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NCAA TOURNAMENT ROUND 1 SITUATION
SITUATION
In Round 1 of the NCAA's, we look to play on any underdog to a favorite of *17 if they come off a SU and ATS loss and they are playing a foe who is not off a SU and ATS loss. That situation in itself is 110-72 ATS, over 60%.
EXCLUSIONS
If you're laying more than 17 points in this matchup, it's just 15-16 ATS.
If our team has a won/loss percentage of less than .678, it's 28-24 ATS.
If the foe, the team we're playing, is greater than .750, it's 23-21 ATS.
TIGHTENER
Out of our 110-72 base:
If our play on team was not favored by more than 3 points in the previous game, they are 71-32 ATS.
If the team we're playing against is either an off-board team or they were favored by more than 1 in their previous game, our play on record zoomed to 74-37 ATS (67%).
If either of those occurred, the record was 103-55 ATS.
If both occurred, the record was 42-14 ATS (75%).
FIRST ROUND
Looking at the last six years of first round action, the favorite/underdog trends are all hovering around 50%, as the favorite holds an overall mark of 47.8%. The higher seeds own a 51% ATS mark, with similar performances numbers both on Thursday and Friday of the opening round. However, the most significant trends seem to surround the seeded matchups. For instance, the #5 vs #12 matchup has long been regarded as the potential upset, but in truth, the #10 seeds have been the best underdog, holding a significant edge over the #7?s in their head to head games, winning 15 of 28, both SU & ATS. Regarding totals, note the interesting OVER/UNDER trends in the matchups beween the #5 & #12, as well as the #7 vs #10. Here?s a look at the stats for all of the matchups.
Seed Matchup Results
#1 vs. #16: The #1 seed is 28-0 SU & 17-11 ATS. 14 of 24 totaled games went UNDER.
#2 vs. #15: #2 seeds are 27-1 SU but just 12-16 ATS. 16 of 24 totaled games went UNDER.
#3 vs. #14: This matchup has been owned by the #3 seed, 26-2 SU & 16-12 ATS. OVER/UNDER is 9/15.
#4 vs. #13: The #4 seed is 12-6 SU & 14-13-1 ATS vs the #13. The OVER/UNDER ratio is 14/10.
#5 vs. #12: 5th seeds are 17-11 SU &11-16 ATS vs the #12?s. The OVER is 15-9 in the series.
#6 vs. #11: #6 seeds have fared well straight up, going 20-8 & 15-13 ATS. 14 of the 24 games went UNDER the posted total.
#7 vs. #10: As mentioned earlier, the #10 seed is 15-13 SU & ATS in this matchup. The UNDER is 14-8-2.
#8 vs. #9: This has been a close series, with #8 holding sway, 15-13 SU & 14-14 ATS. O/U ratio is 13/11.
NCAA First Round Notes:
#1 Seeds off BB SU wins are 19-10 ATS.
#3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 19-1 SU & 14-6-1 ATS.
# 4 Seed favourite of 9.5 or less points are 16-8 ATS.
#7 Seed dogs are 11-4-1 ATS.
# 13 Seeds with a win percentage of .600 or better are 13-18 ATS.
- ACC champs are 7-18 ATS and also 5-14 ATS as favorites -9 or more points.
- Favorites in this round are 207-198-6 ATS, including 1-5 ATS when playing off a SU home loss as a favourite.
- The best team SU records in this round are Kentucky 19-0, Kansas 15-0, Connecticut 12-0, Stanford 10-0, Duke 8-0, Purdue 8-0, Illinois 7-0 and Maryland 7-0.
- The worst team SU record in this round is Nebraska 0-5, BYU 0-4 .
- The best team ATS record in this round is Southern Illinois 4-0, Stanford 4-0 and Illinois 6-1.
- Worst Team ATS records in this round: Mississippi 0-5, Nebraska 0-5, Georgia Tech 0-4, Maryland 0-4 ATS and Massachusetts 0-4.
- Best Conference SU records in this round: ACC 12-1 SU last three years, BIG 10 11-2 last three years and PAC 10 14-5 last four years.
- The worst conference SU record in this round: Colonial Athletic Association at 2-10 in the last twelve years.
ROUND 2 NCAA TOURNAMENT ACTION
In Round 2 of NCAA Tournament action
Better seeded teams overall are 118-96 ATS
If our team is favoured by more than 11 in this game, the record is just 16-22 ATS
Play on any better seeded dog to *10- in the Round of 32, 98-65 ATS (60%)
TIGHTENERS
vs. foe off a SU dog win, 47-22 ATS
vs. foe off back to back SU dog wins, 24-3
team off ATS loss (any line), 25-7 ATS (19-0 ATS -6 to -15)
team off a win of 25 or more points, 24-6 ATS
team off a win of 25 or more points vs. foe off back to back wins, 10-0 ATS
team off a win of 25 or more points and not a #1 seed, 18-2 ATS
team off a win of 14 or more points ATS, 19-1 ATS
team off a win of 25 or more points and 14 or more points ATS, 14-0 ATS
We look to play on that better seeded dog to *10-, 96-64 ATS. While if the line was greater than 10-, the situation is just 16-22.
