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BOOOOM HUGE DAY HITTING THE TOP 4* UNIT BOMB WITH ALABAMA WINNING OUTRIGHT FOLLOWING THAT WITH THE EASY 3* UNIT COVER WITH WEST VIRGINIA ALSO WINNING OUTRIGHT. THATS NOW 5 WINNING DAYS IN A ROW AND THE TOP PLAYS ARE 5-0 LAST FIVE DAYS!
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
3* FLORIDA STATE +10
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FLORIDA ST (8 - 4) vs. PENN ST (10 - 1)
Week 15 Tuesday, 1/3/2006 8:00 PM
Orange Bowl (BCS) - Dolphins Stadium - Miami, FL
vs 
History
The FedEx Orange Bowl will feature a match-up of the two winningest football coaches in Division I-A history with Bobby Bowden and No. 22 Florida State taking on Joe Paterno and No. 3 Penn State. The Orange Bowl will mark Bobby Bowden’s 27th bowl appearance in 30 years at the helm of the Florida State program, Bowden owns a 19-8-1 bowl record, including two appearances while the head coach at West Virginia. The Seminoles own an all-time bowl mark of 19-12-2, while Penn State has amassed an overall bowl record of 23-12-0. Florida State has played in the Orange Bowl seven times (3-4-0) in Bowden’s tenure, winning the national title in 1993, PSU has been victorious in three of four trips to the Orange Bowl with wins following the 1968, 1969 and 1973 campaigns. The school's last trip to the Orange Bowl occurred after the 1985 season, when an undefeated and top-ranked Penn State squad was defeated by No. 2 Oklahoma. Big Ten schools have played in four Orange Bowls, most recently when Iowa challenged USC after the 2002 campaign, and have produced a 2-2 record, including triumphs by Ohio State (1976) and Michigan (1999). FSU is unbeaten in two previous bowl games (1-0-1) against Penn State and Bowden owns the best bowl winning percentage in NCAA history (.696), while Paterno (20) and Bowden are 1-2 in overall bowl wins. This game also marks Penn States first ever BCS bowl appearance.
Florida State (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC Atlantic/T1st)
Head Coach: Bobby Bowden
Career Record: 359-106-4 (40th year)
Record at Florida State: 286-74-4 (30th year)
Penn State (10-1 overall, 7-1 Big Ten/T1st)
Head Coach: Joe Paterno
Career Record: 353-117-3 (40th year)
Record at Penn State: 353-117-3 (40th year)
Florida State Leaders:
Rushing: Lorenzo Booker (112-550 yards, 4 TDs)
Passing: Drew Weatherford (426-252-2,950 yards, 17 TDs)
Receiving: Chris Davis (48-611 yards, 5 TDs) and
Willie Reid (46-579 yards, TD)
Penn State Leaders:
Rushing: Tony Hunt (174-1,047 yards, 6 TDs)
Passing: Michael Robinson (272-141-2,097 yards, 16 TDs)
Receiving: Deon Butler (36-678 yards, 9 TDs)
FLORIDA ST:
FSU senior starting OLB A.J. Nicholson has been suspended and sent home following allegations of a sexual assault at the team hotel in south Florida. Nicholson is the team’s top tackler this season.
PENN ST:
Penn State became the third Big Ten program in the last six years to win a conference crown just one season after placing ninth or worse in the league standings. The Nittany Lions produced a 2-6 record during the 2004 campaign to tie for ninth place, only to improve to a 7-1 mark and a conference title in 2005.
COACHING NOTES:
This contest is one for the "ages" so to speak and pits the two coaches who have the most amount of career wins in college football. Florida State's Bobby Bowden has 359 victories while Penn State'sJoe Paterno has 353. However, all of Paterno's victories have come as head coach of Penn State, while Bowden achieved his first 31 wins at Howard College (now Samford), which did not play major college football at the time. That fact alone has aggravated many of the Penn State faithful who believe Paterno is thus the true leader. JoePa is 6-1 all-time vs. Bowden, who is 19-8-1 all-time in bowl games, the best record in Division I-A history.
