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Wednesday's NIT games
In my mind, there is nothing more mystifying in handicapping than the first round of the NIT. No one wants to play in the NIT; not players, not coaches, they all want to be in the Field of 65, but if they win their first game, they'll get into it, glad to still be playing. But for this round, proceed with extreme caution........ crowds are small, so home court is minimized, but travel isn't at all first class, so that hurts the road teams. Here is some info on the games that are being played, for what it is worth.......
Colorado has eight seniors who play; they were so erratic this year, but they won last seven home games, after losing Big 12 home opener to Kansas. Buffs hammered NC-Wilmington 73-54 back in November; UNCW won Old Dominion's league; Buffs are 10-1 outside of Big 12. Monarchs are 0-3-1 as road underdog
Vanderbilt was 11-2 at one point this season, after 57-52 win at Rupp Arena Jan 10, but that was it; they lost six of seven right after that. Commodores did win at Georgetown of Big East, 68-61 in November. Notre Dame was 2-5 as Big East home favorite and lost ton of close games during year; they beat Alabama of SEC.
Oklahoma State lost five of last six road games (3-3 as road dog) they beat Tennessee by 16, lost at Gonzaga by hoop and lost by point to Kansas in Big 12 tourney, so they're still plugging away Miami was awful in non-conference, going 0-5 vs non-cupcakes they lost seven of last nine games. 'canes were 3-4 as home fave
Louisiana Tech's Millsaps will be best player on court tonight at Clemson; since March 1, Tech has won at Hawai'i, split pair out in Reno, and now is in South Carolina. Bulldogs were 5-2 vs the spread on WAC road; they won their Bracketbuster game 54-51 at Suthern Illinois. Clemson had won four of five before losing to Miami in ACC tourney; they were 4-2 as favorite in ACC.
BYU had to be bitterly disappointed losing to rival Utah in first round of MWC tourney; their lack of quickness will hurt vs this Houston team that gets up and down and has no conscience in shot selection. Cougars won last five home games; they lost by 10 at UNLV of Mountain West. BYU is 6-1 in last seven games, and 8-3 in non-conference games.
Western Kentucky, South Carolina are too good to be playing in first round here; Hilltoppers were erratic this year, winning by 16 at UAB, beating Virginia by 10, then losing by 27 at Troy and losing 95-70 in Sun Belt title game. Gamecocks played four in a row at SEC tourney; they might be little tired still; oddly, they're 0-3 in last three games on home court.
Wake Forest was 1-11 in ACC at one point; they went 4-3 after that, but bad year for Deacons, with senior stars Gray, Williams. Wake beat Wisconsin 91-88 back in November- Badgers swept Minnesota pair of games. Deacons covered one of last six as a road dog in ACC. Gophers lost four of their last five games.
Thursday's NCAA games
afternoon session
First NCAAs in 18 years for Wichita club that won MVC regular season, is 5-1 in last six games. Seton Hall is 1-9 this year when they score less than 65 points; they lost at St John's, then won at Pitt, they lost at Richmond, won by 18 at NC State, lost by 53 at Duke, 42 at UConn, so very erratic team. Wichita's last six opponents scored 63 or less pts. Pirates shoot 41.2% as team; Wichita is 8th in country in defensive rebounding. Hall has the older players. Interesting: 8th Big East team vs #1 MVC club.
Pacific beat two Big East teams in first round last two yrs; here they get former Big East team that got bad travel draw, playing this early Thursday game after playing Sunday in Greensboro. Tigers are just 6-5 out of Big West, but only one of those losses was by more than seven pts. Bot teams have experience; BC is 13-1 outside the ACC, but their non-ACC schedule wasn't good. Eagles have four returning starters with over 420 career starts. #13 seeds are 16-12 vs spread in first round the last seven years.
Oklahoma doesn't have true PG, they won five games by a point in Big 12, the NCAA is sniffing around, and there are rumors of Sampson job hunting elsewhere. Wisconsin-Milwaukeee starts five seniors, four of whom started for Sweet 16 team last year, as they beat Alabama, Boston College. Sooners lost three of four in first round, when they were lower than 4 seed (they're a #6). Panthers won at Wyoming, Montana. Sooners won four games in row by point, then got crushed at Texas, and had bad loss to Nebraska in first round of Big 12 tournament.
Alabama lost last two games, fading late in SEC tourney loss at Kentucky; they did well this year, considering they lost leading scorer Davis for year in first SEC game- they lost last year in the first round, for first time in eight years; they're 4-0 in first round when seeded 7th or lower. Marquette beat South Carolina of the SEC in OT in Alaska, but they also lost first conference tourney game, a red flag. Six of nine Eagles that play are freshman/sophs they are -13 in turnovers, but hold foes to 40.4% from the floor.
