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Friday NCAA games
afternoon session
Ohio State beat Davidson 69-64 in '02 tourney (-12), in 4-13 game first of four straight covers for Southern Conference teams, with losses by 5,3,5,16 points; that was Buckeyes' last appearance in NCAAs, but Ohio State is 11-0 outside of Big 11, and is 7-1 in its last eight games, losing in Big 11 finals. Davidson shoots 36% from arc, is +127 on boards; they lost 84-55 at Duke, 82-58 at Carolina, 90-80 at Syracuse, but beat Missouri, St Joe's; they've won six of last seven games and have six seniors, four of whom start. 15 seeds are 28-18 vs spread over last eleven tourneys.
Arkansas is in NCAAs for first time in five years, while Bucknell beat Kansas last year, ending 0-13 skid for Patriot League teams in this tournament. Since '99, dogs of 4+ points in 8-9 games are 4-1 vs spread. A look at Bucknell's schedule shows 74-69 win at Syracuse, 57-52 win at DePaul, 79-60 home loss to Villanova and losses at Santa Clara (77-68), Duke (84-50), and in double OT at Northern Iowa (65-61). Arkansas had won six in row before loss to Florida (74-71) in SEC tourney; they're 11-2 outside of SEC, as they won ten in row after losing to Maryland, UConn in Maui- they beat Kansas out there. Dogs 10-2-1 vs spread in 8-9 games since 2003 tournament.
Iowa is lot bigger than Northwestern State, so Demons will have to be demons on boards (they're 279th on defensive boards for season) but State plays fast, with two platoons of five guys and they figure to have quickness advantage over Iowa squad that was 3-5 on road in Big 11. Teams that won Big 11 tournament but aren't #1 seeds are 2-3 vs spread in first tournament game. Demons won at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, beat Oregon State on neutral court and lost by only four at Hawai'i, so State has played with some big boys and done well. Hawkeyes might be fat and happy after winning conference tourney; an upset?
Arizona in Philly is bad news for them; they once begged out of game at St Joe's due to snowstorm in east that wasn't that bad. Since coming to Arizona, Lute Olson is 1-6 in first round games when he is seeded lower than 3rd; Wildcats have distractions galore, with Adams suspended last weekend, Rodgers getting fired, then brought back. Arizona is 3-5 when they score 65 pts or less. Bo Ryan is 4-0 in first round games with Wisconsin, as Ryan is tournament-savvy coach (won four national titles at the D-III level). Badgers also had their issues during year, losing 4 of last five games and also losing at home to North Dakota State in January. Arizona opponents shoot 45.1% from floor, a really bad figure for good team. Badgers hold foes to 41.9% from floor.
Northern Iowa-Georgetown could be very low scoring game, as UNI ranks 322nd in pace, Hoyas 329th. Panthers got at-large bid on strength of non-league wins vs Iowa, LSU and Bucknell, but fact is UNI lost five of last six games and was 6th seed in MVC tournament- this is their first game in 13 days. Georgetown lost five of last nine games, after seven-game win streak including a win over Duke- they haven't allowed more than 63 pts in last six games. UNI is 5th in country in defensive rebounding; they've allowed 47.7 ppg in last three games, but scoring has been real problem for Panthers. Favorites are 10-6 vs spread in 7-10 games the last four tournaments.
#1 seed Memphis is -16 over Oral Roberts team that beat USC in Alaska by 20, lost 73-70 vs Marquette, but then didn't play that well, losing to Missouri State (68-52), UL-Lafayette (95-74), Utah State (65-64), Oklahoma (81-73), Minnesota (67-54), & Montana (67-54). That said, the 16-pt spread is lowest in 1-16 game since '90, when Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in OT (-15) in one of closest-ever calls for #1 seed. ORU shoots 38.7% on 3's, has five seniors in its rotation. Memphis was just 6-11 vs spread in league games (16-1 SU), with six wins by 16+ pts. Tigers play down to level of opposition at times; after missing tournament last year, will be interesting to see how they come out here.
Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in 6-11 games last two years, but the Salukis won last four games, allowing 47.3 ppg, and figure to be tough out for West Virginia team that lost first Big East tourney game and five of last seven games overall. WVa ranks 286th in country in pace, but 12th in efficency, so they work the offense and look for 3's (2nd in country in % of pts scored from behind the arc). Salukis rank 318th in pace, 9th in defensive efficiency, so strength vs strength when WVa has ball. Mountaineers are more experienced team, but Salukis playing better now; this is third first round game pitting Big East vs Missouri Valley teams.
Teams that won play-in game are 3-0-1 vs spread in first round the last four years, with the five play-in winners losing by 42,15, 21,20,28 points. #1 seeds are 7-9 vs spread last four years- these kids know each other, as Monmouth is on Jersey shore and kids have faced each other in high school, AAU play. Both teams are perimeter-based; Monmouth runs some Princeton stuff- looking at their non-league games, Hawks beat Southern Illinois by 12 in Alaska, lost 62-56 to South Carolina, 61-45 to Seton Hall; their -129 ratio on backboards shouldn't hurt as much vs Villanova's 4-guard lineup. Wildcats shoot lot of 3's; they were 5-8 vs pts in last thirteen games as favorite.
Evening session
George Mason's second-best player is out of this game after his suspension for throwing sucker punch; Patriots won CAA this winter, so they're good; Mason coach Larranaga once went to East Lansing and beat Spartans when he was coaching Bowling Green. Mason is 10-2 in last dozen games, losing twice to CAA rival Hofstra. Michigan State has been disappointing this year, going 4-6 in last ten games- their defense isn't as good as past seasons (158th in FG%, 303rd in turnovers forced). Spartans are 6-2 in last eight first round games, splitting last four; they beat Old Dominion of CAA in first round last season 89-81 (-8.5).
Big East teams were 0-3 Thursday, so little pressure on the other five today to make amends. Kent State beat Pitt 78-73 in OT in the regional semis four years ago (+1); Panthers lost to Pacific in first round last year, first loss in first round for Pitt in last four tries. Panthers are 10th in country in defensive efficiency, 17th in offensive rebounding, 3rd on defensive boards, but Kent is second in country on defensive boards so this should be game that is very physical- Pitt is 4-4 in its last eight games, but beat West Virginia, Villanova at MSG last weekend. MAC teams are 3-2 in first round last five years, with only one loss by more than five points.
This is 16th time since '87 that a 10-seed is favored over 7-seed; dog was 8-4-3 vs spread in previous 15 games. NC State lost last four games, losing twice in row to Wake team that finished last in ACC. Cal has best player on court in star F Powe; they won last two first round games, beating NC State by hoop in OT in NCAA first round in '03 (-1), last time they made this tourney. Wolfpack is perimeter-based team that runs Princeton offense; they're undermanned inside against Cal, so they'll need to shoot well to advance; they rank 15th in % of pts scored via 3's, while Cal is 8th in pts scored from foul line. Braun is crafty mentor; I have a selection on this game in the box below.
Albany lost by 8 at UCLA this year, by 14 at Villanova last year (down 33-32 at half); they also lost by 27 at San Diego State this year, by 19 at Florida. Great Danes have a 7-2 center, 6-5 PG, and shoot 38% from arc, but they're overmatched athletically vs this UConn team that is smarting from first round loss to Syracuse at MSG. Huskies are 1-7 vs spread in last eight first round games. 16-seeds are 10-7 vs spread since '02. UConn beat up on Stony Brook of America East 85-52 Dec 28; they covered one of last 5 games overall. This is first time Albany has ever had a winning season at D-I level; this is old hat for UConn team plays down to level of foes, and is looking ahead to either UAB, Kentucky.
Murray State has five seniors in its rotation; they hold foes to 39.7% from floor, ranking 20th in the US in field goal percentage; they lost in OT at Cincinnati, by 4 at home to Southern Illinois, by 11 at Tennessee, but they're also 13-1 in last fourteen games. Carolina is young team that got roughed up by BC in Big East semis last week; they're 4-0 in last four first round games, taking all four by 11+ points. Favorite is 18-12 vs spread in 3-14 games the last 7+ years. Ohio Valley teams lost last sixteen NCAA tilts, with last year's 72-64 loss by Eastern Kentucky making clubs in OVC 2-6 vs spread in last eight tourney games.
