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I only bet 3-4 fights a year, normally, but I win a lot more than I lose, usually on small dogs. This is a bet that I love.
The last time I put this much money on a fight was when Klitscko (wlad, not vitali) fought Samuel Peter. I knew Peter had NOTHING but a big punch...and that unless he could land it on Klit, who is a highly skille boxer, despite having a dubious chin...that Klit, despite being an almost 2-1 dog, would win. There were a couple of worrying moments, but Klitscko basically destroyed Peter.
The two fights I plan to REALLY hit hard are the Danny Williams/Matt Skelton fight, and the Jeff Lacy/Joe Calzaghe fights. Both are VERY good bets. Below is my reasoining for the Williams/Skelton fight. Americans will know little or nothing about either fighter, but thanks to the magic of the internet, you can certainly BET on them.
The Williams/Skelton fight is the slightly more speculative of the two upcoming fights on which I have VERY strong opinions...but you'll be getting +200 or more, so it SHOULD be a bit speculative
Danny Williams, who is known to Americans primarily as the guy who beat Tyson, fights Matt Skelton in London on Feb 25. After Williams beat Tyson, Tyson then when on to lose to a completely useless Irishman (Kevin McBride)...which led most people to believe that Williams has no talent, and his win over Tyson was a reflection of Tyson being "shot", rather than Williams having anything in the tank. 'Partially true, but not entirely.
Williams is indeed sitting somewhere in the nether land between very high-level Club Fighter...and very low-level Fringe Contender. When he fought Vitali it was like man against boy, showing that Williams isn't and never *will* be a world class heavyweight. But last month he finally rid the boxing world of Audley Harrison...in one of the most boring decisions of all time. But Williams *did* beat Harrison, who did after all win an Olympic Gold Medal. Williams is also hard to predict, because his training habits are sporadic, and you never know if the "real" Harrison will show up. If fully trained, Williams ain't too bad, and would be a plausible threat to most, but by no means all Heavyweight contenders on any given night.
Which brings us to Matt Skelton. Skelton has gained a local reputation in the UK as a "Knockout Artist"...having KOd his last six opponents, and 17 out of 18, while compiling an18-0 record. The problem is, the level of his opponents has been so low that even most people in the UK have never heard of them. Skelton reminds me of Samuel Peter...only worse (if you can believe that). Big, slow and clumsy, with a big punch. But only a true club fighter would let a guy like Skelton lay a hand on him. Think of The Mummy...plodding around the ring mechanically, throwing monster haymakers at about 2mph.
The last time Skelton fought anyone with ANY boxing skills, was in 2004, when he fought the mighty Julius Francis...who he managed to beat on points. Francis was 40 years old at the time, and weighed 260 pounds. A fat, old fighter who even in his "prime" wasn't very good.....and Skelton's string of KOs ended when he met Francis. That tells you a lot.
Skelton did recently KO Mark Krence, a local UK fighter.....and someone who has some boxing ability. BUT....first of all Krence weighed 218 for the fight...and Skelton weighed in at 254...not exactly an even match up (they'd be 3 or 4 weight divisions apart in anything other than the HW division, and wouldn't be allowed in the same ring together). But that's not the telling fact. Krence....who works as a butcher and boxes more or less part time...was only called in as a substitute ON THE MORNING OF THE FIGHT. Yep...on a few hours notice. And he STILL made Skelton look bad...and made it 7 rounds, without having trained, before finally taking his inevitable medicine.
In my view, the public's preoccupation with "Knockout Artists" is going to lose the public a lot of money on this fight...just as it did on the Klitscko/Peter fight, on which I bet a fortune on Klitscko at +190. Peter DIDN'T manage to KO Klitscko, which was the ONLY way he'd ever have won...and despite a couple of scary moments, Klitscko gave Peter a boxing lesson.
Skelton is in the same position as Peter was. He will NEVER beat Williams on points, Williams actually has semi-decent boxing skills. Williams, it must be pointed out, isn't a *fraction* the fighter that Wladamir Klitscko is...but then, bad as Peter is, he's light years above Skelton. Skelton is now 38, has virtually ZERO boxing skills and will only win if Williams let's him land one of his 2mph bombs. Williams, at 32, is far and away the better fighter (not that this is saying much, Skelton has fewer skills than anyone I can recall)...and only Williams' flakey recent history of cancelling the last fight with Skelton at the last minute....and not always training as hard as he should has put in in the position of being an underdog.
A trained and motivated Williams will box circles around Skelton. There is a bit of a risk here...because nobody can predict how Williams will train for this fight. But after beating Harrison in his last fight, I think Williams senses the opportunity to be thought of as THE MAN in British Heavyweight boxing....which he certainly would be if he beat Skelton.
I see a one-sided win for Williams....and at +200, I view this as nearly stealing...with the ONLY qualification being that I can't know for SURE that Williams will fully dedicate himself (as Skelton certainly will). If Williams comes in prepared, this won't be close unless Skelton gets lucky and lands one of those sloooooooooooow bombs, which I view as unlikely.
Remember...ANY bet can lose, so don't bet your house, but the risk/reward ratio here is extremely attractive.
Next week I'll put up my opinion on the Lacy/Calgahe fight. I know that there is no such thing as a "lock"...but this fight is as close as it gets. In the meanwhile, get on Williams. When I first started getting money on Williams he was +280. He's now down to +200 and dropping fast. He lives and trains a few miles from my house, and it seems that his training is going well, which is reflecting itself in the line.