GAME NOTES: Penn State has battled Florida State only twice previously and both match-ups occurred in bowl games, the 1967 Gator Bowl (17-17 tie) and the 1990 Blockbuster Bowl (24-17 win by Florida State).
TRENDS
FLORIDA ST:
Florida State HC Bobby Bowden is 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS against Big 10 opponents.
Florida State HC Bobby Bowden is 18-7-1 SU in his last 26 bowl games.
Florida State is 3-11 ATS after playing a conference game.
Florida State is 1-5 ATS last 6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Florida State is 4-6 ATS last 10 bowl games.
PENN ST:
Penn State is 15-7 SU & ATS in bowl games since 1977.
Penn State is 9-1 ATS as a favorite in bowl games since 1977.
Penn State is 8-1 ATS after playing a road game.
Penn State is 7-1 ATS after playing a conference game
Penn State is 17-4-1 SU but only 9-12-1 ATS against teams from the ACC since 1980.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
Florida State is the only team in the nation to appear in a New Years Day (or later) bowl game in each of the last 12 years.
Analysis
The two most successful coaches of all time in Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno will meet for the first time since the 1990 Blockbuster Bowl. The Nittany Lions earned a share of the 2005 Big Ten title and claimed the league's BCS automatic bid based on a victory over Ohio State, while Florida State shocked the world when they defeated Virginia Tech 27-22 in the ACC Title game after being instilled as a double digit underdog. From the start of this preview, I will make it clear that I will be releasing a selection of Florida plus the points so if this preview seems a little one sided I apologize.
To date, my top overall selection overall this season in College football was when Florida State was installed as a double digit +14 underdog against Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game. Time in and time out, the general betting public only looks at the results of previous games when determining who they are going to bet on and the lines maker took advantage of that ignorance and made a killing. As stated above, underestimating FSU proved to be perilous in that situation and will also be perilous in this one. Indeed, Florida State dropped 3 games to unranked opponents this year, which is shocking because Florida State lost to only one unranked foe in the decade of he 1990's. Moreover, Florida State’s HC Bobby Bowden has lost as many games in the last 5 years (19) as he did in the previous 15, and, following 3 straight defeats to end the regular season the oddmaker and the betting public have jumped off the FSU bandwagon. Of course this is where we step in with a big smile on our faces. The criticism of the Florida State program this season has been on the offensive side of the ball especially in their rushing game. Florida State ranks a poor 106th in the land in rushing (43, 49, 47 RYs in 3 of last 4 tilts), while their first year QB Drew Weatherford has thrown as many INTs (17) as TDs (17). But, having followed this program carefully, all season, there is no question the Weatherford improved throughout the season, and lets not forget the quality of competition the has had to face in the Defensive ACC. Despite being just a rookie, Weatherford lead the ACC in total offense (243.8), passing yardage (245.8) and was second in TD passes (17). Weatherford's 2,950 yards passing are also the second-most by a freshman in ACC history. There lack of success on offense can directly be attributed to devastating injuries they suffered in their offensive line this season. No matter how you look at this offensive squad, Florida State is again loaded with NFL caliber players capable of providing big-play production every time they touch the ball. Weatherford is surrounded by a deep corps of explosive natural athletes at the wide receiver position, including Chris Davis, Willie Reid, Greg Carr, De'Cody Fagg and Fred Rouse. Florida State must find a way for RB’s Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker have combined for only 950 rushing yards in 12 games this season to improve on those numbers. They are certainly capable, as that same duo teamed up for 1,838 rushing yards in as many games in 2004. Early reports out of Florida State camp, state that Bowden has been working closely with the offensive line coaches to develop some new wrinkles in the play book to take better advantage of their talented backfield despite a weaken offensive line.
