Announcement

**crswir** · 01-20-2006, 11:57 AM

Sunday, January 22nd

AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh at Denver, 3:00 EST
Game Preview Coming Soon

Pittsburgh:
6-0 Over off a SU win as a road underdog
6-1 Over off a road win

Denver:
8-0 ATS off a home game
6-0 ATS off a win by 14+ points

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NFC Championship Game
Carolina at Seattle, 6:30 EST
Game Preview Coming Soon

Carolina:
11-1 ATS as an underdog
6-0 ATS in playoff games

Seattle:
8-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
13-4 Over off a home game

Friday, January 20th

St. Louis at Columbus, 7:05 EST
St. Louis: 2-16 SU off a road loss
Columbus: 4-0 SU after allowing 3 goals or more 4 straight games

Chicago at Minnesota, 8:05 EST
Chicago: 8-2 SU in road games after having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games
Minnesota: 2-7 SU in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game

Tampa Bay at Dallas, 8:35 EST
Tampa Bay: 19-4 SU off a road win by 2 goals or more
Dallas: 13-3 Over after 2 straight losses by 2 goals or more

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 09:32 AM

NFL playoff analysis
Pittsburgh @ Denver-- Third week in row on road for Steelers, as they try to reach Super Bowl for second time under Cowher, who has had trouble in past, losing AFC title games at home. Denver won Super Bowl seven and eight years ago, but Plummer is not Elway, and Roethlisberger isn't Bradshaw (Steelers haven't won Super Bowl in 26 years). Bronco offense was struggling last wk, before pass interference late in half led to score, then turnovers got them the win. Thjey fall behind ground-loving Steelers, this result won't be as happy as last week's was.

Carolina @ Seattle-- Fourth week in row away from home field for banged-up Panthers, with team down to undrafted RB's. Peppers is questionmark with bum shoulder. Things have fallen Seattle's way all season; not sure if OT Locklear's legal problems early in week will be the distraction they usually are, since charges were not pressed and he is playing (plus, it was early in week). Shaun Alexander had concussion last week; he should go here, but he has lousy playoff history. I like Delhomme over Hasselbeck, the coaching matchup is push, but home field is big edge for home fans who have waited 29 years for this day.

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:26 AM

NBA Trends:

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Additional Trends:Sunday, 1/22/2006

PHILADELPHIA (19 - 20) at MINNESOTA (19 - 18) - 1/22/2006, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 90-57 ATS (+27.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (22 - 19) at SAN ANTONIO (31 - 9) - 1/22/2006, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 129-103 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 112-86 ATS (+17.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 72-44 ATS (+23.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 49-32 ATS (+13.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 70-56 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 10-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 11-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
11 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (23 - 15) at WASHINGTON (18 - 20) - 1/22/2006, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 78-53 ATS (+19.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 55-71 ATS (-23.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 24-39 ATS (-18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:26 AM

NCAA Basketball Trends

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Additional Trends:Sunday, 1/22/2006

RUTGERS (12 - 5) at CINCINNATI (13 - 5) - 1/22/2006, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RUTGERS is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ILLINOIS ST (7 - 9) at S ILLINOIS (13 - 5) - 1/22/2006, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all home games this season.
S ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
S ILLINOIS is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
S ILLINOIS is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
S ILLINOIS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
ILLINOIS ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
S ILLINOIS is 3-1 against the spread versus ILLINOIS ST over the last 3 seasons
S ILLINOIS is 4-0 straight up against ILLINOIS ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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EVANSVILLE (5 - 11) at CREIGHTON (12 - 4) - 1/22/2006, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EVANSVILLE is 19-37 ATS (-21.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
EVANSVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus CREIGHTON over the last 3 seasons
CREIGHTON is 3-1 straight up against EVANSVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:27 AM

NHL Hockey Trends

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Additional Trends:
Sunday, 1/22/2006

NEW JERSEY (25-18-0-5, 55 pts.) at NY RANGERS (27-14-0-7, 61 pts.) - 1/22/2006, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 5-10 ATS (-8.7 Units) after a division game this season.
NY RANGERS are 8-1 ATS (+9.1 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
NEW JERSEY is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in January games this season.
NEW JERSEY is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
NY RANGERS are 63-97 ATS (-81.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 82-99 ATS (+82.0 Units) as a home underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 130-151 ATS (+130.0 Units) as a home favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 155-189 ATS (+155.0 Units) in home games against the puck line since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 43-62 ATS (+43.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 19-36 ATS (-23.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 13-24 ATS (-26.0 Units) in home games when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 42-59 ATS (-46.7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 6-5 (+0.3 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 6-4-1 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.0 Units)

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MINNESOTA (22-21-0-4, 48 pts.) at CHICAGO (16-26-0-6, 38 pts.) - 1/22/2006, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 150-141 ATS (+304.4 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 11-5 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-13 ATS (+23.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
CHICAGO is 18-36 ATS (+73.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 31-45 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1996.
CHICAGO is 111-149 ATS (+111.0 Units) as a home favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-2 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:30 AM

Steelers, Broncos meet in AFC Championship

The Denver Broncos will be looking to extend their home winning streak to nine games when they tangle this week with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game.