Remember, dogs of 11+ are 22-16 ATS, including
14-3 ATS if team is seeded 8 or better
NCAA Second Round Notes:
- # 8 Seeds are 14-4 ATS since 1996.
- # 13 or worse Seeds are 3-20 straight up and 6-15-1 ATS since 1991, including 2-8 ATS vs. # 1 Seeds.
- Teams playing in their same state are 50-25 ATS from the second round out.
- Overtime winners are 11-23-1 ATS during the second and Sweet 16 rounds.
- The best team SU records in this round are Maryland 3-0, Arizona 8-1, Connecticut 6-1, Louisville 4-1 and Syracuse 4-1.
- The worst team SU records in this round are Xavier 0-5, Alabama 0-4, Wake Forest 0-3, Cincinnati 1-5 and Stanford 1-4.
- The best team ATS records in this round are Maryland 3-0, Connecticut 6-1 and Louisville 4-1.
SECOND ROUND
A number of significant patterns have formed over the past six years in the second round of the tournament. Most notably are the performances of the underdog and lower seeds, and the results against the total. In fact, judging by the trend regarding the last day of the tournament?s opening weekend, we may rename it ?Upset Sunday?. See if any of these trends can help you in your second round wagering.
General Trends
- The rate of straight up wins by the lower seeds is 4% better in the second round than overall. (36%-32%)
- Two thirds of the lower seed wins come on Sunday of the second round. In fact, the lower seeds own a straight up record of 27-29 on Sunday, nearly 50%. They are also 32-24 ATS, 57%.
- The second round, in general, has been a higher scoring round. 52 of 97 totaled games have gone OVER the total. In fact, the highest scoring tournament game of the last five years was a second round game, that being UCLA?s 105-101 upset of Cincinnati in 2002.
Line placement:
- Favorites of more than 6 points are just 26-29 ATS.
- Favorites of 4-6 points are 11-11 ATS.
- Favorites of less than 4 points are just 11-21 ATS.
Seeding Patterns
- The #1, #2, & #3 seeds have a combined record of 36-44 ATS (45%) in the second round.
- The #2 seed?s performance is particularly troubling when facing the #10 seed: 5-9 SU & 4-10 ATS.
- The #2 seed did perform well against a #7 seed though, 9-4 SU & ATS.
- The #10 & #8 seeds own the best ATS record in this round, going 11-4 ATS & 11-5 ATS, respectively.
SITUATION
In Round 1 of the NCAA's, we look to play on any underdog to a favorite of *17 if they come off a SU and ATS loss and they are playing a foe who is not off a SU and ATS loss. That situation in itself is 110-72 ATS, over 60%.
EXCLUSIONS
If you're laying more than 17 points in this matchup, it's just 15-16 ATS.
If our team has a won/loss percentage of less than .678, it's 28-24 ATS.
If the foe, the team we're playing, is greater than .750, it's 23-21 ATS.
TIGHTENER
Out of our 110-72 base:
If our play on team was not favored by more than 3 points in the previous game, they are 71-32 ATS.
If the team we're playing against is either an off-board team or they were favored by more than 1 in their previous game, our play on record zoomed to 74-37 ATS (67%).
If either of those occurred, the record was 103-55 ATS.
If both occurred, the record was 42-14 ATS (75%).
FIRST ROUND
Looking at the last six years of first round action, the favorite/underdog trends are all hovering around 50%, as the favorite holds an overall mark of 47.8%. The higher seeds own a 51% ATS mark, with similar performances numbers both on Thursday and Friday of the opening round. However, the most significant trends seem to surround the seeded matchups. For instance, the #5 vs #12 matchup has long been regarded as the potential upset, but in truth, the #10 seeds have been the best underdog, holding a significant edge over the #7?s in their head to head games, winning 15 of 28, both SU & ATS. Regarding totals, note the interesting OVER/UNDER trends in the matchups beween the #5 & #12, as well as the #7 vs #10. Here?s a look at the stats for all of the matchups.
Seed Matchup Results
#1 vs. #16: The #1 seed is 28-0 SU & 17-11 ATS. 14 of 24 totaled games went UNDER.
#2 vs. #15: #2 seeds are 27-1 SU but just 12-16 ATS. 16 of 24 totaled games went UNDER.
#3 vs. #14: This matchup has been owned by the #3 seed, 26-2 SU & 16-12 ATS. OVER/UNDER is 9/15.
#4 vs. #13: The #4 seed is 12-6 SU & 14-13-1 ATS vs the #13. The OVER/UNDER ratio is 14/10.
#5 vs. #12: 5th seeds are 17-11 SU &11-16 ATS vs the #12?s. The OVER is 15-9 in the series.
#6 vs. #11: #6 seeds have fared well straight up, going 20-8 & 15-13 ATS. 14 of the 24 games went UNDER the posted total.