South Alabama coach Pelphrey was Kentucky player who once worked for Donovan at Florida. One of USA's best players was at Clemson (Christie), where he played for current Florida ass't coach Shyatt, before transferring to Mobile, so lot of familiarity here in this game. Sun Belt teams are 0-10 in tournament (4-6 vs spread) while Gators are just 3-5 in tourney since losing title game in '00 to Michigan State. Jaguars won last eight games; they play lot like Florida, and have more experienced team in this game; USA foes shoot just 20.6% behind arc. Gators played last game Sunday, so quick turnaround for them.
Winthrop won at Marquette early in year; they're a fashionable pick to upset 2 seed Tennessee, which was 2-4 in last six games and lost in first SEC tourney game. Winthrop played three SEC teams this year, losing 60-57 at Alabama, 64-62 at Auburn, 68-54 at South Carolina; they have balanced scoring, but Big South teams have never won NCAA game, except for a play-in game.
Winthrop shoots lot of 3's, making 36.3%; key is whether they can force turnovers from Volunteer guards who were 15th in the country in fewest percentage of turnovers.
Nevada won last fourteen games; they beat Sacramento State in season opener, 82-74, only Big Sky team they faced; Wolf Pack won first round game in last two first rounds, by 4,6 pts; they're favored here vs Montana team that lost 88-77 to Washington in first round last year (they trailed 43-26 at half).Grizzlies won Big Sky title game at Northern Arizona, always good sign for team to be good enough to win on road. Montana beat Stanford at home 88-69 this year, only Pac-10 team they faced. Griz shoot it from arc at 38.5%. This could be an interesting game.
Atlantic Sun teams are 4-0-1 vs spread in NCAAs last five years and Belmont shoots 50% from floor for season, so they deserve respect; they lost by 10 at Ohio State, by 22 at Oklahoma- they shoot 38% from arc, have only two seniors in their rotation of 10 guys. UCLA is #2 seed for first time in nine years; they've won seven games in a row, covering all seven. San Diego site favors UCLA. Odd stat: #15 seed in West region is 9-0 vs spread in the first round the last nine years, winning one of the nine games.
In my mind, there is nothing more mystifying in handicapping than the first round of the NIT. No one wants to play in the NIT; not players, not coaches, they all want to be in the Field of 65, but if they win their first game, they'll get into it, glad to still be playing. But for this round, proceed with extreme caution........ crowds are small, so home court is minimized, but travel isn't at all first class, so that hurts the road teams. Here is some info on the games that are being played, for what it is worth.......
Colorado has eight seniors who play; they were so erratic this year, but they won last seven home games, after losing Big 12 home opener to Kansas. Buffs hammered NC-Wilmington 73-54 back in November; UNCW won Old Dominion's league; Buffs are 10-1 outside of Big 12. Monarchs are 0-3-1 as road underdog
Vanderbilt was 11-2 at one point this season, after 57-52 win at Rupp Arena Jan 10, but that was it; they lost six of seven right after that. Commodores did win at Georgetown of Big East, 68-61 in November. Notre Dame was 2-5 as Big East home favorite and lost ton of close games during year; they beat Alabama of SEC.
Oklahoma State lost five of last six road games (3-3 as road dog) they beat Tennessee by 16, lost at Gonzaga by hoop and lost by point to Kansas in Big 12 tourney, so they're still plugging away Miami was awful in non-conference, going 0-5 vs non-cupcakes they lost seven of last nine games. 'canes were 3-4 as home fave
Louisiana Tech's Millsaps will be best player on court tonight at Clemson; since March 1, Tech has won at Hawai'i, split pair out in Reno, and now is in South Carolina. Bulldogs were 5-2 vs the spread on WAC road; they won their Bracketbuster game 54-51 at Suthern Illinois. Clemson had won four of five before losing to Miami in ACC tourney; they were 4-2 as favorite in ACC.
BYU had to be bitterly disappointed losing to rival Utah in first round of MWC tourney; their lack of quickness will hurt vs this Houston team that gets up and down and has no conscience in shot selection. Cougars won last five home games; they lost by 10 at UNLV of Mountain West. BYU is 6-1 in last seven games, and 8-3 in non-conference games.
Western Kentucky, South Carolina are too good to be playing in first round here; Hilltoppers were erratic this year, winning by 16 at UAB, beating Virginia by 10, then losing by 27 at Troy and losing 95-70 in Sun Belt title game. Gamecocks played four in a row at SEC tourney; they might be little tired still; oddly, they're 0-3 in last three games on home court.