Denver brings a 14-3 overall mark into this game versus a Pittsburgh team carrying a 13-5 record. Denver opened as a slight, 3-point favorite at home in this game, while the opening total was set at 41.5 points.

Bill Cowher's team upset Indianapolis 21-18 Sunday as 8.5-point underdogs. Indy had a chance to tie the game, but Mike Vanderjagt missed a 46-yard FG attempt in the final minute. The game was an UNDER play.

Mike Shanahan's team hopes to build upon a 27-13 win over New England. They were 3-point favorites and covered the spread. That game also fell UNDER the posted total.

Denver brings one of the league's best running games into this contest, averaging 158.7 yards per game. Pittsburgh is the first No. 6 seed to advance to a conference championship.

Some trends to consider:
Pittsburgh is 2-8-0 OU in its last 10 away
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Pittsburgh is 7-3-0 SU in its last 10 games after being 7.5 to 10 point underdogs
Pittsburgh is 5-2-0 OU in its last 7 games against Denver
Denver is 5-1-0 ATS in its last 6 home games
Denver is 10-2-0 ATS in its last 12 games
Denver is 5-1-0 SU in its last 6 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Denver is 7-2-0 ATS in its last 9 games after scoring 21 to 30 points.

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Panthers, Seahawks square off in NFC Championship

The Seattle Seahawks will be looking to pick up yet another home win this weekend when they play the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship.

Sporting a 13-5 overall record, the visiting Panthers aim to instead knock the Seahawks for a loss. Seattle opened as a 6-point favorite in the NFC title game, while the opening OVER/UNDER was set by oddsmakers at 44 points.

John Fox's team downed the Chicago Bears 29-21 as 3-point underdogs last week. The 50 points scored sent that game OVER the total of 31.5.

Mike Holmgren's team did what they were supposed to do to advance to the conference championship, defeating Washington 20-10 as 9.5-point favorites. The 30 points sent that game UNDER the total of 41.

Expect the league's top offense to put points on the board and generate trouble for the Panthers, who have advanced to the conference title game for the second time in three years.

Some trends to consider:
Carolina is 1-6-0 ATS in its last 7 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Carolina is 3-7-0 OU in its last 10 games
Carolina is 9-17-0 SU in its last 26 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Carolina is 11-4-0 OU in its last 15 away
Seattle is 5-0-0 SU in its last 5 games after scoring 10 to 20 points
Seattle is 4-1-0 ATS in its last 5 home games
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 2-6-0 SU in its last 8 games after being 7.5 to 10 point favorites.

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:32 AM

Something I came across .............

Play AGAINST the team that beats the defending Super Bowl champs in the playoffs if their next game is NOT the Super Bowl.

REASONING: Beating the Super Bowl champs requires a great deal of emotional effort. Teams are not able to regroup after doing so unless they have that week off prior to the Super Bowl to reenergize. Since 1982, this situation has occured 8 times and the teams that knocked off the defending Super Bowl champs are 0-8 SU AND ATS. The most recent being 2001, when the Steelers beat the Ravens in the playoffs only to lose SU the following week to the Patriots as double digit home favorites.

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:36 AM

Carolina (13-5) at Seattle (14-3)

Whether the Seattle Seahawks or Carolina Panthers prevail in Sunday's NFC Championship game at Qwest Field, someone will be making history.

The host Seahawks, already making their first NFC Championship appearance in team history, have a chance to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in a mostly mediocre 30-year existence. Mike Holmgren's top-seeded squad earned the franchise's first playoff win since 1984 with last Saturday's 20-10 win over the Redskins, in turn ending the NFL's longest-running drought without a postseason win. Seattle's Championship game appearance is just its second in team history, and first since the '84 club fell to then-Los Angeles Raiders in the AFC title game. The Seahawks were relocated to the NFC prior to the 2002 season, and last week's win was their first postseason triumph since making the shift.

Carolina, meanwhile, will be heading into Seattle attempting to become the first team in NFC history to win three straight road games en route to a Super Bowl appearance. The Panthers, who began their postseason run with wins at the Giants (23-0) and Bears (29-21), would join the 1985 Patriots and perhaps the 2005 Steelers (who will play at Denver in the first leg of Sunday's double- header) as the only clubs in NFL annals to win three consecutive playoff games away from their friendly confines. John Fox and company are also trying to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons, after winning their first NFC title following the 2003 campaign.

