Spears Thurs Hoopla

[Spearit]

Well - I have come to realize that if I start a thread out feeling emotional- Do not play my plays.

I have mentioned before how many of us bet under these circumstances and well- just realize it in time and ask yourself- am I emotional today. If yes- you may as well fade the plays - cuz you are not going to win.

Being a Win Doctor (Physician to 2 Olympics) means understanding the sports psycholgy of being aware of your emotions prior to an event- playing from anger:angryfire , depression, frustration, grief, etc. weakens the body of intuition, energy, stamina, perception, etc which in this case diminishes your bankroll in a hurry.

That is why chasing rarely works out - cuz you end up chasing again the next night when you are down. So remember this and you can also remind me if you see it in my threads as well. I'll pull up quickly.

Being in that state last night produced a tough loss on the Zips who were zapped in the second half after holding a 16 point lead and going to OT where they won by 7- not enough. tried to play a small parlay later- and again zapped- so off to bed I went- tail tucked between my legs and was fortunate however, to get laid.

Today's winner (If I may be so bold)
Ga State +7.5 First Half against Drexel.

This game is about size and the taller Drexel team may well prevail in the second half but not the first half. I made this mistake by not playing first half Akron last night (almost changed it)- and have made the double on this play to get it back. Ga St has a healthy 3 point shot game and should be up for this game with Drexel. All formulas point to an advantage by Ga. St

--DREXEL is 4-11 against the 1rst half line (-8.1 Units) versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was DREXEL 27.1, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 1*)
--DREXEL is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) after scoring 60 points or less this season.
The average score was DREXEL 25.2, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--DREXEL is 1-7 against the 1rst half line (-6.7 Units) after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games this season.
The average score was DREXEL 24.4, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 1*)
--DREXEL is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DREXEL 26.1, OPPONENT 31.2 - (Rating = 1*)
--DREXEL is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season.
The average score was DREXEL 23.5, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--DREXEL is 1-7 against the 1rst half line (-6.7 Units) after playing a game as an underdog this season.
The average score was DREXEL 26.3, OPPONENT 30.6 - (Rating = 1*)
--DREXEL is 1-7 against the 1rst half line (-6.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.
The average score was DREXEL 24.6, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--DREXEL is 4-11 against the 1rst half line (-8.1 Units) versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was DREXEL 27.1, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 1*)

[griffey_mojo]

GL tonight Spearit!

[Spearit]

Best bet # 2 Loyola Md +8.5 First Half

LOYOLA-MD is 40-21 against the 1rst half line (+16.9 Units) as an underdog of 6 or more points vs. the first half line since 1997.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 29.5, OPPONENT 36.9 - (Rating = 1*)
LOYOLA-MD is 36-20 against the 1rst half line (+14.0 Units) versus the first half line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 31.2, OPPONENT 35.6 - (Rating = 1*)
LOYOLA-MD is 28-15 against the 1rst half line (+11.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 30.2, OPPONENT 35.9 - (Rating = 0*)
LOYOLA-MD is 36-20 against the 1rst half line (+14.0 Units) versus the first half line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 31.2, OPPONENT 35.6 - (Rating = 1*)
LOYOLA-MD is 35-18 against the 1rst half line (+15.2 Units) as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 31.1, OPPONENT 35.8 - (Rating = 1*)
LOYOLA-MD is 21-9 against the 1rst half line (+11.1 Units) as a road underdog or pick vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 32.3, OPPONENT 37.4 - (Rating = 1*)
LOYOLA-MD is 32-13 against the 1rst half line (+17.7 Units) as a road underdog of 6 or more points vs. the first half line since 1997.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 30.5, OPPONENT 37.9 - (Rating = 2*)
LOYOLA-MD is 21-9 against the 1rst half line (+11.1 Units) versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 32.3, OPPONENT 37.4 - (Rating = 1*)
LOYOLA-MD is 21-9 against the 1rst half line (+11.1 Units) versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 32.3, OPPONENT 37.4 - (Rating = 1*)
LOYOLA-MD is 28-16 against the 1rst half line (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 31.4, OPPONENT 35.3 - (Rating = 0*)
LOYOLA-MD is 16-6 against the 1rst half line (+9.4 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 32.1, OPPONENT 34.0 - (Rating = 1*)
LOYOLA-MD is 14-5 against the 1rst half line (+8.5 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 30.9, OPPONENT 38.0 - (Rating = 0*)
LOYOLA-MD is 16-6 against the 1rst half line (+9.4 Units) in road games off a road loss since 1997.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 31.1, OPPONENT 35.5 - (Rating = 0*)
LOYOLA-MD is 33-19 against the 1rst half line (+12.1 Units) after playing a game as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 31.1, OPPONENT 35.9 - (Rating = 0*)
LOYOLA-MD is 31-15 against the 1rst half line (+14.5 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 31.3, OPPONENT 35.7 - (Rating = 1*)
IONA is 5-17 against the 1rst half line (-13.7 Units) as a favorite of 6 or more points vs. the first half line since 1997.
The average score was IONA 37.0, OPPONENT 32.3 - (Rating = 1*)
IONA is 0-9 against the 1rst half line (-9.9 Units) in home games off a home win against a conference rival since 1997.
The average score was IONA 39.1, OPPONENT 38.6 - (Rating = 3*)
IONA is 5-15 against the 1rst half line (-11.5 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
The average score was IONA 37.5, OPPONENT 35.7 - (Rating = 0*)
IONA is 2-11 against the 1rst half line (-10.1 Units) in home games off a home win since 1997.
The average score was IONA 38.7, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 1*)
IONA is 20-35 against the 1rst half line (-18.5 Units) after a combined score of 155 points or more since 1997.
The average score was IONA 33.6, OPPONENT 33.0 - (Rating = 0*)
IONA is 5-23 against the 1rst half line (-20.3 Units) in home games after playing a game as favorite since 1997.
The average score was IONA 35.5, OPPONENT 34.6 - (Rating = 3*)
IONA is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IONA 35.7, OPPONENT 33.6 - (Rating = 1*)
IONA is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) in home games after playing a home game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IONA 34.9, OPPONENT 33.3 - (Rating = 3*)
IONA is 8-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.1 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
The average score was IONA 37.1, OPPONENT 35.2 - (Rating = 1*)
IONA is 11-24 against the 1rst half line (-15.4 Units) as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IONA 34.0, OPPONENT 32.8 - (Rating = 1*)
IONA is 4-15 against the 1rst half line (-12.5 Units) as a home favorite of 6 or more points vs. the first half line since 1997.
The average score was IONA 37.6, OPPONENT 33.3 - (Rating = 1*)