Wake Forest was 1-11 in ACC at one point; they went 4-3 after that, but bad year for Deacons, with senior stars Gray, Williams. Wake beat Wisconsin 91-88 back in November- Badgers swept Minnesota pair of games. Deacons covered one of last six as a road dog in ACC. Gophers lost four of their last five games.
Thursday's NCAA games
afternoon session
First NCAAs in 18 years for Wichita club that won MVC regular season, is 5-1 in last six games. Seton Hall is 1-9 this year when they score less than 65 points; they lost at St John's, then won at Pitt, they lost at Richmond, won by 18 at NC State, lost by 53 at Duke, 42 at UConn, so very erratic team. Wichita's last six opponents scored 63 or less pts. Pirates shoot 41.2% as team; Wichita is 8th in country in defensive rebounding. Hall has the older players. Interesting: 8th Big East team vs #1 MVC club.
Pacific beat two Big East teams in first round last two yrs; here they get former Big East team that got bad travel draw, playing this early Thursday game after playing Sunday in Greensboro. Tigers are just 6-5 out of Big West, but only one of those losses was by more than seven pts. Bot teams have experience; BC is 13-1 outside the ACC, but their non-ACC schedule wasn't good. Eagles have four returning starters with over 420 career starts. #13 seeds are 16-12 vs spread in first round the last seven years.
Oklahoma doesn't have true PG, they won five games by a point in Big 12, the NCAA is sniffing around, and there are rumors of Sampson job hunting elsewhere. Wisconsin-Milwaukeee starts five seniors, four of whom started for Sweet 16 team last year, as they beat Alabama, Boston College. Sooners lost three of four in first round, when they were lower than 4 seed (they're a #6). Panthers won at Wyoming, Montana. Sooners won four games in row by point, then got crushed at Texas, and had bad loss to Nebraska in first round of Big 12 tournament.
Alabama lost last two games, fading late in SEC tourney loss at Kentucky; they did well this year, considering they lost leading scorer Davis for year in first SEC game- they lost last year in the first round, for first time in eight years; they're 4-0 in first round when seeded 7th or lower. Marquette beat South Carolina of the SEC in OT in Alaska, but they also lost first conference tourney game, a red flag. Six of nine Eagles that play are freshman/sophs they are -13 in turnovers, but hold foes to 40.4% from the floor.
South Alabama coach Pelphrey was Kentucky player who once worked for Donovan at Florida. One of USA's best players was at Clemson (Christie), where he played for current Florida ass't coach Shyatt, before transferring to Mobile, so lot of familiarity here in this game. Sun Belt teams are 0-10 in tournament (4-6 vs spread) while Gators are just 3-5 in tourney since losing title game in '00 to Michigan State. Jaguars won last eight games; they play lot like Florida, and have more experienced team in this game; USA foes shoot just 20.6% behind arc. Gators played last game Sunday, so quick turnaround for them.
Winthrop won at Marquette early in year; they're a fashionable pick to upset 2 seed Tennessee, which was 2-4 in last six games and lost in first SEC tourney game. Winthrop played three SEC teams this year, losing 60-57 at Alabama, 64-62 at Auburn, 68-54 at South Carolina; they have balanced scoring, but Big South teams have never won NCAA game, except for a play-in game.
Winthrop shoots lot of 3's, making 36.3%; key is whether they can force turnovers from Volunteer guards who were 15th in the country in fewest percentage of turnovers.
Nevada won last fourteen games; they beat Sacramento State in season opener, 82-74, only Big Sky team they faced; Wolf Pack won first round game in last two first rounds, by 4,6 pts; they're favored here vs Montana team that lost 88-77 to Washington in first round last year (they trailed 43-26 at half).Grizzlies won Big Sky title game at Northern Arizona, always good sign for team to be good enough to win on road. Montana beat Stanford at home 88-69 this year, only Pac-10 team they faced. Griz shoot it from arc at 38.5%. This could be an interesting game.
Atlantic Sun teams are 4-0-1 vs spread in NCAAs last five years and Belmont shoots 50% from floor for season, so they deserve respect; they lost by 10 at Ohio State, by 22 at Oklahoma- they shoot 38% from arc, have only two seniors in their rotation of 10 guys. UCLA is #2 seed for first time in nine years; they've won seven games in a row, covering all seven. San Diego site favors UCLA. Odd stat: #15 seed in West region is 9-0 vs spread in the first round the last nine years, winning one of the nine games.
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