SERIES HISTORY

The Panthers and Seahawks will be meeting in a postseason game for the first time.

The teams have split a pair of regular season meetings, with Seattle losing in its only trip to Carolina, 26-3, in 2000, and the Panthers falling, 23-17, in their only all-time journey to Seattle, in 2004.

Holmgren has a career record of 4-1 against the Panthers, including 1-1 since taking over the Seattle franchise in 1999. Holmgren's Packers were 30-13 home winners over the Panthers in the 1996 NFC Championship. Fox is 0-1 head-to- head against both Holmgren and the Seahawks in his career.

PANTHERS OFFENSE VS. SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

Seeking to build on back-to-back electric performances will be Carolina wide receiver Steve Smith, who proved basically unstoppable against the Giants and Bears in the last two weeks. In two playoff games this year, the All-Pro has 22 catches for 302 yards with three touchdowns, along with another 38 yards and a score in the rushing game. Smith led the NFL with 103 receptions and 1,543 receiving yards during the regular season, and was tied for the league lead with 12 touchdown catches. Quarterback Jake Delhomme (459 passing yards, 4 TD, 1 INT) ran his career playoff record to 5-1 last week (best among remaining postseason QBs), completing 24-of-33 passes for 319 yards with three touchdowns and an interception against the Bears' heralded defense. In addition to Smith, Delhomme connected three times for 28 yards to veteran Ricky Proehl, and twice for 43 yards to first-year pro Drew Carter. No. 2 receiver Keary Colbert (3 receptions) and tight end Kris Mangum (2 receptions, 1 TD) had one catch each in Chicago, with Mangum's one-yard reception going for a touchdown. The Carolina line allowed just one sack of Delhomme last Sunday, after surrendering eight in the first meeting with the Bears. The Panthers were 17th in NFL passing offense (204.4 yards per game) during the regular campaign.

Delhomme will have to steer clear of a Seahawks pass rush that generated a league-high 50 sacks during the regular season. Seattle was able to drop Washington's Mark Brunell just twice last Saturday, with end Bryce Fisher and tackle Chuck Darby both breaking through with their first sacks of the 2005 postseason. Fisher, who also had eight tackles in the triumph, led the Hawks with nine sacks during the regular season. Matching up with Smith this week will likely be cornerback Marcus Trufant, who was partly responsible for a seven-catch, 103-yard effort from Washington wideout Santana Moss last week. Trufant will require some help from safeties Michael Boulware (7 tackles) and Marquand Manuel (2 tackles), who combined for nine tackles and four pass breakups against the Redskins in the divisional round. The Seahawks secondary allowed former Carolina receiver Muhsin Muhammad to ring up eight catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns when the Seahawks met the Panthers in 2004. Seattle was just 25th in the league in passing defense (222.4 yards per game) in the regular season.

Of major concern for the Panthers is the status of the running game, as running back DeShaun Foster (205 rushing yards) will miss the rest of the year with a broken ankle suffered in last week's win. Foster is the second Carolina starting back to be lost for the year, after Stephen Davis went down during the regular season with a knee injury. That situation places the spotlight on the unheralded Nick Goings (97 rushing yards), who will be making the first postseason start of his career. Goings, a fifth-year pro out of Pittsburgh, started eight games due to injuries last season and managed five 100-yard outings. Goings will likely be spelled by backup Jamal Robertson, whose only touch of the postseason to date was a reception for a 10-yard loss against the Bears last week. Fullback Brad Hoover (2 receptions) can also carry the ball in a pinch. The Panthers were 19th in the league in rushing offense (104.9 yards per game) during the regular season.

Seattle, which was fifth in the NFL against the run (94.4 yards per game) during the regular campaign, comes off a week in which it held the Redskins running game to just 59 ground yards on 25 carries. Redskins running back Clinton Portis, who had five straight 100-yard games to end the regular season, managed just 41 yards on 17 carries on the afternoon. Rookie linebackers Lofa Tatupu (10 tackles) and Leroy Hill (9 tackles) were at the heart of the run-stopping effort, totaling 19 stops in the first career playoff appearance for both. Also coming up big was the interior line rotation of Darby, Marcus Tubbs, Rocky Bernard, and Craig Terrill. Each member of that quartet had multiple tackles in the victory, with Darby (5 tackles) and Terrill (4 tackles) ranking as the most active members of the group.

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE VS. PANTHERS DEFENSE

Seahawks fans everywhere held their collective breath last week when running back and 2005 NFL MVP Shaun Alexander left the game in the first quarter with a concussion. Seattle was able to defeat Washington in Alexander's absence, but clearly, the Seahawks would like to avoid a similar scenario for a second straight week. Alexander is officially regarded as questionable for Sunday, but is expected to play. In his only other appearance against the Panthers, which came in the 2004 regular season, Alexander carried 32 times for 195 yards and two touchdowns. With the All-Pro out of the lineup last week, backup Maurice Morris and fullback Mack Strong were forced to carry the load. Morris had 65 yards on 19 total touches in the win, and Strong carried three times for 40 yards, including a 32-yard run. Alexander rushed six times for nine yards before departing. The Hawks were third in the league in rushing offense (153.6 yards per game) during the regular season.

