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NFL Week 17 analysis
Bills (5-10) @ Jets (3-12)- Problem with trying to develop a young QB is that by time he develops, you might be fired; Malarkey knows his team is 4-3 in Holcomb's starts, 1-7 in Losman's. Bills showed spunk in snapping five-game losing streak at Cincinnati last week, but they scored on kick return, INT return, as Bengals outgained them 374-355. Bills are 1-6 in last seven visits to this site, losing last three by 18,27,2 points. Home side won last five series games. Eight of last 11 Buffalo games went over total; Bills are 1-3 vs spread after a win. Sad week for Jet coach Edwards, who flew to Tampa for funeral Tuesday, even though his team on very short work week for finale of dismal season.
Cardinals (5-10) @ Colts (13-2)-First time these teams have met since '96; Dungy got his head coaching start in Tampa after being Green's DC with Vikings. Long, sad week for Colt team that might play Manning, other starters little more this week, as they look for some sharpness after consecutive losses, with bye next week. Arizona is 0-4 vs spread in game after a win this season; they're 2-5 on road, and 1-8 when they score less than 20 points. Nine of last 13 Arizona games went over total. This whole game hinges on how much Manning plays, although did Sorgi (19 second half points) and subs did surprisingly well at Seattle last week.
Ravens (6-9) @ Browns (5-10)-Baltimore was 6-2 at home this year, but is 0-7 on road. Boller has gone nuts last two weeks (43-61, 532 yards), winning two games by combined score of 78-26, but those games were at home; lets see how Ravens do on road, after two national TV games, in city where they are hated. Ravens won four of last six in their former city, but scored just nine TD's in 83 drives on road this season. Browns struggling with rookie Frye under center, scoring no TDs on 22 drives in last two games. In their last 13 games, Cleveland has started 36 drives 80+ yards from goal line, and has just three FGs to show for it. Pitt humiliated Browns last week, think Cleveland will respond will respond with strong effort vs hated rival.
Panthers (10-5) @ Falcons (8-7)-Panthers need win to clinch playoff spot. Jim Mora Sr says Falcons are very banged up, but Georgia Dome has been House of Horrors for Carolina (1-9 there, losing last seven in row, last two both in OT). Panthers waxed Atlanta 24-6 in first meeting, four weeks ago, as three of 12 Carolina drives started in Falcon territory, helping Panthers to +14 field position edge. Atlanta had emotional OT loss at Tampa last week that KOd them from playoffs; they're 2-5 in last seven games, only 4-3 at home. Carolina won five of last six away games; they're 4-0 after a loss this season, and 7-3-1 vs spread in their last eleven games overall.
Bears (11-4) @ Vikings (8-7)-Home side won last seven series games, as Bears lost last three visits to this site by 18,11,5 points; they won first meeting 28-3 vs Vikings back in Week 6, as three of their four TDs came on drives of less than 50 yards. Minnesota lost last two games after fighting their way back into contention; their coaches are distracted by not knowing their status for '06, but Bears likely to rest anyone with injury issues with bye looming next week. Chicago won 10 of last 11 games (9-2 vs spread), won four of last five on road and won their only other turf game in OT (19-13 at Detroit in Week 8). Eleven of last thirteen Chicago games stayed under total, as Bear offense is just 11 for last 51 on third down.
Bengals (11-4) @ Chiefs (9-6)-If Chargers won Saturday, Chiefs are out of playoff chase; if they lost, and Steelers beat Detroit Sunday, Chiefs are still out, but as emotional as Vermeil is, you know KC will be up for this game, while Bengals may sit guys out to protect them for home playoff game next weekend. In fact, Cincy may prefer losing, to play Jaguars instead of Steelers in first round, but that's just a guess. Home side won five of last six series meetings, with Bengals 1-4 in last five at this site. One red flag for Bengals: In their last two games, Palmer threw four picks; in his first 13 games, he threw total of seven, so passing game needs some work.
Lions (5-10) @ Steelers (10-5)- Pittsburgh won last three games by combined score of 80-12; all they need to do to make playoffs is win this game, vs Detroit team with an interim coach that ended a five-game losing streak last week. Lions covered four of last six as road dog; they do have good defense, but they have just six offensive TDs on last 57 drives. As long as Steelers protect ball, this should not be very close (Lions are 1-8 if they don't win turnover battle). 17-point spread is bit much, based on thought that Pitt has to win this game, while Detroit is 0-3-1 vs spread in game following a win this year.
