning bets. His system seemed to work well last year until the 2nd half where injuries and arm weariness etc were starting to cut in on profits. He adjusted nicely at the end.
The Wisemen (CB-Kapt-Cheech) were good in the first half and very good in the 2nd half of play last year but suffered with Interleague play which they will not be doing this year. They stay comfortably within the guidelines of money management and bring a solid capping value to BC folks. They ask that you play them on percentage of all plays - in other words if you are going to bet this year on baseball and you like their philosophy- ride them all the way don't just pick games out! Too many have done just that and have lost - remember "Chumps jump at the pretty stones"
Now- I see some new folks that have experience and are bringing their talents of capping to the BC scene. Other newbies may want to try their hand at it- caution - you will get very little views or respect by just picking favs. Give a little writeup- never hurts and shows you didn't just take it from another site- we have seen plenty of that mind you.
Keep a record and don't 'blaze' yourself or your plays and please restrain from the use of the word- lock or GOY - We are an informed crowd and can generally fade you and win!
------------------------------------------------------------
With that my dog of the day is:
Washington Nationals +145
Small Fav---
Milwaukee -132
Chicago Cubs -135
On Totals for 2006
I learned alot about totals last year and always eager to help anyone learn. Several folks here - actually were doing quite nicely on picks themselves once they got a little confidence.
I spoke last year about big fish in the area and did quite well-will continue this again. I know when all the parameters are there that it is going to be a good day.
Umpires- weather-trends-whips-era-bullpen availability and strength-injuries etc are gathered to make the selection. I generally like Unders and have won generously on those. Kapt usually sees the overs and if you see a play that we are both crossing on - probably best not to play it! Maybe it is the variables that we are looking at that makes the difference.
----------------------------------------------------------
2006 Totals 1-0
Chicago White Sox Over 8------------------------------Winner
Today I like:
St Louis Over 8.5
NY Yanks Over 7.5
Fla Under 7
SF Under 7 (Bonds is a variable on this one)--------------
----------------------------------------------------------
Have a great season everyone and if ya have questions fire away.
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