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Cotton Bowl Dallas Jan 2
Alabama lost three of its last four bowls (0-4 ATS); this is their first New Year's Bowl in five years. Texas Tech won three bowls in row for first time in school history. I love senior QBs in bowl games, and Bama QB Croyle is a senior who has been through numerous injuries, but is now playing his final game. His dad played for the Tide, so it means more for him. Tech always has a senior QB, it seems, with their prolific pass offense. This is game with a great contrast. I would love Alabama, but they lost two of their best guys (WR Prothro, C Closner), so they struggled at end of the regular season, losing to both LSU and Auburn.
I hope Texas Tech loses because they played two I-AA teams, plus Florida Int'l, a new D-I team; they scored 17,17 in their two losses, and avoided a third loss when officials screwed Sooners in 23-21 Tech win, that ended on Tech TD that was horrible call. Leach's offenses feasts on creating mismatches in secondary and exploiting them. Tech allowed 226 yards per game running ball over last three weeks, so Bama will try to exploit that. Big 12 teams lost four of last six Cotton Bowls, but Tech won its last three bowl games.
I think Alabama is right side in this game, but Tide injuries and recent bowl histories prevent me from picking the Tide. Shula is also 3-10 SU vs ranked teams. Bama plays harder schedule, so that should ehlp, but injuries hurt. Four of last five Tech games stayed under total, as did seven of last eight Alabama games. Higher the score, the better for Texas Tech. I like Tide here.
Outback Bowl Tampa Jan 2
Favorites are 8-4 vs spread in last dozen Outback Bowls, but did not cover last two years; SEC teams won this game six of last 9 years. Iowa pounded Florida 37-17 in this game two years ago, as 3-point dog, but Zook was Gator coach then, while Meyer is now, and thats a big upgrade for Florida. This is first time in five years that Iowa had same QB two years in row; they beat LSU last year on desperation pass at end. Ferentz is highly respected as a coach, so much so that one of the sons of a Florida aide is Hawkeye player.
Iowa is 6-0 this year if it scores 21 or less points, 1-4 if it doesn't; Hawkeyes lost only two games they played that were decided by less than 10 points- they blew game to Northwestern when it had 27-14 lead with 2:00 left. Florida plays good schedule (non-SEC foes were Wyoming/Louisiana Tech/Florida State). Gators scored 49-22-34 points in their last three games. QB Leak is not ideal to run Meyer's spread offense, which hurt Florida this year
This Hawkeye team is not as talented as previous editions, as in last three drafts, 15 Hawkeyes were drafted. Florida's program is on upswing now, but only road game they won this year was vs Georgia team playing without its starting QB. Obviously, Tampa site helps the Gators, but Iowa always travels well, part of why they got this invite instead of Michigan. Five of last seven Iowa games stayed under the total; under is 6-4-1 in Florida games. if I were picking this game, I'd give shaky nod to Iowa.
Gator Bowl Jacksonville Jan 2
Virginia Tech was 8-0, then they lost to Miami, Florida State in their last four games; loss to Seminoles is disturbing, since FSU didn't play so well this year. Lousville didn't exactly face a tough schedule this year; they allowed South Florida 251 yards on the ground, West Virgnia 246; of their other nine opponents, only Rutgers played in bowl game- Louisville crushed them, in game Brohm was injured, but South Florida beat Louisville 45-14 and West Virginia came from way behind to beat them in OT, 46-44.
Louisville lost QB Brohm to broken leg late in season, so they'll be shorthanded on offense. In their last three bowls, Louisville allowed 38,49,40 points to Marshall (twice) and Boise State, so they move way up in class here, vs Virginia Tech team that is in a Florida bowl for first time in four years, and will be hungry to win, having lost last two bowls by FG each. LSU lost the SEC title game and was awesome in a bowl; I expect same effort here by Virginia Tech squad that lost ACC title game, but will not be bullied by Louisville.
Favorites covered eight of last nine Gator Bowls. The Big East, of which Virginia Tech is a former member, is now a less than average league (Rutgers, South Florida lost their bowl games). Overs are cleaning up in bowls so far, but five of last six Virginia Tech games, and last four Louisville games all stayed under. We have a selection on this game in the box below.