Kansas has lived for year with last year's disaster vs Bucknell in this round; Jayhawks are younger, talented and 15-1 in last 16 games after starting season 3-4, then rallying to beat Texas for Big 12 tourney. Bradley is in tourney for first time since '88; its coach, Les was PG instead of coach last time they won a NCAA game, in '86. 4-seed in west region is 0-6 vs spread last six years Strong showing by Wichita Thursday has to give hope to three Valley teams playing Friday, but Kansas is 12-4 vs spread since their hot streak started. I look at Bradley's non-league schedule and try to figure how they got into this tournament.
15 seeds are 16-6 vs spread in last 22 2-15 games, but Ivy teams are 0-7 in last seven tourneys, losing by 14,10,22,12,14,17,20 pts. With Patriot teams now giving scholarships, Ivys have dropped in level of play, and have hard time keeping up vs strong clubs. Longhorns are just 5-3 SU last eight games; they better protect ball vs Quaker squad that is 8th in country in % of turnovers it forced. Penn lost to Colorado (78-60), Duke (72-59), St Joseph's (47-44) nd Fordham (78-63). Texas routinely beats up foes, but in last nine games, they're 2-7 against spread.
UAB upset Kentucky 76-74 in OT in second round of NCAA's two years ago (+10.5); Blazers lead country in turnovers forced, are 20th in turnovers committed. With Kentucky ranked 228th in pace, UAB 58th, question is whether Wildcats will go up and down with hyper UAB team that handed Memphis its only loss in C-USA. Kentucky won last fifteen first round games, but this is first time since '87 they've been lower than 5-seed. Blazers got first round win in each of last two years, scoring 92 ppg. Dogs are 10-2-1 vs spread in 8-9 games since '03. Kentucky is 3-3 in its last six games; this would be good win for them in shaky season
afternoon session
Ohio State beat Davidson 69-64 in '02 tourney (-12), in 4-13 game first of four straight covers for Southern Conference teams, with losses by 5,3,5,16 points; that was Buckeyes' last appearance in NCAAs, but Ohio State is 11-0 outside of Big 11, and is 7-1 in its last eight games, losing in Big 11 finals. Davidson shoots 36% from arc, is +127 on boards; they lost 84-55 at Duke, 82-58 at Carolina, 90-80 at Syracuse, but beat Missouri, St Joe's; they've won six of last seven games and have six seniors, four of whom start. 15 seeds are 28-18 vs spread over last eleven tourneys.
Arkansas is in NCAAs for first time in five years, while Bucknell beat Kansas last year, ending 0-13 skid for Patriot League teams in this tournament. Since '99, dogs of 4+ points in 8-9 games are 4-1 vs spread. A look at Bucknell's schedule shows 74-69 win at Syracuse, 57-52 win at DePaul, 79-60 home loss to Villanova and losses at Santa Clara (77-68), Duke (84-50), and in double OT at Northern Iowa (65-61). Arkansas had won six in row before loss to Florida (74-71) in SEC tourney; they're 11-2 outside of SEC, as they won ten in row after losing to Maryland, UConn in Maui- they beat Kansas out there. Dogs 10-2-1 vs spread in 8-9 games since 2003 tournament.
Iowa is lot bigger than Northwestern State, so Demons will have to be demons on boards (they're 279th on defensive boards for season) but State plays fast, with two platoons of five guys and they figure to have quickness advantage over Iowa squad that was 3-5 on road in Big 11. Teams that won Big 11 tournament but aren't #1 seeds are 2-3 vs spread in first tournament game. Demons won at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, beat Oregon State on neutral court and lost by only four at Hawai'i, so State has played with some big boys and done well. Hawkeyes might be fat and happy after winning conference tourney; an upset?
