Tweet
BOOOOM YET ANOTHER 3* UNIT BOMB HITTING AS I CONTINUE MY TOTAL DOMINATION WINNING ALMOST EVERY TOP SELECTION I RELEASE IN THESE BOWL GAMES THIS SEASON! LETS HOPE WE CAN CONTINUE THIS MOMENTUM FOR THE FINAL GAME OF THE SEASON! FOR THOSE OF YOU KEEPING TRACK THATS NOW 6 CONSENCUTIVE WINNING DAYS!
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
2* USC -7
-----------------------------------------------
TEXAS (12 - 0) vs. USC (12 - 0)
Week 15 Wednesday, 1/4/2006 8:00 PM
Rose Bowl (BCS Championship) - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
vs 
History
USC has a remarkable record in bowl games. The Trojans have the nation’s third highest bowl winning percentage (.651) among the 67 schools that have made at least 10 bowl appearances and USC is just 1 win behind Alabama for most bowl victories, 29 to 28. This game will mark USC's 43rd overall bowl appearances which ranks fourth behind only Alabama (52), Tennessee (45) and Texas (44). USC once won 9 consecutive bowl games (the 1923-30-32-33-39-40-44-45 Rose Bowls and 1924 Christmas Festival); only Florida State has won more in a row (11). USC’s overall post-season record is 28-15. Troy has also appeared in an unprecedented 29 Rose Bowls, where it has a 21-8 mark, winning 8 of it last 10 Rose bowl games. That’s not only the most Rose Bowl wins of any team, but also the most wins by a school in a single bowl. USC has also appeared in 11 other bowls, the Christmas Festival, Liberty Bowl, Bluebonnet Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Aloha Bowl, Florida Citrus Bowl, Sun (John Hancock) Bowl (twice), Freedom Bowl (twice), Cotton Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl and Orange Bowl (twice). Meanwhile, with its invitation to the Rose Bowl, Texas is headed to its eighth straight bowl game and 44th overall bowl appearance. Texas has an all time postseason record of 21-21-2. That’s the third most bowl appearances and tied for eighth most bowl wins among all schools. The Longhorns have won 3 of their past 4 bowls, including a last-second 38-37 win over Michigan in the 2005 Rose Bowl. Texas has been in the Cotton Bowl 22 times and has also appeared in the Sugar, Orange, Bluebonnet, Gator, Sun, Freedom, Fiesta and Holiday Bowls besides the Rose Bowl.
Texas (12-0, 8-0 Big 12 Champions)
Head Coach: Mack Brown (Florida State, 1974)
Career Record: 168-93-1 (22nd year)
Record at Texas: 82-19 (8th year)
USC (12-0, 8-0 Pacific 10 Champions)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (Pacific, 1973)
Career Record: 54-9 (5th year)
Record at USC: 54-9 (5th year)
Texas Leaders:
Rushing: Vince Young (12 G, 136-850 yards, 9 TD)
Passing: Vince Young (12 G, 285-182-10-2,769 yards, 26 TD)
Receiving: David Thomas (12 G, 40-525 yards, 5 TD)
USC Leaders:
Rushing: Reggie Bush (12 G, 187-1,693 yards, 15 TD)
Passing: Matt Leinart (12 G, 391-254-7-3,450 yards, 27 TD)
Receiving: Dwayne Jarrett (12 G, 81-1,153 yards, 15 TD)
TEXAS:
As if the two-time defending national champions need any bulletin-board material, Texas safety Michael Huff proclaimed his team to have the best offense in the country. "USC has probably the second-best offense, compared to our offense, in the nation," Huff said. "It will be a great matchup for us. We just have to line up and play Texas defense, and we'll be fine." USC actually led the nation in total offense with 580.3 yards per game and Texas was third. The Longhorns did lead the country in scoring offense at 50.9 points per game while USC is averaging 50. Texas QB Vince Young, who finished second to USC's Reggie Bush in the Heisman Trophy race, promised before the award ceremony that if he didn't win the award, it would motivate him all the more in the Rose Bowl "to show the world that they made a wrong decision." When asked a few days later whether he would guarantee victory over the Trojans, in Joe Namath fashion, Young said, "Right now, yeah. I'm very confident about it. They come in the game off a high winning streak, and everybody's 'blowing them up,' you know, and they think we're the underdogs and we're not going to come to play. I know that we are."
