Tweet
I always start this thread with a paragraph stating that my lifetime record in betting movie awards is over 90%.......The small few that have followed in the past will attest to this.....This is what i do best
If interested, just read the comment after each award
As usual, you are going to have to have a decent amount of money in your account to make money, but if you do, and yoursite takes these bets, you WILL win if you bet intelligently......
The Big 6 awards:
Best Movie------->Most sites have Brokeback Mountain at about -500 or so, while Crash can be found at about +330. This is a very unique scenario as everybody on the planet thought crash was a better movie, and the past 2 times this has been the case, the better movie won because of the buzz in the week prior to the awards (Million Dollar Baby over Aviator and Shakespeare in love over Saving Private Ryan). The difference in this vs. the 2 former is that the 'later released movie' won and this time, Brokeback is the later released movie.........As a pick, I will reluctantly still pick Brokeback narrowly over Crash but clearly not worth a bet at anything greater than -200.
Best Actor------>Phillip Seymour Hoffman is a mortal lock and anything under -2000 is a good bet. I have seen it at -600 and -800 at various sites and that is a good bet. He cant lose. 2 months ago , it was a 3 way tossup between he, Joaquin Phoenix, and Heath Ledger, but then everyone saw Capote and that ended it. This was as good a performance as Jaime Foxx last year, and this will be 'Capote's' only award.
Best Actress----->Not quite the lock the actor award is but probably a better bet. Reese Witherspoon should be about -800 to -1000 but I have seen it at less than -500 at some sites. She is going to win, but here I wiould stay away from the term mortal lock because Felicity Huffman's portrayal of a transexual was tougher to play and she is well -loved as a character on TV power Desperate Housewives. However, Huffmans presence in this category really just serves to lower Reese's odds and if Reese loses, it will be a shock unlike this award has seen in over 20 years.
Best Director----->Ang Lee should be 1/100000, but is -1000 to -1500 at most places. He cant lose, end of story.
Best Supporting Actor---->Clooney should win but giamatti has a very good chance and even matt dillon has a very slight chance. The odds for clooney are around +150 while giamatti is a slight favorite at around -120. I give the slight edge to clooney because although his character in syriana doesnt deserve it, the academy likes him and he did so many things this year, i think they reward him here. Giamatti is favored because even though cinderalla man was not a mvoie the academy liked, he could get it for slighting him last year when he wasnt nominated for sideways. dillon probably did the best job and is in fan favorite crash but the race has been clooney vs. giamatti for so long, it is hard for me to see him winning. Crash gets rewarded elsewhere.
Best Supporting Actress------>if you want to take a shot at an upset , why not here. Rachel weisz is a -250 favorite for her role in the constant gardener but everyone who saw junebug said adams was 100 times better, and she can be bet at around +400. Dont discount michelle williams either at 5/1. I say adams upsets the favorite, weisz; but the real question is, how many people saw junebug?? if they all saw it, she wins, if not, she loses to one of the other 2, maybe she is worth a shot. historically, this award is where the upset is.
Other Categories that can only be found on a couple sites, and if BC allows, I will post it here:
Mortal locks:
Original scrennplay:Crash
Adapted screenplay:brokeback mountain
animated movie: gromit
Film Editing: crash
cinematography:brokeback mountain
Makeup:chronicles of narnia
Visual FX:king kong
costume design:memoirs of a geisha
Good bets:
art direction:memoirs of a geisha
documentary:march of the penguins
sound mixing:king kong
sound editing:king kong
50-50:
foreign film:tsotsi over paradise now
score:memoirs over brokeback
i think that is everything.........if nothing else, write these down and watch it with someone and they will be shocked that you get 90% of them right........
good luck
b
any questions?
If interested, just read the comment after each award
As usual, you are going to have to have a decent amount of money in your account to make money, but if you do, and yoursite takes these bets, you WILL win if you bet intelligently......
The Big 6 awards:
Best Movie------->Most sites have Brokeback Mountain at about -500 or so, while Crash can be found at about +330. This is a very unique scenario as everybody on the planet thought crash was a better movie, and the past 2 times this has been the case, the better movie won because of the buzz in the week prior to the awards (Million Dollar Baby over Aviator and Shakespeare in love over Saving Private Ryan). The difference in this vs. the 2 former is that the 'later released movie' won and this time, Brokeback is the later released movie.........As a pick, I will reluctantly still pick Brokeback narrowly over Crash but clearly not worth a bet at anything greater than -200.
Best Actor------>Phillip Seymour Hoffman is a mortal lock and anything under -2000 is a good bet. I have seen it at -600 and -800 at various sites and that is a good bet. He cant lose. 2 months ago , it was a 3 way tossup between he, Joaquin Phoenix, and Heath Ledger, but then everyone saw Capote and that ended it. This was as good a performance as Jaime Foxx last year, and this will be 'Capote's' only award.
Best Actress----->Not quite the lock the actor award is but probably a better bet. Reese Witherspoon should be about -800 to -1000 but I have seen it at less than -500 at some sites. She is going to win, but here I wiould stay away from the term mortal lock because Felicity Huffman's portrayal of a transexual was tougher to play and she is well -loved as a character on TV power Desperate Housewives. However, Huffmans presence in this category really just serves to lower Reese's odds and if Reese loses, it will be a shock unlike this award has seen in over 20 years.
Best Director----->Ang Lee should be 1/100000, but is -1000 to -1500 at most places. He cant lose, end of story.
Best Supporting Actor---->Clooney should win but giamatti has a very good chance and even matt dillon has a very slight chance. The odds for clooney are around +150 while giamatti is a slight favorite at around -120. I give the slight edge to clooney because although his character in syriana doesnt deserve it, the academy likes him and he did so many things this year, i think they reward him here. Giamatti is favored because even though cinderalla man was not a mvoie the academy liked, he could get it for slighting him last year when he wasnt nominated for sideways. dillon probably did the best job and is in fan favorite crash but the race has been clooney vs. giamatti for so long, it is hard for me to see him winning. Crash gets rewarded elsewhere.
Best Supporting Actress------>if you want to take a shot at an upset , why not here. Rachel weisz is a -250 favorite for her role in the constant gardener but everyone who saw junebug said adams was 100 times better, and she can be bet at around +400. Dont discount michelle williams either at 5/1. I say adams upsets the favorite, weisz; but the real question is, how many people saw junebug?? if they all saw it, she wins, if not, she loses to one of the other 2, maybe she is worth a shot. historically, this award is where the upset is.
Other Categories that can only be found on a couple sites, and if BC allows, I will post it here:
Mortal locks:
Original scrennplay:Crash
Adapted screenplay:brokeback mountain
animated movie: gromit
Film Editing: crash
cinematography:brokeback mountain
Makeup:chronicles of narnia
Visual FX:king kong
costume design:memoirs of a geisha
Good bets:
art direction:memoirs of a geisha
documentary:march of the penguins
sound mixing:king kong
sound editing:king kong
50-50:
foreign film:tsotsi over paradise now
score:memoirs over brokeback
i think that is everything.........if nothing else, write these down and watch it with someone and they will be shocked that you get 90% of them right........
good luck
b
any questions?
Comment