Dolphins (8-7) @ Patriots (10-5)- Miami won its last five games, beating Chargers in San Diego, so they're league's hottest team, but they've lost four in row at this site, by 7,3,12,14 points, as home side won seven of last nine series games. Patriots are also hot, having won four games in row, allowing only three TDs on opponents' last 38 drives. Fish have 15 TDs on last 66 drives, as Saban has done the unlikely and made Williams a marketable runner once again. In first meeting this year, Pats won 23-16, after trailing 7-3 at half; total yardage in game was 437-365 Miami, as Frerotte was 25-47/360 passing. Under is 5-2 in last seven Patriot games, 6-3 in last nine Dolphin games. Miami covered three of last four as road dog, after dropping first three.
Saints (3-12) @ Buccaneers (10-5)-- Tampa needs win here to win NFC South. Saints' nightmare season is over, as soon as the final gun sounds; they've actually won last three visits to this site, by 6(ot),3,4 points, as home team has lost last five games in this rivalry. Bucs won 10-3 at LSU four weeks ago, in game where Tampa outrushed Saints 133-65. New Orleans lost its last four games, scoring three TDs on last 42 drives, and switch to Bauman hasn't helped much, as Saints kicked FGs on all three red zone trips last week, in last second loss to Lions; they've lost six of seven road games since the Week 1 win at Carolina. Bucs are 5-2 at home; only one of their last eight wins is by more than 10 points (27-13 over Miami, Week 6). Four of last five Buc games, six of last nine Saint games stayed under total.
Titans (4-11) @ Jaguars (11-4)- Jax will have road playoff game next weekend, so not sure how they'll approach this game, with Leftwich on his way back from injury, and Garrard doing good job holding fort. Titans always try hard; they're just not very good, having lost eight of last 10 games and six of seven on road (34-20 at Houston is only road win). In first meeting, 31-28 Jax win in Week 11, neither team ran ball well (63-49, Titans), but Jags had two TD drives of 80+ yards. Jax is 7-1 in last eight games since odd loss at Rams in Week 8; they covered four of last five games, and also have played just one team with winning record in their nine post-bye games (they lost 26-18 at Indy). Over is 7-3-1 in last 11 Jaguar games. Titans won last three visits to this site, are 6-2 in last eight series games overall.
Texans (2-13) @ 49ers (3-12)-Houston clinches first pick in draft with loss here, but they're road favorite. Texan win could set up bizarre five-way tie for last spot; what would happen if both head coaches were under orders to lose? Just asking. Texans, who have bigger needs than RB, have run ball for average of 133.4 yards per game over last five weeks, are 0-7 on road; why are they favored over 49er team that beat Bucs at home? Because that was only game they've won all year, other than sweeping dysfunctional Rams. Over last eight games 49ers have lost field position battle by average of 10 yards; with a rookie QB (7 for 42 on third down in his starts), that is tough to overcome. Five of last seven Houston games went over the total.
Seahawks (13-2) @ Packers (3-12)- Much has changed since last series meeting in '03 playoffs, when Hasselbeck threw INT for TD that put Pack into next round of playoffs, and put Seattle into a funk that they just got out of this fall. Seattle resting at least four defensive starters due to injury, which means you probably won't see Hasselbeck or Alexander after halftime either, on stadium near Mike Holmgren Street. Packers just played pair of national TV games, Seattle was life-and-death at Tennessee two weeks ago when they needed to win, and they didn't exactly crush Colts' subs last week; am guessing Favre can do some damage against Seattle pass defense that was riddled by McNair and his TEs. Under is 7-3 in last ten Packer games.
Redskins (9-6) @ Eagles (6-9)-Washington needs win to make playoffs; they were 4-0 in December, allowing only four TDs on 45 drives, but Brunell has sprained knee and is doubtful here. Doubt Philly gets lot of love at home, losing seven of last nine games, three of last four at home; in their first meeting with Redskins, a 17-10 Washington win in Week 9, Skins outrushed Philly 78-45, averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and scored all their points on three red zone trips, while Philly managed just a FG on two red zone drives, losing their first game in last eight tries vs Redskin team that lost its last three visits to this site by 13,2,22 points. Coles caught TD passes from three different passers last week; Skins scored 10 TDs on their last 23 drives, all vs division foes.
Rams (5-10) @ Cowboys (9-6)- Dallas playing waiting game; if either Panthers or Redskins lost, this game is their season. 11 of 15 Dallas games this year were won by seven or less points, but Rams stopped tackling weeks ago; I mean, 49ers ran ball for 217 yards on them last week, when they hadn't run for more than 133 in any of their previous seven games. Niners are 3-12, and swept Rams, and you think St Louis will compete in this spot? Only factor encouraging strong Ram effort is that game is on national TV, and there will lot of unemployed Rams by end of January, so tryouts are underway. Dallas not exactly storming towards finish line, at 2-3 in last five games, with wins by 3,4 points. Last three Cowboy games all went over, and their pass defense has been sketchy, so it is possible that Holt could add to his impressive numbers here.