#7 vs. #10: As mentioned earlier, the #10 seed is 15-13 SU & ATS in this matchup. The UNDER is 14-8-2.
#8 vs. #9: This has been a close series, with #8 holding sway, 15-13 SU & 14-14 ATS. O/U ratio is 13/11.
NCAA First Round Notes:
#1 Seeds off BB SU wins are 19-10 ATS.
#3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 19-1 SU & 14-6-1 ATS.
# 4 Seed favourite of 9.5 or less points are 16-8 ATS.
#7 Seed dogs are 11-4-1 ATS.
# 13 Seeds with a win percentage of .600 or better are 13-18 ATS.
- ACC champs are 7-18 ATS and also 5-14 ATS as favorites -9 or more points.
- Favorites in this round are 207-198-6 ATS, including 1-5 ATS when playing off a SU home loss as a favourite.
- The best team SU records in this round are Kentucky 19-0, Kansas 15-0, Connecticut 12-0, Stanford 10-0, Duke 8-0, Purdue 8-0, Illinois 7-0 and Maryland 7-0.
- The worst team SU record in this round is Nebraska 0-5, BYU 0-4 .
- The best team ATS record in this round is Southern Illinois 4-0, Stanford 4-0 and Illinois 6-1.
- Worst Team ATS records in this round: Mississippi 0-5, Nebraska 0-5, Georgia Tech 0-4, Maryland 0-4 ATS and Massachusetts 0-4.
- Best Conference SU records in this round: ACC 12-1 SU last three years, BIG 10 11-2 last three years and PAC 10 14-5 last four years.
- The worst conference SU record in this round: Colonial Athletic Association at 2-10 in the last twelve years.
ROUND 2 NCAA TOURNAMENT ACTION
In Round 2 of NCAA Tournament action
Better seeded teams overall are 118-96 ATS
If our team is favoured by more than 11 in this game, the record is just 16-22 ATS
Play on any better seeded dog to *10- in the Round of 32, 98-65 ATS (60%)
TIGHTENERS
vs. foe off a SU dog win, 47-22 ATS
vs. foe off back to back SU dog wins, 24-3
team off ATS loss (any line), 25-7 ATS (19-0 ATS -6 to -15)
team off a win of 25 or more points, 24-6 ATS
team off a win of 25 or more points vs. foe off back to back wins, 10-0 ATS
team off a win of 25 or more points and not a #1 seed, 18-2 ATS
team off a win of 14 or more points ATS, 19-1 ATS
team off a win of 25 or more points and 14 or more points ATS, 14-0 ATS
We look to play on that better seeded dog to *10-, 96-64 ATS. While if the line was greater than 10-, the situation is just 16-22.
Remember, dogs of 11+ are 22-16 ATS, including
14-3 ATS if team is seeded 8 or better
NCAA Second Round Notes:
- # 8 Seeds are 14-4 ATS since 1996.
- # 13 or worse Seeds are 3-20 straight up and 6-15-1 ATS since 1991, including 2-8 ATS vs. # 1 Seeds.
- Teams playing in their same state are 50-25 ATS from the second round out.
- Overtime winners are 11-23-1 ATS during the second and Sweet 16 rounds.
- The best team SU records in this round are Maryland 3-0, Arizona 8-1, Connecticut 6-1, Louisville 4-1 and Syracuse 4-1.
- The worst team SU records in this round are Xavier 0-5, Alabama 0-4, Wake Forest 0-3, Cincinnati 1-5 and Stanford 1-4.
- The best team ATS records in this round are Maryland 3-0, Connecticut 6-1 and Louisville 4-1.
SECOND ROUND
A number of significant patterns have formed over the past six years in the second round of the tournament. Most notably are the performances of the underdog and lower seeds, and the results against the total. In fact, judging by the trend regarding the last day of the tournament?s opening weekend, we may rename it ?Upset Sunday?. See if any of these trends can help you in your second round wagering.
General Trends
- The rate of straight up wins by the lower seeds is 4% better in the second round than overall. (36%-32%)
- Two thirds of the lower seed wins come on Sunday of the second round. In fact, the lower seeds own a straight up record of 27-29 on Sunday, nearly 50%. They are also 32-24 ATS, 57%.
- The second round, in general, has been a higher scoring round. 52 of 97 totaled games have gone OVER the total. In fact, the highest scoring tournament game of the last five years was a second round game, that being UCLA?s 105-101 upset of Cincinnati in 2002.
Line placement:
- Favorites of more than 6 points are just 26-29 ATS.
- Favorites of 4-6 points are 11-11 ATS.
- Favorites of less than 4 points are just 11-21 ATS.
Seeding Patterns
- The #1, #2, & #3 seeds have a combined record of 36-44 ATS (45%) in the second round.
- The #2 seed?s performance is particularly troubling when facing the #10 seed: 5-9 SU & 4-10 ATS.
- The #2 seed did perform well against a #7 seed though, 9-4 SU & ATS.
- The #10 & #8 seeds own the best ATS record in this round, going 11-4 ATS & 11-5 ATS, respectively.
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