Meanwhile, much of the Penn State kudos came because of how dramatic the turn-around was from the recent subpar seasons, but while the Lions managed to get all the way up to #3 in the polls prior to this match-up, they are far from being the kind of dominating team the public and media is making them out to be. Penn State comes into this contest on a 7-0 ATS run behind the 29th total offense in the nation, rolling up 424 yards per game. Penn State’s dynamic offense is led by explosive quarterback Michael Robinson who tossed 16 touchdown passes and ran for 11 more during the season. He had 2,097 yards passing and was the team's second leading rusher with 785 yards on the ground. RB Tony Hunt has also very quietly compiled 1,047 yards at 6 yards per carry. While this Penn State team is more explosive than previous years, the key to their success has been their defense, which finished 13th against the rush this season. Although PSU posted a 10-1 record, its not all that surprising considering they were handed a favorable schedule that had them playing seven of 11 games at home, and there were only two bowl opponents away, games at Michigan and Northwestern that each went to the final play. Indeed, the Nittany Lions’ season did not include any quality victories outside the Big 10, as their non-conference victories came against South Florida, Cincinnati and Central Michigan.
Granted, PSU is fundamentally sound squad, and they possess a solid defense, but it is one thing for all of those young receivers to make big plays against slower Big 10 defenses, it is another entirely against the quicker more talented athletes on the Seminole defensive unit. Against seven bowl opponents they only gave up an average of 90.9 yards per game on the ground, and when the Lions are not able to find room overland, Michael Robinson has turned out to be just an average passer, especially without Derrick Williams. Florida States defense has the athletes up front to smother Robinson and Hunt on the ground, while also taking Robinson out of his rhythm as a passer. Indeed, the FSU defense has recorded 41 sacks this season and is permitting a paltry 29% conversions on third down. Oh yeah, the Seminoles also stack up favorably on special teams, as their kicking game is solid and their return game is equally dangerous thanks to Reid's explosiveness. Look for an extremely low scoring game and an overwhelming FSU cover.
Forecast: Florida State 17, Penn State 14
PLAY 3* UNITS ON FLORIDA STATE +10
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA BOWL SELECTIONS:
3* FLORIDA STATE +10
-----------------------------------------------
FLORIDA ST (8 - 4) vs. PENN ST (10 - 1)
Week 15 Tuesday, 1/3/2006 8:00 PM
Orange Bowl (BCS) - Dolphins Stadium - Miami, FL
vs History
The FedEx Orange Bowl will feature a match-up of the two winningest football coaches in Division I-A history with Bobby Bowden and No. 22 Florida State taking on Joe Paterno and No. 3 Penn State. The Orange Bowl will mark Bobby Bowden’s 27th bowl appearance in 30 years at the helm of the Florida State program, Bowden owns a 19-8-1 bowl record, including two appearances while the head coach at West Virginia. The Seminoles own an all-time bowl mark of 19-12-2, while Penn State has amassed an overall bowl record of 23-12-0. Florida State has played in the Orange Bowl seven times (3-4-0) in Bowden’s tenure, winning the national title in 1993, PSU has been victorious in three of four trips to the Orange Bowl with wins following the 1968, 1969 and 1973 campaigns. The school's last trip to the Orange Bowl occurred after the 1985 season, when an undefeated and top-ranked Penn State squad was defeated by No. 2 Oklahoma. Big Ten schools have played in four Orange Bowls, most recently when Iowa challenged USC after the 2002 campaign, and have produced a 2-2 record, including triumphs by Ohio State (1976) and Michigan (1999). FSU is unbeaten in two previous bowl games (1-0-1) against Penn State and Bowden owns the best bowl winning percentage in NCAA history (.696), while Paterno (20) and Bowden are 1-2 in overall bowl wins. This game also marks Penn States first ever BCS bowl appearance.