Bills (5-10) @ Jets (3-12)- Problem with trying to develop a young QB is that by time he develops, you might be fired; Malarkey knows his team is 4-3 in Holcomb's starts, 1-7 in Losman's. Bills showed spunk in snapping five-game losing streak at Cincinnati last week, but they scored on kick return, INT return, as Bengals outgained them 374-355. Bills are 1-6 in last seven visits to this site, losing last three by 18,27,2 points. Home side won last five series games. Eight of last 11 Buffalo games went over total; Bills are 1-3 vs spread after a win. Sad week for Jet coach Edwards, who flew to Tampa for funeral Tuesday, even though his team on very short work week for finale of dismal season.
Cardinals (5-10) @ Colts (13-2)-First time these teams have met since '96; Dungy got his head coaching start in Tampa after being Green's DC with Vikings. Long, sad week for Colt team that might play Manning, other starters little more this week, as they look for some sharpness after consecutive losses, with bye next week. Arizona is 0-4 vs spread in game after a win this season; they're 2-5 on road, and 1-8 when they score less than 20 points. Nine of last 13 Arizona games went over total. This whole game hinges on how much Manning plays, although did Sorgi (19 second half points) and subs did surprisingly well at Seattle last week.
Ravens (6-9) @ Browns (5-10)-Baltimore was 6-2 at home this year, but is 0-7 on road. Boller has gone nuts last two weeks (43-61, 532 yards), winning two games by combined score of 78-26, but those games were at home; lets see how Ravens do on road, after two national TV games, in city where they are hated. Ravens won four of last six in their former city, but scored just nine TD's in 83 drives on road this season. Browns struggling with rookie Frye under center, scoring no TDs on 22 drives in last two games. In their last 13 games, Cleveland has started 36 drives 80+ yards from goal line, and has just three FGs to show for it. Pitt humiliated Browns last week, think Cleveland will respond will respond with strong effort vs hated rival.
Panthers (10-5) @ Falcons (8-7)-Panthers need win to clinch playoff spot. Jim Mora Sr says Falcons are very banged up, but Georgia Dome has been House of Horrors for Carolina (1-9 there, losing last seven in row, last two both in OT). Panthers waxed Atlanta 24-6 in first meeting, four weeks ago, as three of 12 Carolina drives started in Falcon territory, helping Panthers to +14 field position edge. Atlanta had emotional OT loss at Tampa last week that KOd them from playoffs; they're 2-5 in last seven games, only 4-3 at home. Carolina won five of last six away games; they're 4-0 after a loss this season, and 7-3-1 vs spread in their last eleven games overall.
Bears (11-4) @ Vikings (8-7)-Home side won last seven series games, as Bears lost last three visits to this site by 18,11,5 points; they won first meeting 28-3 vs Vikings back in Week 6, as three of their four TDs came on drives of less than 50 yards. Minnesota lost last two games after fighting their way back into contention; their coaches are distracted by not knowing their status for '06, but Bears likely to rest anyone with injury issues with bye looming next week. Chicago won 10 of last 11 games (9-2 vs spread), won four of last five on road and won their only other turf game in OT (19-13 at Detroit in Week 8). Eleven of last thirteen Chicago games stayed under total, as Bear offense is just 11 for last 51 on third down.
Bengals (11-4) @ Chiefs (9-6)-If Chargers won Saturday, Chiefs are out of playoff chase; if they lost, and Steelers beat Detroit Sunday, Chiefs are still out, but as emotional as Vermeil is, you know KC will be up for this game, while Bengals may sit guys out to protect them for home playoff game next weekend. In fact, Cincy may prefer losing, to play Jaguars instead of Steelers in first round, but that's just a guess. Home side won five of last six series meetings, with Bengals 1-4 in last five at this site. One red flag for Bengals: In their last two games, Palmer threw four picks; in his first 13 games, he threw total of seven, so passing game needs some work.
Lions (5-10) @ Steelers (10-5)- Pittsburgh won last three games by combined score of 80-12; all they need to do to make playoffs is win this game, vs Detroit team with an interim coach that ended a five-game losing streak last week. Lions covered four of last six as road dog; they do have good defense, but they have just six offensive TDs on last 57 drives. As long as Steelers protect ball, this should not be very close (Lions are 1-8 if they don't win turnover battle). 17-point spread is bit much, based on thought that Pitt has to win this game, while Detroit is 0-3-1 vs spread in game following a win this year.
