Thursday ... Trends and Indexes

[pm530]

Trends & Indexes for Thursday, March 30

Best of Luck!

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Pro Basketball

Dunkel Index - NBA

THURSDAY, MARCH 30

Game 701-702: Phoenix at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 121.1; Indiana 117.8
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 213
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: San Antonio at L.A. Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 121.1; L.A. Lakers 121.8
Dunkel Line & Total: L.A. Lakers by 1; 192 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - College Basketball

Dunkel Index - NCAA Basketball
NIT Championship Game

THURSDAY, MARCH 30

Game 705-706: South Carolina vs. Michigan (in New York, NY)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 69.7; Michigan 68.7
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 1
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 3
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+3)

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - College Basketball (Saturday)

Dunkel Index - NCAA Basketball
Final Four

SATURDAY, APRIL 1

Game 811-812: LSU vs. UCLA (in Indianapolis, IN)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 72.5; UCLA 74.4
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 2
Vegas Line: LSU by 2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+2)

Game 813-814: George Mason vs. Florida (in Indianapolis, IN)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 69.2; Florida 75.4
Dunkel Line: Florida by 6
Vegas Line: Florida by 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-5)

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Dunkel Index - Hockey

Dunkel Index - NHL

THURSDAY, MARCH 30

Game 1-2: Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.88; Tampa Bay 11.98
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2); Neutral

Game 3-4: Washington at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.72; Montreal 12.47
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-1 1/2); Under

Game 5-6: Buffalo at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.40; New Jersey 11.30
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+1 1/2); Over

Game 7-8: NY Rangers at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.76; Ottawa 13.37
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-1 1/2); Under

Game 9-10: Detroit at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.44; Nashville 12.58
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+1 1/2); Over

Game 11-12: Los Angeles at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.61; Edmonton 11.43
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+1 1/2); Neutral

Game 13-14: Phoenix at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.79; San Jose 13.13
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-1 1/2); Neutral

[crswir]

Pro Basketball Trend Report
PHOENIX (47 - 23) at INDIANA (35 - 35) - 3/30/2006, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
INDIANA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
INDIANA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) second half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in non-conference games this season.
PHOENIX is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




SAN ANTONIO (55 - 16) at LA LAKERS (38 - 34) - 3/30/2006, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 9-8 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-8 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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College Basketball Trend Report
S CAROLINA (22 - 15) vs. MICHIGAN (22 - 10) - 3/30/2006, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all tournament games this season.
S CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 this season.
S CAROLINA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in March games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[crswir]

Pro Hockey Trend Report
ATLANTA (35-30-0-6, 76 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (38-29-0-5, 81 pts.) - 3/30/2006, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 9-2 ATS (+9.0 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game this season.
TAMPA BAY is 66-37 ATS (-7.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-7 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TAMPA BAY is 18-19 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-6 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 6-5-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.5 Units)




WASHINGTON (24-37-0-10, 58 pts.) at MONTREAL (36-27-0-9, 81 pts.) - 3/30/2006, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 0-12 ATS (+23.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
MONTREAL is 15-18 ATS (-8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-4 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-3-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)




BUFFALO (45-21-0-6, 96 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (36-27-0-9, 81 pts.) - 3/30/2006, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 11-4 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BUFFALO is 45-27 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games this season.
BUFFALO is 45-27 ATS (+11.7 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 20-9 ATS (+9.0 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
BUFFALO is 45-27 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 21-14 ATS (+37.3 Units) as a road underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 21-14 ATS (+37.3 Units) as a road favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 21-14 ATS (+37.3 Units) in road games against the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 19-13 ATS (+34.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 5-2 (+3.3 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 5-1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)




NY RANGERS (41-20-0-12, 94 pts.) at OTTAWA (48-16-0-7, 103 pts.) - 3/30/2006, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 33-47 ATS (-22.8 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 9-22 ATS (-15.8 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 15-34 ATS (-24.4 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-2 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 4-2-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.3 Units)




DETROIT (49-15-0-7, 105 pts.) at NASHVILLE (42-22-0-8, 92 pts.) - 3/30/2006, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 173-152 ATS (-72.5 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 27-7 ATS (+27.0 Units) as a home underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
NASHVILLE is 27-7 ATS (+27.0 Units) as a home favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
NASHVILLE is 27-7 ATS (+27.0 Units) in home games against the puck line this season.
NASHVILLE is 22-4 ATS (+22.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
DETROIT is 25-9 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a road underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
DETROIT is 25-9 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a road favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
DETROIT is 25-9 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games against the puck line this season.
DETROIT is 23-8 ATS (+10.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
DETROIT is 12-3 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games vs. division opponents this season.
DETROIT is 20-4 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a division game this season.
NASHVILLE is 8-15 ATS (-12.1 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 8-10 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 10-8-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
13 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+8.9 Units)

[crswir]

03/30/06 Predictions

Season: 679-335 (.670)

Phoenix 101, INDIANA 100
San Antonio 95, LA LAKERS 91




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TODAY'S FORECAST

Thursday, March 30, 2006
MST TV Hoops Index Forecast
6:05p TNTFSN Indiana* 1 over Phoenix
8:35p TNT San Antonio 1 over L.A. Lakers*

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NIT Championship Prediction

NIT: 30-8 (.789)