Arizona in Philly is bad news for them; they once begged out of game at St Joe's due to snowstorm in east that wasn't that bad. Since coming to Arizona, Lute Olson is 1-6 in first round games when he is seeded lower than 3rd; Wildcats have distractions galore, with Adams suspended last weekend, Rodgers getting fired, then brought back. Arizona is 3-5 when they score 65 pts or less. Bo Ryan is 4-0 in first round games with Wisconsin, as Ryan is tournament-savvy coach (won four national titles at the D-III level). Badgers also had their issues during year, losing 4 of last five games and also losing at home to North Dakota State in January. Arizona opponents shoot 45.1% from floor, a really bad figure for good team. Badgers hold foes to 41.9% from floor.
Northern Iowa-Georgetown could be very low scoring game, as UNI ranks 322nd in pace, Hoyas 329th. Panthers got at-large bid on strength of non-league wins vs Iowa, LSU and Bucknell, but fact is UNI lost five of last six games and was 6th seed in MVC tournament- this is their first game in 13 days. Georgetown lost five of last nine games, after seven-game win streak including a win over Duke- they haven't allowed more than 63 pts in last six games. UNI is 5th in country in defensive rebounding; they've allowed 47.7 ppg in last three games, but scoring has been real problem for Panthers. Favorites are 10-6 vs spread in 7-10 games the last four tournaments.
#1 seed Memphis is -16 over Oral Roberts team that beat USC in Alaska by 20, lost 73-70 vs Marquette, but then didn't play that well, losing to Missouri State (68-52), UL-Lafayette (95-74), Utah State (65-64), Oklahoma (81-73), Minnesota (67-54), & Montana (67-54). That said, the 16-pt spread is lowest in 1-16 game since '90, when Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in OT (-15) in one of closest-ever calls for #1 seed. ORU shoots 38.7% on 3's, has five seniors in its rotation. Memphis was just 6-11 vs spread in league games (16-1 SU), with six wins by 16+ pts. Tigers play down to level of opposition at times; after missing tournament last year, will be interesting to see how they come out here.
Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in 6-11 games last two years, but the Salukis won last four games, allowing 47.3 ppg, and figure to be tough out for West Virginia team that lost first Big East tourney game and five of last seven games overall. WVa ranks 286th in country in pace, but 12th in efficency, so they work the offense and look for 3's (2nd in country in % of pts scored from behind the arc). Salukis rank 318th in pace, 9th in defensive efficiency, so strength vs strength when WVa has ball. Mountaineers are more experienced team, but Salukis playing better now; this is third first round game pitting Big East vs Missouri Valley teams.
Teams that won play-in game are 3-0-1 vs spread in first round the last four years, with the five play-in winners losing by 42,15, 21,20,28 points. #1 seeds are 7-9 vs spread last four years- these kids know each other, as Monmouth is on Jersey shore and kids have faced each other in high school, AAU play. Both teams are perimeter-based; Monmouth runs some Princeton stuff- looking at their non-league games, Hawks beat Southern Illinois by 12 in Alaska, lost 62-56 to South Carolina, 61-45 to Seton Hall; their -129 ratio on backboards shouldn't hurt as much vs Villanova's 4-guard lineup. Wildcats shoot lot of 3's; they were 5-8 vs pts in last thirteen games as favorite.
Evening session
George Mason's second-best player is out of this game after his suspension for throwing sucker punch; Patriots won CAA this winter, so they're good; Mason coach Larranaga once went to East Lansing and beat Spartans when he was coaching Bowling Green. Mason is 10-2 in last dozen games, losing twice to CAA rival Hofstra. Michigan State has been disappointing this year, going 4-6 in last ten games- their defense isn't as good as past seasons (158th in FG%, 303rd in turnovers forced). Spartans are 6-2 in last eight first round games, splitting last four; they beat Old Dominion of CAA in first round last season 89-81 (-8.5).
Big East teams were 0-3 Thursday, so little pressure on the other five today to make amends. Kent State beat Pitt 78-73 in OT in the regional semis four years ago (+1); Panthers lost to Pacific in first round last year, first loss in first round for Pitt in last four tries. Panthers are 10th in country in defensive efficiency, 17th in offensive rebounding, 3rd on defensive boards, but Kent is second in country on defensive boards so this should be game that is very physical- Pitt is 4-4 in its last eight games, but beat West Virginia, Villanova at MSG last weekend. MAC teams are 3-2 in first round last five years, with only one loss by more than five points.
