Driving me nuts!! HELP??

[capperjohn1]

I am trying to find the "true" odds for someone hitting 21 in a row. To me it wouldn't make a difference if all in one night or over 21 days as far as "true" odds, even though I would think it would be easier for it to be done over 21 days (more choices). At first I thought of 2 to the 21st power which is a pinch under 2.1 million to one. But my math isn't right I think. Any number crunchers with help? Thanks and good luck all...

[gr8whtnorth]

I took Statistics in college over 20 years ago. There are many probability formulas. Just can't remember any that would fit. But it's a lot more involved than you think. Sorry not any help! Maybe try a chat site full of Math Geeks?

[weazel079]

I am trying to find the "true" odds for someone hitting 21 in a row. To me it wouldn't make a difference if all in one night or over 21 days as far as "true" odds, even though I would think it would be easier for it to be done over 21 days (more choices). At first I thought of 2 to the 21st power which is a pinch under 2.1 million to one. But my math isn't right I think. Any number crunchers with help? Thanks and good luck all...

I think your right. 2,097,152 to 1

[Spearit]

I have a question?
I have taken Stats over 30 years ago but I believe you are leaving something out. Unlike flipping a coin which has two possible consequences- hitting an ATS play has three consequences or outcomes. A tie is an outcome and blows the probability formula above to less than accurate.
x) 3 outcomes per play
y) 21 correct plays
This is a 1/3 chance of hitting the play. Since there is 63 (21x 3) separate outcomes of 21 plays, it therefore seems logical to place this in the formula. using your formula 3 to the 21st power.

Now, I understand that we could still look at a loss or a win scenario since ties are considered losses. In that case, forget my comments.

[CheechB03]

I have a question?
I have taken Stats over 30 years ago but I believe you are leaving something out. Unlike flipping a coin which has two possible consequences- hitting an ATS play has three consequences or outcomes. A tie is an outcome and blows the probability formula above to less than accurate.
x) 3 outcomes per play
y) 21 correct plays
This is a 1/3 chance of hitting the play. Since there is 63 (21x 3) separate outcomes of 21 plays, it therefore seems logical to place this in the formula. using your formula 3 to the 21st power.

Now, I understand that we could still look at a loss or a win scenario since ties are considered losses. In that case, forget my comments.

In sports betting a push is considered a NO PLAY. Therefore, the correct calculation is 2 to the 21st.

[capperjohn1]

Assuming the push as a no bet, I am still questioning whether it's 2 to the 21st power. Because the "true" odds for a parley are 3:1, not 4:1. Team a vs Team B:outcomes
Team A (W) Team B (W)
Team A (W) Team B (L)
Team A (L) Team B (W)
Team A (L) Team B (L)

Therefore 4 outcomes, 3 make a loss, 1 a winner. 3:1 "true" odds. That is not 2 to the 2nd power.(4)