Capital One Bowl Orlando Jan 2
Barry Alvarez coaches his final game for Wisconsin team that lost back-to-back games in November, lost a game it scored 48 points in, and won a game when opposing punter dropped good snap in final minute, giving Badgers gift TD. 9-3 Badgers had a good season, but wary of bowl teams who played in Hawai'i, as they've already had their bowl game, so to speak. Underdog is 4-1 vs spread in last five Badger bowls, as Wisconsin is dog for fourth bowl in row, covering as 7, 8-point dogs vs Colorado and Georgia. Badgers covered 13 of their last 18 as an underdog.
Auburn won its last three bowls by 4,14,3 points, allowing total of 36 points in the three wins; they beat Wisconsin 28-14 in the Music City Bowl two years ago, when Tigers were 3.5-pt faves. Tigers have whole new backfield this year, which is why their first road game this year was Oct 15. Auburn covered its last 4 appearances in this bowl (3-1 SU). Tigers did show some holes with their defense late in year, as Kentucky passed for 335 yards Georgia 304; those two teams gained 896 yards on Auburn, but Tigers beat both clubs (44-27/31-30).
SEC teams won three of last four years in this bowl; Badgers are turf team, while SEC is grass league, so edge goes to Auburn in that area. Tuberville did great job replacing his whole backfield from last year, but think spotting Wisconsin team double digits, when Calhoun can really run ball for Badgers, maybe bit much. i would say that Alvarez' Badgers are right side in this game.
Fiesta Bowl Tempe, AZ Jan 2
Underdogs covered three of last four Fiesta Bowl; Ohio State is here for third time in last four years, but with high ticket demand that this game has generated, that isn't an issue. Notre Dame QB Quinn grew up 15 minutes from Horseshoe in Dublin, OH, which adds to the intrigue. Notre Dame hasn't won bowl game since '93, losing seven bowls in row since they won Cotton Bowl over Texas A&M, 24-21. Teams are meeting for just fifth time; OSU waxed Notre Dame twice in the 90's, most recent matchups.
I just thought of this as I was typing this; Maurice Clarett, the former Buckeye running back, is being sought for police in Ohio in a robbery outside a Columbus bar. Will this be a distraction to Buckeyes? I think not, but you never know.
Ohio State won their last three bowls by 7,7,26 points; Buckeyes won six of their last seven non-Florida bowls. Weis is coaching in his first bowl game, while Tressel not only is 6-2 vs Top 10 teams and 3-1 in his last four bowls, he also won four I-AA titles and is very adept at coaching in the big game.
This is the most glamorous of the January 2 bowls. Notre Dame has an offense where all guys came back from last year. Weis is obviously a good coach, but job he did this year is overrated, since a team this experienced woul dhave grown under almost any coach, yes, even Ty Willingham. Anyway, i love Tressel in big games, but think this one could be headed to OT. irish have big WRs, better balance on offense and less distractions. While I want Ohio State to win, am guessing that dog is way to go.
Sugar Bowl Atlanta Jan 2
SEC teams won last four Sugar Bowls, which is usually played in New Orleans, but is in Atlanta this season, which gives UGa fairly large home field edge, since it will be third straight game they've played in Atlanta, second in row on this field. West Va will have lot of fans, because they travel great, but West Va lost 11 of its last 12 bowl games and is 0-3 under Rodriguez in bowls, losing by average of 24 points. They play in an inferior league, but did very well to finish 10-1 this season, losing only 34-17 to Virginia Tech; they would have been ripe for upset at Tampa on Oct 22 vs South Florida, but game was postponed due to issues related to hurricanes. They won the rescheduled game.
Dawgs went 10-2 this season, winning SEC title game on this field; they've won seven of last eight bowls (6-2 vs spread) and covered six of last eight as bowl favorite. Shockley is senior QB whose athletic ability has not been seen by WVa, except when they lost 34-17 to Vick's Hokies. Again, my thought here is that Big East is not worthy of having teams in BCS bowls. I have a selection on this game in the box right below here.