USC:
USC, which has been AP’s No. 1-ranked team for a national-record 33 consecutive polls, brings in a number of impressive winning streaks: a Pac-10-record 34 overall games, 16 non-conference games and an NCAA record 16 games against AP Top 25 teams (including 7 in a row over AP Top 7 squads).
COACHING NOTES:
Texas’ eighth-year head coach is 82-19 (54-10 Big 12) at UT, and has a 168-93-1 mark over his 22-year career. With 12 wins this season, he secured a 16th consecutive winning season and a 14th straight bowl berth. Brown is the Big 12’s winningest active coach (Division I-A games only) and his string of winning seasons and bowl appearances are the second-longest nationally. Texas enters the Rose Bowl having won three of its last four bowl games and has a 4-3 record in bowl contests under Mack Brown. He is the first Longhorn coach since Darrell Royal, who was 8-7-1 in bowl games, to post a .500 or better record in postseason contests. The back-to-back bowl victories in 2001-02 marked the first time the Horns had won consecutive bowl games since 1968-69. Texas won five straight bowl contests from 1963-69.
CONFERENCE NOTES:
USC is 27-8-2 against Big 12 opponents. The Trojans have won 8 of the last 10 such meetings, most recently beating Oklahoma in the 2005 Orange Bowl BCS Championship Game, 55-19. USC is 5-0 against Big 12 teams in bowl meetings. On the other hand, Texas is 20-11-1 against the Pac-10, most recently falling to Washington State in the 2003 Holiday Bowl, 28-20. The Longhorns are 1-3 against the Pac-10 in the post-season.
GAME NOTES: Texas and USC are meeting for the fifth time with the Trojans leading 4-0. The last meeting came in 1967 when USC won, 17-13. This will also be the third time that the Rose Bowl has hosted an AP-ranked No. 1 versus No. 2 showdown. In the 1963 Rose Bowl, top-ranked USC outlasted No. 2 Wisconsin, 42-37. Then, in the 1969 Rose Bowl, No. 1 Ohio State defeated No. 2 USC, 27-16.
TRENDS
TEXAS:
Texas is 12-0 OVER the total this season.
Texas is 10-2 ATS this season.
Texas is 7-0 ATS against bowl opponents this season.
Texas QB Vince Young is 28-2 SU as a starter in his career.
Texas HC Mack Brown is 1-5 ATS last 6 bowl game at Texas.
Texas is 1-2 as an underdog since 2003.
Texas is 1-6 ATS against pacific 10 opponents.
USC:
USC is 13-4 ATS after playing a home game.
USC Head Coach Pete Carroll is 3-0 ATS last 3 bowl games.
In USC’s 34 game winning streak, only 4 of their wins are by fewer then 7 points.
USC is 6-3 ATS last 9 Rose Bowl appearances.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The favorite is 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS last 11 Rose bowl match-ups.
The underdog is 14-3 last 17 games involving the #1 and #2 teams in the nation.
Analysis
By the time this game kicks off it will undoubtedly be one of the most hyped college football games ever when college football’s only remaining undefeated teams of 2005—top-ranked, 2-time defending national champion USC and No. 2 Texas—meet in the BCS Championship Game in the 2006 Rose Bowl. It’s a match-up for the ages as the Trojans go after a historic national championship three-peat in a game featuring 2 of the nation’s top traditional football powers, the last 2 Rose Bowl winners, the last 2 Rose Bowl MVPs, a pair of Heisman Trophy winners in the same backfield for the first time ever (and a Heisman runnerup on the other sideline), the nation’s top 2 offenses and a pair of the game’s elite head coaches. Not only is the Rose Bowl the “Granddaddy of All Bowl Games,” but it is USC’s home away from home (in fact, the Trojans won a national title the last time they played inthe game). USC is the Rose Bowl’s winningest team, while Texas is making its second straight post-season visit to Pasadena.
