Super Sunday Trends

[Spark]

Sunday's List of 13: Did you know that?
13) Duke played two tough games this week; an 83-81 win at Boston College, and a 97-96 OT win at home vs Florida State. In those two games combined, BC/Florida State were 20-24 at the foul line...............Duke was 60-80!!!!!! Coaching, my ass; they get calls when they need them.

12) Notre Dame has had the weirdest season; they are 1-8 in Big East, and haven't lost a game by more than six points.

11) UNLV has point guard with a cool point guard-type name: Wink Adams. If I were coaching, I'd want my PG to be named Wink. He's pretty good, too.

10) Crowd for Miami, O at Buffalo game Saturday: 5,038. Good job by Reggie Witherspoon building a program at UB, when there was nothing before he got there.

9) Lookalikes: Wichita State PG Matt Braeuer, major league outfielder Eric Byrnes. They could be twins, other than one being a few years older.

8) At this time of year, teams are either getting better, or they are regressing. Teams on rise would include BYU, Colorado, Georgetown, Kansas, Georgia.

7) Teams getting worse, or just wearing out because they are young: Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Indiana.

6) Gonzaga is a nice team, but league they play in stinks, and by way of support, I tell you that Loyola Marymount sits at 6-2 in WCC, second place. They were 3-11 in pre-conference.

How does this hurt Gonzaga? They're not getting tested like other big-time schools are, so if they run into athletic team in first round of NCAA's that hits some shots (Iona?), it could spell another quick exit for the Zags.

5) Wonder what Mike Davis' status at Indiana is; since losing DJ White, Hoosiers haven't won a road game, and then lost at home to UConn (no disgrace). Expectations were high, but it appears that IU is headed towards the bubble. Stay tuned.

4) Yesterday, Furman was 6-6 from foul line, NC-Greensboro 12-12; in all my years of studying boxscores, can't remember seeing a game where there were no missed foul shots.

3) Denver shot 18.9% from floor in their loss at UL-Lafayette last night. Pioneers are 5-5 in Sun Belt; 5-0 at home, 0-5 road.

2) Georgia Southern has hammered Chattanooga by 20+ pts in each of last two years; in those two games, Eagles shot a combined 36-61 (59%) from behind the arc.

1) Duke plays North Carolina this week. No truth to a rumor that Tyler Hansbrough already has two fouls on him.

[garister]

Thanks for all the work on the trends.

I noticed something, there has never been 2 unders back-back in the SB and last year went Under.

I know:

[spaarkie]

-- Seattle plays its games on artificial turf, Steelers grass. This is the first-ever Super Bowl on FieldTurf.
-- Holmgren has won Super Bowl, Cowher hasn't.
-- Seattle has only two players in this game who played on Super Bowl champ (Wistrom, Jurevicius).
-- Seattle doesn't use the shotgun, while most teams the Steelers play did; shotgun formation gives defensive ends a target to rush, while a dropback passer makes it little more vague for the rushing DE.
-- Seattle is #1 seed, Steelers #6. I know the AFC is a better conference, but a #6 is favored by 4.5 points over a #1 seed? I don't think so.
-- Hasselbeck is the more experienced QB. Maaybe not the better QB, but he has been through more.
-- Seattle hasn't lost a game that counted since Week 4. Steelers were 7-5, at one point.
-- The line is inflated because Steelers are public team, a team with national following. Seahawks, along with Jags, are most obscure teams in whole NFL.
-- Jim Fassel, offensive coordinator of Baltimore, was a backup QB at USC with Holmgren; his Ravens play the Steelers twice a year, and they've done alright- they were 16-38 on 3rd down vs Steelers this yr, with awful QB's. These guys share ideas, and you can bet Fassel has been in contact with Holmgren, sharing information.
-- Mike Holmgren didn't get doused with Gatorade after the NFC title game; this shows a maturity that Seahawks still had one more game to win, and this is the game.

SPARK i noted alot of whait u just said and now u added a few more insites for me...way to go bud

gonna call in a little more now!!!!!


hope the best for everyone$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Spearit]

Thanx for the trends guys
General Performance Trends
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 27-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 19-17-3, 52.8%.
* Double-digit favorites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.
* The SU winner is 31-5-3 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls, but as noted earlier, two of the losses have occurred in the most current back to back seasons.
* The NFC holds a 21-18 SU and 20-16-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in the last three Super Bowls.
* The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowl games!
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-9 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

Halftime Trends
* The team that wins the game SU owns a 28-11 ATS first half mark.
* The team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-6-3 ATS mark in the first half.
* The first half favorite is 20-19 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls.
* Over 53% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games, including 38 PPG in the second half of the last three Super Bowls.

