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I went 2-1 yesterday, with the TB Under covering by a mile, even with two GIFT TDs for Washington in the first few minutes (five yards total offense for Wash to get those two tds). NE won big, as I predicted in my post here.
Losing the TB bet was really painful, as it was the best pick of the three, even though it lost. Washington's run of flukey wins never seems to stop. I have no doubt if they played that EXACT game in those EXACT circumstances 10 times, that TB would win 8 or 9. Wash got lucky AGAIN.
A couple of good games today.
Carolina at Giants
Again, I ignore stats from early in the season, and from recent meaningless games, looking at stats from recent games in which both teams were trying their utmost to win.
Using my own formula for determining lines, I make NY -5.5., based on both team's recent perfomance. BUT!!! There is a key element in this game that make NY a MUCH stronger pick than they'd be if they only had 3 points of expected line value.
Carolina amassed their stats against teams with combined records of 44-52, while NY got theirs against teams with combeined records of 51-35. Moreover, Carolina LOST, every time they stepped up and played a good team...and without being able to run up their stats vs Atlanta they'd be a much bigger underdog using my formula.
The Giants Yards Per Rush figure is slightly skewed by Barber's 95 yd run, which I consider a "fluke", and have to take out of the average (again, like turnovers, you can't count on things like 95 yard runs from scrimage to re-occur).....but even so, NY are a SOLID favorite of at LEAST 7 points using my Post-Season formula. My turnover system also points to NY winning so I am making a substantial bet on NY. I'd rank this play a bit below TB yesterday, but WELL worth playing hard. Again, TB was a great call, but in football, where a fumble/runback can completely skew a result, you just lose games like that sometimes.
But your money is safe on NY today, who should handle Carolina fairly easily.
Pitt at Cincy
This is a scary one. My formula makes Cincy a slight favorite of 3 points, which gives you good value by betting Cincy. But I'm afraid of Pitt's strength of opposition, which vastly exceeds Cincy's over the last 6 games. My turnover formula points towards Pitt also, which would drag my expected line down to about a pick. That doesn't mean that Cincy won't win by 21 points, of course, but the stats make this an even game using my formula.
What we look for in games with non-situational elements (by that I mean games where there is no "emotional" factor...e.g., looking forward to next week's MNF game......'not interested in the game because the playoff spot is already won, etc) are pure stats...and strength of opposition. And we live and die with them....usually live.
So if I'm correct, and the proper line for this game is pk, getting 3 pts on Cincy is good value...but I'm not as confident in Cincy as I am in NY, so I'm betting it, but not as hard. I do think Pitt is overated by the public, and perhaps Cincy CAN blow them away. Pitt won't be blowing Cincy away, of that I'm fairly sure.
So a decent bet on Cincy, and a substantial bet on NY.
Losing the TB bet was really painful, as it was the best pick of the three, even though it lost. Washington's run of flukey wins never seems to stop. I have no doubt if they played that EXACT game in those EXACT circumstances 10 times, that TB would win 8 or 9. Wash got lucky AGAIN.
A couple of good games today.
Carolina at Giants
Again, I ignore stats from early in the season, and from recent meaningless games, looking at stats from recent games in which both teams were trying their utmost to win.
Using my own formula for determining lines, I make NY -5.5., based on both team's recent perfomance. BUT!!! There is a key element in this game that make NY a MUCH stronger pick than they'd be if they only had 3 points of expected line value.
Carolina amassed their stats against teams with combined records of 44-52, while NY got theirs against teams with combeined records of 51-35. Moreover, Carolina LOST, every time they stepped up and played a good team...and without being able to run up their stats vs Atlanta they'd be a much bigger underdog using my formula.
The Giants Yards Per Rush figure is slightly skewed by Barber's 95 yd run, which I consider a "fluke", and have to take out of the average (again, like turnovers, you can't count on things like 95 yard runs from scrimage to re-occur).....but even so, NY are a SOLID favorite of at LEAST 7 points using my Post-Season formula. My turnover system also points to NY winning so I am making a substantial bet on NY. I'd rank this play a bit below TB yesterday, but WELL worth playing hard. Again, TB was a great call, but in football, where a fumble/runback can completely skew a result, you just lose games like that sometimes.
But your money is safe on NY today, who should handle Carolina fairly easily.
Pitt at Cincy
This is a scary one. My formula makes Cincy a slight favorite of 3 points, which gives you good value by betting Cincy. But I'm afraid of Pitt's strength of opposition, which vastly exceeds Cincy's over the last 6 games. My turnover formula points towards Pitt also, which would drag my expected line down to about a pick. That doesn't mean that Cincy won't win by 21 points, of course, but the stats make this an even game using my formula.
What we look for in games with non-situational elements (by that I mean games where there is no "emotional" factor...e.g., looking forward to next week's MNF game......'not interested in the game because the playoff spot is already won, etc) are pure stats...and strength of opposition. And we live and die with them....usually live.
So if I'm correct, and the proper line for this game is pk, getting 3 pts on Cincy is good value...but I'm not as confident in Cincy as I am in NY, so I'm betting it, but not as hard. I do think Pitt is overated by the public, and perhaps Cincy CAN blow them away. Pitt won't be blowing Cincy away, of that I'm fairly sure.
So a decent bet on Cincy, and a substantial bet on NY.
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