Alabama lost three of its last four bowls (0-4 ATS); this is their first New Year's Bowl in five years. Texas Tech won three bowls in row for first time in school history. I love senior QBs in bowl games, and Bama QB Croyle is a senior who has been through numerous injuries, but is now playing his final game. His dad played for the Tide, so it means more for him. Tech always has a senior QB, it seems, with their prolific pass offense. This is game with a great contrast. I would love Alabama, but they lost two of their best guys (WR Prothro, C Closner), so they struggled at end of the regular season, losing to both LSU and Auburn.
I hope Texas Tech loses because they played two I-AA teams, plus Florida Int'l, a new D-I team; they scored 17,17 in their two losses, and avoided a third loss when officials screwed Sooners in 23-21 Tech win, that ended on Tech TD that was horrible call. Leach's offenses feasts on creating mismatches in secondary and exploiting them. Tech allowed 226 yards per game running ball over last three weeks, so Bama will try to exploit that. Big 12 teams lost four of last six Cotton Bowls, but Tech won its last three bowl games.
I think Alabama is right side in this game, but Tide injuries and recent bowl histories prevent me from picking the Tide. Shula is also 3-10 SU vs ranked teams. Bama plays harder schedule, so that should ehlp, but injuries hurt. Four of last five Tech games stayed under total, as did seven of last eight Alabama games. Higher the score, the better for Texas Tech. I like Tide here.
Outback Bowl Tampa Jan 2
Favorites are 8-4 vs spread in last dozen Outback Bowls, but did not cover last two years; SEC teams won this game six of last 9 years. Iowa pounded Florida 37-17 in this game two years ago, as 3-point dog, but Zook was Gator coach then, while Meyer is now, and thats a big upgrade for Florida. This is first time in five years that Iowa had same QB two years in row; they beat LSU last year on desperation pass at end. Ferentz is highly respected as a coach, so much so that one of the sons of a Florida aide is Hawkeye player.
Iowa is 6-0 this year if it scores 21 or less points, 1-4 if it doesn't; Hawkeyes lost only two games they played that were decided by less than 10 points- they blew game to Northwestern when it had 27-14 lead with 2:00 left. Florida plays good schedule (non-SEC foes were Wyoming/Louisiana Tech/Florida State). Gators scored 49-22-34 points in their last three games. QB Leak is not ideal to run Meyer's spread offense, which hurt Florida this year
This Hawkeye team is not as talented as previous editions, as in last three drafts, 15 Hawkeyes were drafted. Florida's program is on upswing now, but only road game they won this year was vs Georgia team playing without its starting QB. Obviously, Tampa site helps the Gators, but Iowa always travels well, part of why they got this invite instead of Michigan. Five of last seven Iowa games stayed under the total; under is 6-4-1 in Florida games. if I were picking this game, I'd give shaky nod to Iowa.
Gator Bowl Jacksonville Jan 2
Virginia Tech was 8-0, then they lost to Miami, Florida State in their last four games; loss to Seminoles is disturbing, since FSU didn't play so well this year. Lousville didn't exactly face a tough schedule this year; they allowed South Florida 251 yards on the ground, West Virgnia 246; of their other nine opponents, only Rutgers played in bowl game- Louisville crushed them, in game Brohm was injured, but South Florida beat Louisville 45-14 and West Virginia came from way behind to beat them in OT, 46-44.
Louisville lost QB Brohm to broken leg late in season, so they'll be shorthanded on offense. In their last three bowls, Louisville allowed 38,49,40 points to Marshall (twice) and Boise State, so they move way up in class here, vs Virginia Tech team that is in a Florida bowl for first time in four years, and will be hungry to win, having lost last two bowls by FG each. LSU lost the SEC title game and was awesome in a bowl; I expect same effort here by Virginia Tech squad that lost ACC title game, but will not be bullied by Louisville.
Favorites covered eight of last nine Gator Bowls. The Big East, of which Virginia Tech is a former member, is now a less than average league (Rutgers, South Florida lost their bowl games). Overs are cleaning up in bowls so far, but five of last six Virginia Tech games, and last four Louisville games all stayed under. We have a selection on this game in the box below.