[Spearit]

Okay Spear - You showed us the crummy on Drexel in the first half but what about Ga. State.


--Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (GEORGIA ST) - off a home win against opponent off a close road loss by 3 points or less.
(36-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +26.1 units. Rating = 4*)

--Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (GEORGIA ST) - off a home win against opponent off a close road loss by 3 points or less.
(37-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +26 units. Rating = 3*)

--Play On - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (GEORGIA ST) - in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=55 shots/game), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(40-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +22.4 units. Rating = 2*)

--Play On - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (GEORGIA ST) - off a home win against opponent off a close road loss by 3 points or less.
(33-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)

--Play On - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (GEORGIA ST) - in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=55 shots/game), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(43-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 2*)

--Play On - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (GEORGIA ST) - off a home win against opponent off a close road loss by 3 points or less.
(34-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)

[RJeremy]

gl buddy!

[mark30]

GL Spear!

[Spearit]

Tip: Spear- I would like to follow you but well - trends don't seem to be the most winnin'est way in capping.

I understand but they are an indicator only of the play for me- - I also would look at a number of other sources for a play.
I have also lost on trendywork- lets say- on a total number- a total Under is represented in the trend but the total on the averages between the team and opponents is Over the listed vegas line- Air Force Utah today is a good example. 112 is open listed. Now at 116.
In 250 simulated games, 226 games went over the total, while 22 games went under the total.

Look at these numbers


UTAH is 15-6 UNDER (+8.4 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 63.8, OPPONENT 58.8 - (Rating = 1*)
UTAH is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 61.4, OPPONENT 55.7 - (Rating = 1*)
UTAH is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 61.5, OPPONENT 60.2 - (Rating = 2*)
UTAH is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 59.4, OPPONENT 61.8 - (Rating = 1*)
UTAH is 28-14 UNDER (+12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 63.1, OPPONENT 60.2 - (Rating = 1*)
UTAH is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 56.2, OPPONENT 61.8 - (Rating = 2*)

Edge against the total=Over The gravy was taken out of the edge- can you see it.

I play what is not the trend but what numbers may average out to a play- Vegas has made the adjustment. I then want to check each game one by one and see the reality of the season on both teams.

[lowrider66]

gl today spear!

[ChuckLazar]

Spearit I like the way you think things out but I think that sometimes you read into stats too much....It's all about Teams shooting percentages and defensive percentages more than it is about trends and stats...I think revenge and home court plays the biggest factor in most games....I do the same as you many times and get caught up in it..
.But if you look at 2 games last night for example(Pitt and Duke)...Both dogs were reved up for a revenge win and played their hearts out the first half(dog covered the spread), only to lose the game in the second half (fav covered the spread) because of the better shooting team....

Good luck tonight and can see both of your plays winning..

[Spark]

Good Luck Buddy

[Dkngstn9]

Pinnacle has loy. md. +6 now 1st half. anywhere still around 8

[Dkngstn9]

Pinnacle has loy. md. +6 now 1st half. anywhere still around 8

Now i have +5 1/2 at another site would have been a great middle.

[linemover]

gl buddy

[Doctor Vegas]

GL2U Spearit!

[scla99]

Thanks for the info and GL. I had one question were u using Utah as just as an example or is it a play?