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Thursday's NCAA games
afternoon session
First NCAAs in 18 years for Wichita club that won MVC regular season, is 5-1 in last six games. Seton Hall is 1-9 this year when they score less than 65 points; they lost at St John's, then won at Pitt, they lost at Richmond, won by 18 at NC State, lost by 53 at Duke, 42 at UConn, so very erratic team. Wichita's last six opponents scored 63 or less pts. Pirates shoot 41.2% as team; Wichita is 8th in country in defensive rebounding. Hall has the older players. Interesting: 8th Big East team vs #1 MVC club.
Pacific beat two Big East teams in first round last two yrs; here they get former Big East team that got bad travel draw, playing this early Thursday game after playing Sunday in Greensboro. Tigers are just 6-5 out of Big West, but only one of those losses was by more than seven pts. Both teams have experience; BC is 13-1 outside the ACC, but their non-ACC schedule wasn't good. Eagles have four returning starters with over 420 career starts. #13 seeds are 16-12 vs spread in first round the last seven years.
Oklahoma doesn't have true PG, they won five games by a point in Big 12, the NCAA is sniffing around, and there are rumors of Sampson job hunting elsewhere. Wisconsin-Milwaukeee starts five seniors, four of whom started for Sweet 16 team last year, as they beat Alabama, Boston College. Sooners lost three of four in first round, when they were lower than 4 seed (they're a #6). Panthers won at Wyoming, Montana. Sooners won four games in row by point, then got crushed at Texas, and had bad loss to Nebraska in first round of Big 12 tournament.
Alabama lost last two games, fading late in SEC tourney loss at Kentucky; they did well this year, considering they lost leading scorer Davis for year in first SEC game- they lost last year in the first round, for first time in eight years; they're 4-0 in first round when seeded 7th or lower. Marquette beat South Carolina of the SEC in OT in Alaska, but they also lost first conference tourney game, a red flag. Six of nine Eagles that play are freshman/sophs they are -13 in turnovers, but hold foes to 40.4% from the floor.
South Alabama coach Pelphrey was Kentucky player who once worked for Donovan at Florida. One of USA's best players was at Clemson (Christie), where he played for current Florida ass't coach Shyatt, before transferring to Mobile, so lot of familiarity here in this game. Sun Belt teams are 0-10 in tournament (4-6 vs spread) while Gators are just 3-5 in tourney since losing title game in '00 to Michigan State. Jaguars won last eight games; they play lot like Florida, and have more experienced team in this game; USA foes shoot just 29.6% behind arc. Gators played last game Sunday, so quick turnaround for them.
Winthrop won at Marquette early in year; they're a fashionable pick to upset 2 seed Tennessee, which was 2-4 in last six games and lost in first SEC tourney game. Winthrop played three SEC teams this year, losing 60-57 at Alabama, 64-62 at Auburn, 68-54 at South Carolina; they have balanced scoring, but Big South teams have never won NCAA game, except for a play-in game.
Winthrop shoots lot of 3's, making 36.3%; key is whether they can force turnovers from Volunteer guards who were 15th in the country in fewest percentage of turnovers.
Nevada won last fourteen games; they beat Sacramento State in season opener, 82-74, only Big Sky team they faced; Wolf Pack won first round game in last two first rounds, by 4,6 pts; they're favored here vs Montana team that lost 88-77 to Washington in first round last year (they trailed 43-26 at half).Grizzlies won Big Sky title game at Northern Arizona, always good sign for team to be good enough to win on road. Montana beat Stanford at home 88-69 this year, only Pac-10 team they faced. Griz shoot it from arc at 38.5%. This could be an interesting game.
Atlantic Sun teams are 4-0-1 vs spread in NCAAs last five years and Belmont shoots 50% from floor for season, so they deserve respect; they lost by 10 at Ohio State, by 22 at Oklahoma- they shoot 38% from arc, have only two seniors in their rotation of 10 guys. UCLA is #2 seed for first time in nine years; they've won seven games in a row, covering all seven. San Diego site favors UCLA. Odd stat: #15 seed in West region is 9-0 vs spread in the first round the last nine years, winning one of the nine games.