The Longhorn’s from Texas University check into this contest having won 19 games in a row, going 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and ranking 3rd in the nation in rushing, 3rd in total offense, and 1st in scoring offense. Indeed, Texas topped 40 points 11 times this season, 50 points 7 times, 60 points 4 times, & 70 points once, leading Colo, 70-3, with 7:36 left in the 3rd quarter. The Texas defense is also solid as well ranking 5th in protecting against the pass, 4th in scoring defense, and 6th in total defense. Texas uses a run-dominated offense with its play calling percentages being 65.8 percent run. Their dynamic QB Vince Young (threw for 2,769 yds with a 26/10 ratio, but also ran for 850 yards averaging 6.3 yards per carry) spends a majority of his time working out of the shotgun, typically with one back to his side, one tight end up front, two receivers to one side and one receiver to the other. This setup is productive for many different reasons, but mainly because it highlights Young's abilities as one of the nation's premier dual-threat quarterback. Young leads a running attack that ranks third in the nation, with 453 rush attempts, 2,807 yards and 6.2 yards per carry, averaging 273.8 yards per game. The powerful Longhorn offensive line has paved the way for sophomore Ramonce Taylor and freshman Jamaal Charles to average 7.9 and 7.3 yards per carry, respectively. The only other rushing offenses that the vulnerable USC defense faced this season that averaged more than 200 yards per contest like the Longhorns, were Washington State and California. They posted the two best rushing averages against USC this season, gaining 5.9 and 5.4 yards per carry, respectively, which give some hope for Longhorn backers.
USC comes into this match-up seeking an unprecedented 3rd straight national title, is on a 34-game winning streak, and ranks 4th in the nation in rushing, 5th in passing, 2nd in scoring, and 1st in total offense, by a stunning 69 yards per game, For all of the talent that the Texas defense can bring to the table, there has not been a better offensive team in the history of the college game than the current Trojan edition, and they simply spread the field too well to be stopped by anyone including the Longhorn’s. What makes this group most difficult to defend is that it can beat you in so many different ways. The Trojans have the nation's fourth-ranked rushing offense and fifth-ranked passing attack. The Trojans operate out of a traditional pro-style offense, employing a two-back, two-receiver, one-tight end personnel grouping as its base package. Their offense is led by one time Heisman trophy winner, (also a finalist this year), QB Matt Leinart (3,450 PYs & a 27/7 TD/INT ratio), is allowed the freedom most NFL QB’s are given in terms of play calling and checking off at the line of scrimmage. To compliment the nation’s 5th best passing attack, USC has at its disposal the NCAA’s most courted athlete since Barry Sanders in this years runaway Heisman winner Reggie Bush. There are no more superlatives that can be given to Trojans running back Reggie Bush, who not only averages an amazing 8.9 yards per rush, but is third on the team with 31 receptions. The Texas defense has no match-up for him, so expect Leinart and Bush to exploit this fundamental match-up disadvantage throughout the game. Bush's running counterpart, LenDale White, is a huge load (similar to Jerome Bettis) but with better speed who averages 6.7 yards per carry and has the brute strength to punish the Longhorns defense. USC will look to establish the ground game early on with RBs Reggie Bush and LenDale White, which will ultimately open up the deadly USC passing attack, so do not be concerned if we see a “conservative” style offense for the first few series. As the game progresses, USC will put in both backs at the same time, and Bush's prowess as a receiver gives the Longhorn’s just one more aspect to worry about in those situations.