Alexander or whomever does the rushing for the Seahawks will be up against a Carolina defense that was fourth in the NFL against the run (91.6 yards per game) during the regular season and held the Giants' Tiki Barber and Bears' Thomas Jones in check the last two weeks. The run-first Bears managed just 97 ground yards on 27 carries versus the Panthers last Sunday. The Carolina defensive tackle rotation of Jordan Carstens (3 tackles, 2 sacks), Brentson Buckner, and Kindal Moorehead (1 tackle) received high marks all season, and helped provide a presence at the point of attack against the Bears. Carstens was credited with his second career postseason sack in last week's win, and Buckner had one of the line's three pass deflections in the contest. The Panther linebacking corps of Dan Morgan (9 tackles), Will Witherspoon (10 tackles, 1 sack), and Brandon Short (9 tackles) has also been active in the postseason. Morgan had a team-high seven tackles against Chicago, and Witherspoon and Short logged five stops each in the contest.

In light of the absence of Alexander for most of last Saturday's game, the solid work of quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was doubly impressive. Hasselbeck secured his first career playoff win by completing 15-of-26 passes for 215 yards with a touchdown, walking off the field with a strong passer rating of 100.6. Hasselbeck's favorite target was the resurgent Darrell Jackson, who caught nine passes for 143 yards and a touchdown in his best game since undergoing knee surgery earlier in the season. No. 2 receiver Bobby Engram and tight end Jerramy Stevens both added a pair of catches in the victory, and No. 3 wideout Joe Jurevicius had a 31-yard reception in his first playoff game as a Seahawk. The Seattle line did not allow a single sack of Hasselbeck in the contest. In his only other appearance against the Panthers, Hasselbeck was 21- of-30 for 201 yards and a touchdown in a 23-17 win during the '04 regular season. Seattle was 13th in the league in passing offense (216.1 yards per game) during the 2005 regular campaign.

There is some nervousness in Panthers camp about the health of defensive end Julius Peppers (5 tackles, 1 sack), who was knocked out of last week's win with a shoulder injury and is considered questionable for Sunday. If Peppers, who led the Panthers with 10.5 sacks during the regular season, is unable to go, backup Al Wallace (25 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 INT in the regular season) would likely be pressed into starting service opposite Mike Rucker (5 tackles). Carolina had just one sack of Chicago's Rex Grossman last Sunday. Peppers' possible absence will put a great deal of pressure on a secondary that has played extraordinarily well during the postseason to date. Cornerback Ken Lucas (7 tackles, 2 INT) and safety Marlon McCree (8 tackles, 2 INT) are tied for the NFL lead in postseason picks, with Lucas notching the only interception off of Grossman last Sunday. Elsewhere in the secondary, free safety Mike Minter (10 tackles) ranked among team leaders with six tackles in Chicago. The Panthers were ninth in NFL passing defense (191.1 yards per game) during the regular season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Carolina kicker John Kasay is a perfect 6-of-6 on field goals during the 2005 postseason, and banged home kicks of 20, 38, and 37 yards in the second quarter of last week's win over the Bears. None of Kasay's 12 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, however. Punter Jason Baker has averaged just 39.7 yards per kick in the postseason, but has landed an NFL-best five of his nine punts inside the 20-yard line. Jamal Robertson has a 23.4 average on kickoff returns, with a long of 34, and the ever-dangerous Steve Smith has yet to break a long return on just two punt return attempts.

Seahawks kicker Josh Brown made good on a pair of key field goal attempts last Saturday, connecting on tries of 33 and 31 yards in the fourth quarter. Brown was 18-of-25 during the regular season, including 5-of-8 from 50 yards or more. Punter Tom Rouen averaged 42.4 yards on five punts last week, including four kicks that landed inside the 20-yard line. Seattle had some trouble in the return game against the Redskins, as both punt returner Jimmy Williams and kickoff return man Josh Scobey lost fumbles in the win. Williams' muff set up a Redskins field goal, and Scobey's fourth-quarter miscue set up a missed field goal for Washington. Neither player is expected to lose his job over the errors, but the Hawks do have Peter Warrick (4.8 punt return avg.) and Maurice Morris (21.0 kickoff return avg.) if the team opts to make a change. Warrick has two punt returns for touchdowns in his career, but was inactive last week.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Carolina comes into Seattle red-hot, but that doesn't change the fact that the odds are stacked heavily against the Panthers this week. The Seahawks undoubtedly learned enough from the Giants and the Bears to devote extra special attention to Steve Smith, and the fact that Seattle had the top-ranked pass rush in the league during the regular season also figures to impact Delhomme's ability to throw the ball downfield to his star receiver. That means the Carolina running game will have to be effective, and while Goings is a credible spot player, there is little chance of him running wild and making a huge difference in the outcome of the game. On the other side of the football, the Panthers won't be facing a young quarterback like Eli Manning or Rex Grossman, they'll be going up against the veteran Hasselbeck, who has playoff experience, knows how to run his offense against all kinds of defensive looks, and has proven that he can get the job done even if Alexander is at less than 100 percent. The Seahawks will take control in the second half, and will move on to Super Bowl XL.