Thursday night games
NC-Wilmington won last eight games, 13 of last 14; they play at slower (248th) pace than GW (9th), rank 8th in effective FG%, so they don't allow easy hoops, which is George Washington's big thing. Seahawks are the highest seeded CAA team since they started seedings; CAA teams are 5-0 vs spread in first round last five years; they lost by hoop to Maryland two years ago (+9) year after they beat USC in first round (+10.5). GW is 26-2, but lost in its first A-14 tourney game, was lucky to win game before that; they miss injured C Mensah-Bonsu.
Iona is free-wheeling team (40% from behind the arc) that starts three senior guards but is erratic; they scored 86.7 ppg in winning MAAC tourney, after losing last two regular season games. Gaels 0-3 in this event since '98, losing by 2,15,2 pts; MAAC teams are 1-9 in last ten first round games (Manhattan beat Florida in '04). LSU hasn't won NCAA game since '00, losing last two first round games in as similar favorites in '03, '05. This is only second time in last 20 years LSU seeded this high. Status of star freshman Thomas unclear; he has missed last few weeks.
Gonzaga is 6-1 in first round last seven years, winning last three by 5,27,10 pts. Xavier also won last three first round games, but they're here because A-14 tournament was at home; they were seeded 10th out of 14; their best player has broken ankle, they fired their PG, and they were 2-4 in last six games away from home. Gonzaga is feeling slighted with #3 seed, but the defense is spotty, and they were fortunate to escape WCC tourney, also at home. Zags might be better off playing more athletic teams that will run with them, but Xavier holds foes to 39.2% from floor, so Zags will need Raivio to hit some shots to take heat off star F Morrison.
Illinois faces Northwestern, another Princeton-style team, twice a year; this year, they beat Wildcats 58-47/63-47, so they should be OK as far as that. Air Force has no seniors in top seven players; their best guy missed this year with injury, but they beat Miami, Georgia Tech, St Mary's, lost 85-74 at Washington, then finished second in Mountain West- they still have yet to win conference tourney game, much less NCAA game- they lost by 11 to North Carolina two years ago in this round. Illinois was in Final Four last year; they won last eight first round games
(6-2 vs spread), but lost in first game of Big 11 tourney, always a red flag. Illini are 14-0 outside Big 11.
Southern is last SWAC team to win non-play-in NCAA game, beating Georgia Tech as 13 seed back in '93 (93-78); SWAC teams covered seven of last 10 non-PI tourney games. Jaguars are 1-9 outside SWAC, losing 89-56 at Texas, 84-56 at LSU, 88-44 at Texas A&M, 68-54 at Oklahoma, 73-56 at Xavier; they have 76 more turnovers than their opponents. 16 seeds are 9-7 vs spread last four years. Duke played on Sunday, but on same floor as this game (Greensboro), so short turnaround but very little travel; they're 5-8 vs spread in last thirteen first round games (4-4 as #1 seed). Southern just second SWAC team in last five years not in play-in game.
Syracuse went from scrap heap to 5 seed on strength of brillant weekend by McNamara at MSG last week; this is team that lost at home to Bucknell, was 9 seed in Big East, and didn't leave New York during December, except for game vs Towson State in Scranton, which happens to be McNamara's hometown. Texas A&M is 8-1 in last nine games, losing only 74-70 vs Texas; they won four of last five games away from home. Aggies hold foes to 41% from floor, force 18 turnovers a game; they won in OT at Iowa State in January- Cyclones play same summer league 2-3 zone as Syracuse, albeit with lesser players. Orange lost in first round last year to Vermont; they're 4-2 in last six first round games. The last five years, 12 seeds are 8-12 SU in this round, not bad; this is least points a 12 seed has gotten in five years. Aggies have 3rd best defensive efficiency in country.