On paper, (note that I said on paper...this means “perception”) the Longhorns are better defensively at all three levels and are one of the few teams in the nation “capable” of covering USC’s receivers for an entire game. But those successes have come against a slower, less dynamic offenses in the Big 12 and not against the run and gun type of offense teams from the PAC-10 like to play. Texas might have difficulty matching up to the more modern tactics of other leagues, and while the talent gap may not be all that wide when the USC offense v. Texas defense is on the field, respect should be given to the Longhorn’s on defense as they do possess some individual fundamental match-up advantages when they are on defense. What makes this match-up so intriguing is the size and depth of Texas' defensive line. Most defensive fronts are simply overmatched physically in the trenches against the likes of USC OTs Sam Baker and Winston Justice, OGs Taitusi Lutui and Fred Matua, and OC Ryan Kalil. But Texas' front four of DTs Rodrique Wright and Frank Okam and DEs Brian Robison and Tim Crowder weigh an average of nearly 290 pounds per member. However, (and this is where I interject my opinion) I still do not believe that the Texas pass rush will have any success whatsoever against the underrated offensive line of USC. Indeed, USC’s offensive line has paved the way to 264.2 rushing yards per game while allowing just 14 quarterback sacks in 440 pass attempts, and that’s only one sack ever 31.4 passing attempts! Meanwhile Texas MLB Aaron Harris has been a tackling machine this season. He has the size and strength to hold up physically against the pounding that White delivers and should get the protection he needs from his front four in order to pursue in space. However, neither Harris nor WLB Rashad Bobino has the athleticism to consistently wrap Bush up in space or to cover him one-on-one out of the backfield. That's where Michael Huff and Michael Griffin come into play, and hence the aforementioned USC fundamental match-up advantage. Seeing the USC juggernaut Bush pound the ball play after play will provide a real shock for a defense that is accustomed to making stops, and we may see the same lost look from them that we saw from “elite” Oklahoma defense against this offense 12 months ago. USC meanwhile, does have another fundamental match-up advantage when they decide to air the ball out as the Texas pass defense will be in over their heads against these receivers. The Longhorns will have no clue what they're in for as USC's passing game is concerned, having faced nine pass offenses that rank 66th or worse in the nation. Although, the Longhorns have already seen Texas Tech's nation-leading pass attack and won that game by 35, but that's somewhat misleading defensively, considering the Red Raiders ran 93 plays in that contest and gained 369 passing yards on 42 completions.
USC also has an advantage both situationally, and in the intangible department for this contest. Situationally, this game works out beautifully for USC, as they essentially get to play the national championship game on their home turf. That means fewer distractions, normal practice routine, and a business like approach. USC will not have to deal with the distractions of travel, a new setting, and the excitement of being essentially on a vacation. Considering that USC has played in the national championship games during its past two seasons prior to this year, they come into this contest with the experience and knowledge of what it takes to win in this setting. During those prior campaigns, Pete Carroll and his Trojans have gone up against outstanding squads Iowa, Michigan and Oklahoma and every one of those contests was no contest by halftime. They gave up one first half offensive touchdown in those three games combined, and only two offensive touchdowns until the middle of the fourth quarter. Last year USC destroyed Oklahoma, 55-19, because the much hyped Sooners’ defense had fed off a variety of mundane Big 12 offensive coordinators and QB's and were not prepared for Pete Carroll’s NFL-type game planning and because Carroll knew full well that the Oklahoma passing game was rudimentary at best, and therefore, easy to defend. The bottom line is that the Trojan players and coaches have been through this setting many times in the past, and have not only risen to the occasion but might have possibly saved their best for last each season. The Longhorn history is much different, with only one point spread cover in the last five bowl appearances, none of them played at a pressure level anywhere near this one. By no means am I knocking the Longhorn's they are very good and dangerous and come in with a undefeated record. Although I cannot bring myself to knock the Longhorn's, I will knock their traditionally under performing conference as Big 12 comes into this bowl game with a 6-18 ATS mark against the other elite conferences in bowls the past four seasons. Also, consider that during USC’s 34 game winning streak, only 4 of their wins were by fewer then 7 points and guess what guys...the line is only a TD. What this all mean? Well that means if you bet USC in the past 4 years when the line is the same as the one in this match-up, you will cover this spread 89% of the time. Well I’m sold! Pete Carroll and USC improve to 4-0 ATS with a win and cover here.