Predicted Outcome: Seahawks 23, Panthers 17

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:36 AM

Pittsburgh (13-5) at Denver (14-3)

When the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers meet for the AFC Championship at Invesco Field at Mile High on Sunday afternoon, NFL fans will be experiencing something of a throwback.

The Broncos and Steelers have reached the conference title game with a classic gridiron style that emphasizes running the football and playing hard-nosed defense.

What viewers will also be witnessing is two storied franchises attempting to break through to the Super Bowl stage for the first time in this decade.

The Broncos, who began their postseason journey with a 27-13 win over two-time defending Super Bowl champ New England last week, have not reached the ultimate stage since the 1998 season, when they hoisted the second of their two consecutive Lombardi Trophies. Last Sunday's triumph over the Pats marked the first playoff win for the Broncos in the post-John Elway era, and moved Denver to 9-0 at home this year.

In addition to trying to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1995, Pittsburgh will this week be trying to establish a place for themselves in NFL history. The Steelers, who began their playoff run with wins over the Bengals (31-17) and Colts (21-18), are attempting to become the first No. 6 seed to reach the postseason's final stage. Bill Cowher's squad is also trying to become just the second team in league history to win three straight road games en route to a Super Sunday appearance, joining the 1985 New England Patriots. The Carolina Panthers will try to pull off a similar feat with a win in Seattle in the second game of Sunday's double-header.

SERIES HISTORY

The Broncos and Steelers have met five previous times in the postseason, with Denver holding a 3-2 edge in that series. Denver is 2-1 in home playoff games versus Pittsburgh, winning a 1977 AFC Divisional Playoff (34-21) and a 1989 Divisional Playoff (24-23), while losing a 1984 AFC Divisional Playoff (24-17). The Broncos were also road winners in the 1997 AFC Championship (24-21), and dropped a 33-10 decision in a 1978 AFC Divisional Playoff from Three Rivers Stadium.

Denver has a 11-6-1 advantage in the all-time regular season series, including a 6-2-1 edge in home games. The Broncos were 17-14 home winners when the teams last faced off, in 2003, and have now won three straight decisions played in Denver. The Steelers are 0-3 in Denver since last winning there during the 1990 regular season, and their last win of any kind over the Broncos came in 1997 in the Steel City.

Denver head coach Mike Shanahan is 2-1 in his career against the Steelers, including the 1997 playoff win. Pittsburgh's Cowher is 1-3 in his career against the Broncos, including the 1997 playoff loss, and is 1-2 head-to-head against Shanahan.

STEELERS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE

The Steelers will undoubtedly come out running the football on Sunday, with the thunder-and-lightning combination of Jerome Bettis (98 rushing yards, 2 TD in playoffs) and Willie Parker (97 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 1 TD) trying to keep the chains moving for Pittsburgh. Neither Bettis nor Parker has approached the 100-yard mark in the playoffs thus far, but both have had their moments. Bettis, whose game against the Colts will probably be best-remembered for a nearly-crucial fumble in the waning moments, has scored touchdowns in four consecutive postseason games. Bettis rushed for a playoff-best 105 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos in the 1997 AFC Championship. Parker, meanwhile, led the Steelers with 59 yards on 17 carries against Indianapolis last week, and is pacing the team with six catches in the '05 playoffs. Third- down back Verron Haynes (54 rushing yards) has seen a few touches a contest, while fullback Dan Kreider has attempted to open holes for his teammates. The Steelers were fifth in the league in rushing offense (138.9 yards per game) during the regular season.

Bettis and Parker could find running room difficult to find against a Denver defense that was second in the NFL against the run (85.2 yards per game) during the regular season. The Broncos held the Patriots running game to just 79 yards on 21 carries last Saturday, including 57 yards for starting rusher Corey Dillon. Shanahan's team was strong on the interior line all year, as tackles Gerard Warren and Michael Myers helped slow the run from the point of attack. Neither Warren nor Myers had a tackle against the Patriots last Sunday, but helped set starting linebackers Al Wilson (11 tackles), Ian Gold (6 tackles), and D.J. Williams (4 tackles) up for several stops. In addition to his six tackles, Gold recovered a Kevin Faulk fumble to help set up a touchdown near the end of the first half.