Utah State is fashionable pick to upset Washington, but Aggies didn't win regular season or tournament in WAC; why are they here? Their RPI was lower than four teams that stayed home. Aggies have nine newcomers, but they shoot 3's well and start three seniors; they lost four of last five first round games, beating Ohio State as 12 seed five years ago (+3). Washington won first round game last two years, scoring 92 ppg; they're 11-0 outside of Pac-10, and had won eight games in row (7-1 vs spread) before second half collapse vs Oregon (led 41-30 at half) knocked them out in first round of Pac-10 tourney. Huskies start four seniors, are 4th in country on offensive boards, while USU is 168th on defensive boards. 12 seeds are 17-11 vs spread the last seven years.
Indiana-San Diego State is weirdest first round game. Davis is lame duck; his best shooter tore up his ankle at end of Ohio State game Saturday and didn't practice on Monday, plus game is at altitude, where Killingworth's conditioning will be an issue, especially vs Aztec squad that won conference tournament in altitude of Denver last week; they play Utes on this floor every year. That said, Mountain West tourney champ is 0-6 SU in this event, scoring 57 ppg; all MWC teams are 3-8 SU in last 11 tourney games. Aztecs didn't shoot 40% in any single game last weekend; they survived OT in final vs 7-seed Wyoming with star player Slaughter fouled out, and star G Heath shooting 7-27 from floor. Vaden's health is a key to this game.
Thursday NIT games
Hofstra was upset they didn't make NCAAs; now they get shot at Big 12 team, on their home court. Nebraska is 10-3 outside the Big 12- they weren't bad on road in Big 12 (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 as road dog). Hofstra is 11-2 in last 13 games; they were 5-2-1 as a home favorite in CAA games. Good chance for Hofstra to improve its profile, vs team from one of the power conferences.
Quick turnaround for Rutgers club that is 6-3 in last nine games and won at Penn State Tuesday, shooting 53% from floor, 12-28 from the arc. Douby's scoring is carrying this team. St Joe's lost tough game at Xavier in A-14 finals that ended Hawks' 8-game win streak. Hawks lost 71-58 to Villanova in only game against a Big East team this yr. Rutgers beat Temple by 14, only team in A-14 they faced this season.
UTEP hammered Lipscomb 85-66 Tuesday, shooting 58% from floor, hitting 14-24 treys, now they move way up in class, face a Michigan team that didn't always play hard during season- what they do here is anyone's guess. Wolverines have edge with bye but they lost seven of last nine games, were 2-4 as home fave in league games. UTEP misses leading scorer Tofi; they're 1-3 on road since he got hurt, losing by 10,11,3 points.
Akron is just 4-4 last eight games; they rallied from down 34-26 at half to win in OT at Temple Tuesday; trip to Creighton is a bit taxing, especially facing rested Bluejay team that hasn't played in 13 days. Creighton lost four of last six games, is 4-4 as a MVC home favorite. Zips were 6-0 in MAC at one point, faded to 15-5 Interesting to see how Creighton, Missouri State react to being left out of tourney, while four other Valley teams got in.
Friday NCAA games
afternoon session
Ohio State beat Davidson 69-64 in '02 tourney (-12), in 4-13 game first of four straight covers for Southern Conference teams, with losses by 5,3,5,16 points; that was Buckeyes' last appearance in NCAAs, but Ohio State is 11-0 outside of Big 11, and is 7-1 in its last eight games, losing in Big 11 finals. Davidson shoots 36% from arc, is +127 on boards; they lost 84-55 at Duke, 82-58 at Carolina, 90-80 at Syracuse, but beat Missouri, St Joe's; they've won six of last seven games and have six seniors, four of whom start. 15 seeds are 27-17 vs spread over last eleven tourneys.
Arkansas is in NCAAs for first time in five years, while Bucknell beat Kansas last year, ending 0-13 skid for Patriot League teams in this tournament. Since '99, dogs of 4+ points in 8-9 games are 4-1 vs spread. A look at Bucknell's schedule shows 74-69 win at Syracuse, 57-52 win at DePaul, 79-60 home loss to Villanova and losses at Santa Clara (77-68), Duke (84-50), and in double OT at Northern Iowa (65-61). Arkansas had won six in row before loss to Florida (74-71) in SEC tourney; they're 11-2 outside of SEC, as they won ten in row after losing to Maryland, UConn in Maui- they beat Kansas out there.