Capital One Bowl Orlando Jan 2
Barry Alvarez coaches his final game for Wisconsin team that lost back-to-back games in November, lost a game it scored 48 points in, and won a game when opposing punter dropped good snap in final minute, giving Badgers gift TD. 9-3 Badgers had a good season, but wary of bowl teams who played in Hawai'i, as they've already had their bowl game, so to speak. Underdog is 4-1 vs spread in last five Badger bowls, as Wisconsin is dog for fourth bowl in row, covering as 7, 8-point dogs vs Colorado and Georgia. Badgers covered 13 of their last 18 as an underdog.
Auburn won its last three bowls by 4,14,3 points, allowing total of 36 points in the three wins; they beat Wisconsin 28-14 in the Music City Bowl two years ago, when Tigers were 3.5-pt faves. Tigers have whole new backfield this year, which is why their first road game this year was Oct 15. Auburn covered its last 4 appearances in this bowl (3-1 SU). Tigers did show some holes with their defense late in year, as Kentucky passed for 335 yards Georgia 304; those two teams gained 896 yards on Auburn, but Tigers beat both clubs (44-27/31-30).
SEC teams won three of last four years in this bowl; Badgers are turf team, while SEC is grass league, so edge goes to Auburn in that area. Tuberville did great job replacing his whole backfield from last year, but think spotting Wisconsin team double digits, when Calhoun can really run ball for Badgers, maybe bit much. i would say that Alvarez' Badgers are right side in this game.
Fiesta Bowl Tempe, AZ Jan 2
Underdogs covered three of last four Fiesta Bowl; Ohio State is here for third time in last four years, but with high ticket demand that this game has generated, that isn't an issue. Notre Dame QB Quinn grew up 15 minutes from Horseshoe in Dublin, OH, which adds to the intrigue. Notre Dame hasn't won bowl game since '93, losing seven bowls in row since they won Cotton Bowl over Texas A&M, 24-21. Teams are meeting for just fifth time; OSU waxed Notre Dame twice in the 90's, most recent matchups.
I just thought of this as I was typing this; Maurice Clarett, the former Buckeye running back, is being sought for police in Ohio in a robbery outside a Columbus bar. Will this be a distraction to Buckeyes? I think not, but you never know.
Ohio State won their last three bowls by 7,7,26 points; Buckeyes won six of their last seven non-Florida bowls. Weis is coaching in his first bowl game, while Tressel not only is 6-2 vs Top 10 teams and 3-1 in his last four bowls, he also won four I-AA titles and is very adept at coaching in the big game.
This is the most glamorous of the January 2 bowls. Notre Dame has an offense where all guys came back from last year. Weis is obviously a good coach, but job he did this year is overrated, since a team this experienced woul dhave grown under almost any coach, yes, even Ty Willingham. Anyway, i love Tressel in big games, but think this one could be headed to OT. irish have big WRs, better balance on offense and less distractions. While I want Ohio State to win, am guessing that dog is way to go.
Sugar Bowl Atlanta Jan 2
SEC teams won last four Sugar Bowls, which is usually played in New Orleans, but is in Atlanta this season, which gives UGa fairly large home field edge, since it will be third straight game they've played in Atlanta, second in row on this field. West Va will have lot of fans, because they travel great, but West Va lost 11 of its last 12 bowl games and is 0-3 under Rodriguez in bowls, losing by average of 24 points. They play in an inferior league, but did very well to finish 10-1 this season, losing only 34-17 to Virginia Tech; they would have been ripe for upset at Tampa on Oct 22 vs South Florida, but game was postponed due to issues related to hurricanes. They won the rescheduled game.
Dawgs went 10-2 this season, winning SEC title game on this field; they've won seven of last eight bowls (6-2 vs spread) and covered six of last eight as bowl favorite. Shockley is senior QB whose athletic ability has not been seen by WVa, except when they lost 34-17 to Vick's Hokies. Again, my thought here is that Big East is not worthy of having teams in BCS bowls. I have a selection on this game in the box right below here.
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