Florida State (8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC Atlantic/T1st)
Head Coach: Bobby Bowden
Career Record: 359-106-4 (40th year)
Record at Florida State: 286-74-4 (30th year)
Penn State (10-1 overall, 7-1 Big Ten/T1st)
Head Coach: Joe Paterno
Career Record: 353-117-3 (40th year)
Record at Penn State: 353-117-3 (40th year)
Florida State Leaders:
Rushing: Lorenzo Booker (112-550 yards, 4 TDs)
Passing: Drew Weatherford (426-252-2,950 yards, 17 TDs)
Receiving: Chris Davis (48-611 yards, 5 TDs) and
Willie Reid (46-579 yards, TD)
Penn State Leaders:
Rushing: Tony Hunt (174-1,047 yards, 6 TDs)
Passing: Michael Robinson (272-141-2,097 yards, 16 TDs)
Receiving: Deon Butler (36-678 yards, 9 TDs)
FLORIDA ST:
FSU senior starting OLB A.J. Nicholson has been suspended and sent home following allegations of a sexual assault at the team hotel in south Florida. Nicholson is the team’s top tackler this season.
PENN ST:
Penn State became the third Big Ten program in the last six years to win a conference crown just one season after placing ninth or worse in the league standings. The Nittany Lions produced a 2-6 record during the 2004 campaign to tie for ninth place, only to improve to a 7-1 mark and a conference title in 2005.
COACHING NOTES:
This contest is one for the "ages" so to speak and pits the two coaches who have the most amount of career wins in college football. Florida State's Bobby Bowden has 359 victories while Penn State'sJoe Paterno has 353. However, all of Paterno's victories have come as head coach of Penn State, while Bowden achieved his first 31 wins at Howard College (now Samford), which did not play major college football at the time. That fact alone has aggravated many of the Penn State faithful who believe Paterno is thus the true leader. JoePa is 6-1 all-time vs. Bowden, who is 19-8-1 all-time in bowl games, the best record in Division I-A history.
GAME NOTES: Penn State has battled Florida State only twice previously and both match-ups occurred in bowl games, the 1967 Gator Bowl (17-17 tie) and the 1990 Blockbuster Bowl (24-17 win by Florida State).
TRENDS
FLORIDA ST:
Florida State HC Bobby Bowden is 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS against Big 10 opponents.
Florida State HC Bobby Bowden is 18-7-1 SU in his last 26 bowl games.
Florida State is 3-11 ATS after playing a conference game.
Florida State is 1-5 ATS last 6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Florida State is 4-6 ATS last 10 bowl games.
PENN ST:
Penn State is 15-7 SU & ATS in bowl games since 1977.
Penn State is 9-1 ATS as a favorite in bowl games since 1977.
Penn State is 8-1 ATS after playing a road game.
Penn State is 7-1 ATS after playing a conference game
Penn State is 17-4-1 SU but only 9-12-1 ATS against teams from the ACC since 1980.
CONFERENCE AND BOWL TRENDS
Florida State is the only team in the nation to appear in a New Years Day (or later) bowl game in each of the last 12 years.
Analysis
The two most successful coaches of all time in Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno will meet for the first time since the 1990 Blockbuster Bowl. The Nittany Lions earned a share of the 2005 Big Ten title and claimed the league's BCS automatic bid based on a victory over Ohio State, while Florida State shocked the world when they defeated Virginia Tech 27-22 in the ACC Title game after being instilled as a double digit underdog. From the start of this preview, I will make it clear that I will be releasing a selection of Florida plus the points so if this preview seems a little one sided I apologize.