Iowa is lot bigger than Northwestern State, so Demons will have to be demons on boards (they're 279th on defensive boards for season) but State plays fast, with two platoons of five guys and they figure to have quickness advantage over Iowa squad that was 3-5 on road in Big 11. Teams that won Big 11 tournament but aren't #1 seeds are 2-3 vs spread in first tournament game. Demons won at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, beat Oregon State on neutral court and lost by only four at Hawai'i, so State has played with some big boys and done well. Hawkeyes might be fat and happy after winning conference tourney; an upset?
Arizona in Philly is bad news for them; they once begged out of game at St Joe's due to snowstorm in east that wasn't that bad. Since coming to Arizona, Lute Olson is 1-6 in first round games when he is seeded lower than 3rd; Wildcats have distractions galore, with Adams suspended last weekend, Rodgers getting fired, then brought back. Arizona is 3-5 when they score 65 pts or less. Bo Ryan is 4-0 in first round games with Wisconsin, as Ryan is tournament-savvy coach (won four national titles at the D-III level). Badgers also had their issues during year, losing 4 of last five games and also losing at home to North Dakota State in January. Arizona opponents shoot 45.1% from floor, a really bad figure for good team. Badgers hold foes to 41.9% from floor.
Northern Iowa-Georgetown could be very low scoring game, as UNI ranks 322nd in pace, Hoyas 329th. Panthers got at-large bid on strength of non-league wins vs Iowa, LSU and Bucknell, but fact is UNI lost five of last six games and was 6th seed in MVC tournament- this is their first game in 13 days. Georgetown lost five of last nine games, after seven-game win streak including a win over Duke- they haven't allowed more than 63 pts in last six games. UNI is 5th in country in defensive rebounding; they've allowed 47.7 ppg in last three games, but scoring has been real problem for Panthers. Favorites are 10-6 vs spread in 7-10 games the last four tournaments.
#1 seed Memphis is -16 over Oral Roberts team that beat USC in Alaska by 20, lost 73-70 vs Marquette, but then didn't play that well, losing to Missouri State (68-52), UL-Lafayette (95-74), Utah State (65-64), Oklahoma (81-73), Minnesota (67-54), & Montana (67-54). That said, the 16-pt spread is lowest in 1-16 game since '90, when Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in OT (-15) in one of closest-ever calls for #1 seed. ORU shoots 38.7% on 3's, has five seniors in its rotation. Memphis was just 6-11 vs spread in league games (16-1 SU), with six wins by 16+ pts. Tigers play down to level of opposition at times; after missing tournament last year, will be interesting to see how they come out here.
Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in 6-11 games last two years, but the Salukis won last four games, allowing 47.3 ppg, and figure to be tough out for West Virginia team that lost first Big East tourney game and five of last seven games overall. WVa ranks 286th in country in pace, but 12th in efficency, so they work the offense and look for 3's (2nd in country in % of pts scored from behind the arc). Salukis rank 318th in pace, 9th in defensive efficiency, so strength vs strength when WVa has ball. Mountaineers are more experienced team, but Salukis playing better now; this is third first round game pitting Big East vs Missouri Valley teams.
Teams that won play-in game are 3-0-1 vs spread in first round the last four years, with the five play-in winners losing by 42,15, 21,20,28 points. #1 seeds are 7-9 vs spread last four years- these kids know each other, as Monmouth is on Jersey shore and kids have faced each other in high school, AAU play. Both teams are perimeter-based; Monmouth runs some Princeton stuff- looking at their non-league games, Hawks beat Southern Illinois by 12 in Alaska, lost 62-56 to South Carolina, 61-45 to Seton Hall; their -129 ratio on backboards shouldn't hurt as much vs Villanova's 4-guard lineup. Wildcats shoot lot of 3's; they were 5-8 vs pts in last thirteen games as favorite.
afternoon session
First NCAAs in 18 years for Wichita club that won MVC regular season, is 5-1 in last six games. Seton Hall is 1-9 this year when they score less than 65 points; they lost at St John's, then won at Pitt, they lost at Richmond, won by 18 at NC State, lost by 53 at Duke, 42 at UConn, so very erratic team. Wichita's last six opponents scored 63 or less pts. Pirates shoot 41.2% as team; Wichita is 8th in country in defensive rebounding. Hall has the older players. Interesting: 8th Big East team vs #1 MVC club.
