Tweet
Much is being made of USC's rout of Oklahoma last year, and they point to that as a reason that the Trojans roll again. The problem with that line of thinking is that Oklahoma was outplaying USC for awhile, and then their mental breakdowns led to a rash of USC points. Once the Sooners fell behind, Peterson became a non-factor, and White was immobile and playing badly. That USC defense was leaps and bounds ahead of this defense.
The other point USC backers consistently make is that Pete Carroll will outcoach Mack Brown. Maybe so, but Brown has had the right attitude and confidence ever since beating Ohio St. and Oklahoma. Here is a look at how I think both teams will do when they have the ball:
When Texas has the ball:
Much has been made of Vince Young's inability to throw the ball successfully. While I try to avoid race-related comments in all situations, I think the main reason he is treated this way is because he is black. His passing efficiency is second to none, and he will have receivers running free against the mediocre USC secondary. Meanwhile, the Trojans are not used to facing mobile quarterbacks, and there is no way to simulate someone with the weapons of Young. The Longhorns will be able to run the ball all day with Young and their stable of backs, and I believe they will only stop themselves.
When USC has the ball:
Everyone knows USC is going to move the ball, as they do against everyone. But, I don't think they will light up the scoreboard, and the main reason is Gene Chizik, who is the best coordinator in football. He faced the Trojans twice when he was at Auburn, and held them to 47 total points. Now, with markedly better athletes, he gets another chance. His defense is not going to have to shutout the Trojans, but just hold them below 40. I think the Horns will do this easily against a USC offense that has feasted on PAC-10 opposition, and - similar to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl - has not faced a defense with anywhere near the speed they will see tonight.
Special teams also favor Texas except in regard to returns. The Longhorns can cover kicks very well, and I would be surprised to see SC break a big return. Punt returns shouldn't be much of a factor, as Texas should only punt a couple times, and they cover them well anyways.
I am playing Texas +7 -105 for 5 units, and Texas ML +220 for 2 units.
The other point USC backers consistently make is that Pete Carroll will outcoach Mack Brown. Maybe so, but Brown has had the right attitude and confidence ever since beating Ohio St. and Oklahoma. Here is a look at how I think both teams will do when they have the ball:
When Texas has the ball:
Much has been made of Vince Young's inability to throw the ball successfully. While I try to avoid race-related comments in all situations, I think the main reason he is treated this way is because he is black. His passing efficiency is second to none, and he will have receivers running free against the mediocre USC secondary. Meanwhile, the Trojans are not used to facing mobile quarterbacks, and there is no way to simulate someone with the weapons of Young. The Longhorns will be able to run the ball all day with Young and their stable of backs, and I believe they will only stop themselves.
When USC has the ball:
Everyone knows USC is going to move the ball, as they do against everyone. But, I don't think they will light up the scoreboard, and the main reason is Gene Chizik, who is the best coordinator in football. He faced the Trojans twice when he was at Auburn, and held them to 47 total points. Now, with markedly better athletes, he gets another chance. His defense is not going to have to shutout the Trojans, but just hold them below 40. I think the Horns will do this easily against a USC offense that has feasted on PAC-10 opposition, and - similar to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl - has not faced a defense with anywhere near the speed they will see tonight.
Special teams also favor Texas except in regard to returns. The Longhorns can cover kicks very well, and I would be surprised to see SC break a big return. Punt returns shouldn't be much of a factor, as Texas should only punt a couple times, and they cover them well anyways.
I am playing Texas +7 -105 for 5 units, and Texas ML +220 for 2 units.
Comment