Dolphins (8-7) @ Patriots (10-5)- Miami won its last five games, beating Chargers in San Diego, so they're league's hottest team, but they've lost four in row at this site, by 7,3,12,14 points, as home side won seven of last nine series games. Patriots are also hot, having won four games in row, allowing only three TDs on opponents' last 38 drives. Fish have 15 TDs on last 66 drives, as Saban has done the unlikely and made Williams a marketable runner once again. In first meeting this year, Pats won 23-16, after trailing 7-3 at half; total yardage in game was 437-365 Miami, as Frerotte was 25-47/360 passing. Under is 5-2 in last seven Patriot games, 6-3 in last nine Dolphin games. Miami covered three of last four as road dog, after dropping first three.
Saints (3-12) @ Buccaneers (10-5)-- Tampa needs win here to win NFC South. Saints' nightmare season is over, as soon as the final gun sounds; they've actually won last three visits to this site, by 6(ot),3,4 points, as home team has lost last five games in this rivalry. Bucs won 10-3 at LSU four weeks ago, in game where Tampa outrushed Saints 133-65. New Orleans lost its last four games, scoring three TDs on last 42 drives, and switch to Bauman hasn't helped much, as Saints kicked FGs on all three red zone trips last week, in last second loss to Lions; they've lost six of seven road games since the Week 1 win at Carolina. Bucs are 5-2 at home; only one of their last eight wins is by more than 10 points (27-13 over Miami, Week 6). Four of last five Buc games, six of last nine Saint games stayed under total.
Titans (4-11) @ Jaguars (11-4)- Jax will have road playoff game next weekend, so not sure how they'll approach this game, with Leftwich on his way back from injury, and Garrard doing good job holding fort. Titans always try hard; they're just not very good, having lost eight of last 10 games and six of seven on road (34-20 at Houston is only road win). In first meeting, 31-28 Jax win in Week 11, neither team ran ball well (63-49, Titans), but Jags had two TD drives of 80+ yards. Jax is 7-1 in last eight games since odd loss at Rams in Week 8; they covered four of last five games, and also have played just one team with winning record in their nine post-bye games (they lost 26-18 at Indy). Over is 7-3-1 in last 11 Jaguar games. Titans won last three visits to this site, are 6-2 in last eight series games overall.
Texans (2-13) @ 49ers (3-12)-Houston clinches first pick in draft with loss here, but they're road favorite. Texan win could set up bizarre five-way tie for last spot; what would happen if both head coaches were under orders to lose? Just asking. Texans, who have bigger needs than RB, have run ball for average of 133.4 yards per game over last five weeks, are 0-7 on road; why are they favored over 49er team that beat Bucs at home? Because that was only game they've won all year, other than sweeping dysfunctional Rams. Over last eight games 49ers have lost field position battle by average of 10 yards; with a rookie QB (7 for 42 on third down in his starts), that is tough to overcome. Five of last seven Houston games went over the total.
Seahawks (13-2) @ Packers (3-12)- Much has changed since last series meeting in '03 playoffs, when Hasselbeck threw INT for TD that put Pack into next round of playoffs, and put Seattle into a funk that they just got out of this fall. Seattle resting at least four defensive starters due to injury, which means you probably won't see Hasselbeck or Alexander after halftime either, on stadium near Mike Holmgren Street. Packers just played pair of national TV games, Seattle was life-and-death at Tennessee two weeks ago when they needed to win, and they didn't exactly crush Colts' subs last week; am guessing Favre can do some damage against Seattle pass defense that was riddled by McNair and his TEs. Under is 7-3 in last ten Packer games.
Redskins (9-6) @ Eagles (6-9)-Washington needs win to make playoffs; they were 4-0 in December, allowing only four TDs on 45 drives, but Brunell has sprained knee and is doubtful here. Doubt Philly gets lot of love at home, losing seven of last nine games, three of last four at home; in their first meeting with Redskins, a 17-10 Washington win in Week 9, Skins outrushed Philly 78-45, averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and scored all their points on three red zone trips, while Philly managed just a FG on two red zone drives, losing their first game in last eight tries vs Redskin team that lost its last three visits to this site by 13,2,22 points. Coles caught TD passes from three different passers last week; Skins scored 10 TDs on their last 23 drives, all vs division foes.
Rams (5-10) @ Cowboys (9-6)- Dallas playing waiting game; if either Panthers or Redskins lost, this game is their season. 11 of 15 Dallas games this year were won by seven or less points, but Rams stopped tackling weeks ago; I mean, 49ers ran ball for 217 yards on them last week, when they hadn't run for more than 133 in any of their previous seven games. Niners are 3-12, and swept Rams, and you think St Louis will compete in this spot? Only factor encouraging strong Ram effort is that game is on national TV, and there will lot of unemployed Rams by end of January, so tryouts are underway. Dallas not exactly storming towards finish line, at 2-3 in last five games, with wins by 3,4 points. Last three Cowboy games all went over, and their pass defense has been sketchy, so it is possible that Holt could add to his impressive numbers here.
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