Pacific beat two Big East teams in first round last two yrs; here they get former Big East team that got bad travel draw, playing this early Thursday game after playing Sunday in Greensboro. Tigers are just 6-5 out of Big West, but only one of those losses was by more than seven pts. Both teams have experience; BC is 13-1 outside the ACC, but their non-ACC schedule wasn't good. Eagles have four returning starters with over 420 career starts. #13 seeds are 16-12 vs spread in first round the last seven years.
Oklahoma doesn't have true PG, they won five games by a point in Big 12, the NCAA is sniffing around, and there are rumors of Sampson job hunting elsewhere. Wisconsin-Milwaukeee starts five seniors, four of whom started for Sweet 16 team last year, as they beat Alabama, Boston College. Sooners lost three of four in first round, when they were lower than 4 seed (they're a #6). Panthers won at Wyoming, Montana. Sooners won four games in row by point, then got crushed at Texas, and had bad loss to Nebraska in first round of Big 12 tournament.
Alabama lost last two games, fading late in SEC tourney loss at Kentucky; they did well this year, considering they lost leading scorer Davis for year in first SEC game- they lost last year in the first round, for first time in eight years; they're 4-0 in first round when seeded 7th or lower. Marquette beat South Carolina of the SEC in OT in Alaska, but they also lost first conference tourney game, a red flag. Six of nine Eagles that play are freshman/sophs they are -13 in turnovers, but hold foes to 40.4% from the floor.
South Alabama coach Pelphrey was Kentucky player who once worked for Donovan at Florida. One of USA's best players was at Clemson (Christie), where he played for current Florida ass't coach Shyatt, before transferring to Mobile, so lot of familiarity here in this game. Sun Belt teams are 0-10 in tournament (4-6 vs spread) while Gators are just 3-5 in tourney since losing title game in '00 to Michigan State. Jaguars won last eight games; they play lot like Florida, and have more experienced team in this game; USA foes shoot just 29.6% behind arc. Gators played last game Sunday, so quick turnaround for them.
Winthrop won at Marquette early in year; they're a fashionable pick to upset 2 seed Tennessee, which was 2-4 in last six games and lost in first SEC tourney game. Winthrop played three SEC teams this year, losing 60-57 at Alabama, 64-62 at Auburn, 68-54 at South Carolina; they have balanced scoring, but Big South teams have never won NCAA game, except for a play-in game.
Winthrop shoots lot of 3's, making 36.3%; key is whether they can force turnovers from Volunteer guards who were 15th in the country in fewest percentage of turnovers.
Nevada won last fourteen games; they beat Sacramento State in season opener, 82-74, only Big Sky team they faced; Wolf Pack won first round game in last two first rounds, by 4,6 pts; they're favored here vs Montana team that lost 88-77 to Washington in first round last year (they trailed 43-26 at half).Grizzlies won Big Sky title game at Northern Arizona, always good sign for team to be good enough to win on road. Montana beat Stanford at home 88-69 this year, only Pac-10 team they faced. Griz shoot it from arc at 38.5%. This could be an interesting game.
Atlantic Sun teams are 4-0-1 vs spread in NCAAs last five years and Belmont shoots 50% from floor for season, so they deserve respect; they lost by 10 at Ohio State, by 22 at Oklahoma- they shoot 38% from arc, have only two seniors in their rotation of 10 guys. UCLA is #2 seed for first time in nine years; they've won seven games in a row, covering all seven. San Diego site favors UCLA. Odd stat: #15 seed in West region is 9-0 vs spread in the first round the last nine years, winning one of the nine games.
