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A lot of people make the mistake of looking at the wrong stats when trying to decide if a particular team has a chance in the playoffs. For example, if you went to NFL.com, or similar sites for your stats to make your decision, you'd be getting stats for the whole *year*, and in many case these stats are defective. Why? Things change. Imagine handicapping Minnesota in week 13, say, but using seasonal stats for them to make your line. For many teams, the team currently on the field is *significantly* different in performance to the team that played in weeks 1-5, so why water down your stats with obsolute data?
For playoff games I use stats only from the last six *meaningful* games played by a team (throwing out games in which the team had nothing to play for...you'd be an idiot to leave stats in your equation that came from games played by backups...or unmotivated starters).
When I look at todays games in *that* way.....a couple of things become VERY apparent.
1) Washington has had its day...and will be going home for the season.
Wash is lucky to be here. We KNOW how lucky they were last week at Philly, but in fact they've been on a miracle run lately that far exceeds their actual ability. Even in that miracle run they've only managed *2* more total first downs than their opponents. Worse, their control of the line of scrimmage, as demonstrated by net rushing yards, has been horrific....their opponents have run up MUCH better net running stats then have Wash. Moreover, Wash was the benificiary of a net*14* turnovers in six games...which is the ONLY reason they did as well as they did....and turnovers can NOT be counted on to repeat...and without them, Wash wouldn't even be here. Not even close.
Tampa are no worldbeaters, perhaps, having given up a couple more 1st downs than they got over the last 6 games themselves. But they have a BIG advantage on the line, on both sides of the ball....getting 1/2 yard per carry more than Wash, and giving up a SENSATIONAL 1.3 YPC less than Wash. That's a net 1.9 yards per carry in favor of TB, as big a spread as you're likely to see in a playoff game. And while Tampa themselves has benefited from turnovers, they've only been +5 over the last 6 games, making their wins somewhat less "flukey".
Wash has played five *life or death* games in a row, the last three were ID games (more emotional). The last game was the HUGE emotional (and fucking lucky) win over Philly, in which they were net *5* turnovers...and still barely won.
But I am almost certain that Washinton's tank is now empty, they have been under life or death stress for 5 weeks, had some flukey wins....and they aren't as good a team as TB anyway. And TB are at home, where they have now been for three comfortable weeks. And Wash is amazed just to be here...and will consider it a victory to have MADE the playoffs.
Much as it pains me to see my Skins exit the playoffs, barring yet MORE flukey luck, Tampa, home and emotionally rested should take them fairly easily.
I also LOVE the under on this game. Brunell has been doing it with smoke and mirrors...and like turnovers, you can't count on this to happen again in any given game. Portis is vastly overated, in my opinion. I can see Tampa holding Wash to 7-10 points. And Tampa aren't going to score 30 points, that's almost for sure. 17-7.....20-10. That should be the final score.
Jacksonville at NE
Looking at the stats for the last six games (leaving out last week's Miami game, which doesn't count), I would make NE a 12 point favourite. A huge statistical edge for NE. But it goes deeper than that. While NE got their stats against a fairly modest group of opponents, whose cumulative w/l records net out at 42-54, Jax got their stats against teams that have net records of 35-61. Even against THAT sorry bunch of teams they are still a 12 point underdog statistically (according to my methodology) to NE, which could move my line up to 14 or so after considering strength of opposition. The line is down to NE-7.5, so I'll wait to see if by some miracle it goes to 7. If it goes the wrong way to 8, no harm done, so it's worth the gamble of waiting. NE should win big.
For playoff games I use stats only from the last six *meaningful* games played by a team (throwing out games in which the team had nothing to play for...you'd be an idiot to leave stats in your equation that came from games played by backups...or unmotivated starters).
When I look at todays games in *that* way.....a couple of things become VERY apparent.
1) Washington has had its day...and will be going home for the season.
Wash is lucky to be here. We KNOW how lucky they were last week at Philly, but in fact they've been on a miracle run lately that far exceeds their actual ability. Even in that miracle run they've only managed *2* more total first downs than their opponents. Worse, their control of the line of scrimmage, as demonstrated by net rushing yards, has been horrific....their opponents have run up MUCH better net running stats then have Wash. Moreover, Wash was the benificiary of a net*14* turnovers in six games...which is the ONLY reason they did as well as they did....and turnovers can NOT be counted on to repeat...and without them, Wash wouldn't even be here. Not even close.
Tampa are no worldbeaters, perhaps, having given up a couple more 1st downs than they got over the last 6 games themselves. But they have a BIG advantage on the line, on both sides of the ball....getting 1/2 yard per carry more than Wash, and giving up a SENSATIONAL 1.3 YPC less than Wash. That's a net 1.9 yards per carry in favor of TB, as big a spread as you're likely to see in a playoff game. And while Tampa themselves has benefited from turnovers, they've only been +5 over the last 6 games, making their wins somewhat less "flukey".
Wash has played five *life or death* games in a row, the last three were ID games (more emotional). The last game was the HUGE emotional (and fucking lucky) win over Philly, in which they were net *5* turnovers...and still barely won.
But I am almost certain that Washinton's tank is now empty, they have been under life or death stress for 5 weeks, had some flukey wins....and they aren't as good a team as TB anyway. And TB are at home, where they have now been for three comfortable weeks. And Wash is amazed just to be here...and will consider it a victory to have MADE the playoffs.
Much as it pains me to see my Skins exit the playoffs, barring yet MORE flukey luck, Tampa, home and emotionally rested should take them fairly easily.
I also LOVE the under on this game. Brunell has been doing it with smoke and mirrors...and like turnovers, you can't count on this to happen again in any given game. Portis is vastly overated, in my opinion. I can see Tampa holding Wash to 7-10 points. And Tampa aren't going to score 30 points, that's almost for sure. 17-7.....20-10. That should be the final score.
Jacksonville at NE
Looking at the stats for the last six games (leaving out last week's Miami game, which doesn't count), I would make NE a 12 point favourite. A huge statistical edge for NE. But it goes deeper than that. While NE got their stats against a fairly modest group of opponents, whose cumulative w/l records net out at 42-54, Jax got their stats against teams that have net records of 35-61. Even against THAT sorry bunch of teams they are still a 12 point underdog statistically (according to my methodology) to NE, which could move my line up to 14 or so after considering strength of opposition. The line is down to NE-7.5, so I'll wait to see if by some miracle it goes to 7. If it goes the wrong way to 8, no harm done, so it's worth the gamble of waiting. NE should win big.
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