This is 16th time since '87 that a 10-seed is favored over 7-seed; dog was 8-4-3 vs spread in previous 15 games. NC State lost last four games, losing twice in row to Wake team that finished last in ACC. Cal has best player on court in star F Powe; they won last two first round games, beating NC State by hoop in OT in NCAA first round in '03 (-1), last time they made this tourney. Wolfpack is perimeter-based team that runs Princeton offense; they're undermanned inside against Cal, so they'll need to shoot well to advance; they rank 15th in % of pts scored via 3's, while Cal is 8th in pts scored from foul line. Braun is crafty mentor; I have a selection on this game in the box below.
Albany lost by 8 at UCLA this year, by 14 at Villanova last year (down 33-32 at half); they also lost by 27 at San Diego State this year, by 19 at Florida. Great Danes have a 7-2 center, 6-5 PG, and shoot 38% from arc, but they're overmatched athletically vs this UConn team that is smarting from first round loss to Syracuse at MSG. Huskies are 1-7 vs spread in last eight first round games. 16-seeds are 10-7 vs spread since '02. UConn beat up on Stony Brook of America East 85-52 Dec 28; they covered one of last 5 games overall. This is first time Albany has ever had a winning season at D-I level; this is old hat for UConn team plays down to level of foes, and is looking ahead to either UAB, Kentucky.
Murray State has five seniors in its rotation; they hold foes to 39.7% from floor, ranking 20th in the US in field goal percentage; they lost in OT at Cincinnati, by 4 at home to Southern Illinois, by 11 at Tennessee, but they're also 13-1 in last fourteen games. Carolina is young team that got roughed up by BC in Big East semis last week; they're 4-0 in last four first round games, taking all four by 11+ points. Favorite is 18-12 vs spread in 3-14 games the last 7+ years. Ohio Valley teams lost last sixteen NCAA tilts, with last year's 72-64 loss by Eastern Kentucky making clubs in OVC 2-6 vs spread in last eight tourney games.
Kansas has lived for year with last year's disaster vs Bucknell in this round; Jayhawks are younger, talented and 15-1 in last 16 games after starting season 3-4, then rallying to beat Texas for Big 12 tourney. Bradley is in tourney for first time since '88; its coach, Les was PG instead of coach last time they won a NCAA game, in '86. 4-seed in west region is 0-6 vs spread last six years Strong showing by Wichita Thursday has to give hope to three Valley teams playing Friday, but Kansas is 12-4 vs spread since their hot streak started. I look at Bradley's non-league schedule and try to figure how they got into this tournament.
15 seeds are 16-6 vs spread in last 22 2-15 games, but Ivy teams are 0-7 in last seven tourneys, losing by 14,10,22,12,14,17,20 pts. With Patriot teams now giving scholarships, Ivys have dropped in level of play, and have hard time keeping up vs strong clubs. Longhorns are just 5-3 SU last eight games; they better protect ball vs Quaker squad that is 8th in country in % of turnovers it forced. Penn lost to Colorado (78-60), Duke (72-59), St Joseph's (47-44) nd Fordham (78-63). Texas routinely beats up foes, but in last nine games, they're 2-7 against spread.
UAB upset Kentucky 76-74 in OT in second round of NCAA's two years ago (+10.5); Blazers lead country in turnovers forced, are 20th in turnovers committed. With Kentucky ranked 228th in pace, UAB 58th, question is whether Wildcats will go up and down with hyper UAB team that handed Memphis its only loss in C-USA. Kentucky won last fifteen first round games, but this is first time since '87 they've been lower than 5-seed. Blazers got first round win in each of last two years, scoring 92 ppg. Dogs are 10-2-1 vs spread in 8-9 games since '03. Kentucky is 3-3 in its last six games; this would be good win for them in shaky season
It's always noon somewhere! 
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