Thursday night games
NC-Wilmington won last eight games, 13 of last 14; they play at slower (248th) pace than GW (9th), rank 8th in effective FG%, so they don't allow easy hoops, which is George Washington's big thing. Seahawks are the highest seeded CAA team since they started seedings; CAA teams are 5-0 vs spread in first round last five years; they lost by hoop to Maryland two years ago (+9) year after they beat USC in first round (+10.5). GW is 26-2, but lost in its first A-14 tourney game, was lucky to win game before that; they miss injured C Mensah-Bonsu.
Iona is free-wheeling team (40% from behind the arc) that starts three senior guards but is erratic; they scored 86.7 ppg in winning MAAC tourney, after losing last two regular season games. Gaels 0-3 in this event since '98, losing by 2,15,2 pts; MAAC teams are 1-9 in last ten first round games (Manhattan beat Florida in '04). LSU hasn't won NCAA game since '00, losing last two first round games in as similar favorites in '03, '05. This is only second time in last 20 years LSU seeded this high. Status of star freshman Thomas unclear; he has missed last few weeks.
Gonzaga is 6-1 in first round last seven years, winning last three by 5,27,10 pts. Xavier also won last three first round games, but they're here because A-14 tournament was at home; they were seeded 10th out of 14; their best player has broken ankle, they fired their PG, and they were 2-4 in last six games away from home. Gonzaga is feeling slighted with #3 seed, but the defense is spotty, and they were fortunate to escape WCC tourney, also at home. Zags might be better off playing more athletic teams that will run with them, but Xavier holds foes to 39.2% from floor, so Zags will need Raivio to hit some shots to take heat off star F Morrison.
Illinois faces Northwestern, another Princeton-style team, twice a year; this year, they beat Wildcats 58-47/63-47, so they should be OK as far as that. Air Force has no seniors in top seven players; their best guy missed this year with injury, but they beat Miami, Georgia Tech, St Mary's, lost 85-74 at Washington, then finished second in Mountain West- they still have yet to win conference tourney game, much less NCAA game- they lost by 11 to North Carolina two years ago in this round. Illinois was in Final Four last year; they won last eight first round games
(6-2 vs spread), but lost in first game of Big 11 tourney, always a red flag. Illini are 14-0 outside Big 11.
Southern is last SWAC team to win non-play-in NCAA game, beating Georgia Tech as 13 seed back in '93 (93-78); SWAC teams covered seven of last 10 non-PI tourney games. Jaguars are 1-9 outside SWAC, losing 89-56 at Texas, 84-56 at LSU, 88-44 at Texas A&M, 68-54 at Oklahoma, 73-56 at Xavier; they have 76 more turnovers than their opponents. 16 seeds are 9-7 vs spread last four years. Duke played on Sunday, but on same floor as this game (Greensboro), so short turnaround but very little travel; they're 5-8 vs spread in last thirteen first round games (4-4 as #1 seed). Southern just second SWAC team in last five years not in play-in game.
Syracuse went from scrap heap to 5 seed on strength of brillant weekend by McNamara at MSG last week; this is team that lost at home to Bucknell, was 9 seed in Big East, and didn't leave New York during December, except for game vs Towson State in Scranton, which happens to be McNamara's hometown. Texas A&M is 8-1 in last nine games, losing only 74-70 vs Texas; they won four of last five games away from home. Aggies hold foes to 41% from floor, force 18 turnovers a game; they won in OT at Iowa State in January- Cyclones play same summer league 2-3 zone as Syracuse, albeit with lesser players. Orange lost in first round last year to Vermont; they're 4-2 in last six first round games. The last five years, 12 seeds are 8-12 SU in this round, not bad; this is least points a 12 seed has gotten in five years. Aggies have 3rd best defensive efficiency in country.