Thursday, March 30, 2006
at New York, NY
South Carolina 68, Michigan 63

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Today's Games
MST Our Favored Team Rating Sprd Our Underdog Team Rating
5:00p South Carolina** ESPN 99.1 3½ Michigan 95.6
* Home Team = +5 pts. ** Neutral

[Spark]

Thursday's NIT championship game
South Carolina shot 60% from floor Tuesday, easily beating the Cardinals 78-63, after falling behind Louisville 11-2; Gamecocks are defending NIT champs, facing Michigan team that showed no desire to play defense in middle of season, but has come on lately, holding Old Dominion to 27.8% from floor in easy win in semis, 66-43. Carolina was 14-14 on March 1, but 8-1 since; they have the better coach, Michigan is slightly better athletically up and down roster, as Gamecocks are down to eight scholarship players. Not sure the right team is the favorite here. Michigan is lot healthier, and they've been good when healthy. .

[crswir]

03/30/06 Predictions

Season: 401-224 (.642)

TAMPA BAY 4, Atlanta 3
OTTAWA 4, NY Rangers 2
MONTREAL 4, Washington 3
Buffalo vs. NEW JERSEY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Detroit vs. NASHVILLE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
EDMONTON 4, Los Angeles 3
SAN JOSE 4, Phoenix 3


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TODAY'S FORECAST

Thursday, March 30, 2006
MST TV Pucks Index Forecast
5:35p CSN Montreal* 1 over Washington
5:35p MSG Ottawa* 1 over N.Y. Rangers
5:35p FSN New Jersey* even with Buffalo
5:35p TS Tampa Bay* ½ over Atlanta
7:05p FSN Edmonton* 1 over Los Angeles
8:35p FSN San Jose* 1 over Phoenix

[Spark]

Hot Teams
-- Lakers won last four games, by 8,7,5,11 points; they won last meeting vs Spurs, 100-92 at Alamo March 10. Spurs won seven of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost five of their last seven games. Suns lost five of last six road games, and got blasted in their last two games, losing at New Jersey 110-72, Milwaukee 132-110.

Totals
-- Over is 12-4-1 in last seventeen Phoenix games; under is 6-1-1 in last eight Indiana contests.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Lakers' last seven games.

[Spark]

Hot Teams
-- Atlanta won eight of their last eleven games. Lightning won their last four home games.
-- Caps just swept pair of games vs Carolina (3-1/5-1) after they were 0-8 in previous eight games. Montreal won last four games outscoring foes 19-8.
-- Senators won five of their last six home games.
-- Red Wings won sixteen of their last twenty games.
-- Coyotes won four of their last five games. San Jose won eight of their last eleven games.

Cold Teams
-- Sabres snapped six-game losing streak last night. Devils lost last six games that followed a win.
-- Rangers lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Predators lost last three games, allowing 17 goals.
-- Edmonton lost eight of their last twelve games. Kings are 2-6 in their last eight games.

Totals
-- Under is 12-4 in Thrashers' last sixteen games, 1-6 in Tampa's last seven contests.
-- Four of last five Washington games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last twelve Buffalo games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Ranger games went over the total; under is 5-1-1 in Ottawa's last seven contests.
-- Eight of last twelve Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-5 in last thirteen Los Angeles games.
-- Over is 12-2 in Phoenix' last fourteen games.

[Spark]

Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.............
13) If I'm Jim Larranaga, I take my George Mason team on little field trip in Indy this week, over to Hinkle Fieldhouse, home of the Butler Bulldogs, where final game scenes in Hoosiers were filmed. Every piece of inspiration helps.

12) You look down the rosters of the four teams, and George Mason, by far, has the oldest kids, grade-wise. Why can't they win a national title?

11) We've talked a little bit about efficiency stats in college hoop this month; if you look at the Elite Eight teams, all eight finished in the top 15 in defensive efficiency. Out of 334 teams. That isn't a coincidence.

10) The balance of basketball power in the Big 12 has swung pretty well in last ten days. Oklahoma has a critical hire for the future of their program, replacing Kelvin Sampson, to maintain their position as top tier team in league.

9) You wonder if Steve Alford is kicking himself for leaving Missouri State to go to Iowa?

8) He had no way of knowing Bob Knight would implode at Indiana when he did, but if he had stayed in Springfield little longer, he definitely would have been coach of the Hoosiers after Knight. Timing is everything in life.

7) Little League World Series moved fences back 20 feet for this year. Is it possible to cork an aluminum bat?

6) Colts-Giants on Sept 10 will be first time two brothers are starting QBs in same game.

5) Packers have asked Brett Favre to commit one way or another for '06 by Saturday.

4) If he's hedging that much about playing, and you have a rebuilding team, isn't it time to move on, even with a legend like Favre?

3) ****** Unitas played for the Chargers, Joe Namath for the Rams, Joe Montana for the Chiefs. Green Bay might be better off, in their new regime, developing Aaron Rodgers and letting Favre play somewhere else, if in fact, he wants to keep playing.

2) Each NFL team will appear once on Monday Night Football this year; when it was on ABC, they only wanted teams who were good the year before.

1) Billy Donovan might petition the NCAA to hold the Final Four at Indy every year; last time he made Final Four, losing to Michigan State in '00 finals, it was also in Indy.