The last time I put this much money on a fight was when Klitscko (wlad, not vitali) fought Samuel Peter. I knew Peter had NOTHING but a big punch...and that unless he could land it on Klit, who is a highly skille boxer, despite having a dubious chin...that Klit, despite being an almost 2-1 dog, would win. There were a couple of worrying moments, but Klitscko basically destroyed Peter.
The two fights I plan to REALLY hit hard are the Danny Williams/Matt Skelton fight, and the Jeff Lacy/Joe Calzaghe fights. Both are VERY good bets. Below is my reasoining for the Williams/Skelton fight. Americans will know little or nothing about either fighter, but thanks to the magic of the internet, you can certainly BET on them.
The Williams/Skelton fight is the slightly more speculative of the two upcoming fights on which I have VERY strong opinions...but you'll be getting +200 or more, so it SHOULD be a bit speculative
Danny Williams, who is known to Americans primarily as the guy who beat Tyson, fights Matt Skelton in London on Feb 25. After Williams beat Tyson, Tyson then when on to lose to a completely useless Irishman (Kevin McBride)...which led most people to believe that Williams has no talent, and his win over Tyson was a reflection of Tyson being "shot", rather than Williams having anything in the tank. 'Partially true, but not entirely.
Williams is indeed sitting somewhere in the nether land between very high-level Club Fighter...and very low-level Fringe Contender. When he fought Vitali it was like man against boy, showing that Williams isn't and never *will* be a world class heavyweight. But last month he finally rid the boxing world of Audley Harrison...in one of the most boring decisions of all time. But Williams *did* beat Harrison, who did after all win an Olympic Gold Medal. Williams is also hard to predict, because his training habits are sporadic, and you never know if the "real" Harrison will show up. If fully trained, Williams ain't too bad, and would be a plausible threat to most, but by no means all Heavyweight contenders on any given night.
Which brings us to Matt Skelton. Skelton has gained a local reputation in the UK as a "Knockout Artist"...having KOd his last six opponents, and 17 out of 18, while compiling an18-0 record. The problem is, the level of his opponents has been so low that even most people in the UK have never heard of them. Skelton reminds me of Samuel Peter...only worse (if you can believe that). Big, slow and clumsy, with a big punch. But only a true club fighter would let a guy like Skelton lay a hand on him. Think of The Mummy...plodding around the ring mechanically, throwing monster haymakers at about 2mph.
The last time Skelton fought anyone with ANY boxing skills, was in 2004, when he fought the mighty Julius Francis...who he managed to beat on points. Francis was 40 years old at the time, and weighed 260 pounds. A fat, old fighter who even in his "prime" wasn't very good.....and Skelton's string of KOs ended when he met Francis. That tells you a lot.
Skelton did recently KO Mark Krence, a local UK fighter.....and someone who has some boxing ability. BUT....first of all Krence weighed 218 for the fight...and Skelton weighed in at 254...not exactly an even match up (they'd be 3 or 4 weight divisions apart in anything other than the HW division, and wouldn't be allowed in the same ring together). But that's not the telling fact. Krence....who works as a butcher and boxes more or less part time...was only called in as a substitute ON THE MORNING OF THE FIGHT. Yep...on a few hours notice. And he STILL made Skelton look bad...and made it 7 rounds, without having trained, before finally taking his inevitable medicine.
In my view, the public's preoccupation with "Knockout Artists" is going to lose the public a lot of money on this fight...just as it did on the Klitscko/Peter fight, on which I bet a fortune on Klitscko at +190. Peter DIDN'T manage to KO Klitscko, which was the ONLY way he'd ever have won...and despite a couple of scary moments, Klitscko gave Peter a boxing lesson.
Skelton is in the same position as Peter was. He will NEVER beat Williams on points, Williams actually has semi-decent boxing skills. Williams, it must be pointed out, isn't a *fraction* the fighter that Wladamir Klitscko is...but then, bad as Peter is, he's light years above Skelton. Skelton is now 38, has virtually ZERO boxing skills and will only win if Williams let's him land one of his 2mph bombs. Williams, at 32, is far and away the better fighter (not that this is saying much, Skelton has fewer skills than anyone I can recall)...and only Williams' flakey recent history of cancelling the last fight with Skelton at the last minute....and not always training as hard as he should has put in in the position of being an underdog.
A trained and motivated Williams will box circles around Skelton. There is a bit of a risk here...because nobody can predict how Williams will train for this fight. But after beating Harrison in his last fight, I think Williams senses the opportunity to be thought of as THE MAN in British Heavyweight boxing....which he certainly would be if he beat Skelton.
I see a one-sided win for Williams....and at +200, I view this as nearly stealing...with the ONLY qualification being that I can't know for SURE that Williams will fully dedicate himself (as Skelton certainly will). If Williams comes in prepared, this won't be close unless Skelton gets lucky and lands one of those sloooooooooooow bombs, which I view as unlikely.
Remember...ANY bet can lose, so don't bet your house, but the risk/reward ratio here is extremely attractive.
Next week I'll put up my opinion on the Lacy/Calgahe fight. I know that there is no such thing as a "lock"...but this fight is as close as it gets. In the meanwhile, get on Williams. When I first started getting money on Williams he was +280. He's now down to +200 and dropping fast. He lives and trains a few miles from my house, and it seems that his training is going well, which is reflecting itself in the line.
It's always noon somewhere! 
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