Utah State is fashionable pick to upset Washington, but Aggies didn't win regular season or tournament in WAC; why are they here? Their RPI was lower than four teams that stayed home. Aggies have nine newcomers, but they shoot 3's well and start three seniors; they lost four of last five first round games, beating Ohio State as 12 seed five years ago (+3). Washington won first round game last two years, scoring 92 ppg; they're 11-0 outside of Pac-10, and had won eight games in row (7-1 vs spread) before second half collapse vs Oregon (led 41-30 at half) knocked them out in first round of Pac-10 tourney. Huskies start four seniors, are 4th in country on offensive boards, while USU is 168th on defensive boards. 12 seeds are 17-11 vs spread the last seven years.
Indiana-San Diego State is weirdest first round game. Davis is lame duck; his best shooter tore up his ankle at end of Ohio State game Saturday and didn't practice on Monday, plus game is at altitude, where Killingworth's conditioning will be an issue, especially vs Aztec squad that won conference tournament in altitude of Denver last week; they play Utes on this floor every year. That said, Mountain West tourney champ is 0-6 SU in this event, scoring 57 ppg; all MWC teams are 3-8 SU in last 11 tourney games. Aztecs didn't shoot 40% in any single game last weekend; they survived OT in final vs 7-seed Wyoming with star player Slaughter fouled out, and star G Heath shooting 7-27 from floor. Vaden's health is a key to this game.
Thursday NIT games
Hofstra was upset they didn't make NCAAs; now they get shot at Big 12 team, on their home court. Nebraska is 10-3 outside the Big 12- they weren't bad on road in Big 12 (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 as road dog). Hofstra is 11-2 in last 13 games; they were 5-2-1 as a home favorite in CAA games. Good chance for Hofstra to improve its profile, vs team from one of the power conferences.
Quick turnaround for Rutgers club that is 6-3 in last nine games and won at Penn State Tuesday, shooting 53% from floor, 12-28 from the arc. Douby's scoring is carrying this team. St Joe's lost tough game at Xavier in A-14 finals that ended Hawks' 8-game win streak. Hawks lost 71-58 to Villanova in only game against a Big East team this yr. Rutgers beat Temple by 14, only team in A-14 they faced this season.
UTEP hammered Lipscomb 85-66 Tuesday, shooting 58% from floor, hitting 14-24 treys, now they move way up in class, face a Michigan team that didn't always play hard during season- what they do here is anyone's guess. Wolverines have edge with bye but they lost seven of last nine games, were 2-4 as home fave in league games. UTEP misses leading scorer Tofi; they're 1-3 on road since he got hurt, losing by 10,11,3 points.
Akron is just 4-4 last eight games; they rallied from down 34-26 at half to win in OT at Temple Tuesday; trip to Creighton is a bit taxing, especially facing rested Bluejay team that hasn't played in 13 days. Creighton lost four of last six games, is 4-4 as a MVC home favorite. Zips were 6-0 in MAC at one point, faded to 15-5 Interesting to see how Creighton, Missouri State react to being left out of tourney, while four other Valley teams got in.
Friday NCAA games
afternoon session
Ohio State beat Davidson 69-64 in '02 tourney (-12), in 4-13 game first of four straight covers for Southern Conference teams, with losses by 5,3,5,16 points; that was Buckeyes' last appearance in NCAAs, but Ohio State is 11-0 outside of Big 11, and is 7-1 in its last eight games, losing in Big 11 finals. Davidson shoots 36% from arc, is +127 on boards; they lost 84-55 at Duke, 82-58 at Carolina, 90-80 at Syracuse, but beat Missouri, St Joe's; they've won six of last seven games and have six seniors, four of whom start. 15 seeds are 27-17 vs spread over last eleven tourneys.
Arkansas is in NCAAs for first time in five years, while Bucknell beat Kansas last year, ending 0-13 skid for Patriot League teams in this tournament. Since '99, dogs of 4+ points in 8-9 games are 4-1 vs spread. A look at Bucknell's schedule shows 74-69 win at Syracuse, 57-52 win at DePaul, 79-60 home loss to Villanova and losses at Santa Clara (77-68), Duke (84-50), and in double OT at Northern Iowa (65-61). Arkansas had won six in row before loss to Florida (74-71) in SEC tourney; they're 11-2 outside of SEC, as they won ten in row after losing to Maryland, UConn in Maui- they beat Kansas out there.