Forecast: Texas 21, USC 34
PLAY 2* UNITS ON USC -7
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
2* USC -7
-----------------------------------------------
TEXAS (12 - 0) vs. USC (12 - 0)
Week 15 Wednesday, 1/4/2006 8:00 PM
Rose Bowl (BCS Championship) - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
vs History
USC has a remarkable record in bowl games. The Trojans have the nation’s third highest bowl winning percentage (.651) among the 67 schools that have made at least 10 bowl appearances and USC is just 1 win behind Alabama for most bowl victories, 29 to 28. This game will mark USC's 43rd overall bowl appearances which ranks fourth behind only Alabama (52), Tennessee (45) and Texas (44). USC once won 9 consecutive bowl games (the 1923-30-32-33-39-40-44-45 Rose Bowls and 1924 Christmas Festival); only Florida State has won more in a row (11). USC’s overall post-season record is 28-15. Troy has also appeared in an unprecedented 29 Rose Bowls, where it has a 21-8 mark, winning 8 of it last 10 Rose bowl games. That’s not only the most Rose Bowl wins of any team, but also the most wins by a school in a single bowl. USC has also appeared in 11 other bowls, the Christmas Festival, Liberty Bowl, Bluebonnet Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Aloha Bowl, Florida Citrus Bowl, Sun (John Hancock) Bowl (twice), Freedom Bowl (twice), Cotton Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl and Orange Bowl (twice). Meanwhile, with its invitation to the Rose Bowl, Texas is headed to its eighth straight bowl game and 44th overall bowl appearance. Texas has an all time postseason record of 21-21-2. That’s the third most bowl appearances and tied for eighth most bowl wins among all schools. The Longhorns have won 3 of their past 4 bowls, including a last-second 38-37 win over Michigan in the 2005 Rose Bowl. Texas has been in the Cotton Bowl 22 times and has also appeared in the Sugar, Orange, Bluebonnet, Gator, Sun, Freedom, Fiesta and Holiday Bowls besides the Rose Bowl.
Texas (12-0, 8-0 Big 12 Champions)
Head Coach: Mack Brown (Florida State, 1974)
Career Record: 168-93-1 (22nd year)
Record at Texas: 82-19 (8th year)
USC (12-0, 8-0 Pacific 10 Champions)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (Pacific, 1973)
Career Record: 54-9 (5th year)
Record at USC: 54-9 (5th year)
Texas Leaders:
Rushing: Vince Young (12 G, 136-850 yards, 9 TD)
Passing: Vince Young (12 G, 285-182-10-2,769 yards, 26 TD)
Receiving: David Thomas (12 G, 40-525 yards, 5 TD)
USC Leaders:
Rushing: Reggie Bush (12 G, 187-1,693 yards, 15 TD)
Passing: Matt Leinart (12 G, 391-254-7-3,450 yards, 27 TD)
Receiving: Dwayne Jarrett (12 G, 81-1,153 yards, 15 TD)
TEXAS:
As if the two-time defending national champions need any bulletin-board material, Texas safety Michael Huff proclaimed his team to have the best offense in the country. "USC has probably the second-best offense, compared to our offense, in the nation," Huff said. "It will be a great matchup for us. We just have to line up and play Texas defense, and we'll be fine." USC actually led the nation in total offense with 580.3 yards per game and Texas was third. The Longhorns did lead the country in scoring offense at 50.9 points per game while USC is averaging 50. Texas QB Vince Young, who finished second to USC's Reggie Bush in the Heisman Trophy race, promised before the award ceremony that if he didn't win the award, it would motivate him all the more in the Rose Bowl "to show the world that they made a wrong decision." When asked a few days later whether he would guarantee victory over the Trojans, in Joe Namath fashion, Young said, "Right now, yeah. I'm very confident about it. They come in the game off a high winning streak, and everybody's 'blowing them up,' you know, and they think we're the underdogs and we're not going to come to play. I know that we are."