Attempting to move to 4-1 as a playoff starter will be Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger (405 passing yards, 5 TD, 1 INT), who has been efficient as ever during the 2005 postseason. Roethlisberger, who completed 14-of-24 passes for 197 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in last week's win over the Colts, carries a sterling playoff passer rating of 124.7 with him into Sunday's tilt. "Big Ben" will be looking to erase the memories of the 2004 AFC Championship, when he threw three interceptions in a home loss to the Patriots. Wideouts Hines Ward (5 receptions, 1 TD), Antwaan Randle El (5 receptions, 1 TD), and Cedrick Wilson (3 receptions, 1 TD) have all made an impact in the playoffs thus far, as has tight end Heath Miller (5 receptions, 1 TD). Ward led the Steelers with 68 receiving yards in the win over the Colts, and Randle El and Miller both had touchdown catches. The Pittsburgh line has done a good job of keeping Roethlisberger out of harm's way, as he has been dropped just three times in the team's first two playoff games. The Steelers were 24th in the league in passing offense (182.9 yards per game) in the regular campaign.

Roethlisberger may want to take some chances downfield against a Broncos defense that was just 29th in the NFL against the pass (227.7 yards per game) during the regular season. Denver allowed Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to throw for 341 yards last week, but also made a couple of big plays against the Pro Bowler to help the Broncos to the victory. Cornerback Champ Bailey helped set up a touchdown by intercepting a Brady pass in the end zone and rumbling 100 yards to the Denver 1-yard line in the second half. Fellow secondary staple John Lynch also notched a pick of Brady from his free safety slot. Elsewhere in the secondary, rookie nickel back Domonique Foxworth logged nine tackles in his first career postseason game, and strong safety Nick Ferguson tallied five stops. Predictably, a Broncos team that ranked near the bottom of the NFL with just 28 sacks during the regular season did not manage to get to Brady last week. End Courtney Brown was able to come up with a forced fumble in the game, however, jarring the ball loose from Faulk to help set up a key touchdown.

BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. STEELERS DEFENSE

The Broncos boasted the NFL's second-ranked rushing offense (158.7 yards per game) during the regular season, and like Pittsburgh, will make every effort to get the ground game in gear early on Sunday. Mike Anderson received most of the rushing work in last week's win over the Patriots, carrying 19 times for 69 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a stout New England run defense. The shiftier Tatum Bell saw less action, amassing 19 yards on just six carries, and doesn't figure to be a primary part of the offensive game plan against the Steelers' physical stop unit either. Third running back Ron Dayne was active in last week's game but did not have a carry, and fullback Kyle Johnson, who scored six touchdowns in the regular season, also went without a touch against the Pats.

Anderson and Bell will be working against a Steeler defense that was third in the NFL against the run during the regular season (86 yards per game), and has begun the postseason by holding the Bengals' Rudi Johnson and Colts' Edgerrin James firmly in check on the ground. James was held to 56 rushing yards with a touchdown on 13 carries last Sunday. The three-man Pittsburgh front of nose tackle Casey Hampton (2 tackles) and ends Kimo von Oelhoffen (2 tackles, 1 sack) and Aaron Smith (4 tackles) has provided a strong presence at the point of attack, with inside linebackers James Farrior (14 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Larry Foote (12 tackles, 0.5 sacks) ranking among the team's top tacklers through two playoff games. Farrior posted a team-high 10 tackles against the Colts last Sunday.

Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer helped dispel doubts about his abilities in big-game situations last Saturday, when he completed an efficient 15-of-26 passes for 197 yards with a touchdown and an interception against the Patriots. The playoff win was the first for Plummer as a Bronco, and was also his first since the 1998 postseason, when he led the Arizona Cardinals to an upset victory of the Dallas Cowboys. Plummer's top target last week was trusty No. 1 receiver Rod Smith, who hauled in six passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. Smith has now scored a TD in four of his last five postseason games. The veteran had six catches for 87 yards against the Steelers in the 1997 AFC Championship. Also involved in the New England win were No. 2 wideout Ashley Lelie, who hauled in five passes for 50 yards, and tight end Jeb Putzier, who had three receptions for 37 yards. The strong Denver line allowed Plummer to be sacked just twice last week, and surrendered only 23 sacks during the entire 2005 regular season. The Broncos were 18th in NFL passing offense (201.7 yards per game) during the regular campaign.