Iowa is lot bigger than Northwestern State, so Demons will have to be demons on boards (they're 279th on defensive boards for season) but State plays fast, with two platoons of five guys and they figure to have quickness advantage over Iowa squad that was 3-5 on road in Big 11. Teams that won Big 11 tournament but aren't #1 seeds are 2-3 vs spread in first tournament game. Demons won at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, beat Oregon State on neutral court and lost by only four at Hawai'i, so State has played with some big boys and done well. Hawkeyes might be fat and happy after winning conference tourney; an upset?
Arizona in Philly is bad news for them; they once begged out of game at St Joe's due to snowstorm in east that wasn't that bad. Since coming to Arizona, Lute Olson is 1-6 in first round games when he is seeded lower than 3rd; Wildcats have distractions galore, with Adams suspended last weekend, Rodgers getting fired, then brought back. Arizona is 3-5 when they score 65 pts or less. Bo Ryan is 4-0 in first round games with Wisconsin, as Ryan is tournament-savvy coach (won four national titles at the D-III level). Badgers also had their issues during year, losing 4 of last five games and also losing at home to North Dakota State in January. Arizona opponents shoot 45.1% from floor, a really bad figure for good team. Badgers hold foes to 41.9% from floor.
Northern Iowa-Georgetown could be very low scoring game, as UNI ranks 322nd in pace, Hoyas 329th. Panthers got at-large bid on strength of non-league wins vs Iowa, LSU and Bucknell, but fact is UNI lost five of last six games and was 6th seed in MVC tournament- this is their first game in 13 days. Georgetown lost five of last nine games, after seven-game win streak including a win over Duke- they haven't allowed more than 63 pts in last six games. UNI is 5th in country in defensive rebounding; they've allowed 47.7 ppg in last three games, but scoring has been real problem for Panthers. Favorites are 10-6 vs spread in 7-10 games the last four tournaments.
#1 seed Memphis is -16 over Oral Roberts team that beat USC in Alaska by 20, lost 73-70 vs Marquette, but then didn't play that well, losing to Missouri State (68-52), UL-Lafayette (95-74), Utah State (65-64), Oklahoma (81-73), Minnesota (67-54), & Montana (67-54). That said, the 16-pt spread is lowest in 1-16 game since '90, when Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in OT (-15) in one of closest-ever calls for #1 seed. ORU shoots 38.7% on 3's, has five seniors in its rotation. Memphis was just 6-11 vs spread in league games (16-1 SU), with six wins by 16+ pts. Tigers play down to level of opposition at times; after missing tournament last year, will be interesting to see how they come out here.
Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in 6-11 games last two years, but the Salukis won last four games, allowing 47.3 ppg, and figure to be tough out for West Virginia team that lost first Big East tourney game and five of last seven games overall. WVa ranks 286th in country in pace, but 12th in efficency, so they work the offense and look for 3's (2nd in country in % of pts scored from behind the arc). Salukis rank 318th in pace, 9th in defensive efficiency, so strength vs strength when WVa has ball. Mountaineers are more experienced team, but Salukis playing better now; this is third first round game pitting Big East vs Missouri Valley teams.
Teams that won play-in game are 3-0-1 vs spread in first round the last four years, with the five play-in winners losing by 42,15, 21,20,28 points. #1 seeds are 7-9 vs spread last four years- these kids know each other, as Monmouth is on Jersey shore and kids have faced each other in high school, AAU play. Both teams are perimeter-based; Monmouth runs some Princeton stuff- looking at their non-league games, Hawks beat Southern Illinois by 12 in Alaska, lost 62-56 to South Carolina, 61-45 to Seton Hall; their -129 ratio on backboards shouldn't hurt as much vs Villanova's 4-guard lineup. Wildcats shoot lot of 3's; they were 5-8 vs pts in last thirteen games as favorite.
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