Over/Under Trends
* As noted earlier, there have been 46.05 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl.
* In nine domed Super Bowl games, the total points scored per game is 48.6.
* Overall,14 of 20 Super Bowl games have gone OVER the total.
* Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total.
* Three of the six games with totals posted 50 or higher went UNDER the total.

6-Point Teaser Trends
* The underdog owns a 23-15-1 ATS Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls.
* The favorite is 28-11 ATS in Teaser plays.

Proposition Wager Analysis
There are hundreds of proposition wagers available to a bettor on Super Bowl Sunday, ranging from statistical matchups to winning point margin to the coin toss. The odds can be very enticing for many of these, but keep in mind that the odds are long for a reason. Still, it’s fun to try and predict these features, and they add a whole new flavor to watching the big game. Here are some thoughts on a few of my personal favorite proposition options:
First player to score a TD: A well known favorite to proposition bettors. The last 10 players to earn this title include L.J. Smith, Branch, Alstott, Law (a defensive TD), Stokley, Holt (a rookie at the time), Griffith, Freeman, Rison, and Novacek. You won’t find many of these names among the league’s all time touchdown leaders, so make sure the reward is worth it. Often, some key contributors can have odds of 8-1 or more.
Team to score first and win/lose: In 27 of the 39 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won the game. This would mandate at least 2.25-1 odds if you were to choose the opposite.
Coin toss: The odds say take “Heads”, or was it “Tails”? Either way, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. Despite the lack of control or predictability, this wager remains among the most popular.
Predicted Margin of Victory: After reading this article, you should by now be able to easily predict which team is going to win the game, right? Well, add some spice to it by picking a victory margin from a range of attractive choices. The payoffs are decent, and it doesn’t seem to be that difficult of a number to predict.

[Spearit]

1. The last five Super Bowl champions were ranked in the top 5 in Red Zone defense.

2004 Patriots (3rd)
2003 Patriots (4th)
2002 Bucs (1st)
2001 Patriots (3rd)
2000 Ravens (2nd)

The Red Zone defensive rankings of the Seahawks is 2nd & Pitt 10th.

2. There are only 4 teams that played in the Super Bowl and allowed 6 or less rushing TD’s over the course of the regular season. The previous 3 teams all won outright.

1985 Bears (6) – Won S/U & ATS
1999 Rams (4) – Won S/U & Push ATS
2000 Ravens (5) – Won S/U & ATS
2005 Seahawks (5)

3. In the long history of the Super Bowl, there have been exactly ten AFC teams that have won their championship game while scoring 33 or more points. What happened to seven of them, they all lost the game straight up with none covering the spread.

Bet AGAINST the AFC rep in the Super Bowl if they scored 33 or more in the championship game:

3-7 S/U & 1-8-1 ATS (NFC dogs are 3-1 S/U & 3-0-1 ATS with the lone S/U loss last year with NE 24-21).


4. This SB game will be the ninth time, since 1980, that BOTH of the Super Bowl participants enter the game having won their Conference Championship game by 14 or more points.

The previous eight Super Bowl games that fit into this category have seen the NFC team win seven S/U (8-0 ATS) and do so in dominating fashion.

The combined score of those seven NFC victories was NFC 272-115, for an average winning score of 39-16.

The games that fit the above situation are:

'04 NE over Philly 24-21
02 TB 41-28 over Oakland
'96 GB 35-21 over NE
'93 DALLAS 30-13 over Buffalo
'89 SF 55-10 over Denver
'85 CHICAGO 46-10 over NE
'84 SF 38-16 over Miami
'82 WASH 27-17 over Miami

Play ON the NFC Super Bowl rep if both teams come into the game having won their respective Conference Title games by 14 or more points:

(7-1 S/U & 8-0 ATS).

5. Play ON the NFC rep whenever the posted total is 40 to 48. The NFC record in these games is 8-1 S/U & 9-0 ATS since the '87 Super Bowl. The nine games are:

'87 NYG 39-21 (40)
'88 WASH 42-10 (47)
'89 SAN FRAN 20-16 (48)
'90 SAN FRAN 55-10 (48)
'91 NYG 20-19 (40.5)
'93 DALLAS 52-17 (44.5)
'00 ST LOUIS 23-16 (47.5)
'02 TAMPA BAY 48-21 (44)
'04 NE 24-21 (48)