USC:
USC, which has been AP’s No. 1-ranked team for a national-record 33 consecutive polls, brings in a number of impressive winning streaks: a Pac-10-record 34 overall games, 16 non-conference games and an NCAA record 16 games against AP Top 25 teams (including 7 in a row over AP Top 7 squads).
COACHING NOTES:
Texas’ eighth-year head coach is 82-19 (54-10 Big 12) at UT, and has a 168-93-1 mark over his 22-year career. With 12 wins this season, he secured a 16th consecutive winning season and a 14th straight bowl berth. Brown is the Big 12’s winningest active coach (Division I-A games only) and his string of winning seasons and bowl appearances are the second-longest nationally. Texas enters the Rose Bowl having won three of its last four bowl games and has a 4-3 record in bowl contests under Mack Brown. He is the first Longhorn coach since Darrell Royal, who was 8-7-1 in bowl games, to post a .500 or better record in postseason contests. The back-to-back bowl victories in 2001-02 marked the first time the Horns had won consecutive bowl games since 1968-69. Texas won five straight bowl contests from 1963-69.
CONFERENCE NOTES:
USC is 27-8-2 against Big 12 opponents. The Trojans have won 8 of the last 10 such meetings, most recently beating Oklahoma in the 2005 Orange Bowl BCS Championship Game, 55-19. USC is 5-0 against Big 12 teams in bowl meetings. On the other hand, Texas is 20-11-1 against the Pac-10, most recently falling to Washington State in the 2003 Holiday Bowl, 28-20. The Longhorns are 1-3 against the Pac-10 in the post-season.
GAME NOTES: Texas and USC are meeting for the fifth time with the Trojans leading 4-0. The last meeting came in 1967 when USC won, 17-13. This will also be the third time that the Rose Bowl has hosted an AP-ranked No. 1 versus No. 2 showdown. In the 1963 Rose Bowl, top-ranked USC outlasted No. 2 Wisconsin, 42-37. Then, in the 1969 Rose Bowl, No. 1 Ohio State defeated No. 2 USC, 27-16.
TRENDS
TEXAS:
Texas is 12-0 OVER the total this season.
Texas is 10-2 ATS this season.
Texas is 7-0 ATS against bowl opponents this season.
Texas QB Vince Young is 28-2 SU as a starter in his career.
Texas HC Mack Brown is 1-5 ATS last 6 bowl game at Texas.
Texas is 1-2 as an underdog since 2003.
Texas is 1-6 ATS against pacific 10 opponents.
USC:
USC is 13-4 ATS after playing a home game.
USC Head Coach Pete Carroll is 3-0 ATS last 3 bowl games.
In USC’s 34 game winning streak, only 4 of their wins are by fewer then 7 points.
USC is 6-3 ATS last 9 Rose Bowl appearances.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
The favorite is 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS last 11 Rose bowl match-ups.
The underdog is 14-3 last 17 games involving the #1 and #2 teams in the nation.
Analysis
By the time this game kicks off it will undoubtedly be one of the most hyped college football games ever when college football’s only remaining undefeated teams of 2005—top-ranked, 2-time defending national champion USC and No. 2 Texas—meet in the BCS Championship Game in the 2006 Rose Bowl. It’s a match-up for the ages as the Trojans go after a historic national championship three-peat in a game featuring 2 of the nation’s top traditional football powers, the last 2 Rose Bowl winners, the last 2 Rose Bowl MVPs, a pair of Heisman Trophy winners in the same backfield for the first time ever (and a Heisman runnerup on the other sideline), the nation’s top 2 offenses and a pair of the game’s elite head coaches. Not only is the Rose Bowl the “Granddaddy of All Bowl Games,” but it is USC’s home away from home (in fact, the Trojans won a national title the last time they played inthe game). USC is the Rose Bowl’s winningest team, while Texas is making its second straight post-season visit to Pasadena.