Plummer and the Denver offensive line will have to contend with a Steeler pass rush that has broken through for a total of nine sacks in its first two playoff outings. Pittsburgh dropped the Colts' Peyton Manning, who had been sacked just 20 times during the regular season, on five occasions last week. Farrior was credited with two-and-a-half sacks in the game, and outside linebacker Joey Porter (5 tackles, 2 sacks) and von Oelhoffen logged a total of two-and-a-half as well. Outside linebacker Clark Haggans (7 tackles, 0.5 sacks), who was second on the team behind Porter in sacks during the regular campaign, has been mostly absent from the sack column but has been applying his usual heavy pressure. The Steelers' secondary has done a good job against the high-octane passing attacks of the Bengals and Colts, keeping the likes of Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne from burning them with big plays. Cornerbacks Ike Taylor (12 tackles) and Deshea Townsend (8 tackles) will likely match up with Rod Smith and Lelie on Sunday, with safeties Troy Polamalu (13 tackles, 1 INT, 0.5 sacks) and Chris Hope (8 tackles) lending support. Polamalu had an interception against the Bengals in the Wild Card round, and had what should have been his second pick of the playoffs wiped out by a dubious officiating call in last week's game. The Steelers were 16th in the league against the pass (198 yards per game) during the regular season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Steelers kicker Jeff Reed has made his only field goal attempt of the playoffs thus far, a 21-yarder in the first quarter against the Bengals in the Wild Card round. Just one of Reed's 10 kickoffs has gone for a touchback, but opponents are averaging just 19.9 yards per return. Reed (24-29 FG) missed just three kicks of shorter than 50 yards during the regular season, but has not made a field goal of longer than 44 yards this year. Punter Chris Gardocki is averaging 43.6 yards on six playoff punts, and has placed four kicks inside the 20-yard line. Ike Taylor (23.0 avg.) and Ricardo Colclough (20.0) have been handling kickoff returns, but neither has broken a return of notable length. Randle El (10.1 avg.) leads the NFL in punt return average during the 2005 playoffs.

The Denver kicking game was among the most reliable in the league all season, and last week continued that trend for Shanahan's squad. Kicker Jason Elam made both of his field goal tries, connecting on a 50-yarder in the second quarter and a 32-yarder in the third. Elam was 24-of-32 on field goals during the regular season. Punter Todd Sauerbrun also held his own, with his six punts going for a 45.7-yard average and three of those kicks landing inside the 20-yard line. Sauerbrun's 69.2 average on kickoffs leads NFL kickers during the playoffs. Charlie Adams was the Broncos' primary punt and kickoff returner last week, with his longest attempt of the day coming in the form of a 29-yard kickoff return.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Winning three straight road games in the National Football League is an extraordinarily difficult endeavor, and beating three high-quality teams to do so is next to impossible (as playoff history has shown). It is only realistic to expect that at some point, the Steelers are going to hit the wall and make enough critical mistakes to cost them a game in a hostile environment. What's more, Pittsburgh will not be taking on the finesse-based attacks of the Bengals or Colts this week, but will be up against a Denver team that will match its physicality blow-for-blow for 60 minutes. The Steelers will hang around in this one into the fourth quarter, but don't be surprised when their Cinderella run finally runs out of steam in the endgame.

Predicted Outcome: Broncos 20, Steelers 14

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:38 AM

Conference Championships Historical Trends for the last 10 years

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In the AFC conference championships from 2004 way back to 1995, there was

- 6 Faves and 4 Dogs (60%, 40%)
- 5 Overs and 5 Unders (50%, 50%)
- 5 Home and 5 Away (50%, 50%)
- 4 Home Faves, 1 Home Dog, 2 Away Faves, and 3 Away Dogs (40%, 10%, 20%, 30% respectively)

In the NFC conference championships from 2004 way back to 1995, there was

- 4 Faves and 6 Dogs (40%, 60%)
- 4 Overs and 6 Unders (40%, 60%)
- 6 Home and 4 Away (60%, 40%)
- 3 Home Faves, 3 Home Dog, 1 Away Faves, and 3 Away Dogs (30%, 30%, 10%, 30% respectively)

Thus consolidating the numbers for both AFC and NFC gives us:

- 10 Faves and 10 Dogs (50%, 50%)
- 9 Overs and 11 Unders (45%, 55%)
- 11 Home and 9 Away (55%, 45%)
- 7 Home Faves, 4 Home Dog, 3 Away Faves, and 6 Away Dogs (35%, 20%, 15%, 30% respectively)

Note that we can only have an Home Fave or Away Dog this week thus constituting 65% of the above sample, which equates to a 53.8% Home Fave or 46.2% Away Dog looking at those 13 games only.