To date, my top overall selection overall this season in College football was when Florida State was installed as a double digit +14 underdog against Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game. Time in and time out, the general betting public only looks at the results of previous games when determining who they are going to bet on and the lines maker took advantage of that ignorance and made a killing. As stated above, underestimating FSU proved to be perilous in that situation and will also be perilous in this one. Indeed, Florida State dropped 3 games to unranked opponents this year, which is shocking because Florida State lost to only one unranked foe in the decade of he 1990's. Moreover, Florida State’s HC Bobby Bowden has lost as many games in the last 5 years (19) as he did in the previous 15, and, following 3 straight defeats to end the regular season the oddmaker and the betting public have jumped off the FSU bandwagon. Of course this is where we step in with a big smile on our faces. The criticism of the Florida State program this season has been on the offensive side of the ball especially in their rushing game. Florida State ranks a poor 106th in the land in rushing (43, 49, 47 RYs in 3 of last 4 tilts), while their first year QB Drew Weatherford has thrown as many INTs (17) as TDs (17). But, having followed this program carefully, all season, there is no question the Weatherford improved throughout the season, and lets not forget the quality of competition the has had to face in the Defensive ACC. Despite being just a rookie, Weatherford lead the ACC in total offense (243.8), passing yardage (245.8) and was second in TD passes (17). Weatherford's 2,950 yards passing are also the second-most by a freshman in ACC history. There lack of success on offense can directly be attributed to devastating injuries they suffered in their offensive line this season. No matter how you look at this offensive squad, Florida State is again loaded with NFL caliber players capable of providing big-play production every time they touch the ball. Weatherford is surrounded by a deep corps of explosive natural athletes at the wide receiver position, including Chris Davis, Willie Reid, Greg Carr, De'Cody Fagg and Fred Rouse. Florida State must find a way for RB’s Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker have combined for only 950 rushing yards in 12 games this season to improve on those numbers. They are certainly capable, as that same duo teamed up for 1,838 rushing yards in as many games in 2004. Early reports out of Florida State camp, state that Bowden has been working closely with the offensive line coaches to develop some new wrinkles in the play book to take better advantage of their talented backfield despite a weaken offensive line.
Meanwhile, much of the Penn State kudos came because of how dramatic the turn-around was from the recent subpar seasons, but while the Lions managed to get all the way up to #3 in the polls prior to this match-up, they are far from being the kind of dominating team the public and media is making them out to be. Penn State comes into this contest on a 7-0 ATS run behind the 29th total offense in the nation, rolling up 424 yards per game. Penn State’s dynamic offense is led by explosive quarterback Michael Robinson who tossed 16 touchdown passes and ran for 11 more during the season. He had 2,097 yards passing and was the team's second leading rusher with 785 yards on the ground. RB Tony Hunt has also very quietly compiled 1,047 yards at 6 yards per carry. While this Penn State team is more explosive than previous years, the key to their success has been their defense, which finished 13th against the rush this season. Although PSU posted a 10-1 record, its not all that surprising considering they were handed a favorable schedule that had them playing seven of 11 games at home, and there were only two bowl opponents away, games at Michigan and Northwestern that each went to the final play. Indeed, the Nittany Lions’ season did not include any quality victories outside the Big 10, as their non-conference victories came against South Florida, Cincinnati and Central Michigan.
Granted, PSU is fundamentally sound squad, and they possess a solid defense, but it is one thing for all of those young receivers to make big plays against slower Big 10 defenses, it is another entirely against the quicker more talented athletes on the Seminole defensive unit. Against seven bowl opponents they only gave up an average of 90.9 yards per game on the ground, and when the Lions are not able to find room overland, Michael Robinson has turned out to be just an average passer, especially without Derrick Williams. Florida States defense has the athletes up front to smother Robinson and Hunt on the ground, while also taking Robinson out of his rhythm as a passer. Indeed, the FSU defense has recorded 41 sacks this season and is permitting a paltry 29% conversions on third down. Oh yeah, the Seminoles also stack up favorably on special teams, as their kicking game is solid and their return game is equally dangerous thanks to Reid's explosiveness. Look for an extremely low scoring game and an overwhelming FSU cover.
Forecast: Florida State 17, Penn State 14
PLAY 3* UNITS ON FLORIDA STATE +10
Single Unit: 10-9 -1.34 units
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