The Longhorn’s from Texas University check into this contest having won 19 games in a row, going 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and ranking 3rd in the nation in rushing, 3rd in total offense, and 1st in scoring offense. Indeed, Texas topped 40 points 11 times this season, 50 points 7 times, 60 points 4 times, & 70 points once, leading Colo, 70-3, with 7:36 left in the 3rd quarter. The Texas defense is also solid as well ranking 5th in protecting against the pass, 4th in scoring defense, and 6th in total defense. Texas uses a run-dominated offense with its play calling percentages being 65.8 percent run. Their dynamic QB Vince Young (threw for 2,769 yds with a 26/10 ratio, but also ran for 850 yards averaging 6.3 yards per carry) spends a majority of his time working out of the shotgun, typically with one back to his side, one tight end up front, two receivers to one side and one receiver to the other. This setup is productive for many different reasons, but mainly because it highlights Young's abilities as one of the nation's premier dual-threat quarterback. Young leads a running attack that ranks third in the nation, with 453 rush attempts, 2,807 yards and 6.2 yards per carry, averaging 273.8 yards per game. The powerful Longhorn offensive line has paved the way for sophomore Ramonce Taylor and freshman Jamaal Charles to average 7.9 and 7.3 yards per carry, respectively. The only other rushing offenses that the vulnerable USC defense faced this season that averaged more than 200 yards per contest like the Longhorns, were Washington State and California. They posted the two best rushing averages against USC this season, gaining 5.9 and 5.4 yards per carry, respectively, which give some hope for Longhorn backers.
USC comes into this match-up seeking an unprecedented 3rd straight national title, is on a 34-game winning streak, and ranks 4th in the nation in rushing, 5th in passing, 2nd in scoring, and 1st in total offense, by a stunning 69 yards per game, For all of the talent that the Texas defense can bring to the table, there has not been a better offensive team in the history of the college game than the current Trojan edition, and they simply spread the field too well to be stopped by anyone including the Longhorn’s. What makes this group most difficult to defend is that it can beat you in so many different ways. The Trojans have the nation's fourth-ranked rushing offense and fifth-ranked passing attack. The Trojans operate out of a traditional pro-style offense, employing a two-back, two-receiver, one-tight end personnel grouping as its base package. Their offense is led by one time Heisman trophy winner, (also a finalist this year), QB Matt Leinart (3,450 PYs & a 27/7 TD/INT ratio), is allowed the freedom most NFL QB’s are given in terms of play calling and checking off at the line of scrimmage. To compliment the nation’s 5th best passing attack, USC has at its disposal the NCAA’s most courted athlete since Barry Sanders in this years runaway Heisman winner Reggie Bush. There are no more superlatives that can be given to Trojans running back Reggie Bush, who not only averages an amazing 8.9 yards per rush, but is third on the team with 31 receptions. The Texas defense has no match-up for him, so expect Leinart and Bush to exploit this fundamental match-up disadvantage throughout the game. Bush's running counterpart, LenDale White, is a huge load (similar to Jerome Bettis) but with better speed who averages 6.7 yards per carry and has the brute strength to punish the Longhorns defense. USC will look to establish the ground game early on with RBs Reggie Bush and LenDale White, which will ultimately open up the deadly USC passing attack, so do not be concerned if we see a “conservative” style offense for the first few series. As the game progresses, USC will put in both backs at the same time, and Bush's prowess as a receiver gives the Longhorn’s just one more aspect to worry about in those situations.