Furthermore, breaking the spreads and totals further, we find that

- Spreads from 0-3 yields 3 Faves and 1 Dog
- Spreads from 4-10 yields 6 Faves and 5 Dogs
- Spreads over 10 yields 1 Fave and 4 Dogs

- Totals under 40 yields 3 Overs and 4 Unders
- Totals over 40 yields 6 Overs and 7 Unders

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:44 AM

Hot Teams
-- Minnesota covered three of last four as home favorite
-- Denver won last four games, covered eight of last 10; they're 0-2 vs Spurs, losing 102-91/98-88. Spurs won four games in row, but are 2-6 vs spread in last eight, and had big win vs Miami Friday night.
-- Wizards won, covered five of their last six games.
-- Warriors won last two games by 16,20 points; but in last eight road games, they're 2-6 vs spread.
-- Pistons won last six games (5-1 vs spread).
-- Suns won eleven of their last fourteen games; on Dec 20, they beat Sonics 112-83 in desert.
-- Dallas won, covered their last four games. Portland is also 4-0 in their last four games.
-- Toronto is 14-2 vs spread in their last sixteen games.

Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost last three road games by 20,26,28 points; they beat T'Wolves 90-89 in OT Dec 12.
-- Grizzlies lost last four games, scoring 81.8 ppg.
-- Clippers are 6-11 in their last seventeen games.
-- Tough week so far for Heat, losing to Lakers, Spurs; they beat Kings 98-87 at Arco, during Van Gundy era. Kings are 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games- they had 3-game win streak snapped in OT yesterday.
-- Rockets lost seven of last eight games; they're decent when McGrady plays- he had big game Friday.
-- Seattle lost four in row, seven of last eight games.
-- Lakers lost last two games, are 2-4 vs spread last six.

Totals
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven Minnesota home games.
-- Eight of last 10 Spur games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Memphis games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Golden State games stayed under.
-- Nine of last 12 Miami games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Detroit games stayed under total.
--
-- Last three Portland home games stayed under.
-- Over is 10-2-1 in last 13 Toronto games.

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 11:45 AM

Hot Teams
-- Devils won last nine games, allowing 16 goals; they've split four games vs Rangers (3-2/1-4/2-3/3-1). Rangers won five of last seven games, three in row at home.
-- Minnesota is 8-5 in its last 13 games; they won 4-1 Friday vs Chicago, evening season series 1-1.

Cold Teams
-- Chicago lost fourteen of its last seventeen games.

Totals
-- Nine of last 13 Ranger games went over the total.
-- Last five Black-hawks games stayed under the total.

**Spark** · 01-22-2006, 02:55 PM

Sunday's List of 13: College basketball random thoughts.....
13) Odd story out of Texas Tech, where Red Raiders offered a kid scholarship after seeing him play AAU ball last summer. After going see the kid play for his high school this winter, it became evident he wasn't a Big 12-level player, so they freed the kid from his letter-of-intent, in effect, firing him.

12) This doesn't happen much; in long run, it is best thing for the kid, since he can go somewhere else without having to transfer and lose a year sitting around, but it is embarrassing for everyone, including the Tech coaching staff.

11) Would like to be fly on wall in meeting where they finally decided to fire the kid. Wonder who recommended him in the first place? For everyone's sake, hope it was coach Knight, and not an assistant who coudl also get a pink slip.

10) You haven't been properly entertained until you've tried to listen to the student broadcast of a D-III hoop game on the Internet. Trust me on this. Like decoding Morse Code.

9) Give John Thompson III all the credit for his upset of Duke Saturday; the challenging schedule he has given his Hoyas made them tough enough to withstand Duke runs. Unlike his father, Thompson isn't afraid of losing a game in December, if it helps win games from January-March.

8) Georgetown's win will get the Big East an extra team in the NCAA's; it will push league's power rating high enough so the last Big East bubble team will survive March 12.

7) Chris Lofton was huge for Tennessee in their upset of the Gators; Vols were on fumes, CJ Watson had fouled out, and Florida had ball on fast break, when Lofton stole pass, fed teammate for easy layup and the win. Entertaining game.

6) Don't like it when home teams wear gold uniforms (Arizona State, Minnesota, Lakers). Wear white at home. Looks better.

5) Skip Prosser wasn't real happy with refs after his 92-82 loss at NC State; Wolfpack shot 37-43 from line, Deacons, who led 45-40 at half, were just 19-25.

4) Skip would be lot happier if he had a true point guard.

3) Some Big East coaches are saying West Virginia is a Final Four-caliber team. It'll be interesting to follow how many Big East teams get in (it'll be a lot) and then, how much of what we know about them is media hype, as opposed to reality.

2) Handicapping school: when Purdue gets 20 from Indiana, a huge rivalry game, take the 20. Boilers played their hearts out, lost 62-49, but it was close game for 35:00.

1) Handicapping school 1A: Stanford, Arizona State both lost Thursday, Cardinal in OT, Sun Devils by 30 in tank job effort vs Cal. In tight game down stretch, which team do you think had the mental toughess to win Saturday? Stanford, 70-64.

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