Monday ... Trends and Indexes

[pm530]

Trends & Indexes for Monday, March 27

Let's have a great week,

Best of Luck!

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Pro Basketball

Dunkel Index - NBA

MONDAY, MARCH 27

Game 701-702: Indiana at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.4; Miami 121.7
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 7; 187 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8; 192
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+8); Under

Game 703-704: Phoenix at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.4; New Jersey 122.7
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 2; 214 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 209 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+2 1/2); Over

Game 705-706: New Orleans at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 109.3; Utah 116.3
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 7; 195 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 6; 183 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-6); Over

Game 707-708: Washington at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 116.2; Golden State 118.4
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 1; 216 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+1); Under

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - Hockey

Dunkel Index - NHL

MONDAY, MARCH 27

Game 51-52: Buffalo at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.62; NY Rangers 11.71
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+1 1/2); Over

Game 53-54: Tampa Bay at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.66; Carolina 12.31
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1 1/2); Over

Game 55-56: Florida at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.18; Boston 10.96
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+1 1/2); Over

Game 57-58: Detroit at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.33; St. Louis 9.95
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2); Neutral

Game 59-60: Los Angeles at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.68; Vancouver 11.37
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+1 1/2); Neutral

[Spark]

Hot Teams
-- Nets won last eight games (6-2 vs spread) but who gave them Pistons/Suns on consecutive days?
-- Washington is 5-0 vs spread in game after last five losses. Golden State won four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Pacers are 1-5 vs spread in game after their last six wins. Heat is 4-11 against spread in their last fifteen games.
-- Suns lost three of their last four road games.
-- Hornets lost three in row, eleven of last twelve games. Jazz is 2-6 in their last eight games.

Totals
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Indiana games.
-- Seven of last nine New Jersey games stayed under the total, but seven of last nine Phoenix games went over.
-- Four of last five Hornet games went over the total.
-- Thirteen of last fifteen Wizard games went over the total.

[Spark]

Hot Teams
-- Tampa Bay won four of last five games; their last three all got into overtime.
-- Panthers won five games in row, eight of last nine contests; their last four wins are all by one goal.
-- Red Wings won fifteen of their last nineteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Sabres lost last five games, outscored 21-10. Rangers lost last three games and nine of last 12, allowing 13 goals in last three.
-- Carolina lost six of their last nine games.
-- Bruins lost twelve of their last sixteen games.
-- St Louis lost last six games, scoring total of nine goals.
-- Canucks lost seven of their last ten games. Kings lost seven of their last nine road games.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Ranger games went over the total.
-- Last six Tampa Bay games all went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Boston games went over the total; in last 18 Florida games, over is 11-6-1.
-- Eight of last eleven Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 14-4-1 in last nineteen Vancouver games.

[Spark]

Monday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........
13) I have lot of charts, books, reference material I use for this website, but I don't have any charts that measure the heart or mental toughness of a team, which is where I missed the boat on this George Mason team. What a run they've made.

12) You figured they were dead at the half, when UConn got up nine; you figured they were dead after regulation, with the Patriots losing lead after they had ball and 4-point lead with under a minute left. But they kept playing, kept fighting, and are now the greatest Cinderella story in Final Four history.

11) UConn was ripe to lose because they just didn't play at a high level for 40 minutes, but still, this was a huge upset, the biggest upset in regional final since Utah drilled Arizona back in '98, as a 10.5-point underdog.

10) In fact, Utah's 76-51 win over Arizona is only upset that was bigger than Mason's, over last 80 regional finals.

9) Jim Nantz has already compared George Mason to Hickory High in Hoosiers; Coach Larranaga does look a little bit like Gene Hackman, doesn't he?

8) Villanova got bad deal when they were put in region with a dome site for regional; teams that live and die on its shooting are less fortunate in domed stadiums; poor background.

7) Calhoun is now 2-5 in regional finals; the two he won were against 10-seed Gonzaga and 8-seed Alabama; they won the national title both times.

6) The five regional finals he lost, he was 1-seed twice, and a 2-seed three times; he lost to a 1,1,3,1,11 seed. Seven regional finals in 20 years is really good, but 2-5 record there isn't.

5) The last time there was a Final Four with no #1 seeds was in 1980; UCLA was in that one, too, losing final to Louisville.

4) I saw Billy Donovan play in a high school game back in '83 in Glens Falls; his St Agnes team played a lot like Florida is playing now, 3's and pressure defense, and it wasn't even in vogue back then.

By the way, if I was starting a college hoop team, and I had a choice between Adam Morrison, JJ Redick and Joakim Noah, I'd take Noah in a beartbeat.

3) Before we hand the NL East crown to the Mets, remember that Pedro Martinez made his spring debut Sunday, so he is going to be a bit behind going into the season. They also got rid of Benson and Seo, so their starting pitching is not deep.

2) It was good to see Stephen Ames win PLAYERS' title, after the drubbing he took at Match Play (9 and 8) in first round vs Eldrick Woods. Nice comeback in short period of time.

1) Hell, I wouldn't have picked George Mason to make Final Four, even if my name was George Mason.