On paper, (note that I said on paper...this means “perception”) the Longhorns are better defensively at all three levels and are one of the few teams in the nation “capable” of covering USC’s receivers for an entire game. But those successes have come against a slower, less dynamic offenses in the Big 12 and not against the run and gun type of offense teams from the PAC-10 like to play. Texas might have difficulty matching up to the more modern tactics of other leagues, and while the talent gap may not be all that wide when the USC offense v. Texas defense is on the field, respect should be given to the Longhorn’s on defense as they do possess some individual fundamental match-up advantages when they are on defense. What makes this match-up so intriguing is the size and depth of Texas' defensive line. Most defensive fronts are simply overmatched physically in the trenches against the likes of USC OTs Sam Baker and Winston Justice, OGs Taitusi Lutui and Fred Matua, and OC Ryan Kalil. But Texas' front four of DTs Rodrique Wright and Frank Okam and DEs Brian Robison and Tim Crowder weigh an average of nearly 290 pounds per member. However, (and this is where I interject my opinion) I still do not believe that the Texas pass rush will have any success whatsoever against the underrated offensive line of USC. Indeed, USC’s offensive line has paved the way to 264.2 rushing yards per game while allowing just 14 quarterback sacks in 440 pass attempts, and that’s only one sack ever 31.4 passing attempts! Meanwhile Texas MLB Aaron Harris has been a tackling machine this season. He has the size and strength to hold up physically against the pounding that White delivers and should get the protection he needs from his front four in order to pursue in space. However, neither Harris nor WLB Rashad Bobino has the athleticism to consistently wrap Bush up in space or to cover him one-on-one out of the backfield. That's where Michael Huff and Michael Griffin come into play, and hence the aforementioned USC fundamental match-up advantage. Seeing the USC juggernaut Bush pound the ball play after play will provide a real shock for a defense that is accustomed to making stops, and we may see the same lost look from them that we saw from “elite” Oklahoma defense against this offense 12 months ago. USC meanwhile, does have another fundamental match-up advantage when they decide to air the ball out as the Texas pass defense will be in over their heads against these receivers. The Longhorns will have no clue what they're in for as USC's passing game is concerned, having faced nine pass offenses that rank 66th or worse in the nation. Although, the Longhorns have already seen Texas Tech's nation-leading pass attack and won that game by 35, but that's somewhat misleading defensively, considering the Red Raiders ran 93 plays in that contest and gained 369 passing yards on 42 completions.
USC also has an advantage both situationally, and in the intangible department for this contest. Situationally, this game works out beautifully for USC, as they essentially get to play the national championship game on their home turf. That means fewer distractions, normal practice routine, and a business like approach. USC will not have to deal with the distractions of travel, a new setting, and the excitement of being essentially on a vacation. Considering that USC has played in the national championship games during its past two seasons prior to this year, they come into this contest with the experience and knowledge of what it takes to win in this setting. During those prior campaigns, Pete Carroll and his Trojans have gone up against outstanding squads Iowa, Michigan and Oklahoma and every one of those contests was no contest by halftime. They gave up one first half offensive touchdown in those three games combined, and only two offensive touchdowns until the middle of the fourth quarter. Last year USC destroyed Oklahoma, 55-19, because the much hyped Sooners’ defense had fed off a variety of mundane Big 12 offensive coordinators and QB's and were not prepared for Pete Carroll’s NFL-type game planning and because Carroll knew full well that the Oklahoma passing game was rudimentary at best, and therefore, easy to defend. The bottom line is that the Trojan players and coaches have been through this setting many times in the past, and have not only risen to the occasion but might have possibly saved their best for last each season. The Longhorn history is much different, with only one point spread cover in the last five bowl appearances, none of them played at a pressure level anywhere near this one. By no means am I knocking the Longhorn's they are very good and dangerous and come in with a undefeated record. Although I cannot bring myself to knock the Longhorn's, I will knock their traditionally under performing conference as Big 12 comes into this bowl game with a 6-18 ATS mark against the other elite conferences in bowls the past four seasons. Also, consider that during USC’s 34 game winning streak, only 4 of their wins were by fewer then 7 points and guess what guys...the line is only a TD. What this all mean? Well that means if you bet USC in the past 4 years when the line is the same as the one in this match-up, you will cover this spread 89% of the time. Well I’m sold! Pete Carroll and USC improve to 4-0 ATS with a win and cover here.
Forecast: Texas 21, USC 34
PLAY 2* UNITS ON USC -7
It's always noon somewhere! 
Single Unit: 10-9 -1.34 units
Comment