Make Money Off Survivor Contest

[moondog22]

Moon, quick question. If he wins game 10, what would you wager for game 11?

$50,12-$125 then quit win or lose and move on to another one thats won 9 in a row.

[capperjohn1]

$50,12-$125 then quit win or lose and move on to another one thats won 9 in a row.

Thanks for the response. I'm curious, is nine the current leader or did you just pick that randomly? I guess I was wondering how last night's game affect tonight's pick? With an independent event, what's the difference between games 3-5 and 9-11? Similiar to a roulette wheel and betting red/black. If 10 reds come out, the odds are still the same for red/black to come out on 11th spin. (And I'm speaking from a losing $$ perspective on that!!) Good luck on your fading. Hope it cashes for you!!

[moondog22]

Thanks for the response. I'm curious, is nine the current leader or did you just pick that randomly? I guess I was wondering how last night's game affect tonight's pick? With an independent event, what's the difference between games 3-5 and 9-11? Similiar to a roulette wheel and betting red/black. If 10 reds come out, the odds are still the same for red/black to come out on 11th spin. (And I'm speaking from a losing $$ perspective on that!!) Good luck on your fading. Hope it cashes for you!!

After rethinking this maybe its better to bet against all of them.There are 4 of them at 9-0 right now.What do you think?

[capperjohn1]

I dont know!!! My head is swimming with thoughts. I mean, when is the "magic" time to fade? Aren't the picks independent of each other? Meaning to me that the odds of hitting the game tonight is the same as it was last night which will be the same as tomm. Other then the juice factor. I mean would you fade a guy who won his game last night? Or fade if he lost, thinking he's due? I really don't know the answer. I just know I lost some scratch chasing black on a roulette table that had 12 reds in a row. I walk by and see that on the board. Throw money on black thinking "its gotta switch". Like the ball knows it was just in a red slot (no pun!!) 12 times in a row. Chase it 3 times, pressing my bet each time. Had to hit my uncle up for dinner money!!!

[capperjohn1]

My little heart had started a thread last week about the odds of hitting 21 games in a row. I don't think there was ever a correct answer found. I guess the question is, would you fade if you didn't know what "run" a capper was on? And do you really think there is a difference in capping, odds, etc if someone has hit a certain number in a row? And if so, what is that number? If we assume 50/50 (w/o juice), like coin flipping (like my capping!), the further we get from 50/50, I would think the odds would be in your favor due to "deviation to the mean". Fancy words for getting back closer to true odds. But then I get back to the independence of the wager picking. Still lost I guess!!! Again, good luck in whatever you do and post what you do with results here if you don't mind!!

[cd329]

Phil, thanks for the support. I just love guys who have tons of posts always get on somebody if they dont have lots of posts. I guess you can only be right about a topic if you have lots of posts.
Hey Sustain Dan am sorry i dont have as many posts as you do, but i dont spend my whole life on a messageboard and as far as saying this to your face, i would with no problem at all.
You sound just like another internet tough guy, grow up.
Now as far as your post goes, you post a strategy on this board, that you think could win money, but you dont take the time to actually work it out on paper to see if would work. Well all i can say is that just goes to show everybody even thou you got 2900 posts, most are probably useless garbage, that you didnt give any thoughts to, meaning my 44 posts probably provide better info then yours.
Telling people to play a system that they could lose over a million dollars on, you should be ashamed of yourself, no matter how many posts you have. Am just a surprised more people didnt call you out on this trash.
Later internet tough guy

[rented mule]

Phil, thanks for the support. I just love guys who have tons of posts always get on somebody if they dont have lots of posts. I guess you can only be right about a topic if you have lots of posts.
Hey Sustain Dan am sorry i dont have as many posts as you do, but i dont spend my whole life on a messageboard and as far as saying this to your face, i would with no problem at all.
You sound just like another internet tough guy, grow up.
Now as far as your post goes, you post a strategy on this board, that you think could win money, but you dont take the time to actually work it out on paper to see if would work. Well all i can say is that just goes to show everybody even thou you got 2900 posts, most are probably useless garbage, that you didnt give any thoughts to, meaning my 44 posts probably provide better info then yours.
Telling people to play a system that they could lose over a million dollars on, you should be ashamed of yourself, no matter how many posts you have. Am just a surprised more people didnt call you out on this trash.
Later internet tough guy

Hall of fame post. Summarizes a lot of the goings on here lately.