[crswir]

Pro Basketball Trend Report
INDIANA (35 - 33) at MIAMI (46 - 23) - 3/27/2006, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 97-73 ATS (+16.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 75-55 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 37-28 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
INDIANA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 7-6 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 12-3 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




PHOENIX (47 - 21) at NEW JERSEY (40 - 28) - 3/27/2006, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHOENIX is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 4-1 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




NEW ORLEANS (32 - 36) at UTAH (32 - 37) - 3/27/2006, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in March games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 65-84 ATS (-27.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 23-38 ATS (-18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 30-45 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-4 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




WASHINGTON (35 - 33) at GOLDEN STATE (30 - 38) - 3/27/2006, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 82-114 ATS (-43.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 77-52 ATS (+19.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[crswir]

Pro Hockey Trend Report
BUFFALO (44-21-0-5, 93 pts.) at NY RANGERS (39-20-0-12, 90 pts.) - 3/27/2006, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 44-26 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games this season.
BUFFALO is 44-26 ATS (+12.2 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 16-7 ATS (+7.5 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
BUFFALO is 19-8 ATS (+9.4 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
BUFFALO is 44-26 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 21-13 ATS (+36.1 Units) as a road underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 21-13 ATS (+36.1 Units) as a road favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 21-13 ATS (+36.1 Units) in road games against the puck line this season.
BUFFALO is 19-12 ATS (+33.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
NY RANGERS are 41-69 ATS (-73.2 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 65-101 ATS (-83.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 90-104 ATS (+90.0 Units) as a home underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 138-156 ATS (+138.0 Units) as a home favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 163-194 ATS (+163.0 Units) in home games against the puck line since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 51-66 ATS (+51.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 31-47 ATS (-37.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 4-9 ATS (-9.4 Units) in March games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 5-2 (+3.1 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 5-2-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.8 Units)




TAMPA BAY (38-28-0-5, 81 pts.) at CAROLINA (46-18-0-6, 98 pts.) - 3/27/2006, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 46-24 ATS (+3.6 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 46-24 ATS (+10.2 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line this season.
CAROLINA is 14-8 ATS (+22.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CAROLINA is 46-24 ATS (+18.1 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line this season.
CAROLINA is 27-7 ATS (+27.0 Units) as a home underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
CAROLINA is 27-7 ATS (+27.0 Units) as a home favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
CAROLINA is 27-7 ATS (+27.0 Units) in home games against the puck line this season.
CAROLINA is 27-7 ATS (+27.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-19 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 66-36 ATS (+18.2 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 79-90 ATS (-49.0 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 6-4 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 7-2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+7.1 Units)




FLORIDA (31-29-0-10, 72 pts.) at BOSTON (28-32-0-12, 68 pts.) - 3/27/2006, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 158-178 ATS (-62.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
FLORIDA is 72-100 ATS (-54.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1996.
FLORIDA is 173-249 ATS (-81.2 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line since 1996.
FLORIDA is 39-81 ATS (-47.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
BOSTON is 7-22 ATS (+29.3 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
BOSTON is 79-82 ATS (-44.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
BOSTON is 29-41 ATS (+29.0 Units) as a home favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 8-18 ATS (+30.8 Units) after a division game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 4-3 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 3-2-2 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.4 Units)




DETROIT (48-15-0-7, 103 pts.) at ST LOUIS (20-38-0-11, 51 pts.) - 3/27/2006, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 172-152 ATS (-72.9 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
DETROIT is 19-4 ATS (+11.5 Units) after a division game this season.
DETROIT is 24-9 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a road underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
DETROIT is 24-9 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a road favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
DETROIT is 24-9 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games against the puck line this season.
DETROIT is 22-8 ATS (+10.0 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
DETROIT is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games vs. division opponents this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 10-2 (+4.3 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 9-2-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)




LOS ANGELES (38-28-0-5, 81 pts.) at VANCOUVER (38-28-0-6, 82 pts.) - 3/27/2006, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 4-13 ATS (-12.4 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
VANCOUVER is 1-7 ATS (+1.0 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.
VANCOUVER is 7-19 ATS (-16.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
VANCOUVER is 85-101 ATS (+85.0 Units) as a home underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 172-189 ATS (+172.0 Units) in home games against the puck line since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 18-23 ATS (-28.0 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 4-10 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 3-3 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 3-2-1 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons

[crswir]

03/27/06 Predictions

Season: 667-325 (.672)

MIAMI 97, Indiana 90
Phoenix 102, NEW JERSEY 101
UTAH 92, New Orl./Okla. City 87
GOLDEN STATE 105, Washington 102

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Monday, March 27, 2006
MST TV Hoops Index Forecast


5:35p SUN Miami* 7½ over Indiana
5:35p YESNBATV New Jersey* 1½ over Phoenix
7:05p FSN Utah* 4 over New Orleans
8:35p FSNCSN Golden State* 3½ over Washington

[crswir]

03/27/06 Predictions

Season: 394-220 (.642)

Florida vs. BOSTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CAROLINA 4, Tampa Bay 3
Buffalo vs. NY RANGERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Detroit 4, ST. LOUIS 2
VANCOUVER 4, Los Angeles 3



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TODAY'S FORECAST

Monday, March 27, 2006
MST TV Pucks Index Forecast


5:05p NESNFSN Boston* ½ over Florida
5:05p MSG N.Y. Rangers* ½ over Buffalo
5:05p SUN Carolina* 1 over Tampa Bay
6:05p OLN Detroit ½ over St. Louis*
8:35p OLN Vancouver* 1 over Los Angeles

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - College Basketball (Tuesday)

Dunkel Index - NCAA Basketball
NIT

TUESDAY, MARCH 28

Game 615-616: Old Dominion vs. Michigan (in New York, NY)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 64.3; Michigan 67.4
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 3
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Michigan

Game 617-618: South Carolina vs. Louisville (in New York, NY)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 68.5; Louisville 67.7
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 1
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+2)

[pm530]

Dunkel Index - College Basketball (Saturday)

Dunkel Index - NCAA Basketball
Final Four

SATURDAY, APRIL 1

Game 811-812: LSU vs. UCLA (in Indianapolis, IN)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 72.5; UCLA 74.4
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 2
Vegas Line: LSU by 2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+2)

Game 813-814: George Mason vs. Florida (in Indianapolis, IN)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 69.2; Florida 75.4
Dunkel Line: Florida by 6
Vegas Line: Florida by 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-5)